The Coronavirus

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, Boges said:

It does, not arguments with that. 

I guess we all need to be rich enough to be able to afford to retire in a private room. 

 

No, just enough for home care.     Canada is the worst in the "developed world" for COVID deaths in LTCs....by far.

[Boges]

16 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

No, just enough for home care.     Canada is the worst in the "developed world" for COVID deaths in LTCs....by far.

We've been over this, it's a made up stat. 

They have the most percentage from LTC homes as a percentage of their total. 

If there were only 20 deaths and 19 where from a LTC it would be worse. 

I'm sure a counties like Spain, Italy and the US have more deaths from LTC homes, it's just that there percentage is lower because more people died from community spread. 

 

[bush_cheney2004]

5 hours ago, Boges said:

I'm sure a counties like Spain, Italy and the US have more deaths from LTC homes, it's just that there percentage is lower because more people died from community spread. 

 

 

The stat remains...Canada is the worst in the entire "developed world"....by a large margin.

...and now some "experts" in Canada are admitting the obvious and moving for a more balanced approach:

 

Quote

Eliminating COVID-19 cases in Canada will exact too heavy a toll on society, health experts say

Some public health and infectious disease experts are pressing for governments in Canada to shift to minimizing, not eradicating, COVID-19 while allowing society to resume functioning.

The open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and all premiers, dated July 6, says aiming to prevent or contain every case is not sustainable at this stage in the pandemic.

"We need to accept that COVID-19 will be with us for some time and to find ways to deal with it," the 18 experts wrote.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid19-reopening-balanced-1.5642689

 

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

If Protests/Riots are an indication that would lead one to believe that Social Distancing is a good thing. Something that indoor dining or gathering at Church wouldn't help. 

Lots of people were infected by the rioting. Don't kid yourself. You can't loot a store or deliver a gang beating on an old lady without getting close.

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, eyeball said:

Care to list them?

Wearing N-95 masks.

Gloves aren't necessary. They can just as easily be contaminated as hands and they don't get washed.

 

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, dialamah said:

Yeah.  People who spread HIV because they failed to protect their partner could be charged with a criminal offense and spend up to a lifetime in jail.   So endangering other people because you don't want to be inconvenienced by wearing protective gear isn't acceptable.  Even if that clown down south does it.

1)Most of the time people don't need masks. 

2)If we would have blocked travel when Trump did, and we never told people not to wear masks, we wouldn't be in this pickle. 

3) FYI the difference between HIV and Covid is rather large, as is the manner in which they're transmitted. 

[dialamah]

8 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

1)Most of the time people don't need masks. 

2)If we would have blocked travel when Trump did, and we never told people not to wear masks, we wouldn't be in this pickle. 

3) FYI the difference between HIV and Covid is rather large, as is the manner in which they're transmitted. 

1.  Most of the time people don't need condoms.

2. You cling to that travel ban like a drowning man clings to a life preserver.  Canada is still doing much better, travel ban or not.  Trump is still discouraging the use of masks, whereas we've moved on as information has changed.

3.  Your point?  That Covid is infinitely more catchy than HIV?  All the more reason to support the wearing of masks, wouldn't you agree?

[Boges]

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

Lots of people were infected by the rioting. Don't kid yourself. You can't loot a store or deliver a gang beating on an old lady without getting close.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

Quote

 

A paper looking at virus data from protests between May 26 and June 20, found “no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onset.”

“We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived,” the authors of the National Bureau of Economic Research paper wrote.

That lines up with what others have seen in various cities.

“I have not seen any peer-reviewed research linking outdoor protests (or really any major outdoor events) to the surge here in Texas,” said Rodney Rohde, PhD, an associate dean for research at Texas State’s College of Health Professions who focuses on public health microbiology.

 

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

Yes I know, 

Fake News!!!!! 

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The debate on how Covid spreads has figured in this thread for a long time (although still only months). Droplets are certainly involved but what about aerosols, smaller particles that can linger in the air much longer and travel farther too? Well, it seems the consensus is shifting on this. Aerosols do seem to be a factor in Covid transmission:

Quote

..in an open letter to the W.H.O., 239 scientists in 32 countries have outlined the evidence showing that smaller particles can infect people, and are calling for the agency to revise its recommendations. The researchers plan to publish their letter in a scientific journal next week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html?referringSource=articleShare

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[WestCanMan]

43 minutes ago, dialamah said:

1.  Most of the time people don't need condoms.

Right. And when you don't, you don't.

Quote

2. You cling to that travel ban like a drowning man clings to a life preserver. 

Because the truth matters?

Quote

Canada is still doing much better, travel ban or not. 

You're the one who insists on using the US as a comp. The country that did the opposite of Trudeau is Japan. They banned travel, told people to wear masks, and they have our entire population jammed into the Tokyo Metro Area. Japan has less than 1,000 deaths.

Quote

Trump is still discouraging the use of masks, whereas we've moved on as information has changed.

He isn't making masks mandatory. They're not mandatory here either. 

Quote

3.  Your point?  That Covid is infinitely more catchy than HIV?  All the more reason to support the wearing of masks, wouldn't you agree?

My point is that your comment was idiotic. You're comparing dandelion fluff to satchel charges. 

[WestCanMan]

29 minutes ago, Boges said:

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

Yes I know, 

Fake News!!!!! 

 

Yes, completely fake news.

In case you forgot, it was pre-ordained that protesting wouldn't cause covid to flare up, and that's because protesting (wink wink) was encouraged by the Obamas, CNN, etc. Even when people were being killed and there was over a billion dollars worth of rioting, arson, looting and murder they were still encouraging protesting (wink wink) and it still didn't spread covid.

According to your theory, and your stats, protesting, rioting, looting and gang-thumping people are literally the only things that people can do in large groups without spreading covid. 

So to answer you and dialamah at the same time, it's ok to go into a store without a mask, you just have to make sure that you steal a big-screen TV so that no one gets covid. 

[bush_cheney2004]

File under...DUH !

Quote

WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible

LONDON — The World Health Organization is acknowledging the possibility that COVID-19 might be spread in the air under certain conditions — after more than 200 scientists urged the agency to do so.

In an open letter published this week in a journal, two scientists from Australia and the U.S. wrote that studies have shown “beyond any reasonable doubt that viruses are released during exhalation, talking and coughing in microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in the air.”

https://www.startribune.com/who-indoor-airborne-spread-of-coronavirus-possible/571693432/

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

File under...DUH !

 

This isn’t obvious and has been debated for months. The microdroplets referred to here  are aerosols. This means that covid virus could infect somebody minutes to hours after the person who expelled them has left the room. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

This isn’t obvious and has been debated for months. The microdroplets referred to here  are aerosols. This means that covid virus could infect somebody minutes to hours after the person who expelled them has left the room. 

 

It has been obvious to many laypersons for months.   The WHO has fiercely resisted the airborne spread conclusion because it invokes a much more aggressive protocol.

WHO guidance has consistently lagged this pandemic (masks, border closures, travel bans, intubation, etc.).

[OftenWrong]

Any science that guides national policy should not be determined on a whim. And that means the information needs to be more carefully assessed, if we are to draw broad conclusions from it about "cause and effect."

We have already seen throughout this debacle how we have made mistakes. I and other people have raised warnings about the shutdown of too many services and their effect on health care. I also warned about the elderly, way back, and about how staying indoors keeps the virus around longer. Remember that one?

I am not a prophet or soothsayer. I have no explanation why we are making these mistakes, don't ask me. But we do, and still are. The report on those backlogs is too terrible for the news to tell us, apparently because it's not even being addressed. There is no plan being developed to minimize the social harm outcomes that came as a result of the excessive shutdown.

I am telling you now too, that the masks aren't that useful. There can in some cases be harm in wearing them. Unless we wear them all the time, "religiously", and using high quality masks and following all of the protocols, they are not very effective. But along with the implementation of mandatory masks will come other consequences. Those need to be balanced against the benefit that masks represent, to get the full picture.

Now let's say you are a leader and don't know the answers to above, but are willing to enforce it anyway? Welcome to being part of a science experiment, kids. You're the data.

 

[dialamah]

There is no perfect answer, and to expect people - even experts - to have all the answers within minutes, or even months, of a new virus appearing is ridiculous.  We'll be learning about this virus for years, especially given that viruses mutate.  

"Carefully assessing" sounds good - but what happens if there's delay on what later proves to be a good idea?  Experts, scientists and governments are lambasted for having moved too slowly.  

Masks help slow the spread of this disease, the science is pretty clear on that, even if they're not a perfect solution.  Yes, people don't wear them correctly, and they touch them and their faces, they take them off and on incorrectly and they reuse them.  But if I'm in a grocery store aisle and 4 feet away from someone with Covid but not yet showing symptoms, I'm safer if that person is wearing a mask.  Even if it's reused, even if they've touched their face, even if they've taken it off incorrectly - it will still provide protection to me. 

Wearing a mask isn't about you, its about protecting other people.  Like our grandparents did when they went to war.  They'd have been plenty happy if they'd only had to wear a mask to protect their loved ones and fellow citizens.  But today's snowflakes can't seem to understand the simple concept of even slightly inconviencing themselves for the health and safety of others.

 

[eyeball]

17 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

We have already seen throughout this debacle how we have made mistakes.

Well duh, what did you expect when it was painfully obvious we were woefully unprepared for dealing with this from the get go?

Quote

I am not a prophet or soothsayer.

That's right you're a highly trained medical expert with a greater level of training than even BC's Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry MD MPH FRCPC. The NY Times describes Bonnie Henry as being "one of the most effective public health officials in the world".

So WTF are you doing in here wasting your expertise on us?

Edited July 12, 2020 by eyeball

[OftenWrong]

Information about the virus is so new, and the info is changing making it a challenge to keep up with. On top of that is the problem of fake news and outright politicization of the virus... even manipulation of information by our adversaries. We are highly vulnerable to manipulation at a time such as this. It's important not to make rash decisions, but unfortunately our leadership is completely unprepared for this kind of a problem. We elect financial bozos and pretty boys and call them state leaders, and now they are making decisions that are completely outside of their expertise, if they have any at all.

On top of that there are many medical experts with differing views on how we should handle this. Here is a link to an article I posted a few weeks ago, in case you missed this buried in the stream. I have presented other links in the past to substantiate my posts about the elderly crammed in homes, about cancer and heart disease patients being delayed in treatment, delays in diagnostic procedures and their resultant outcomes. Those negative outcomes can be prevented. Shutting down too is death. The system is reactive in implementing new "safety rules" quickly, that forced citizens to quarantine and removed all other health are operations, but isn't able to reverse those decisions when it became clear they aren't needed, and even when it's clear they are problem in themselves. That's because when you're an incompetent leader it is far easier to implement a new protocol that sounds good in the executive board room, than it is to un-implement.

Link

Quote

Evans admitted that the science shows that wearing a cloth face mask does little to stop transmitting the virus in close proximity. The mask, which has recently become a political tool, is mostly for the psychological well-being of the community, Evans said.

I suggest reading the whole article.

[OftenWrong]

There is no reason to wipe everything down all the time.

Why it may be harder to catch COVID-19 from surfaces than we first thought

Quote

Despite the lack of concrete evidence on surface transmission, the WHO still maintains  contaminated surfaces – also known as fomites – are a "likely mode of transmission" for COVID-19.

Examples of how the system is unable to change, but in one direction only.

[OftenWrong]

22 hours ago, dialamah said:

There is no perfect answer, and to expect people - even experts - to have all the answers within minutes, or even months, of a new virus appearing is ridiculous. 

The virus is behaving much like other respiratory viruses. The virus transmission in the general public is apparently very low.

Today we know that:

- Wiping down surfaces is not necessary. Indicated in the link I provided. It is also apparent, anecdotally, if you go to the grocery store now. No more wiping down the belt in-between customers, and no more even wiping down the bank card machine keyboard.

- Face masks, especially home made, are not necessary. Indicated in the link I provided. I agree people find them comforting, but they do not realize that it's a false comfort.

Ok, think about it. If face masks do not provide the margin of safety they are purported to do, is it good for us to wear faces masks, and relax our physical distancing and other measures? What does it really say about face masks?

Or let me ask you another question. If a person has coronavirus and goes outdoors wearing a mask that is not N95, do you now feel safe being within less than 2 metres for this person? Because you shouldn't.

Road to hell, and stuff.
 

Quote

We'll be learning about this virus for years, especially given that viruses mutate. 

Yes exactly. The data is too new and still highly subject to misinterpretation. Medical science does not work that way. Information needs to be carefully analyzed, since statistics can include many influences happening at once.

I do not outright challenge the information and what provincial health authorities are saying. They are giving the best information they have about the virus.

Here is where I differ- as a leader I would ask my top medical experts to tell me the most effective way to get rid of the virus. Ok fine. They are experts on that and will discuss, purely within the realm of their expertise, how best to get rid of the virus. That doesn't explain how to run a country. There are many other considerations, and not just the economy. The effect on society has to be understood. When I heard they were shutting down medical and diagnostics I was floored. Assuming it was done for two weeks, ok maybe. But that is bad, absolutely bad decision making. The virus won't go away in weeks.

[OftenWrong]

7 hours ago, eyeball said:

Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............................................

Little flea, shoo, shoo.

[eyeball]

58 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Little flea, shoo, shoo.

I was going to say your last few posts were quite reasoned and sensible.

I was also pretty freaked out and fairly pissed off when I found out diagnostics and surgeries and such were being shut down given my heart condition.  What really pissed me off though was hearing so many people like yourself for example characterize this as just a flu and people like me as some sort of coward and slacker.

You did outright challenge medical experts often referring to them as commies fascists and authoritarians because in your alleged proffessioal medical opinion this was just a flu and they were using it as an excuse to take over the world.  Economic experts and policies were given the same treatment.

You may have the capacity to think reasonably on occasion but I think years of right wing obsessions polluting your thinking retarded that and despite your apparently moments of clarity it remains the key driver to your thinking.

You have some nerve castigating the politization of this.  You remember when I pointed out, to you in particular, how politicizing this pandemic would make it infinitely worse?  I suppose you also don't recall that I pointed out in late February or early March that if an authoritarian dictatorship couldn't contain this a libertarian democracy wouldn't have a chance. Why? Politics in a word, especially of the sort you practice.

It's never taken a genius to figure out where this was heading. That said it was bound to take fake expert a few months to clue in.

So no need to shoo I'll just buzz thru one ear and sail unimpeded thru your other.

 

 

 

[OftenWrong]

 

Quote

The president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association is already expressing some hesitations at the prospect of entering the third phase.

“Given that hospitals continue to act as the anchor of Ontario’s response to COVID-19, (the OHA) will be giving this announcement some serious scrutiny”‘ Anthony Dale wrote on Twitter. “We can’t have hallway healthcare in a pandemic.”

No, but it's fine to have hallway healthcare any other time, is that it? We don't need sanctimonious opinions, from the very people who have failed us.

[OftenWrong]

On 7/12/2020 at 8:36 AM, OftenWrong said:

Here is a link to an article I posted a few weeks ago, in case you missed this

Link

I suggest reading the whole article.

Doctor Evans gave an update in response to the province going to "Level 3", whatever that is.

Quote

July 30 2020

Kingston may be one of the many regions set to enter Stage 3 of the province’s economic reopening on Friday morning, but the area’s top infectious disease specialist said residents still need to be careful.

“We still need the public to continue to do and practise good social distancing because COVID-19 is not gone,” Dr. Gerald Evans of Kingston Health Sciences Centre said on Monday. “It is still a circulating virus.”

...

Evans said that they’ve learned that fomite spread, the spread of the virus on surfaces, only attributes to less than 10 per cent of all transmissions. This means opening play structures and gyms may be safer than public health officials originally thought, Evans speculated.

Because of that, he doesn’t think that establishments’ cleanliness and disinfecting routines should be used as a relevant catalyst to reopen. What Evans said is more important is the type of space and its level of airflow/ventilation.

“That’s inside, not outside,” Evans said. “It’s inside an area with crowding, even if there are masks and even if they limit the number of customers, those are the ones that are going to pose more of a problem resulting in the transmission of the virus.”

 

The bolding is mine. I add it to emphasis my "speculative" point, my anecdote, my dumb personal observation that I made a few days ago.Well, appears I beat Dr. Evans to the punch on that one, eh @eyeball?

Maybe I am just lucky that I know these things? Who the hell am I?

It's just possible there are people here who have more than a little education, and do have training in certain things. There may even be health care workers and safety engineers here. Canada has many such people. So big deal. Shut up and learn.

Anyway, as I wander through stores these days wearing the mandatory rag across my face, I think about how you are all mindless fools who don't know what the frig you are doing at best on a given day. At worst you're the bigger problem. When I walk around and you people walk right by me, feeling so smug and confident you are safe, make me want to revolt. I would tear that shit right off your faces, ye stupid fools, because you people have no idea.

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 7/9/2020 at 9:12 PM, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

It has been obvious to many laypersons for months.   The WHO has fiercely resisted the airborne spread conclusion because it invokes a much more aggressive protocol.

WHO guidance has consistently lagged this pandemic (masks, border closures, travel bans, intubation, etc.).

This virus has been with us a few months. Caution is warranted in making definitive statements about it when so many are listening to the advice.