Panic, Ignorance, Shut Up Already

[Shady]

4 minutes ago, BubberMiley said:

I criticized them for using rhetoric before evidence of community transmission that was remarkably similar to rhetoric you used after there was community transmission. I had to even teach you what community transmission meant.

 It must take a mind-blowing amount of cognitive dissonance to criticize me for not criticizing other people for saying things that weren't even as dangerous and stupid as what you were saying yesterday.

 

There was plenty of evidence of transmission.  That’s why all of sports shut down.  Your lame excuses and lies don’t work.

[BubberMiley]

2 minutes ago, Shady said:

Well that’s your problem.  You’re relying on data from China.

No, I'm not. The data from China suggests it isn't as deadly or contagious as it has been everywhere else.

[BubberMiley]

2 minutes ago, Shady said:

There was plenty of evidence of transmission.  That’s why all of sports shut down.  Your lame excuses and lies don’t work.

I''ve already explained the timeline for you. Now that you've stopped being an irresponsible sociopath by spreading misinformation intended to sabotage the social isolation effort, I can safely ignore you. But be warned. Say another dangerous lie and you will suffer the wrath of bubber again.

[Shady]

7 minutes ago, BubberMiley said:

No, I'm not. The data from China suggests it isn't as deadly or contagious as it has been everywhere else.

The data doesn't suggest anything, because it's not to be trusted.  You can't take away anything from it.  The mainstream media is just starting to figure that out.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

Their initial data indicated it would be similar to SARS.  Which was a complete lie.

[Shady]

9 minutes ago, BubberMiley said:

I''ve already explained the timeline for you. Now that you've stopped being an irresponsible sociopath by spreading misinformation intended to sabotage the social isolation effort, I can safely ignore you. But be warned. Say another dangerous lie and you will suffer the wrath of bubber again.

I'm not spreading any misinformation.  It's you that's spreading misinformation.  You're bull crap about no evidence of transmission is an out and out lie.  Stop the lying already.  Is it worth it to give the likes of De Blasio a pass?  Really?

Edited April 1, 2020 by Shady

[pinky tuscadero]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

OK, How about Iran, Spain and New York State? are those also anomalies? 

Yes, and it is easily provable.

 

New York state has 83 712 cases 1 941 deaths, compared with a similar population sized Florida 6 741 cases 85 deaths.

Here is the link to all the numbers state by state, it is very easy to see just how far outside the norm New York is.

That, to a critical mind, raises the question of why and in need of further investigation.

 

In Spain there is 15% of doctors and nurse in quarantine and the problem of whole floors in hospitals being unused and unavailable (again leading to many nosocomial infections):

Quote

Eduardo Ulloa: Here, in concrete terms, an entire section is empty and unused. That's 6,500 square feet on three floors, where you could accommodate 200 beds. When we asked for the section to be put into operation, we were told that this was impossible because it would require work. This is an excuse when, at the same time, an emergency hospital with up to 5000 beds is being built at the Ifema exhibition centre, which was never intended as a hospital, where many supply pipes have to be laid for ventilation and other pipes. All of this is available here in the hospital. The empty section belongs to a private company, as the Infanta Sofia is a privately owned project.

 Unused sections and floors are also available in other hospitals in Madrid. Given dantesque scenes, wouldn't it be time to confiscate and equip them to avert collapse, rather than staging a propaganda spectacle like the Ifema fairground? Link

 

Iran currently has 29 084  active cases with 25 213 mild symptoms and 3 871 severe/critical,16.4

compared with 18 509 closed cases and 15 473 recovered and 3 036 dead.

Even assuming a worst case scenario that all current cases that are severe/critical die,

the numbers are improving and a closer look at their criteria and methodology will help, as these are not normal numbers.

Quote

The death rate is currently between 1.5 - 2%. The variation is probably not significant because of the unreliability of the data.  It is importatnt to note that the correlation of death rates to the number of infections is also linked to the number of deaths with the test numbers. Link

 

Just to reinforce the Italian anomaly and even there it is one 'state' with only 16.7% of the population making up the majority of it:

- Lombardy accounts for 63.5% of all deaths in Italy as of March 30, 2020

 

The information is available for anyone, but it takes a little effort.

 

 

[Boges]

2 minutes ago, pinky tuscadero said:

New York state has 83 712 cases 1 941 deaths, compared with a similar population sized Florida 6 741 cases 85 deaths.

Here is the link to all the numbers state by state, it is very easy to see just how far outside the norm New York is.

That, to a critical mind, raises the question of why and in need of further investigation.

It speaks to where they are in the outbreak. Some say the virus appeared in New York much earlier. Regardless Florida finally called a Stay at Home order. 

Even if all these are statistical outliers, it doesn't mean we should stop social distancing. 

Even countries like France, Germany and the UK are struggling to keep up with infects, though they're not as seriously as effected as Italy. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rue]

2 hours ago, BubberMiley said:

No, I'm not. The data from China suggests it isn't as deadly or contagious as it has been everywhere else.

? How does the data show that? What you said makes no logical sense. People have denied from complication of opportunistic infections from getting this virus the same way no matter where they live. The factors are not specific in China; age, pre-existing medical underlying history, population density patterns particularly of elderly people, available hospital beds, level of medical training, types of medical services that are available,  proper diet and access to clean water,  hygiene protocol are the factors that determine rates of death with any disease or virus anywhere.

In fact China has not shown anything we did not already know about pandemic management. If anything South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have shown proper advance planning meant they did not have to depend as heavily on physical distancing the way we are now in Canada. However in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore they practice very proactive hygiene practices including a type of distancing. 

Wet markets in China caused a jump of a virus from contaminated meat to humans. China has been an incubator of such viruses because of its wet markets for many years. The world looked the other way time and time again as viruses developed from birds, pigs, other kinds of contaminated meat and fish and from e coli bacteria caused by the use of human fertilizer for its organic produce.

In fact China statistics show nothing unique to China at all other than that they are the source of this virus outbreak and have been for many more.

China is able to use its totalitarian system and lack of individual rights to be able lock people down easier than in democracies. It now charges any Chinese citizen returning home to stay in hotels to self isolate for two weeks. Its treatments are no different than what we do in Canada.

We can thank it for the virus, its filthy unhygienic wet market incubators of viruses and its sending counterfeit masks. It also has tried to help Spain and Italy and other countries exchanging immunology knowledge it has learned. 

The wet markets are an issue. We have let them become an issue in free trade by letting China be lax about its hygiene practices as its become the no.2 food producer in the entire world.

As well China's government was exposed by its own physicians for  covering  up the virus and lying  about it-whether that has led to needless deaths we do not know. To be fair it could  have been motivated by a belief it did not want to spread panic but it also could have been for unethical reasons. Its probably a bit of both.

Chinese people should be differentiated from their governments when we discuss this issue. Chinese people die no different than us and all governments when you get down to it screw up things the same way then try cover their bumbling asses. Some of it is deliberate, criminal, and has ulterior motives, some of it just inept humans who by nature are imperfect. We forget that. We tend to  forget governments are made up of imperfect humans. We assignment governments far too much power and intelligence. They are simply the net result of the people within them, some highly competent, some average and others just out and out useless idiots.

Having worked in government I have seen all three. My experience is government has as you would expect a  lot of front line workers over-worked and under-staffed because money is re-directed to management levels. Civil service everywhere is bloated with redundant layers of useless management at the expense of proper amounts of front line staff. We like to have an army with too many desk generals and not enough soldiers so to speak.

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Rue

[Rue]

1 hour ago, pinky tuscadero said:

Yes, and it is easily provable.

 

New York state has 83 712 cases 1 941 deaths, compared with a similar population sized Florida 6 741 cases 85 deaths.

Here is the link to all the numbers state by state, it is very easy to see just how far outside the norm New York is.

That, to a critical mind, raises the question of why and in need of further investigation.

 

In Spain there is 15% of doctors and nurse in quarantine and the problem of whole floors in hospitals being unused and unavailable (again leading to many nosocomial infections):

 

Iran currently has 29 084  active cases with 25 213 mild symptoms and 3 871 severe/critical,16.4

compared with 18 509 closed cases and 15 473 recovered and 3 036 dead.

Even assuming a worst case scenario that all current cases that are severe/critical die,

the numbers are improving and a closer look at their criteria and methodology will help, as these are not normal numbers.

 

Just to reinforce the Italian anomaly and even there it is one 'state' with only 16.7% of the population making up the majority of it:

- Lombardy accounts for 63.5% of all deaths in Italy as of March 30, 2020

 

The information is availaAsble for anyone, but it takes a little effort.

 

 

Another excellent post and thank you.  What we can say about New York of course is it has particular clinical characteristics that impact on the rate of virus complications not just for this virus, but any infectious virus and they include:

1-high densities of the aged;

2-high densities of people with underlying medical issues including heart disease, diabetes, cancer, drug addiction, asthma, cpd (lung diseases), lupus, ms md, als, arthritis;

3-high densities of people who smoke and/or breath in polluted air and so have compromised lung capacity;

4-higher levels of stress which in turn creates stress related physical ailments that impair the immunity system as a direct result of exposure to noise, crowding, traffic congestion;

5-higher levels of homeless, mentally ill and impoverished who have malnutrition and so are immune impaired.

All of the above are clinical factors in many large urban centres.

Also keep in mind cultural values. New Yorkers by nature are social and friendly not withstanding their over-crowding. They like their social connections-they thrive on social interaction and that makes them both a vibrant city and more likely to transmit viruses.

Next just the condensation of apartments/condos in specific zones of New York City present infection challenges.

Population pattern and density has much to do with the challenge in New York as it has been in Spain and Italy where high no's live in confined spaces.

What will happen in say Mumbai, New Delhi, Calcutta, we wait to see. We do see in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore with similar but not identical high density populations as New York City, the key difference with them is they had early warning testing protocols and systems in place and more medical supplies, hygiene protocols, and health surveillance response teams in place BEFORE the outbreak-that kind of risk planning as you said will have to be looked at by many cities like New York in the days to come. I think the Singapore model will be of immense help for new York City in future pandemic planning.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Rue

[OftenWrong]

2 hours ago, pinky tuscadero said:

Here, in concrete terms, an entire section is empty and unused.

The same thing is happening in our hospitals here. Every hospital has been asked to reserve space for future coronavirus patients. These spaces had to be taken away from the already cramped hospital infrastructure that's been reduced to absolute minimum extra space for maximum "efficiency", although it accomplished the opposite. Now that space is empty, unused, those services discontinued.

[OftenWrong]

On 3/31/2020 at 1:02 PM, eyeball said:

What isn't different is how much misinformation has played a role in its spread despite more people having access to information than at any time in history.

Which is what makes it worse. Yes misinformation has played a role throughout history since the dawn of man. But today it is so huge. So fast. The misinformation goes around the world in seconds and reaches way more people. The whole lot of you are now under its spell. That's why you're mesmerized chicken shit go wash your hands, it's been more than 5 minutes.

And remember to wipe everything down again and again, and... again

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

Which is what makes it worse. Yes misinformation has played a role throughout history since the dawn of man. But today it is so huge. So fast. The misinformation goes around the world in seconds and reaches way more people. The whole lot of you are now under its spell. That's why you're mesmerized chicken shit go wash your hands, it's been more than 5 minutes.

And remember to wipe everything down again and again, and... again

Hmmm let me guess, you're an overworked janitor right?

[pinky tuscadero]

Interesting thoughts from Karl Deninger over at the Market Ticker (here),

from the get-go we seem incapable of understanding who are the vectors and drop a heavy lead blanket over the non-vectors:

Quote

You want to know how Singapore stopped their health care workers from getting the virus with nearly 100% efficacy and thus removed this vector from the equation?  It wasn't masks or being kitted up in tyvec (entirely impractical for a full shift) -- it was washing their hands before and after each and every contact with a potentially infected person or thing.  Every time.  As soon as they enforced that even if you were chatting with another staffer in a hall without a mask on the infection rate among their health care workers went to a statistical zero.

 

Quote

Oh, want to know when the community transmission rate will start to drop in a given area?  When all the docs, nurses and other medical workers have been infected and either resolved or died.  They then are immune and their spreading of the virus into the community stops.  That, by the way, is why despite the lockdowns, there is no effect for a couple of weeks instead of one viral generation time after the lockdown occurs -- the spreading continues until you run out of vulnerable health care workers who can spread it into the community.

THEN it stops.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by pinky tuscadero

[eyeball]

4 hours ago, pinky tuscadero said:

Interesting thoughts from Karl Deninger over at the Market Ticker (here),

from the get-go we seem incapable of understanding who are the vectors and drop a heavy lead blanket over the non-vectors:

This is why I keep saying one really important thing we need and especially with a sneaky virus like this is a test for anti-bodies so the immune can be employed safely, for everyone's good - it's obvious which sector of the workforce should be first in line for vaccinations.

It's also obvious which direction the vaccine should make its way up the social ladder.  The people at the top can afford distancing longer.

Edited April 2, 2020 by eyeball

[Marocc]

On 3/31/2020 at 2:41 AM, dialamah said:

despite their best efforts and intentions, an injury that you'd normally recover from, you don't. 

I don't mean the hospital. I'm quite certain I would be compensated on one way or another later on as, from the view point of politics, it is always someone's fault if the hospitals are too crowded or there's a shortage of staff etc. They'll spend ages speculating whose fault this and this was and who's the most innocent and who's the most guilty.

On 3/31/2020 at 2:41 AM, dialamah said:

Minimizing this disease

Who's minimizing it and how?

On 3/31/2020 at 2:41 AM, dialamah said:

This has nothing to do with God; our behavior directly impacts how well we come out of this and how many people die.  "God" is merely a disinterested and by all evidence, a powerless observer, supposing one exists at all.

Not much of an argument against the existence of God, but thank you for the input.

On 3/31/2020 at 2:41 AM, dialamah said:

our behavior directly impacts how well we come out of this and how many people die.

I never claimed otherwise — nor does it contradict the existence of God..

[OftenWrong]

13 hours ago, eyeball said:

Hmmm let me guess, you're an overworked janitor right?

I'm an infection control officer. Part janitor and part security. I wipe the door handle 1000 times each day, and am trained to take you down in a full nelson if you don't use the hand sanitizer.

Edited April 2, 2020 by OftenWrong
added image for those who are visual-spatial learning types

[Boges]

17 hours ago, Rue said:

Another excellent post and thank you.  What we can say about New York of course is it has particular clinical characteristics that impact on the rate of virus complications not just for this virus, but any infectious virus and they include:

1-high densities of the aged;

2-high densities of people with underlying medical issues including heart disease, diabetes, cancer, drug addiction, asthma, cpd (lung diseases), lupus, ms md, als, arthritis;

3-high densities of people who smoke and/or breath in polluted air and so have compromised lung capacity;

4-higher levels of stress which in turn creates stress related physical ailments that impair the immunity system as a direct result of exposure to noise, crowding, traffic congestion;

5-higher levels of homeless, mentally ill and impoverished who have malnutrition and so are immune impaired.

All of the above are clinical factors in many large urban centres.

Also keep in mind cultural values. New Yorkers by nature are social and friendly not withstanding their over-crowding. They like their social connections-they thrive on social interaction and that makes them both a vibrant city and more likely to transmit viruses.

Next just the condensation of apartments/condos in specific zones of New York City present infection challenges.

Population pattern and density has much to do with the challenge in New York as it has been in Spain and Italy where high no's live in confined spaces.

What will happen in say Mumbai, New Delhi, Calcutta, we wait to see. We do see in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore with similar but not identical high density populations as New York City, the key difference with them is they had early warning testing protocols and systems in place and more medical supplies, hygiene protocols, and health surveillance response teams in place BEFORE the outbreak-that kind of risk planning as you said will have to be looked at by many cities like New York in the days to come. I think the Singapore model will be of immense help for new York City in future pandemic planning.

You can't call New York, Spain and Italy a statistical outlier because they're full of people and many are old. 

Because that describes a huge swath of the developed world. 

You could say the same about Toronto or Montreal. 

And once this virus spreads to rural areas with lots of old people with a fraction of the medical infrastructure of a big city, you're going to see the death rate spike further. Especially if people insist on going to church. 

[Rue]

2 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

I'm an infection control officer. Part janitor and part security. I wipe the door handle 1000 times each day, and am trained to take you down in a full nelson if you don't use the hand sanitizer.

His elitist comment about overworked janitor ironically for a commie makes him the kind of petit bourgeois the government police will be the first to take out. Regards, Comrade Rue.

p.s. verworked janitors are front line soldiers. ..I salute thee and thank thee and for that reason is  also  why I think Dougie at times is Dr. Strangelove but  is always  read by me each and all words, also Army...people with dirty hands cuz they have handled dirt are who I take solace from.. but mostly j I just give guys like you  a nod. You guys do not like groupies. I get that.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Rue

[Marocc]

9 hours ago, eyeball said:

It's also obvious which direction the vaccine should make its way up the social ladder. 

It'll be at least a year before a vaccine will be available. Those who don't get sick can still spread the virus.

[OftenWrong]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

once this virus spreads to rural areas with lots of old people with a fraction of the medical infrastructure of a big city, you're going to see the death rate spike further. Especially if people insist on going to church. 

Old people are well aware of how vulnerable they are, and that death is imminent. These are the people who need to be most protected in an outbreak. On the other hand if protection brings its own issues, the decision what to do isn't so black-and-white. It is not always wise to try and save life at all costs, when you understand certain realities.

Mental health problems due to virus fear is an issue just beginning to come to our attention. Little old ladies who are scared are hiding at home, don't go out for many weeks hardly at all, stop doing the things they used to do that kept them busy and kept them going. A certain number of them will die earlier.

And so it comes down to quality of life issues. Would you rather isolate for months, upheave everything, enduring loneliness, depression and the impact this has on you, or go to the places you always go, take your chances but use "social distancing" as always, same techniques for flu season every year. Just need to do them consistently and well, but not useless things.

Stores marketing themselves as "clean" now makes virus its own industry.

Cheers

[Rue]

2 hours ago, Boges said:

You can't call New York, Spain and Italy a statistical outlier because they're full of people and many are old. 

Because that describes a huge swath of the developed world. 

You could say the same about Toronto or Montreal. 

And once this virus spreads to rural areas with lots of old people with a fraction of the medical infrastructure of a big city, you're going to see the death rate spike further. Especially if people insist on going to church. 

Yes you do for those very reasons stated  and the remainder of what you said although probable will depend on different variables.

Further to what Often said many older people prior to the virus were already isolated and dying of viruses. This is nothing new to them or marginalized persons or third world citizens.

It's new for people in the suburbs. This phenomena appears novel because it's infiltrated the first world and challenges our affluent lifestyles that we took for granted and now have to change.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Rue

[OftenWrong]

21 hours ago, Rue said:

His elitist comment about overworked janitor ironically for a commie makes him the kind of petit bourgeois the government police will be the first to take out. Regards, Comrade Rude.

He's been rather quiet since then. Probably got the welfare check April 1, now on another week-long bender. Being under quarantine, and all.

Oh well as long as we've still got booze, weed and smokes.

Cheers

[OftenWrong]

The absurdity knows no depth. Hospitals no longer allow visitors to come in, only the patient. Doesn't matter if it's a scared little old lady who wants her son to accompany her during the prognosis, she has to go in alone.

Likewise, scores of visitors are volunteer drivers who bring folks to the hospital, some from long distances. When they arrive after perhaps hour or two of driving, they are not allowed to enter the building. They must wait outside until the patient is finished their treatment. Meantime there are no washrooms available to the public at the hospital entrance. Those drivers must go to the only two public washrooms available. They are outdoor port--potties at city hall. All others in the city shut down.

Note they are not a clean place to go to the washroom. They are dirty and there is no place to even wash your hands afterward.

No public washrooms for people to use. Incidents of public urination/defecation on the rise. Homeless using the toilet in the streets.

These are some more examples of the nonsensical decision making taking place in this knee-jerk reactionary climate.

[eyeball]

2 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

The absurdity knows no depth.

We haven't seen anything yet.  It was almost a couple months ago I remarked that if a communist dictatorship couldn't contain this a libertarian democracy wouldn't have a chance.

That said you'll be happy to note that Florida was well prepared to deny anyone looking forward to free popcorn and beer. 

 

Quote

 

Already anxious about Trump’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state, Republicans now are dealing with thousands of unemployed workers unable to navigate the Florida system to apply for help. And the blowback is directed straight at Trump’s top allies in the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott.

Privately, Republicans admit that the $77.9 million system that is now failing Florida workers is doing exactly what Scott designed it to do — lower the state’s reported number of jobless claims after the great recession.

“It’s a sh-- sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott,” said one DeSantis advisor. “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its-a-sh-sandwich-republicans-rage-as-florida-becomes-a-nightmare-for-trump-1271172

 

 

[eyeball]

On 4/2/2020 at 8:03 AM, OftenWrong said:

Old people are well aware of how vulnerable they are, and that death is imminent. These are the people who need to be most protected in an outbreak. On the other hand if protection brings its own issues, the decision what to do isn't so black-and-white. It is not always wise to try and save life at all costs, when you understand certain realities.