Why Trump Won’t Win

robosmith · December 21, 2023

Why Trump Won’t Win

Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t.

Yes, recent polls appear to favor him. Yes, Joe Biden is an imperfect opponent. And yes, much could change over the next 11 months, potentially in Trump’s favor. But if Biden’s health holds, he is very likely to be reelected next year. It’s hard to imagine any Republican candidate galvanizing Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans to vote for the current president in the way that Trump will.

’m not arguing that anyone who wants President Biden to win—and, more important, anyone who wants Trump to lose—should relax. To the contrary, Democrats, and any other sensible voters who oppose Trump, need to forcefully remind the American people about how disastrous he was as president and inform them of how much worse a second term would be. Thankfully, that is not a hard case to make.

The 2024 election will be a referendum on democracy, with both candidates claiming to stand for freedom and American values. On this matter, Biden’s claims are obviously stronger: He has been governing as a traditional president, whereas Trump promises authoritarianism and openly says he wants to be dictator for a day to accomplish certain policies, namely restricting immigration. But what if his plans take more than a day? What if his one-day dictatorship extends to a year and then never ends? Americans know that strongmen don’t keep their promises.

Biden is old, but so is Trump. Biden has grown unpopular, but so has Trump. Biden has liabilities, but Trump’s are considerably worse. Biden has lost the backing of plenty of voters, but the results of the past few elections suggest that Trump has lost more. Meanwhile, Trump’s record as president and since—January 6, the devastating testimony from his former senior officials, the ongoing trials, and whatever additional self-inflicted wounds he delivers—will contrast very poorly with Biden’s track record and steady leadership. By November, enough Americans will surely understand that they aren’t voting for Biden over Trump so much as voting for the Constitution over a would-be authoritarian.

The case against Trump’s reelection is obvious and damning. As long as his opponents prosecute that case—and they will—Trump isn’t going to win.

Of course right wingers here won't agree with this analysis cause they are in DEEP DENIAL about objective reality.

Legato · December 21, 2023

1 hour ago, robosmith said:

Why Trump Won’t Win

Some look at Trump’s long list of flaws and understandably see reasons to worry about him winning. I see reasons to think he almost certainly won’t.

Yes, recent polls appear to favor him. Yes, Joe Biden is an imperfect opponent. And yes, much could change over the next 11 months, potentially in Trump’s favor. But if Biden’s health holds, he is very likely to be reelected next year. It’s hard to imagine any Republican candidate galvanizing Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans to vote for the current president in the way that Trump will.

’m not arguing that anyone who wants President Biden to win—and, more important, anyone who wants Trump to lose—should relax. To the contrary, Democrats, and any other sensible voters who oppose Trump, need to forcefully remind the American people about how disastrous he was as president and inform them of how much worse a second term would be. Thankfully, that is not a hard case to make.

The 2024 election will be a referendum on democracy, with both candidates claiming to stand for freedom and American values. On this matter, Biden’s claims are obviously stronger: He has been governing as a traditional president, whereas Trump promises authoritarianism and openly says he wants to be dictator for a day to accomplish certain policies, namely restricting immigration. But what if his plans take more than a day? What if his one-day dictatorship extends to a year and then never ends? Americans know that strongmen don’t keep their promises.

Biden is old, but so is Trump. Biden has grown unpopular, but so has Trump. Biden has liabilities, but Trump’s are considerably worse. Biden has lost the backing of plenty of voters, but the results of the past few elections suggest that Trump has lost more. Meanwhile, Trump’s record as president and since—January 6, the devastating testimony from his former senior officials, the ongoing trials, and whatever additional self-inflicted wounds he delivers—will contrast very poorly with Biden’s track record and steady leadership. By November, enough Americans will surely understand that they aren’t voting for Biden over Trump so much as voting for the Constitution over a would-be authoritarian.

The case against Trump’s reelection is obvious and damning. As long as his opponents prosecute that case—and they will—Trump isn’t going to win.

Of course right wingers here won't agree with this analysis cause they are in DEEP DENIAL about objective reality.

Which Nile are you talking about, the Blue Nile, White Nile, Nile Delta etc. They all have different depths, please be more specific.

robosmith · December 21, 2023

4 minutes ago, Legato said:

Which Nile are you talking about, the Blue Nile, White Nile, Nile Delta etc. They all have different depths, please be more specific.

DENILE in your head.

Legato · December 21, 2023

1 minute ago, robosmith said:

DENILE in your head.

Which headwaters? Would that be Lake Victoria or Lake Tana.

robosmith · December 21, 2023

8 minutes ago, Legato said:

Which headwaters? Would that be Lake Victoria or Lake Tana.

How would I know which lake your head is soaked in?

Legato · December 21, 2023

24 minutes ago, robosmith said:

How would I know which lake your head is soaked in?

Well you keep telling us you know everything or will you De-Nile it.

robosmith · December 22, 2023

52 minutes ago, Legato said:

Well you keep telling us you know everything or will you De-Nile it.

Quote where I said that or stop LYING.

WestCanMan · December 22, 2023

"Cuz if he duz im gonna cwy ?"

?

-TSS- · December 22, 2023

The Republicans can no longer win the popular vote. They can still win the electoral college though but as soon as Texas flips blue it is game over forever for the Republicans.

August1991 · December 28, 2023

I agree, RoboSmith.

But for a different reason: vote-harvesting.

On 12/22/2023 at 12:34 PM, -TSS- said:

The Republicans can no longer win the popular vote. They can still win the electoral college....

Disagree.

robosmith · December 28, 2023

13 hours ago, August1991 said:

I agree, RoboSmith.

But for a different reason: vote-harvesting.

Not realistic, cause it would take thousands of bad actors to affect the outcome, and when that many are involved, it will not stay secret.

Queenmandy85 · December 28, 2023

I hope I am wrong, but I get the sense a significant proportion of voters are irrational. Of course, that is likely due to the amount of time I spend on political forums. I see a lot of posts from Americans who say they don't care about President Trump's faults. They hate their government. It is not just their elected government. They are mad at the people who actually make the government run, the people who provide the services they need. They call it the "Deep State, the "elites," the "globalists." The truth is, they don't know who they are angry with. They are just angry. They want someone to burn it all down.

Trump will win because people who should know better, will hold their noses and vote for him. He is the person who will stop illegal immigration. Deep down they know he can't, but they will vote for him anyway because he repeats the lies they tell themselves.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Queenmandy85
punctuation

robosmith · December 28, 2023

45 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I hope I am wrong, but I get the sense a significant proportion of voters are irrational. Of course, that is likely due to the amount of time I spend on political forums. I see a lot of posts from Americans who say they don't care about President Trump's faults. They hate their government. It is not just their elected government. They are mad at the people who actually make the government run, the people who provide the services they need. They call it the "Deep State, the "elites," the "globalists." The truth is, they don't know who they are angry with. They are just angry. They want someone to burn it all down.

Trump will win because people who should know better, will hold their noses and vote for him. He is the person who will stop illegal immigration. Deep down they know he can't, but they will vote for him anyway because he repeats the lies they tell themselves.

It is the nature of the MAGA CULT. "He (Trump) says the things I cannot."

Except he won't win because like last time, there are not enough of them and the economy will be significantly better by next November.

Queenmandy85 · December 28, 2023

32 minutes ago, robosmith said:

It is the nature of the MAGA CULT. "He (Trump) says the things I cannot."

Except he won't win because like last time, there are not enough of them and the economy will be significantly better by next November.

If President Trump tells them the economy is getting worse, too many will believe it. I am baffled that out of all the intelligent people in the US, all the DNC and the GOP have are these people. Every potential candidate has an achillies heel. The best of the lot is Secretary Buttigieg, but sexual orientation is still a problem with too many voters. I had hopes for Ambassador Haley, but she destroyed her chances last night when she refused to say slavery caused the Civil War. I thought she had a brain but that ship has sailed...or sank.

CdnFox · December 28, 2023

1 hour ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I hope I am wrong, but I get the sense a significant proportion of voters are irrational.

"The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter"

robosmith · December 28, 2023

31 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

If President Trump tells them the economy is getting worse, too many will believe it. I am baffled that out of all the intelligent people in the US, all the DNC and the GOP have are these people. Every potential candidate has an achillies heel. The best of the lot is Secretary Buttigieg, but sexual orientation is still a problem with too many voters. I had hopes for Ambassador Haley, but she destroyed her chances last night when she refused to say slavery caused the Civil War. I thought she had a brain but that ship has sailed...or sank.

She couldn't say it in the primary and expect to win in SC. No MAGA CULT in the Democratic Party.

CdnFox · December 28, 2023

At the end of the day campaigns matter and the polling indicates that really it's probably going to come down to that.

Frankly that favours biden a bit. Trump does well 'Stumping' in between elections but doesnt' do well in campaigns. He didn't win the first time because of a great campaign, he won because hillary ran a worse campaign.

He lost the second time because biden ran NO campaign and hid in his basement.

Trump needs to flip that a bit this time - get biden out there front and center and running on his record and trump needs to focus his narrative on why biden bad and why trump world will be great, rather than just randomly talking about shit.

There's no doubt the pieces are there for trump to win. But - I don't know if he's got the skills at campaigning for it and i doubt he'll hire a lot of experts to help. If he does tho biden's toast, people are done with him and if they feel they have a reasonable alternative they'll jump.

Rebound · December 29, 2023

10 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I hope I am wrong, but I get the sense a significant proportion of voters are irrational. Of course, that is likely due to the amount of time I spend on political forums. I see a lot of posts from Americans who say they don't care about President Trump's faults. They hate their government. It is not just their elected government. They are mad at the people who actually make the government run, the people who provide the services they need. They call it the "Deep State, the "elites," the "globalists." The truth is, they don't know who they are angry with. They are just angry. They want someone to burn it all down.

Trump will win because people who should know better, will hold their noses and vote for him. He is the person who will stop illegal immigration. Deep down they know he can't, but they will vote for him anyway because he repeats the lies they tell themselves.

The US has never recovered from the Civil War, which is what started this “Government is too big” mentality. But once the Civil War ended, the South was solid Democrat for one reason only: Abraham Lincoln was a Republican. The Democrats, even under Roosevelt, had a very conservative wing. This situation flipped with the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts, along with federally-mandated desegregation and even busing.

So there is definitely an element of “blow the whole thing up” that a lot of people subscribe to, and its core is racism. Anybody who says it’s not: Trump wanted to keep monuments of Southern Generals intact, Nikki Haley refuses to admit that slavery was even a cause of the Civil War, and DeSantis is fighting tooth and nail to stop any factual discussion of slavery in his state’s classrooms. Racism is the beating heart of MAGA.

Nationalist · December 29, 2023

23 minutes ago, Rebound said:

The US has never recovered from the Civil War, which is what started this “Government is too big” mentality. But once the Civil War ended, the South was solid Democrat for one reason only: Abraham Lincoln was a Republican. The Democrats, even under Roosevelt, had a very conservative wing. This situation flipped with the passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts, along with federally-mandated desegregation and even busing.

So there is definitely an element of “blow the whole thing up” that a lot of people subscribe to, and its core is racism. Anybody who says it’s not: Trump wanted to keep monuments of Southern Generals intact, Nikki Haley refuses to admit that slavery was even a cause of the Civil War, and DeSantis is fighting tooth and nail to stop any factual discussion of slavery in his state’s classrooms. Racism is the beating heart of MAGA.

Lol...my good Lord but this is drivel.

You and robo-bot should share a home. You already share a brain.

And speaking of racism...how's the flowers at Bird's grave?

Biden is toast on so many levels its now just pathetic.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Nationalist

CdnFox · December 29, 2023

1 hour ago, Rebound said:

So there is definitely an element of “blow the whole thing up” that a lot of people subscribe to, and its core is racism. Anybody who says it’s not: Trump wanted to keep monuments of Southern Generals intact, Nikki Haley refuses to admit that slavery was even a cause of the Civil War, and DeSantis is fighting tooth and nail to stop any factual discussion of slavery in his state’s classrooms. Racism is the beating heart of MAGA.

Nah. There's nothing racist about keeping historical figures. History is history.

And while racism was a very significant factor in the war it wasn't really what the war was about. That war was going to happen racism or not. If it was just about racism why didn't they go to war with the other slave holding states.

And it's absolute bollox that desantis won't allow any discussion of slavery. Please - give me a break

But once again you have to be dishonest to make your point. Is your point so weak that it can't stand on it's own without dishonesty?

Rebound · December 29, 2023

5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Nah. There's nothing racist about keeping historical figures. History is history.

And while racism was a very significant factor in the war it wasn't really what the war was about. That war was going to happen racism or not. If it was just about racism why didn't they go to war with the other slave holding states.

And it's absolute bollox that desantis won't allow any discussion of slavery. Please - give me a break

But once again you have to be dishonest to make your point. Is your point so weak that it can't stand on it's own without dishonesty?

The reason for the Civil War was slavery.

CdnFox · December 29, 2023

52 minutes ago, Rebound said:

The reason for the Civil War was slavery.

Nonsense. IF that was the reason how come they didn't go to war with the other states where slavery was legal?

"THE REASON WE"RE GOING TO WAR IS SLAVERY!!!!! but we're only attacking half of you!" LOL

Hell they didn't even ban slavery in those other states when they won the war. It would be many years later.

Slavery was not the reason for the war. If there were no slaves, in the end there would still have been a war. The reason the war happened is a fundimental difference in belief over what the role and powers and rights of federation and state should be - and that was a sore spot going back to the very founding of the country.

Slavery became the catalyst but it was not the cause. Sorry - i know the left LOVES to re-write that history and make it sound like the north waged war on the south in order to free the slaves but that's not really why it happened. Like i said- if it was they'd have gone after the other states as well.

Nationalist · December 29, 2023

20 hours ago, robosmith said:

It is the nature of the MAGA CULT. "He (Trump) says the things I cannot."

Except he won't win because like last time, there are not enough of them and the economy will be significantly better by next November.

Lol...oh just wait. The economy will be better by November.

So hilarious.

Hodad · December 29, 2023

45 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Lol...oh just wait. The economy will be better by November.

So hilarious.

The Biden economy is already better than the Trump economy in most measurables. Sorry your "feelings" don't agree with reality.

Michael Hardner · December 29, 2023

16 minutes ago, Hodad said:

The Biden economy is already better than the Trump economy in most measurables. Sorry your "feelings" don't agree with reality.

No need to trust your own eyes when FOX can tell you what you think though...