Final predictions thread for 2025 election?

[CdnFox]

Might as well do this. This election literally anything can happen and nothing would shock me but what the heck. 

Polls are saying a fairly weak liberal minority as best as you can read them as blurry and muddy as things are right now. SO that's the safe bet

I'm going to go out on a limb and say weak conservative minority.  I do have some facts and reason for that but most of all i've got some serious proof that God considers messing in Canadian elections to be a major hobby and basically does it for the LOLs.   

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Polls are saying a fairly weak liberal minority as best as you can read them as blurry and muddy as things are right now. SO that's the safe bet

The polls are saying a weak Liberal majority:  https://338canada.com/

I think the Liberals will win.  If so I hope a minority.

PP has ran a really bad campaign.  You've got to be a brain-dead fool to run on a Trumpian "Canada First" election slogan in a country that hates Trump more than ever, and also promise to use the notwithstanding clause for the first time ever for the feds.  I agree with "Canada First" in principle, but just don't use a Trump slogan if most of the country hates the guy FFS.

I think Trump cooked the CPC's chances and PP didn't do anything to quell the fears of Canadians that he's pro-Trump.

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The polls are saying a weak Liberal majority:  https://338canada.com/

They're really not. Sorry but there are severe problems this time around with 338 site. Hell, they are still rating ecos as a B+

When you actually look at the polls directly and do the calculations it looks like a Weak liberal minority. Certainly a majority is well within the Realms of possibility but that's not what they're actually looking at currently.

Quote

 

I think the Liberals will win.  If so I hope a minority.

 

It seems to be the most prevalent opinion. Liberal minority

11 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

PP has ran a really bad campaign.  You've got to be a brain-dead fool to run on a Trumpian "Canada First" election slogan in a country that hates Trump more than ever,

He's running excellent campaign. I would point out that there are essentially tied in the polls right now amongst almost all posters. So for that to be true and both of them with such high numbers either the liberals ran an absolutely terrible campaign or probably ever ran a great campaign or both. 

The guys sitting at about 39% based on almost every pull out there, some higher. There is no possible universe where you can pitch that as a bad campaign. It matches the highest score of any conservative and almost any liberal election To the turn of the century. Any other time in history and this was a strong majority win. And he didn't have the luxury of a block or NDP collapse to fuel him

15 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

I think Trump cooked the CPC's chances and PP didn't do anything to quell the fears of Canadians that he's pro-Trump.

I think trump definitely cooked the CPC badly, but I don't think the problem was with Poilievre as far as the response. The liberals did not take their vote from the CPC. Again, the CPC is pulling at historical highs, this is about as good as it has ever been.

What happened is that trump scared the pants off of the greens and the NDP and the block voters who decided that they hate the CPC but had to go somewhere and the liberals were their choice.

There is nothing realistically he could have possibly done to attract the Diehard NDP voters that were left to his Camp.

And let me remind you that currently he is tied with the liberals in the polls.

So realistically what else do you think he should have done? If he had turned the entire election into being about trump he probably would have lost that. Carney got out ahead of that because he was prime minister and was able to lie to people about a conversation he had on the phone that made him look like he could really take trump on.

 

Now you tell me which part of that isn't true and what you would have done different.

He did fine, he could have done better I think but for the most part he did quite well. I have more of a problem with this over sloganeering, and I have problems where he got lazy in the lead up to the election and kept sticking on this whole carbon tax election thing which left him no room but to start again because he was foolishly padlocked to something and that was dumb. But for the most part he did well

We will see how the election actually turns out. If the liberals get a majority he will have a lot of explaining to do and he will probably have to seriously consider stepping down. And no we won't be hiring Mike if he does so don't get your hopes up.

And it's a liberal minority then I suspect he'll stay in place and we'll learn from this and do better next time. In order for the liberals to have a majority government the NDP has to stay collapsed so they won't be there to clean up and protect them in the future.

[Moonlight Graham]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Now you tell me which part of that isn't true and what you would have done different.

He did fine, he could have done better I think but for the most part he did quite well. I have more of a problem with this over sloganeering, and I have problems where he got lazy in the lead up to the election and kept sticking on this whole carbon tax election thing which left him no room but to start again because he was foolishly padlocked to something and that was dumb. But for the most part he did well

Well the CPC was polling in the mid-40's until Trudeau stepped down.  Some of that support went to the Liberals, none of it went to the Bloc or PPC.  I agree a big # of NDP and Green supporters went to the Liberals when Carney came on.

If I were PP i would have distanced myself from Trump in any way possible, not painted "Canada First" in giant font on the side of my campaign plane.  There's other ways he could have expressed his stance on prioritizing Canadian interests more (which I 100% agree with) without copying a Trump slogan.

He also copied Trump's policy of defunding university research grants that are woke.  I'm as anti-woke as they come but PP has to understand the message these things send to a country where many fear Trump and Trumpism.  The Trump campaign strategy won't work as well in Canada as it does in the US.

I think Canadians want change, but they also want a PM who will best stand up to Trump.  That's why the polls are so split IMO.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Well the CPC was polling in the mid-40's until Trudeau stepped down. 

And? In between elections people can poll all kinds of ways, but if you're big thing is he had a 5 point slide from his maximum high of 44, which we all knew was probably a little high, to 39  and you think conservatives should be upset then you're patently insane. 

the reality is that most of the time he polled about 42 to 43, polling slightly higher as trudeau became more and more hated.   so really he lost a few "hate trudeau' points.  Thats to be expected. If trump hadn't come along we'd still be looking at a huge conservative majority 

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Some of that support went to the Liberals,

Yes. in polling at the time they went from 24 to 28. Some liberals returned home when trudeau quit. 

That was it. The rest are ndp and bloc deserters. That happened with trump.  Combined a little of course with the fact that people have just about had it with Jagger's, even his most dedicated people had to admit he hung around and screwed over the party and the country for a pension and nobody was happy about it

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

If I were PP i would have distanced myself from Trump in any way possible, not painted "Canada First" in giant font on the side of my campaign plane.

FairPoint but seriously are you trying to convince us that you feel if he had done that the NDP voters which went over to Kearney and gave him his current large polling total would have decided to go with the CPC?

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

He also copied Trump's policy of defunding university research grants that are woke.

Not really. I know you like to spin it that way but that's not what he said. His whole thing and he said it many times was about the anti-semitism which he considers to be a leftist woke phenomenon and it is. It is definitely woke and it is definitely left and universities that are allowing it should be stopped.

In your defense is that a hill I would have picked to die on or a fight I would have been provoking right now? No. I would have won the election and then done it after. But again, if he hadn't done that how many of the NDP voters that are now bolstering the ranks of the liberals and how many of the block would have come to the conservatives instead of the liberals in fear of trump?

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

I think Canadians want change, but they also want a PM who will best stand up to Trump. 

I think they got scared about trump early on. The poles are pretty clear right now that that is becoming less and less of an issue but it is definitely something that was an issue early on. Along with a little bit of help from people like frank Greaves whose polling questions deliberately specifically asked people if they thought the conservatives would sell out candidate to the Americans and whose methodologies all but guaranteed abnormally high levels of liberal support so it appeared as though the liberals were running away with the election.

And that's really really unfortunate for Poilievre. But there's not much he could have done about that.

If he had spoken out more against trump than trump would have retaliated guaranteed. Trump wants the liberals he's been extremely clear about that and he stepped in a couple times to help them out. He thinks he can get a better deal from mark carney. Carney already does business with the kushner's and other people that trump is close to.

And let's be clear this is not Canadians. At the moment those under the age of about 65 is leaning conservative. It is the over 65s That are driving the liberal vote. People like the Brampton Boomer. And mostly people in Ontario or Quebec.

Edited yesterday at 05:54 AM by CdnFox

[Moonlight Graham]

57 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

FairPoint but seriously are you trying to convince us that you feel if he had done that the NDP voters which went over to Kearney and gave him his current large polling total would have decided to go with the CPC?

Some of the NDP'ers may have stayed with the NDP.  The left hates PP.

57 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

In your defense is that a hill I would have picked to die on or a fight I would have been provoking right now? No. I would have won the election and then done it after.

That would have been politically smarter agreed.

57 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

And let's be clear this is not Canadians. At the moment those under the age of about 65 is leaning conservative. It is the over 65s That are driving the liberal vote. People like the Brampton Boomer. And mostly people in Ontario or Quebec.

Yes.  Polls say the CPC is losing with people 55+, women, and of course people on the left dislike him so much they're strategically voting with the Liberals.

I think the boomers are afraid he'll cut their seniors benefits/pensions/free dental and pharma etc.  Plus a bunch of them probably like the high housing prices, and may even have investment properties.

[blackbird]

3 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Well the CPC was polling in the mid-40's until Trudeau stepped down. 

I think many undecided voters especially in Quebec and the Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto triangle were scared by Trump into supporting Carney because Carney was a bank executive and they for some unknown reason believed Carney's claim that he is better able to deal with Trump.   Personally I don't think it matters who deals with Trump.  Trump is Trump and can't be controlled.

I remember in the 2015 election, people flocked to Trudeau because of his name, looks, and acting ability as a drama teacher.  He was a liberal and a progressive and many Canadians unwisely swallowed all that progressive stuff like legalizing marijuana and sounding like he could make a better world.  It was all a charade.  The truth is there is no free lunch and everything the government does comes with a very high price tag.  That means any kind of government welfare system has a high cost because it requires a huge bureaucracy which Trudeau created.  The biggest lie of all was the war on climate change and the carbon tax was going to save the planet.  It did nothing for climate change.  Carney has a history of being a climate change fighter so don't expect things to change a lot under him.  And I don't think he said anything about cutting the bureaucracy or changing the catch and release, soft-on-crime system.  More of the same.

[betsy]

9 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Might as well do this. This election literally anything can happen and nothing would shock me but what the heck. 

Polls are saying a fairly weak liberal minority as best as you can read them as blurry and muddy as things are right now. SO that's the safe bet

I'm going to go out on a limb and say weak conservative minority.  I do have some facts and reason for that but most of all i've got some serious proof that God considers messing in Canadian elections to be a major hobby and basically does it for the LOLs.   

 

Not a prediction but more of a wishful thinking.  At the very least......a Conservative minority.

Edited 21 hours ago by betsy

[Politics1990]

just got back from voting.. voted liberal since the ndp support  died off but yea  i predict a  conservative minority in a upset just cause of how big his rallies are i think the polls might be abit off.. i hope i am wrong though i can't stand that millhouse looking douche  lol

[Nationalist]

I predict a conservative minority. I believe people will belly up to the polls and will not be able to vote for a blatant liar, a thief and a business partner of Jarred.

[TreeBeard]

Even PP voters on this forum see the writing on the wall…. the best they are hoping for is a Con minority!  Could happen, I guess   
 

What will happen to PP’s leadership if the Cons lose? 

 

 

[Army Guy]

I'm going out on a limb here and predict a Conservative majority, with younger Canadians showing up in force to make the difference.......because they want change not the same stuff we have had over the last 8 plus years...as for the polls well i'm hoping for the same results the Last American election had and Thats what we have with Carney, the same party, same MP's , same sh!t....

3 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

Even PP voters on this forum see the writing on the wall…. the best they are hoping for is a Con minority!  Could happen, I guess   
 

What will happen to PP’s leadership if the Cons lose? 

 

 

Wrong question what is Carney going to do if he loses, think he will stick around....his bags are already packed...

[TreeBeard]

3 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

what is Carney going to do if he loses, think he will stick around....his bags are already packed...

You mean he has an actual job???  Unlike PP, who has never held a job outside politics….  

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Some of the NDP'ers may have stayed with the NDP.  The left hates PP.

Well that's the question. It is long been known that there is often a difference between what people say to upholster and what they do when they're actually staring at their ballot. Carney is a Rich international banker who avoids taxes that should go to the poor. Are they really going to put their ex beside a liberal name knowing that? Maybe, because they hate the conservatives. Then again maybe not.

But yes, the left currently is driven by hatred and bigotry. We will have to see if that hatred for conservatives is stronger than the hatred for rich industrialists who don't pay their fair share of taxes

8 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Yes.  Polls say the CPC is losing with people 55+, women, and of course people on the left dislike him so much they're strategically voting with the Liberals.

I think the boomers are afraid he'll cut their seniors benefits/pensions/free dental and pharma etc.  Plus a bunch of them probably like the high housing prices, and may even have investment properties.

Well if you drill down a bit there's still in east-West divide even in that age range. And I think what you're seeing Is that people over the age of 65 in Ontario feel very strongly about the liberals. And they like Carney, he's a somewhat corrupt elite globalist who talks up social isses, he's exactly what they normally like to vote for.

But we'll see. I think the youth may come out and vote this time. 

[Army Guy]

10 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

You mean he has an actual job???  Unlike PP, who has never held a job outside politics….  

Meaning he is not sticking around, and will cut and run he is in it to pad his resume, nothing more......Yes thats true PP has been a politician his entire career, something he is good at.

Your putting your money on a banker , who knows nothing about politics, and as a banker has received medicor job performance reviews...and is more interested in climate change than running the country...after the country already said loud and clear they don't like any carbon taxes they are a huge failure,accomplish very little , Canadians want nothing to do with them...

[Politics1990]

31 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

Even PP voters on this forum see the writing on the wall…. the best they are hoping for is a Con minority!  Could happen, I guess   
 

What will happen to PP’s leadership if the Cons lose? 

 

 

he will fight hard to stay cause he knows weather liberal minority or majority the next election in 2027 or 2029 is basically his to win. i hope they put the knives in his back like they did to otoole though

[TreeBeard]

8 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Your putting your money on a banker

I would bet on him to win the election, but I wouldn’t vote for him if he was running in my riding.  Too conservative for my liking.  

2 minutes ago, Politics1990 said:

the next election in 2027 or 2029 is basically his to win

Wasn’t this election a guaranteed win?  His Cons were up by 25% in January.  This will be the worst political crash in the history of Canadian elections if they lose!  

[Politics1990]

15 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

I would bet on him to win the election, but I wouldn’t vote for him if he was running in my riding.  Too conservative for my liking.  

Wasn’t this election a guaranteed win?  His Cons were up by 25% in January.  This will be the worst political crash in the history of Canadian elections if they lose!  

yea true but unlikely any party wins again after 14 years lol

[CdnFox]

18 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

I would bet on him to win the election, but I wouldn’t vote for him if he was running in my riding.  Too conservative for my liking.  

Wasn’t this election a guaranteed win?  His Cons were up by 25% in January.  This will be the worst political crash in the history of Canadian elections if they lose!  

That's not true, but of course we know your hatred And anger tend to drive your thinking.

He's actually pulling about where he was for the last 2 years. He's down about three points that's it.

[Moonbox]

20 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Meaning he is not sticking around, and will cut and run he is in it to pad his resume, nothing more......Yes thats true PP has been a politician his entire career, something he is good at.

He said he was sticking around if he loses.  Who knows?  Not you or I.  

PP has never had a job outside of barking slogans and insults at opponents.  Good at it?  Maybe if what counts is riling up the base, but judging by the fact that the majority of Canadians don't like him and he seems poised to lose what should have been an unlosable election, I'd say that's up for debate! 

[Moonbox]

42 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

That's not true, but of course we know your hatred And anger tend to drive your thinking.

Everything you say is like you're talking to a mirror.  🤡

[WestCanMan]

338 has the Libs at 43 and the CPC at 39, so my prediction is conservatives 42.5%, Liberal Party of China 39.5%, but still a minority gov't for the Chinese. 

[CdnFox]

28 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

He said he was sticking around if he loses.  Who knows?  Not you or I.  

 

i do

 

Quote

PP has never had a job outside of barking slogans and insults at opponents.  Good at it?  Maybe if what counts is riling up the base, but judging by the fact that the majority of Canadians don't like him and he seems poised to lose what should have been an unlosable election, I'd say that's up for debate! 

Again we see your dishonesty hatred and bigotry. The idea that being a public servant isn't a real job is ridiculous. It's a real job

And only a buffoon of Olympic magnitude would suggest that having spent an entire career in an industry makes you unqualified to work in that industry.

And it's just as fair to say the majority of Canadians don't like Carney.  He's never pulled above 50% has he. In fact he's falling

And there's absolutely nobody who would pretend that given the circumstances with trump that this was an unusable election. Again your hatred and bigotry or plain for all to see. Pretending that trump and the tariff wars never happened and that if this is all just poilievre screwing up is disingenuous to an extreme degree.

At the height of the hatred of Trudeau poilievre was pulling about 42 to 44% depending. He's currently at 39 now that trudeau left. So we slipped about three points. That's it

Carney did not take his votes, carney took the NDP and the block votes.

And you have to be 17 different kinds of stupid to think there's such a thing as an 'unlosable' election in Canada.  ANYTHING can happen. But if there was an 'unlosable' one it would have been against justin.  Carney and trump change the picture. 

[taxme]

17 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The polls are saying a weak Liberal majority:  https://338canada.com/

I think the Liberals will win.  If so I hope a minority.

PP has ran a really bad campaign.  You've got to be a brain-dead fool to run on a Trumpian "Canada First" election slogan in a country that hates Trump more than ever, and also promise to use the notwithstanding clause for the first time ever for the feds.  I agree with "Canada First" in principle, but just don't use a Trump slogan if most of the country hates the guy FFS.

I think Trump cooked the CPC's chances and PP didn't do anything to quell the fears of Canadians that he's pro-Trump. 

Judging by the amount of thousands of supporters PP has attended at his rallies, it looks to me like a conservative majority. I do not understand as to why so many Canadians are so worried about Trump and what he says or does. Canadians should stick to Canadian affairs and stop butting their noses into American affairs. Our country is on fire, and Canadians should be worried about our Canadian affairs. If Corney should win the election, it will not be Canada First with that WEF globalist shill. It will be more like Goodbye Canada. 🤔

[TreeBeard]

5 minutes ago, taxme said:

Judging by the amount of thousands of supporters PP has attended at his rallies, it looks to me like a conservative majority. I do not understand as to why so many Canadians are so worried about Trump and what he says or does. Canadians should stick to Canadian affairs and stop butting their noses into American affairs. Our country is on fire, and Canadians should be worried about our Canadian affairs. If Corney should win the election, it will not be Canada First with that WEF globalist shill. It will be more like Goodbye Canada. 🤔

If an AI were designed to be the most outlandish, unhinged, conspiritard conservative one could imagine, it would sound just like you.