If Putin attacks NATO

[myata]

Some background:

First, in the late 2021, before his invasion, Putin did not threaten Ukraine: his threats were addressed to NATO. A fact.

For months now, the EU package of military aid to Ukraine has been in negotiations due to the position of some members.

A similar bill in the U.S. has been blocked since late November, 2023.

Several incidents of Russian aircraft and missiles over NATO territory were recorded, without any immediate consequences.

Next, a question: why would an aggressive, brutal bully attack a victim they perceive as weak, that would not put up serious resistance? Answer: because they can. Because it would strengthen their power and a position among bandit peers. Because they could rob victim's property and resources. Because they could recruit or force victim's population into their armies or use it as slaves. So many good, worthy reasons.

These by the way were the reasons that prompted Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

But what would happen if he wouldn't stop there?

NATO added a couple of battalions to "strengthen" its Eastern frontier and a handful of tanks. Putin prepares a 200,000 strong cannon fodder army and 10,000 post-WWII tanks (Ukraine now ties over 400,000. Just think where they could be going next). He showers the place over with hundreds or thousands of outdated but still functional artillery units. Would the frontier hold?

NATO would have a definite advantage in the air. But would it be enough to change the situation on the ground? One would need the will and the order to go for personnel concentration, logistics, transportation networks and centers, command and control centers deep inside Russia's territory: something NATO's been reluctant and terrified of even thinking about so far. Fighting this enemy with a hand and a leg tied? The result is pretty much predetermined. The territory, lost.

Next we would try to assemble a force to drive the enemy out. But now, thanks to the experiences and in Syria, Ukraine and by Hamas they have an effective antidote: swarm the place with thousands of their cannon fodder. Take entire cities and even countries as hostages. You want to attack enemy troops concentrations? Scores, thousands of civilians - your Union's citizens would perish. Will you have the resolve and stamina? And what if not?

The war drags on indefinitely: do you have the resources? The resolve and determination, the endurance and the will? Or you run out of steam and go for some superficial "settlement", to let you pretend business as usual only for a little longer. The alliance is eroded: some exit and make separate arrangements with the dictators. Others, sit on the fence. A few would fight still. But the outcome would be far less certain than today.

Former allies are locked: some in their small islands, others in the corner of a remote continent. How long would those Elven heavens last before the dark tide covers them too and washes away?

Note: all of the above has moved from the dark post-apocalypse literature to remote possibility to quite possible and technical in a matter of a few years. The problem is not in the concept anymore as only a couple of happy decades back, but in time and some technical detail. Would "let it go and just dance" help to send it away this time around?

Now is our best chance for bold decisions and necessary acts we will have for a long time: until this new cloud clears away. It should be so easy to get. To who though? An ancient grandpa in his tall chair who could no longer tell the difference between his infinitely wise sermons and the reality? Or to a loud bottomless throat without any brain or morals attached? Last time we had the judgment, the resolve and the leaders and now?

[Perspektiv]

5 hours ago, myata said:

Last time we had the judgment, the resolve and the leaders and now?

War now? We'd be screwed.

We are as divided as a country could get. 

Putin could smell this weakness, and many others who are challenging the global standing of NATO and non NATO allies as boldly as we have seen.

[TreeBeard]

54 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

We are as divided as a country could get. 

How many Canadians (outside this forum) are pro-Putin?

[Michael Hardner]

3 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

How many Canadians (outside this forum) are pro-Putin?

Answers:

PEW July 2023: 85% of Canadians have no confidence in Putin doing the right thing in world affairs
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/10/large-shares-see-russia-and-putin-in-negative-light-while-views-of-zelensky-more-mixed/

Cambridge Today Dec 2023: 60% of Canadians approve NATO involvement, including Canadians, in Ukraine
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/10/large-shares-see-russia-and-putin-in-negative-light-while-views-of-zelensky-more-mixed/

City March 2022: 90% support common front against Russia
https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/03/02/poll-canadians-support-ukraine/

We're not divided on some things, it seems.  Of course, I didn't spit out an opinion on this without researching the question first so I'm outside the norm...

[Perspektiv]

1 hour ago, TreeBeard said:

How many Canadians (outside this forum) are pro-Putin?

Not sure. I definitely am not, but I can understand his ambitions even though I don't agree with them. 

[Nationalist]

19 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

How many Canadians (outside this forum) are pro-Putin?

Probably very few are actually "pro-Putin". A lot though, see the conflict and know Ukraine can't win.

I know you try to categorize such people as "pro-Putin", but unless you're a complete simpleton, you know that's just a lie to shame clear thinking people.

However, if Russia were to attack NATO, we'd all probably die. So would they. It's a no-win proposal so...I seriously doubt Russia will be attacking anyone in NATO. I would not, however,  bet against the USA attacking Russia. Especially if Biden or Haley are in power.

Edited January 12 by Nationalist

[Aristides]

6 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Probably very few are actually "pro-Putin". A lot though, see the conflict and know Ukraine can't win.

I know you try to categorize such people as "pro-Putin", but unless you're a complete simpleton, you know that's just a lie to shame clear thinking people.

However, if Russia were to attack NATO, we'd all probably die. So would they. It's a no-win proposal so...I seriously doubt Russia will be attacking anyone in NATO. I would not, however,  bet against the USA attacking Russia. Especially if Biden or Haley are in power.

For Ukraine, surviving is winning. That is something to support.

The US will not attack Russia unless it is attacked. There is nothing in the NATO charter that commits members to an offensive war started by another member.

[Nationalist]

30 minutes ago, Aristides said:

For Ukraine, surviving is winning. That is something to support.

The US will not attack Russia unless it is attacked. There is nothing in the NATO charter that commits members to an offensive war started by another member.

Well then we are all safe and sound...sort of.

I have wanted Ukrainians to survive all along. That survival could have been achieved but...well...you know...Johnson.

Meh...wholesale death turns some people on I suppose.

[myata]

On 1/12/2024 at 3:44 PM, Nationalist said:

I have wanted Ukrainians to survive all along. That survival could have been achieved but...well...you know..

Replace Ukraine with Poland. And Putin with Hitler. All the same arguments, ad stupid infinitum. Some just never learn.

[Nationalist]

19 minutes ago, myata said:

Replace Ukraine with Poland. And Putin with Hitler. All the same arguments, ad stupid infinitum. Some just never learn.

Dude...that was a century ago. Hitler is dead. Get in this century. 

[myata]

The wisdom has spoken: make the same choice over and again, just wait some, et voila: a miracle. Ohoh. Some just cannot learn.

Edited January 14 by myata

[Nationalist]

17 minutes ago, myata said:

The wisdom has spoken: make the same choice over and again, just wait some, et voila: a miracle. Ohoh. Some just cannot learn.

Wisdom? To drag the world into a world War because you remember a dead guy?

That's not wisdom. That's stupid.

[Aristides]

On 1/12/2024 at 2:44 PM, Nationalist said:

Well then we are all safe and sound...sort of.

I have wanted Ukrainians to survive all along. That survival could have been achieved but...well...you know...Johnson.

Meh...wholesale death turns some people on I suppose.

Ya, I know. By surrendering.

[myata]

5 hours ago, Nationalist said:

To drag the world into a world War because you remember a dead guy?

To give in and cower before Hitlers of today in order to avoid it. The wisdom. Because Hitlers will stop once they get a small bit and smell a bit of blood. Like they always did, look.

The f@king coward brainless too, "wisdom". Some will never learn.

[Nationalist]

23 hours ago, myata said:

To give in and cower before Hitlers of today in order to avoid it. The wisdom. Because Hitlers will stop once they get a small bit and smell a bit of blood. Like they always did, look.

The f@king coward brainless too, "wisdom". Some will never learn.

Ya except...and this is indisputable...Hitler is DEAD!

If you're so scared of Putin, go fight.

No? Rather watch Ukrainians fight your battles for you?

Meh...you're nothing but a coward then.

[OftenWrong]

23 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Ya except...and this is indisputable...Hitler is DEAD!

If you're so scared of Putin, go fight.

No? Rather watch Ukrainians fight your battles for you?

Meh...you're nothing but a coward then.

The poor fellow only sees Hitler wherever he goes... we are all Hitlers now. Or at least 'little Eichmanns', perhaps. 

And that's what I'm talking about. It's a reference to Sept 11.

Once you understand the big picture you start to see that the West is also run by brutal thugs, and some of them are elected. We the people support our right to defend ourselves, which to some people also means our right to blow the hell out of peasants with bandy-legs, in order to assert regional supremacy.

And that's how little Hitlers gets made.

So there's another faction, just like in the US during both world wars. Who the hell are we to tell other people how to solve their regional problems? Why should we jump in and spend our money and lives on their tangled weave, which they created for themselves?

That's also part of US exceptionalism.

"US boys should not fight in a war, that Asian boys should be fighting, for THEMSELVES".

But then there needs to be a time when you do step in, whenever it reaches a level it could affect you. That's why the US did eventually enter the war, though perhaps unwillingly. In delaying entry and finishing off the Huns, USA became the top superpower.

Which is why Trump is against them diving in and involving themselves. The US should not need to. Not obligated to.

Democrats played the opposite and have now exhausted the funding. The well is dry, sorry folks. Now the Ukraine can go up the river Jordan.

....

"Checkmate" - Vlad Putin

[myata]

3 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

"Checkmate" - Vlad Putin

Another admirer of a psychotic dictator thug. "Genius". "Very honorable person".

What' s wrong with today's "conservatives"? And where (would) will it take them?

Edited January 15 by myata

[Nationalist]

3 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

The poor fellow only sees Hitler wherever he goes... we are all Hitlers now. Or at least 'little Eichmanns', perhaps. 

And that's what I'm talking about. It's a reference to Sept 11.

Once you understand the big picture you start to see that the West is also run by brutal thugs, and some of them are elected. We the people support our right to defend ourselves, which to some people also means our right to blow the hell out of peasants with bandy-legs, in order to assert regional supremacy.

And that's how little Hitlers gets made.

So there's another faction, just like in the US during both world wars. Who the hell are we to tell other people how to solve their regional problems? Why should we jump in and spend our money and lives on their tangled weave, which they created for themselves?

That's also part of US exceptionalism.

"US boys should not fight in a war, that Asian boys should be fighting, for THEMSELVES".

But then there needs to be a time when you do step in, whenever it reaches a level it could affect you. That's why the US did eventually enter the war, though perhaps unwillingly. In delaying entry and finishing off the Huns, USA became the top superpower.

Which is why Trump is against them diving in and involving themselves. The US should not need to. Not obligated to.

Democrats played the opposite and have now exhausted the funding. The well is dry, sorry folks. Now the Ukraine can go up the river Jordan.

....

"Checkmate" - Vlad Putin

Checkmate indeed. Although...this was over before it ever started.

3 hours ago, myata said:

Another admirer of a psychotic dictator thug. "Genius". "Very honorable person".

What' s wrong with today's "conservatives"? And where (would) will it take them?

Who called Putin a genius or a very honourable person?

Are you lying again?

[myata]

6 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Are you lying again?

No, just someone being ignorant. Again. What a coincidence.

Edited January 15 by myata

[Moonbox]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:08 AM, OftenWrong said:

So there's another faction, just like in the US during both world wars. Who the hell are we to tell other people how to solve their regional problems? Why should we jump in and spend our money and lives on their tangled weave, which they created for themselves?

Ah, a "student of history" I see.  

You're talking about that wonderfully myopic faction in the US that tried to ignore naked aggression and pretend they were just "regional problems", as they predictably became continent spanning problems and then global problems, all the way up until they rolled on to their doorstep.  🙄

On 1/15/2024 at 9:08 AM, OftenWrong said:

"Checkmate" - Vlad Putin

Yeah big-brain Putin faceplanted his peasant army into an impoverished nation 1/4 of Russia's population, in an invasion that was expected to take a few week, that has now gone 2 years and for which he has almost nothing to show.  

"ChEcKmAtE!"  🙃

[OftenWrong]

19 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Ah, a "student of history" I see.  

You're talking about that wonderfully myopic faction in the US that tried to ignore naked aggression and pretend they were just "regional problems", as they predictably became continent spanning problems and then global problems, all the way up until they rolled on to their doorstep.  🙄

Yeah big-brain Putin faceplanted his peasant army into an impoverished nation 1/4 of Russia's population, in an invasion that was expected to take a few week, that has now gone 2 years and for which he has almost nothing to show.  

"ChEcKmAtE!"  🙃

Yep, behold history. Read about how yankee doodle is now choking on the cost and not interested in another multi-billion transfer. I guess even freedom, liberty and democracy has a price.

Sorry, dead Uke's. We was only kidding...   🤪

[BeaverFever]

Russia’s GDP is smaller than Canada’s. Their military is corrupt and incompetent and their soldiers are dying by the tens of thousands in Ukraine. Putin has to keep one eye over his shoulder on his own Oligarchs and warlords and worry about potential breakaway republics in places like Chechnya if his military is tied up for too long in a costly conflict and he’s perceived as to weak to counter their moves

In short he would never attack NATO directly.  If he did it would come from some indirect proxy like Wagner or some ragtag militia like the one he raise ld in Eastern Ukraine or possibly a puppet state like Belarus or Serbia. . 

[OftenWrong]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:19 AM, myata said:

Another admirer of a psychotic dictator thug. "Genius". "Very honorable person".

What' s wrong with today's "conservatives"? And where (would) will it take them?

"Admire"?

Another sad little, tow-headed moppet

who cans't read

----

IE liberal

[Nationalist]

9 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

Russia’s GDP is smaller than Canada’s. Their military is corrupt and incompetent and their soldiers are dying by the tens of thousands in Ukraine. Putin has to keep one eye over his shoulder on his own Oligarchs and warlords and worry about potential breakaway republics in places like Chechnya if his military is tied up for too long in a costly conflict and he’s perceived as to weak to counter their moves

In short he would never attack NATO directly.  If he did it would come from some indirect proxy like Wagner or some ragtag militia like the one he raise ld in Eastern Ukraine or possibly a puppet state like Belarus or Serbia. . 

Blah blah blah.

This stupid proxy war is over. Russia now has a third of Ukraine under their control and that's that.

You blood sucking monsters have destroyed Ukraine completely...and for what? Your fear and need for death. Oh not your death. The death of Ukrainians...the expendables. 

[myata]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

who cans't read

C'mon why being shy all of a sudden? Your Great Lying Idol's been way more open. Reason, principles and shame are all things of the past.