War In Ukraine

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Aren’t you acknowledging that it wasn’t winnable then, if starting the war with the opponent they had little chance of beating was what what made it unwinnable? 

Maybe Germany could have beaten the USSR on its own, but they couldn’t cross the Channel and deal with Britain so a war on two fronts was inevitable.  War with the Soviet Union was always the aim.  Hitler never wanted to fight Britain and, like Putin, thought he could just bully his eastern neighbours and the soft/decadent West would idly stand by. 

 

There's been a lot of interesting studies on this and debate. Hitler could have crossed the channel and taken britian -and it would have been that much easier if he hadn't halted the tanks before dunkirk to let the luftewaffle "handle" it. 

However - he absolutely didn't plan for it, didn't think it was going to be necessary, he liked the british and thought he could make peace. by the time he realized he'd have to fight them, it was far too late to get anything meaningful ready.

Fatal error of course.  IF he had planned to deal with england and prepared properly, and if he'd wiped out the soldiers at dunkirk, then he could very likely have taken britian and that would have changed everything,

He might still have lost - but the russians would have had one hell of a lot harder of a time of it even if the us could get them supplies.

 

[Aristides]

38 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Aren’t you acknowledging that it wasn’t winnable then, if starting the war with the opponent they had little chance of beating was what what made it unwinnable? 

Maybe Germany could have beaten the USSR on its own, but they couldn’t cross the Channel and deal with Britain so a war on two fronts was inevitable.  War with the Soviet Union was always the aim.  Hitler never wanted to fight Britain and, like Putin, thought he could just bully his eastern neighbours and the soft/decadent West would idly stand by.  

 

 

 

 

 

Sure it was,  Britain couldn't defeat Germany alone. Hitler committing himself to a two front war was his first mistake, declaring war on the US first was his second.

[Moonbox]

Germany couldn't defeat Britain either.  

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

There's been a lot of interesting studies on this and debate. Hitler could have crossed the channel and taken britian -and it would have been that much easier if he hadn't halted the tanks before dunkirk to let the luftewaffle "handle" it.

Hitler couldn't cross the channel.  The BEF's destruction would not have conjured up a navy and enough planes to cover the crossing.  

It was a good example of the delusional decision process coming from the top though.  The generals knew better but Hitler listened to his friend instead.  

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Fatal error of course.  IF he had planned to deal with england and prepared properly

He didn't really have the option.  Preparing properly for Britain would have required a massive shipbuilding effort that could not have been hidden and would have taken years (starting long before the war began, under Versailles restrictions).   

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

He might still have lost - but the russians would have had one hell of a lot harder of a time of it even if the us could get them supplies.

Sure, but we are talking about hypotheticals that aren't realistic.  Crossing the English channel with no navy wasn't realistic, and that was only necessitated by the unrealistic assumption that Germany could roll over all of its neighbors and the rest of Europe would sit by and watch.  That we're seeing history so blatantly repeat itself is frightening.  

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Germany couldn't defeat Britain either.  

Sure they could.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Hitler couldn't cross the channel.  The BEF's destruction would not have conjured up a navy and enough planes to cover the crossing.  

Of course they could. Hell that wasn't even their biggest problem - they were seizing private boats sufficient for the task (although it ruined the herring harvest.) The british navy was the big obstacle and resupplying the army once it got there. Actually crossing the army wasn't a problem.

And solving the other problems would have taken a little more thought and prep time. But absolutely it was doable.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

It was a good example of the delusional decision process coming from the top though.  The generals knew better but Hitler listened to his friend instead.  

No, hitler listened to himself and was sure he woudn't need to invade. Thus no plans were made.  Then it was on again off again every half an hour until it was abandoned. Their air force rotated between bombing strategic targets to force surrender, bombing the very harbors they'd need if they crossed, bombing airfieilds to wipe out fighter command, and occasionally trying to hunt down 'radar' stuff (they were sure the actual gear was buried and only antennas woud be on the surface. )

 

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

He didn't really have the option.  Preparing properly for Britain would have required a massive shipbuilding effort that could not have been hidden and would have taken years (starting long before the war began, under Versailles restrictions).   

Nope.  But it would have definitely required a couple of years of thought and planning. Nothing 'massive'. But some key things would have to be addressed.

AND - it would have meant going after the british fleet more seriously early on. Especially the destroyer force, and subs if possible.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Sure, but we are talking about hypotheticals that aren't realistic.  Crossing the English channel with no navy wasn't realistic, and that was only necessitated by the unrealistic assumption that Germany could roll over all of its neighbors and the rest of Europe would sit by and watch.  That we're seeing history so blatantly repeat itself is frightening.  

It would have been entirely realistic - HAD it been thought of and planned for since the beginning.

But - and here we get back to today's situation - i suspect that people told hitler what he wanted to hear.  I suspect he said 'britian will fold the moment we start bombing" and everyone say Ja Ja Ja you so smart.

THEN he listens to his friend to stop the tanks and let the luftwaffe handle the british on the beach. So they get away.

And NOW he realizes he has to go after britian and he's got no way to do it.

I wonder if Poutine said "we can take them in a week and america won't resupply them" and everyone say Da Da da you so smart.  And then it went down hill from there and now just like hitler in the end nobody wants to tell him the real situation because it's not very good for them.

And i wonder what he's hearing now from his people about what is and isn't possible.

Edited May 8, 2023 by CdnFox

[Nationalist]

11 hours ago, Aristides said:

Hitler committing himself to a two front war was his first mistake

This I can agree with.

[Moonbox]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Of course they could. Hell that wasn't even their biggest problem - they were seizing private boats sufficient for the task (although it ruined the herring harvest.) The british navy was the big obstacle and resupplying the army once it got there. Actually crossing the army wasn't a problem.

Crossing hostile waters against the largest conventional navy in the world was very much going to be a problem, and resupplying doubly-so.  The German Army chief of staff famously quipped, "We might as well put the soldiers through a sausage grinder" and the German navy was strongly opposed to any attempted crossing as well.  

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

And solving the other problems would have taken a little more thought and prep time. But absolutely it was doable.

A little more thought and prep.  So easy. 

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

It would have been entirely realistic - HAD it been thought of and planned for since the beginning.

but it really wasn't.  We can talk about all sorts of hypotheticals, but they require hindsight for things like the Fall of France being as "easy" as it turned out to be, and for Germany's enemies to both allow and not adjust for Germany's preparations. 

Regardless, that part is off topic and you're touching on what we're really focused on here anyways:

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

But - and here we get back to today's situation - i suspect that people told hitler what he wanted to hear.  I suspect he said 'britian will fold the moment we start bombing" and everyone say Ja Ja Ja you so smart.

Exactly.  These dictators get so bewitched by the delusions of their own superiority (both personal and racial) that they assume nobody can or will stand up to them.  Hitler was probably the best example, but even the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was pure and farcical hubris.  

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

And i wonder what he's hearing now from his people about what is and isn't possible.

I think the musical chairs Sad Vlad is playing with his army command tells us what's going on there.  The problem he has now is that he can't afford to lose.  Totalitarian dictators usually struggle to survive failed wars of choice, so he needs this war to succeed but doesn't have the tools to do so.  When his generals try to tell him this, he replaces them.  "NO EXCUSES!  ONLY VICTORY!"
 

[CdnFox]

33 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Crossing hostile waters against the largest conventional navy in the world was very much going to be a problem, and resupplying doubly-so.  The German Army chief of staff famously quipped, "We might as well put the soldiers through a sausage grinder" and the German navy was strongly opposed to any attempted crossing as well.  

Sure -  thats why i said they'd have had to target the brit navy, especially destroyers, earlier on. It would have been very difficult by the time hitler realized britian wasn't going to cave

33 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

A little more thought and prep.  So easy. 

but it really wasn't.  We can talk about all sorts of hypotheticals, but they require hindsight for things like the Fall of France being as "easy" as it turned out to be, and for Germany's enemies to both allow and not adjust for Germany's preparations. 

The problems were far from unsolvable. They just didn't try. They knew if they went to war with poland that france would declare war and fight, and they planned accordingly. Voila - victory. They knew that england would declare war - but BELIEVED they would make peace. So they didn't try to plan. And that was a problem.

But they absolutely could have.

33 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Regardless, that part is off topic and you're touching on what we're really focused on here anyways:

Yeah... fun topic tho (and back on ground i have a little expertise in ) we should do that as a thread one of these days - the 3 or 4 pivotal points in the war and could they have reasonably gone differently and why they didn't. Or something.

33 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Exactly.  These dictators get so bewitched by the delusions of their own superiority (both personal and racial) that they assume nobody can or will stand up to them.  Hitler was probably the best example, but even the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was pure and farcical hubris.  

I think the musical chairs Sad Vlad is playing with his army command tells us what's going on there.  The problem he has now is that he can't afford to lose.  Totalitarian dictators usually struggle to survive failed wars of choice, so he needs this war to succeed but doesn't have the tools to do so.  When his generals try to tell him this, he replaces them.  "NO EXCUSES!  ONLY VICTORY!"
 

Well if history is true to form here, then one of three things will happen:

1 - somehow his forces gain successes that they can then reasonably declare as a win and he saves face and this ends.

2-  This stays in stalemate forever considering the ukrainians don't seem willing to ever back down and eventually the strain on the russian economy and people becomes serious

3 - There's a successful counter offensive and at some point he starts to lose.

For two and three there  historically comes a point where it's just not possible to hide the fact you're not winning.

So how does putin react in that case? When it gets harder and harder to convince him there's any victory, and worse the people are getting upset or his forces in the field are being pushed back and may actually be driven out? Start shooting commanders? What do you think we'd be able to see to suggest he's reaching that point.

[Moonbox]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Sure -  thats why i said they'd have had to target the brit navy, especially destroyers, earlier on. It would have been very difficult by the time hitler realized britian wasn't going to cave

They couldn't target the Royal Navy.  It was too big and they didn't have the tools to do it.  The main naval bases were out of range of aircraft, and didn't have the right aircraft for the job anyways.  They had no surface fleet to speak of and U-boats were the natural prey of destroyers.  

Before 1940, France had the (on paper) most powerful army in the world.  That was the immediate threat and that was the one the Germans had to prepare for and had the experience and know-how for.  Handling the world's largest navy was a completely different can of worms and Germany didn't have the military industrial capacity to solve it anytime in the near future.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah... fun topic tho (and back on ground i have a little expertise in ) we should do that as a thread one of these days - the 3 or 4 pivotal points in the war and could they have reasonably gone differently and why they didn't. Or something.

I do really like the topic.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Well if history is true to form here, then one of three things will happen:

1 - somehow his forces gain successes that they can then reasonably declare as a win and he saves face and this ends.

I think this is where things end.  There will be a months long information campaign to set conditions on how Putin is satisfied that they achieved their goal, but it's going to look ridiculous after everything he's said.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

2-  This stays in stalemate forever considering the ukrainians don't seem willing to ever back down and eventually the strain on the russian economy and people becomes serious

One thing about the Russians is that they've proven willing to suffer oppression for long periods of time.  I think this is the one area where Putin is right.  A frozen conflict benefits him, rather than the other way around.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

3 - There's a successful counter offensive and at some point he starts to lose.

I think if/when that happens, he gets ousted.  

[Nationalist]

So the Ukrainian offensive is canceled. How surprising...

The little comic boy made millions...Blackrock and the IMF will own what's left of Ukraine...millions of Ukrainians are scattered all over Europe...

Lol...y'all been had...

[Moonbox]

Blackrock, the IMF, Klaus Schwab...something something...deepState eLitES!?  

Who said the Ukrainian counter-offensive was cancelled?  Was it...your Twitter feed?  Was it...Russia Today?  Was it...Iranian news again?  ?

 

[Nationalist]

6 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Blackrock, the IMF, Klaus Schwab...something something...deepState eLitES!?  

Who said the Ukrainian counter-offensive was cancelled?  Was it...your Twitter feed?  Was it...Russia Today?  Was it...Iranian news again?  ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-ukrainian-counter-offensive-expected-before-mid-june-presidential-adviser-2022-05-05

https://news.yahoo.com/washington-post-says-ukraines-counteroffensive-130801847.html

What do you think all those Russian missile raids have been blowing up? Every time NATO sends arms, the Russians blow them up. There's nothing left but total destruction now.

Unless, of course, little comic boy is allowed to sign a peace deal. And with Blackrock and Co. waiting in the wings, that should happen soon.

[Moonbox]

So not cancelled then, according to your links.  Thanks for coming out again.  It’s always good for a laugh.  ?
 

I’m loving these new references to Blackrock though.  This is what the conspiracy zombies on Twitter/Reddit have started talking about over the last few months, so here you are with the copypasta.  

Edited May 9, 2023 by Moonbox

[CdnFox]

Clearly the counter-offensive is still on but i have to say, unless there is an AMAZING game of misdirection going on this is being SO telegraphed that the russians might as well be sitting at the planning table. Everyone knows where their forces are and their numbers and gear, its pretty obvious what their objectives will be, russians have even been evacuating command staff from areas they're sure they're going to attack in, it feels like there's zero element of surprise or anything.

Maybe they've got something tricky up their sleeves or maybe they're just hoping that the russians are so disorganized that it won't matter, but it sure looks like the Russians are going to see this coming.

Or it's all illusion and the Ukraine is planning one of the bigger sucker-punches of all time

[Aristides]

This time a year ago, how many would have bet a looming Ukraine offensive a year later would be the main topic of discussion?

[CdnFox]

Fair point.

[Dougie93]

9 minutes ago, Aristides said:

This time a year ago, how many would have bet a looming Ukraine offensive a year later would be the main topic of discussion?

I predicted that the Russians would take east Ukraine up to the Dniepr relatively easily

but I did not factor in something like Zelensky rallying the nation

never saw that coming

[Perspektiv]

On 5/7/2023 at 5:31 PM, Contrarian said:

One evening in March 1980, during the final years of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev's rule, Prigozhin, and three friends left a St. Petersburg event near midnight and noticed a woman she was walking alone on a dark street.

One of Prigozhin's friends distracted the woman by asking her for a cigarette. While she wanted to open her purse, Prigozhin's crept up behind her and grabbed her by the neck, squeezing her until she lost consciousness. Then, his friend took her shoes, while Prigozhin deftly removed her gold earrings and put them in his pocket. The four then disappeared, running away and leaving the woman lying on the street.

The court found that this was only one of the many robberies that Prigozhin and his friends committed in St. Petersburg over a period of several months.

He was sentenced to 13 years in prison and spent the rest of the decade behind bars, in 1990.

Hate to say it, but this is mild, compared to what his group has been doing to innocent civilians.

It takes someone quite sick, to put hundreds of thousands on a front line, knowing they are ill equipped, simply to wait until spring to send fresh and better equipped military.

[Perspektiv]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Or it's all illusion and the Ukraine is planning one of the bigger sucker-punches of all time

Not sure why you would telegraph any of your moves. It keeps Russia on their toes. I think its psychological warfare at this point. 

If you see your neighbor taking deliveries of AK47s by the pallet, are you going to spray paint his house for him insulting you? 

That pallet will restrain your behavior like the monitor showing you you entering a bank. 

You are far less likely to rob it.

Maybe that's the whole point. Stall tactics and minimize damage. 

[August1991]

This is a foolish civil war.

In a good world, this current civil war between Slavs would not happen.

===

We Canadians avoided this tragedy. We Canadians are civiilsed.

In Canada, there are many Slavs: Poles, Bulgarians, Slovaks - Ukrainian, Russian - Some Orthodox, others Catholic. We often disagree.

In Canada, there are many French and English, Catholics and Protestants.

Yet we find a way to get along.

Edited May 11, 2023 by August1991

[August1991]

Moonbox, CdnFix, Nationalist, Perspectiv, Dougie93:

I have a different view of the world.

Indeed, I disagree with Hillary Rodham Clinton on many issues.

For example? I think the US Second Amendment should be repealed, or properly interpreted: ".... well-ordered .militia..."  

[CdnFox]

5 hours ago, August1991 said:

Moonbox, CdnFix, Nationalist, Perspectiv, Dougie93:

I have a different view of the world.

Indeed, I disagree with Hillary Rodham Clinton on many issues.

For example? I think the US Second Amendment should be repealed, or properly interpreted: ".... well-ordered .militia..."  

This seems an odd place to bring that up - what would you change or reinterpret?

[Aristides]

Britain supplying long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

This should make it very interesting for Russian bases and supply chains within 200 KM of the border, including Crimea.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Aristides

[Dougie93]

1 hour ago, Aristides said:

Britain supplying long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

This should make it very interesting for Russian bases and supply chains within 200 KM of the border, including Crimea.

AFAIK those are air launched only

I wonder how they are interfacing them with Ukrainian MiG's

[Aristides]

9 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

AFAIK those are air launched only

I wonder how they are interfacing them with Ukrainian MiG's

I was wondering about that as well. Obviously they have a plan. Maybe there is a way of ground launching them using a rocket booster to get them up to speed.

[Dougie93]

6 minutes ago, Aristides said:

I was wondering about that as well. Obviously they have a plan. Maybe there is a way of ground launching them using a rocket booster to get them up to speed.

yeah, I was thinking that might be it too

convert them into truck launched by attaching a booster rocket