Panic, Ignorance, Shut Up Already

[Boges]

1 hour ago, Marocc said:

Like the regular flu or like slipping in the winter. Mostly harmless, but people are mortal

Except way more deadly and contagious than the flu

Quote

You should stay at home if you're sick.

People don't know if they're contagious for some time before experiencing symptoms, if at all. This virus is sneaky that way. 

Quote

I didn't hear of the ERs closing their doors yet. When the ambulances stop arriving – that's when I worry. I trust God. If I need help but am not helped, it is because it is good for me.

In New York they've sailed a Hospital Ship to the Port of New York to deal with "normal" hospital visit because existing hospitals can't handle it. 

[dialamah]

2 hours ago, Marocc said:

They'd pay me if they didn't treat me and it caused me damage, right?

Uh, no.  Doctors, nurses, facilities could be so overwhelmed with the 3 or 4 percent of serious and critical Covid 19 patients that despite their best efforts and intentions, an injury that you'd normally recover from, you don't. 

No, you don't just get money.  You have to prove negligence on their part, and that may hard to prove in these circumstances.

Medical staff are neither superhuman, nor infallible - if they are exhausted, stressed, overworked, short-staffed, scared, they will make mistakes, people will be sicker than they need to be and some will die.  Minimizing this disease because most people don't die and many barely get sick demonstrates a serious lack of understanding and compassion ... and perhaps this is why:

2 hours ago, Marocc said:

I trust God.

This has nothing to do with God; our behavior directly impacts how well we come out of this and how many people die.  "God" is merely a disinterested and by all evidence, a powerless observer, supposing one exists at all.

[pinky tuscadero]

6 hours ago, Boges said:

Except way more deadly and contagious than the flu

nope

 

this is from the new england journal of medicine dated march 26, 2020, written by the main man himself, dr. fauci:

Quote

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

 

from the cdc in america:

38 000 000 - 54 000 000 seasonal flu illnesses for the current flu season to to day (oct 1, 2019 - march 1, 2020), 

with 400 000 - 730 000 hospitalizations and 24 000 - 62 000 deaths

 

compared with cdc for corona to march 30, 2020:

140 904 illnesses with 2 405 deaths

 

please help me understand how you arrived at your conclusions?

Edited March 31, 2020 by pinky tuscadero

[Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, pinky tuscadero said:

nope

 

this is from the new england journal of medicine dated march 26, 2020, written by the main man himself, dr. fauci:

 

from the cdc in america:

38 000 000 - 54 000 000 seasonal flu illnesses for the current flu season to to day (oct 1, 2019 - march 1, 2020), 

with 400 000 - 730 000 hospitalizations and 24 000 - 62 000 deaths

 

compared with cdc for corona to march 30, 2020:

140 904 illnesses with 2 405 deaths

 

please help me understand how you arrived at your conclusions?

Fauci is estimating 100,00-200,000 C-19 deaths.  I hope he’s wrong.  

[pinky tuscadero]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Fauci is estimating 100,00-200,000 C-19 deaths.  I hope he’s wrong.  

Me too!

 

I just hate that we have given up all we have for projections /estimates/modelling that have never appeared, and should have by this point.

 

The interesting thing about that nejm article i posted is the dichotomy it creates with his on-air narrative for us and his professional narrative for his peers.

Edited March 31, 2020 by pinky tuscadero

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

Fauci is estimating 100,00-200,000 C-19 deaths.  I hope he’s wrong.  

 

Dr. Fauci said that some of the modeling profiles project the possibility for such numbers, but interventions may limit the number of deaths to a lower number.

Seasonal flu deaths in the U.S. and Canada always number in many thousands.

 

 

[Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Dr. Fauci said that some of the modeling profiles project the possibility for such numbers, but interventions may limit the number of deaths to a lower number.

Seasonal flu deaths in the U.S. and Canada always number in many thousands.

 

 

This is different in terms of its higher rate of spread and hospitalization.  The hope is that the measures being taken to stop the spread do the trick.  In Canada Dr. Tam our Chief Public Health Officer says this week will be quite telling.  The measures seem to working in B.C..  Quebec’s numbers are accelerating, but it is testing at the fourth fastest rate in the world.  

Edited March 31, 2020 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

This is different in terms of its higher rate of spread and hospitalization.  The hope is that the measures being taken to stop the spread do the trick.  In Canada Dr. Tam our Chief Public Health Officer says this week will be quite telling.  The measures seem to working in B.C..  Quebec’s numbers are accelerating, but it is testing at the fourth fastest rate in the world.  

 

Yes, it is different and higher, but influenza has been taking a serious toll far above current COVID-19 levels for many, many years.

The explanations about R0 spread and overwhelmed health care systems have already been made several times.....now it is time to see the numbers play out on the ground.    Medical workers are fast becoming critical path regardless of the number of ventilators, respirators, masks, ICU beds, etc. as they become infected or die caring for others.

 

[OftenWrong]

57 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

This is different in terms of its higher rate of spread and hospitalization.

It's also "different" because we are measuring and monitoring the heck out of it compared to any virus before.

[Boges]

7 hours ago, pinky tuscadero said:

nope

 

this is from the new england journal of medicine dated march 26, 2020, written by the main man himself, dr. fauci:

 

from the cdc in america:

38 000 000 - 54 000 000 seasonal flu illnesses for the current flu season to to day (oct 1, 2019 - march 1, 2020), 

with 400 000 - 730 000 hospitalizations and 24 000 - 62 000 deaths

 

compared with cdc for corona to march 30, 2020:

140 904 illnesses with 2 405 deaths

 

please help me understand how you arrived at your conclusions?

That hundreds of people are dying in Italy every day. 

And now Hundreds of people are dying in the US every day and the Healthcare systems are taxed. 

Hospitalization is another consideration for how dangerous this virus is. 

But continue to put your head in the sand. 

BTW your high number of 62,000 deaths is cute. Trump said he'd claim victory if the US could escape this with less than 100,000 deaths. 

[Boges]

Also the taxed healthcare system due to COVID-19 also increases preventable deaths from things like the Seasonal Flu. 

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

Quote

Not that you ought to take influenza lightly. Flu season in the US, which runs from October through May, claims tens of thousands of lives every year. This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, between 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses. Add to that the misery of hundreds of thousands of flu-related hospitalizations and millions of medical visits for flu symptoms this season.

So while the flu has long been considered a dangerous seasonal scourge, new data on the COVID-19 epidemic underscore a frightening fact: COVID-19 is even deadlier.

 

[BubberMiley]

14 hours ago, Boges said:

Except way more deadly and contagious than the flu.

Most concerning is its novel status makes massive simultaneous infection not only possible but difficult to prevent. That's why uninformed people and presidents who downplay the virus are dangerous and should always be challenged.

[Shady]

44 minutes ago, BubberMiley said:

Most concerning is its novel status makes massive simultaneous infection not only possible but difficult to prevent. That's why uninformed people and presidents who downplay the virus are dangerous and should always be challenged.

Yes, including New York's government and members of the mainstream media!

[Shady]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

Also the taxed healthcare system due to COVID-19 also increases preventable deaths from things like the Seasonal Flu. 

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

 

It's true that it's deadlier, but not as deadly as previously thought.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

[Boges]

16 minutes ago, Shady said:

It's true that it's deadlier, but not as deadly as previously thought.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html

The mortality rate isn't the only consideration. I'd argue hospitalization rate is the more important number. 

The more people that need professional healthcare intervention, ICU admittance, a Ventilator etc the more the system gets overwhelmed and then causes a cascading effect that increases the mortality rate. 

In Italy the mortality rate is much higher because the healthcare system can't cope. Which is why the whole "flattening the curve" thing is very important right now. 

Here in Ontario, we have a critical week. It's been about two weeks since shit hit the fan and people were told to stay home in large numbers. So we "should" see a levelling off in new cases once the testing backlog is cleared up. 

If we don't then Social Distancing didn't work as predicted and more extreme steps may need to be taken (ei a Lockdown)

 

[Shady]

1 minute ago, Boges said:

The mortality rate isn't the only consideration. I'd argue hospitalization rate is the more important number. 

The more people that need professional healthcare intervention, ICU admittance, a Ventilator etc the more the system gets overwhelmed and then causes a cascading effect that increases the mortality rate. 

In Italy the mortality rate is much higher because the healthcare system can't cope. Which is why the whole "flattening the curve" thing is very important right now. 

Here in Ontario, we have a critical week. It's been about two weeks since shit hit the fan and people were told to stay home in large numbers. So we "should" see a levelling off in new cases once the testing backlog is cleared up. 

If we don't then Social Distancing didn't work as predicted and more extreme steps may need to be taken (ei a Lockdown)

 

Hospitalization and the mortality rate are higher in Italy because their population is a lot older than other countries, and they have a higher percentage of smokers.

[Rue]

9 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Fauci is estimating 100,00-200,000 C-19 deaths.  I hope he’s wrong.  

Why...what has you so frightened...people die every day of disease...it is a part of life that did not suddenly come about because of this virus...dying from diseases inevitably produce such numbers...you DNA not hide from them or stop them....you also missed the very point of thecrespinse to you...fear of death should not distort the actual objective facts about any disease...

[Boges]

2 minutes ago, Shady said:

Hospitalization and the mortality rate are higher in Italy because their population is a lot older than other countries, and they have a higher percentage of smokers.

Sure it's a mitigating factor. 

But what about Spain? Or the US for that matter? 

They didn't do Social Distancing until it was too late. 

[Boges]

1 minute ago, Rue said:

Why...what has you so frightened...people die every day of disease...it is a part of life that did not suddenly come about because of this virus...dying from diseases inevitably produce such numbers...you DNA not hide from them or stop them....you also missed the very point of thecrespinse to you...fear of death should not distort the actual objective facts about any disease...

Sure people die as a natural part of life. But not the the extent we've seen in countries that have been ravaged by this disease. 

Is it common to not have a big enough morgue for the bodies? Or mass graves like seen in Iran? 

In one New York hospital, they had to bring in a refrigerated truck for the excess bodies. 

Any attempt to normalize this pandemic is dangerous and reckless. This is not normal!

[Shady]

1 minute ago, Boges said:

Sure it's a mitigating factor. 

But what about Spain? Or the US for that matter? 

They didn't do Social Distancing until it was too late. 

Spain has an old population too.  Spain and Italy have much more cases per capita than the United States, but true, social distancing sooner would've helped.  But it's a virus, it's going to spread.  Canada is experiencing a surge in cases now too.  

[Rue]

14 hours ago, dialamah said:

 

This has nothing to do with God; our behavior directly impacts how well we come out of this and how many people die.  "God" is merely a disinterested and by all evidence, a powerless observer, supposing one exists at all.

Our behaviour impacts on the solutions for containment and treatment of diseases but only up to a specific point of capacity...nature has the last say not we humans as much as we think we can control nature....death from disease will always be an inevitable reality with we humans trying to resist it...a little faith then in something other than what we can do as humans might be both wishful thinking and denial but also healthy...

[Boges]

3 minutes ago, Shady said:

Spain has an old population too.  Spain and Italy have much more cases per capita than the United States, but true, social distancing sooner would've helped.  But it's a virus, it's going to spread.  Canada is experiencing a surge in cases now too.  

The surge right now is largely due to a testing backlog. 

So it's largely a snapshot of people that were infected before large scale Social Distancing was encouraged. 

[Boges]

2 minutes ago, Rue said:

Our behaviour impacts on the solutions for containment and treatment of diseases but only up to a specific point of capacity...nature has the last say not we humans as much as we think we can control nature....death from disease will always be an inevitable reality with we humans trying to resist it...a little faith then in something other than what we can do as humans might be both wishful thinking and denial but also healthy...

Nature may, one day, conjure up a disease as contagious as the flu and as deadly as Ebola. Which would decimate Civilization.

COVID-19 is not that, but it seems to be a very insidious disease that spreads by not making everyone sick so populations underestimate it. 

[Rue]

4 minutes ago, Boges said:

Sure it's a mitigating factor. 

But what about Spain? Or the US for that matter? 

They didn't do Social Distancing until it was too late. 

You need to get your facts straight. Population density, age, culture, all factors you have not considered. Next and most important you mix up social distancing with early detection of an illness that is contagious.  Distancing healthy people does not ecessarily reduce transmission of any  disease..we think it reduces the risk because we can not differentiate healthy from non healthy person...if that is the case ..its still the unhealthy person spreading the disease..so the key is in early detection of unhealthy people and practicing hygiene.

Far more deadly viruses have and continud to exist as deadly as the current one. We have not  locked every one down for them...ed instead learned to early detect and treat them and engage in transmission reduction protocols. 

Lock down is an illusion. It buys some time but it can not prevent the eventual and inevitable duration and peak of a virus.

It's not a panacea or cure.

Social distancing is not a panacea particularly where there are people with high concentrations of underlying medical conditions or senior age. 

You can not create a bubble for such people by shutting down life around it.

Blaming deaths on lack of social distancing is simplistic and us based o  the notion you can simply prevent death.  It's a religious doctrinectgat provides a way of behaviour we think will purify and sanctify us from Satan the virus. 

It's not. Thus I agred with Dialamah on her earlier comments but I also caution, social distancing is not as crucial as early testing and proper protocols for not spreading disease. Healthy people taught not to unnecessarily spread disease have to go back to work the same reason they did prior to this virus with other ones once we find out how to identify them.

[Boges]

10 minutes ago, Rue said:

You need to get your facts straight. Population density, age, culture, all factors you have not considered. Next and most important you mix up social distancing with early detection of an illness that is contagious.  Distancing healthy people does not ecessarily reduce transmission of any  disease..we think it reduces the risk because we can not differentiate healthy from non healthy person...if that is the case ..its still the unhealthy person spreading the disease..so the key is in early detection of unhealthy people and practicing hygiene.

Sure if we could test everyone immediately, the ability to determine the "actual" spread of the disease would be much easier. 

But in reality, we can't even seem to test people with symptoms. I think the UK was flirting with a mail-out test. But those measures don't help our current predicament. 

We still don't know who's infected for about a week when symptoms present, if at all. 

Quote

Far more deadly viruses have and continud to exist as deadly as the current one. We have not  locked every one down for them...ed instead learned to early detect and treat them and engage in transmission reduction protocols. 

But not nearly as contagious. SARS was way worse than COVID-19. Mortality rate of 10% plus. But it petered out for some reason. H1N1 was very contagious (I'm pretty sure I got it) but didn't kill many more people than the common flu. 

Quote

 

Lock down is an illusion. It buys some time but it can not prevent the eventual and inevitable duration and peak of a virus.

It's not a panacea or cure.

Social distancing is not a panacea particularly where there are people with high concentrations of underlying medical conditions or senior age. 

You can not create a bubble for such people by shutting down life around it.

Blaming deaths on lack of social distancing is simplistic and us based o  the notion you can simply prevent death.  It's a religious doctrinectgat provides a way of behaviour we think will purify and sanctify us from Satan the virus. 

It's not. Thus I agred with Dialamah on her earlier comments but I also caution, social distancing is not as crucial as early testing and proper protocols for not spreading disease. Healthy people taught not to unnecessarily spread disease have to go back to work the same reason they did prior to this virus with other ones once we find out how to identify them.

 

No where in that inane diatribe did you mention a countries health care system. We're under no illusion that this disease will spread its course and people will die. But if we all get infected at the same time, which seems to have happened in Italy and in New York, healthcare systems can't cope and mortality rates skyrocket. 

Grim decisions have to be made about who lives, dies, or even who qualifies for healthcare (Eg. You get to die in your home because the hospital can't take you). And then bodies pile up, only making the problem worse. 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Boges