Warning to All MLW Members - Fear and the Cronavirus

[Hussain]

A recession is coming later year as the economy is derailed by the impact of COVID-19 and a plunge in oil prices, economists said Friday.

Royal Bank of Canada forecasts the economy will grow at an annualized pace of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, then contract in the second and third quarters of the year.

RBC is forecasting an annualized decline of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter and 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is considered a recession.

"Key to the near term outlook and the pace of the recovery will be the policy response by governments," RBC said in its report.

"The federal government's plan to provide support measures to mitigate the impact of the virus included upping health care transfers, and increasing unemployment insurance, though both program increases were relatively limited."

CIBC echoed the RBC comments in its own report that Canada is also likely on the brink of a recession.

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Edited March 14, 2020 by Charles Anthony
merged thread; opening post of "Will Covid 19 cause a recession?"

[Shady]

It definitely could cause a recession.  Not because the virus is all that bad, but because of the irrational fear and panic it’s causing.

[CITIZEN_2015]

A slow down is more likely than a recession but it all depends how Canada can contain the spread of virus. If it infects a large number then a recession is certainly a possibility and if gloom and doom side is right and between 35% to 70% of entire population infected then a depression is also likely but for now my bet is on a slow down as I am optimist.

Edited March 13, 2020 by CITIZEN_2015

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada is facing another threat that has to do with commodity prices (e.g. oil) regardless of the pandemic, which only makes it worse.

If the Russians and Saudis continue their war against U.S. shale oil, prices will remain low and hurt Canada's economy.

[mowich]

5 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

As the pressure on hospitals grows, we may to have to look at other places to keep older sick people who can’t take care of themselves at home. 
 

https://www.newstalk.com/news/hotels-used-covid-19-isolation-units-coveney-982303

Bolsonaro’s initial test has apparently come back positive and a second confirmatory test is awaited. If he is positive, what is Trump going to do, given that he met Bolsonaro and a COVID positive aide recently? 

 

But................but that's not what Trump said today.  According to him his 'good friend' is just fine - no worries.

[taxme]

26 minutes ago, Hussain said:

A recession is coming later year as the economy is derailed by the impact of COVID-19 and a plunge in oil prices, economists said Friday.

Royal Bank of Canada forecasts the economy will grow at an annualized pace of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, then contract in the second and third quarters of the year.

RBC is forecasting an annualized decline of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter and 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is considered a recession.

"Key to the near term outlook and the pace of the recovery will be the policy response by governments," RBC said in its report.

"The federal government's plan to provide support measures to mitigate the impact of the virus included upping health care transfers, and increasing unemployment insurance, though both program increases were relatively limited."

CIBC echoed the RBC comments in its own report that Canada is also likely on the brink of a recession.

CHECK MY YOUTUBE VIDEO

 

 

Let all the panic of everything that goes wrong in the world set in. People can be led and told to believe that there is a crisis on it's way and all being relayed to them by the MSM and the doom and gloom people out there who will believe it. Some will become losers while others will become richer because of this virus scare. But whatever happens the sky is not going to fall down on anyone's heads. Although I do believe that there are some fools out there that with enough convincing by the MMS that such a thing may be happening right now and those who are foolish or stupid enough to believe it will run for cover in some cave somewhere.  If there is one thing that I have learned from the media is that never totally believe what they report because most of it is all bull shit. But hey. 

[mowich]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Amazingly, CBC news cuts to Trump's press conference LIVE in Trudeau's travel limit story.

Why would Canadian media spend more attention on Trump ?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-covid-19-1.5496367

The cbc loathe Trump and will take any opportunity to watch him make a fool of himself - they are rarely disappointed which I'm sure brings glee to the hearts of all those virtue-signalling censorious twits in the corp.

[taxme]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Amazingly, CBC news cuts to Trump's press conference LIVE in Trudeau's travel limit story.

Why would Canadian media spend more attention on Trump ?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-covid-19-1.5496367

Because Trump is more interesting to listen to rather than to Trudeau who is actually quite boring to listen too. Everything that comes out of his feminist mouth is mostly all bull shit anyway, and Trudeau's bought off useless media knows that. What Trudeau says nobody really cares. Trump certainly does not care. The Canadian leftist liberal media likes to pretend that they are pro Canada when in fact they are just the opposite. When Trump speaks, the Canadian media are right there to listen too what Trump has to say. It gives the bunch of useless runts something to talk about. 

[bush_cheney2004]

4 minutes ago, taxme said:

.... When Trump speaks, the Canadian media are right there to listen too what Trump has to say. It gives the bunch of useless runts something to talk about. 

 

Usually the CBC labels Trump stories as "World" news, but on more than one occasion it has cut to LIVE feeds from Trump pressers even in Canada based content.   One would think that this undermines Trudeau's relevance and import even further, as if Canadian viewers actually consider Trump's actions and U.S. policies to be more impactful  ("because it affects us").   As a non-Canadian, it is curious to see, but maybe normalized in Canada...for any U.S. president.

American media picked up on Sophie's COVID-19 story, but major U.S. news media does not cut in LIVE for Trudeau press conferences.

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, Shady said:

It definitely could cause a recession.  Not because the virus is all that bad, but because of the irrational fear and panic it’s causing.

-Labour shortages and government shutdowns in China impact supply

-Business-to-business is disrupted because of international impacts which vary over time

-Lower demand, and drastic hits to tourism and other industries

-More debt incurred by governments trying to offer relief.  The US injected $1.5T into a dying market this week and it only made a slight crackling sound as it burned....

[taxme]

1 hour ago, mowich said:

But................but that's not what Trump said today.  According to him his 'good friend' is just fine - no worries.

Another one who believes that the leftist liberal media is telling him the truth. Why cannot anyone see thru this bull shit going on with this virus is beyond me. It certainly looks like 24 hours of brainwashing every minute of every day on propaganda TV is really working.  

 

1 hour ago, mowich said:

But................but that's not what Trump said today.  According to him his 'good friend' is just fine - no worries.

Trump could find a cure for cancer and the lying leftist liberal media will say he stole the cure from Biden. Lol. No matter what Trump says or does, the media must find fault with anything Trump says or does. And there are still people today that cannot see that just maybe the media is spreading lies and bull chit about this virus? 24 hours of non stop news coverage about the virus every minute of every day should have some people thinking. Pretty much shutting down the whole North American continent over some virus makes no sense at all. This has to be a first ever. It's time to get my toilet paper. 

[OftenWrong]

9 minutes ago, taxme said:

It's time to get my toilet paper. 

This town is officially out of TP. Stupid panicking morons went out and bought every single packet. Not even the expensive stuff, like your triple-plies, and such.

Not that we could use that around here anyway, these old toilets always get clogged with that stuff. It has to be two-ply. Nothing at Loblaws. I heard even Shoppers Drug Mart is sold out. Might have to order some online... amazon can get em sent worldwide to your door within the same day.

[taxme]

42 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

This town is officially out of TP. Stupid panicking morons went out and bought every single packet. Not even the expensive stuff, like your triple-plies, and such.

Not that we could use that around here anyway, these old toilets always get clogged with that stuff. It has to be two-ply. Nothing at Loblaws. I heard even Shoppers Drug Mart is sold out. Might have to order some online... amazon can get em sent worldwide to your door within the same day.

So, does anyone here have a family or friend that has gotten the virus yet? Just curious. 

[Shady]

Good news!

[SpankyMcFarland]

My guess would be yes. So many sectors of the economy are being seriously affected. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Converting hotels to hospitals may become a trend:

 

Quote

The Madrid vice president said Friday that the region is in dire need of medical supplies, despite announcing an unprecedented plan to reshuffle the region’s health system that included pooling intensive care units from both public and private hospitals and even considering creating additional hospital rooms in hotels. At least two hotel chains have offered their premises.
 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/spain-to-declare-state-of-emergency-over-virus-outbreak

 

[-TSS-]

I have never before seen people wash their hands as conscientiously as during this week. Too bad it had to take a serious situation like this for them to understand that washing hands at least when you've been to toilet is a good idea. Hopefully they will stick to the habit when this crisis is over.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Israeli scientists may be close to developing a vaccine!!!!!!!

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/scientists-in-israel-likely-to-announce-it-developed-coronavirus-vaccine/articleshow/74592807.cms?from=mdr

If so, then hail to Israel. The Israelis would save so many lives as western scientists all have said that it would take at least a year to have a vaccine for coronavirus. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by CITIZEN_2015

[Yzermandius19]

7 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Why would Canadian media spend more attention on Trump?

Better Ratings.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Yzermandius19

[eyeball]

32 minutes ago, -TSS- said:

I have never before seen people wash their hands as conscientiously as during this week. Too bad it had to take a serious situation like this for them to understand that washing hands at least when you've been to toilet is a good idea. Hopefully they will stick to the habit when this crisis is over.

Further to that we could make people wear cones of shame. They get to take them off once they've learned not to touch their faces.

[Guest ProudConservative]

I hope everyone listened to my advice, and shorted the market last week. You would of made yourself a fair amount of money on 3x or 5x leverage. I shorted Ethereum and just doubled my money!

Now i'm going to wait a month, and buy the crypto dip. I'm not buying untul the price is stable for a few weeks.

I expect stocks to hit bottom in the fall, so don't buy anything until they start mass vaccinations.

You can still short, but be more carefully. The governments are using stimulus right now. I'd wait a few days to short... or until the Stocks drop a bit.

By the way, were not headed for a recession... We're headed for a depression. So put your money in safe places, and don't start buying until the pandemic is over.

The elites are doing a pump and dump collapse... Buy when it's high, and short during the drops!

I expect the Dow to Drop to at least 15000, but could reach as low as 7000 by September.

Edited March 14, 2020 by ProudConservative

[Moonlight Graham]

On 3/11/2020 at 11:06 PM, eyeball said:

If I heard anyone spewing this bullshit around my grandkids they'd have a nice big face full of me to deal with.

A disease that selects for right-wing conservatism is what the world really needs.

And just to be clear the right- wing isn't a race but it's definitely the bane of our species existence.

What is a bane on our existence is a country of 1.4 billion people that eat dog and cat.  If you think that's a dumb stereotype, they have dog meat food festivals:  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/yulin-dog-meat-festival-video-china-blow-torch-animal-cruelty-a8969361.html

Coronavirus apparently originated in a seafood market.  They have dirty, unsanitary, unregulated food practices that started SARS, different bird flu's, and now COVID-19:

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog_meat#China

"The novel coronavirus and the SARS outbreak of 2003 have two things in common: Both are from the coronavirus family, and both most likely started in wet markets.

At such markets, outdoor stalls are squeezed together to form narrow lanes, where locals and visitors shop for cuts of meat and ripe produce. A stall selling caged chickens may abut a butcher counter, where meat is chopped as nearby dogs watch hungrily. Some vendors hock hares, while seafood stalls display glistening fish and shrimp.

Wet markets put people and live and dead animals — dogs, chickens, pigs, snakes, civets, and more — in constant close contact. That makes it easy for zoonotic diseases to jump from animals to humans.

"Poorly regulated, live-animal markets mixed with illegal wildlife trade offer a unique opportunity for viruses to spill over from wildlife hosts into the human population," the Wildlife Conservation Society said in a statement.

In the case of SARS and the new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, bats were the original hosts. The bats then infected other animals, which transmitted the disease to humans."

[Rue]

14 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

This town is officially out of TP. Stupid panicking morons went out and bought every single packet. Not even the expensive stuff, like your triple-plies, and such.

Not that we could use that around here anyway, these old toilets always get clogged with that stuff. It has to be two-ply. Nothing at Loblaws. I heard even Shoppers Drug Mart is sold out. Might have to order some online... amazon can get em sent worldwide to your door within the same day.

I am never surprised by stupid hysterical homo sapiens. Its why I prefer dogs. Hell even  sheep have more sense.

Bottom line is there is no shortage of paper products and the shelves will restocked soon. Its past stupid.

[Rue]

16 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

A slow down is more likely than a recession but it all depends how Canada can contain the spread of virus. If it infects a large number then a recession is certainly a possibility and if gloom and doom side is right and between 35% to 70% of entire population infected then a depression is also likely but for now my bet is on a slow down as I am optimist.

As Shady said stupidity is the problem. If there is a slow down which now appears inevitable there will also be a rebound effect. Usually in the first month or so of such issues people act irrationally then calm down when reality hits in that hoarding toilet paper won't protect the Angel of Death from flying overhead and they should have smeared lamb's blood on their front door if you know what I mean.

Oh for sure all business across the board will feel an impact. Hell I face not working without pay now for at least what 3 weeks.....no problem though..I will eat my toilet paper.

On a more serious note as people know your intimate ties to Iran, we know that country was hit heavy and I hate to say such a negative thing but if it wipes out the damn idiots running the country good. Anyways seriously I know you were already worried and rightfully so about human rights and freedom in Iran then the virus. I just am one of those people who does not panic and uses common sense. I won't run out and buy toilet paper or stock up on  stupidity. Food supplies and logistics are fine. Canada is full of affluent people who have never had a real crisis to face so things like this seem monumental. I was in a clinic with a cholera outbreak. Now that man, is something to see how fast it kills.

In any event I am grouchy these days from all the dumb panic but I would say to you as I have said to so many students, the virus will not kill. Its a mild virus. Its only a problem for immune deficient people as any flu would have been. Its a mild like flu. People need to get a grip on their reality and understand the very cell phone full of their own germs is what is spreading the virus not just on the surface of the screen but in the sheer volume of stupidity going across the internet.

[Shady]

14 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

-Labour shortages and government shutdowns in China impact supply

-Business-to-business is disrupted because of international impacts which vary over time

-Lower demand, and drastic hits to tourism and other industries

-More debt incurred by governments trying to offer relief.  The US injected $1.5T into a dying market this week and it only made a slight crackling sound as it burned....

I don’t think a country of over a billion people is going to have issues with labour shortages.  But I agree with the other points.  And the last point is a great example of why our government should be running balanced budgets in relatively good economic times, so that when it becomes necessary, we can run a large temporary deficit without any significant negative impact to the budget.  It’s why Trudeau’s decision to purposely run big deficits since he took office was so dumb and short sighted.