Shady Posted October 11, 2020 Report Share Posted October 11, 2020 Jake Tapper destroys Biden spokespersons inane talking point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argus Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 22 hours ago, ironstone said: It's very interesting what Shady has posted above with the polls, 2016 vs 2020. One would think that polling firms would absolutely want to get the most accurate numbers possible regardless of who they want to win but I'm not sure if that's the case. He's only posted the ones he thinks gives his boy a chance. And the polling firms have made some changes to enhance accuracy since 2016. 22 hours ago, ironstone said: Jesse Watters from FOX has pointed out a number of times that many polling firms deliberately oversample Democrats which taints the real numbers. According to Watters, the reason they so this is that they do have an interest in promoting one side over the other, namely to discourage Republicans from showing up to vote and perhaps more so to discourage money going to what people would see as the losing side.I think there's something to this theory. Pretty dumb theory. Because the last time around what the poll numbers did was cause a lot of Democrats not to vote because they figured it was in the bag. 22 hours ago, ironstone said: Another thing at play is that many Trump supporters are afraid to even voice their opinions out of fear of retribution. The Democrats and their foot soldiers have created a very real climate of fear. Riiiight. Trump supporters are usually in Trump friendly zones where it's more likely Biden supporters will be afraid to voice their opinions. Lots of them have been attacked by Trump supporters even though FOX will never mention that to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironstone Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 There are plenty of stories about people wearing MAGA hats getting attacked in public. Do you think it would be possible for any person to wear a hat like that in public in any area that's heavily Democratic?I think it's much less likely for anyone in Democratic gear to get attacked from someone on the right. https://www.newsweek.com/criminal-acts-trump-maga-hats-1357179 I would never wear that hat anywhere in public,even in Canada. I would think it would be rare for anyone in Harris/Biden gear to get attacked anywhere by comparison. This is the point I'm trying to make about the climate of fear in the US to even show support for Trump. I think Harris/Biden will win this year but it might be much closer than the polls suggest and it won't be pretty.It's possible that the polls are slanted this way in favor of Democrats in order to discourage Republicans from voting. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hillary-clinton-why-polls-wrong-2017-5?op=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCanMan Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 22 hours ago, Shady said: Jake Tapper destroys Biden spokespersons inane talking point. Jake Tapper just told the truth on CNN. It's like he missed every single morning memo from the last 4 years. He must be going senile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 Biden tells Ohio that’s he’s running for the senate. Tells them to register to vote at a non existent website! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCanMan Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Shady said: He got the state right. This was a win for Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCanMan Posted October 12, 2020 Report Share Posted October 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Argus said: Pretty dumb theory. Because the last time around what the poll numbers did was cause a lot of Democrats not to vote because they figured it was in the bag. Theories abound but whatever the reason, pollsters overestimated the liberal voters in the states and canada by quite a bit in the most recent elections. The Liberals actually lost the popular vote here when the polls had them quite far ahead, and Hillary was supposed to cruise to a win in the last election but she got crushed. I personally think that the pollsters favour liberals because a big part of our MSM political coverage is abot how awesome Trudeau is, or how bad Harper is, in the States it's the same but with Biden/Trump. Polls that show a Canadian Conservative leading rain on the media's 4-yr-long parade that's dedicated to our dear leader. CNN would rather explode than show Trump leading. It would make their whole idiotic drivel narrative meaningless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, WestCanMan said: Theories abound but whatever the reason, pollsters overestimated the liberal voters in the states and canada by quite a bit in the most recent elections. The Liberals actually lost the popular vote here when the polls had them quite far ahead, and Hillary was supposed to cruise to a win in the last election but she got crushed. I personally think that the pollsters favour liberals because a big part of our MSM political coverage is abot how awesome Trudeau is, or how bad Harper is, in the States it's the same but with Biden/Trump. National Polling in 2016 was largely accurate. Hillary within the margin of error. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/ It was statewide polling that mattered. And State-wide polling matters now. Trump has pulled advertising in many battleground states. He's losing or very close to Biden in several states he won. Some by the smallest margins and some by big leads like with Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and even Texas. Quote Polls that show a Canadian Conservative leading rain on the media's 4-yr-long parade that's dedicated to our dear leader. CNN would rather explode than show Trump leading. It would make their whole idiotic drivel narrative meaningless. Polling never showed the Liberals were far ahead. They were always neck and neck . https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/november-2019/how-did-the-polls-fare-in-election-2019/ Like with the EC, the national poll doesn't matter. At least in Canada the contests aren't winner take all, they're separate ridings. It's harder to poll individual ridings than entire provinces or regions. The Liberals won where it mattered, the Toronto Suburbs. That's the most important electoral bloc in Canada. Edited October 13, 2020 by Boges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dialamah Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Republicans try cheating in California by setting up fake ballot collection boxes. Their excuse? "Ballot harvesting is legal in California", completely ignoring the rules that make it legal. Now they could face charges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 You've absolutely nothing to worry about. Trump doesn't stand a chance against Joe Biden winning his seat in the Senate. Voters LOVE not being told what a candidate's election plans are. The military appreciate being called 'stupid bastards'. They really do. Plans to pack the USSC with Democrats doesn't appear petty. Nor does it look like cheating to the average American voter...not at all. Sliding Harris in after she lost to Tulsi Gabbard in hopes of Harris becoming President due to the 25th Amendment...voters are too stupid to notice that...one hopes...eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCanMan Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, dialamah said: Republicans try cheating in California by setting up fake ballot collection boxes. Their excuse? "Ballot harvesting is legal in California", completely ignoring the rules that make it legal. Now they could face charges. The Dems were actually caught cheating 3 times in the 2016 election. Now the biggest election cheaters in the western world are busy championing every voter-fraud-friendly scheme known to man, and you're right under their wing without a care in the world lol. All the liberal toadies in North America still look back on the 2016 and 2018 elections as if Trump was the cheater, it's stupidity on a level that boggles the mind. I couldn't care less about one small, specific instance of voter fraud. The fact is that the Dems have an overall strategy to use mail-in ballots to steal this election or they wouldn't be pushing it so hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCanMan Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Boges said: National Polling in 2016 was largely accurate. Hillary within the margin of error. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/ Utter bullshit. MSM pushed Hillary as having an 85% chance of winning, 88%, and as high as 92% leading up to the election. Here's the NYT saying 91% https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html but their chart, which must be really scientific (because it's a chart and charts don't lie, right?), says 92%. Quote From the beginning, Donald J. Trump faced a challenging electoral map, and his campaign has not improved his chances. At this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win — it will take a sudden and striking change in the fundamentals of the presidential race. As a rule of thumb, we should expect Election Day polling averages to miss by as much as 3 to 4 points: Mrs. Clinton’s current lead in the national popular vote is around 6 to 7 points and growing. You can blather all you want Boges, facts aren't your friend and they never have been. Quote It was statewide polling that mattered. And State-wide polling matters now. Trump has pulled advertising in many battleground states. He's losing or very close to Biden in several states he won. Some by the smallest margins and some by big leads like with Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and even Texas. What you're reciting now is the pre-emptive strike against the collective disbelief of millions of voters who know that Trump should definitely win their state, but will be shocked to find that mail-in ballots favoured Joe Biden 2-1 and Trump was handily defeated. Quote Polling never showed the Liberals were far ahead. They were always neck and neck . https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/november-2019/how-did-the-polls-fare-in-election-2019/ Like with the EC, the national poll doesn't matter. At least in Canada the contests aren't winner take all, they're separate ridings. It's harder to poll individual ridings than entire provinces or regions. The Liberals won where it mattered, the Toronto Suburbs. That's the most important electoral bloc in Canada. I don't really care what online polls currently have as their 2019 predictions, I was alive back then and I remember quite well what they were predicting, and it wasn't neck and neck. Your historic polling is total bullshit. Just refer to the pre-election polling on this site. I was the only person here predicting the PC had a chance, because the polls were dead against it, and I was wrong as could be. My faith in Canadians was completely undeserved. Here's current polling that says the Liberals have a 93.4% chance of winning Canada-wide, it was at 100% for quite a long time. https://338canada.com The polling on this same site has the Liberals with a 21% chance of winning the most seats in Alberta. Are you f'ing kidding me that polling is realistic? The Conservatives got 70% of the vote in Alberta in 2019 and the Liberals got less than 14%. If there's one place on planet earth where there's a 100.00000% chance of a specific election result it's in Alberta and they peg it down to 79%?????? There's a far better chance that Trudeau doesn't even bother going to Alberta during the election campaign than that he wins that province. The slimy god-damned piece of garbage doesn't give a shit about western Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, WestCanMan said: Utter bullshit. MSM pushed Hillary as having an 85% chance of winning, 88%, and as high as 92% leading up to the election. What a great way to illustrate that you don't understand probability ! If you have a 1% chance of having a car accident today, I guess that means it will never happen right ? Do you ever consider not posting your opinions, because of - you know - your obvious fallacies ? I'm just asking in a friendly way... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said: What a great way to illustrate that you don't understand probability ! If you have a 1% chance of having a car accident today, I guess that means it will never happen right ? Do you ever consider not posting your opinions, because of - you know - your obvious fallacies ? I'm just asking in a friendly way... Moderator, eh? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, WestCanMan said: Utter bullshit. MSM pushed Hillary as having an 85% chance of winning, 88%, and as high as 92% leading up to the election. Kay. Polling in State-by-State races weren't nearly as detailed as they are this time. That was the clear fault in 2016. Hillary did win the popular vote. So polling was correct, it was just irrelevant because Trump was able to win 3 states by a fraction of a percent. Another thing to consider is the other candidates. This year they should play less a role. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argus Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, DogOnPorch said: You've absolutely nothing to worry about. Trump doesn't stand a chance against Joe Biden winning his seat in the Senate. Voters LOVE not being told what a candidate's election plans are. Right. Like last time around Trump had this INCREDIBLE health care plan which was going to provide WAY BETTER health care for WAY LESS cost! It was all ready to go to replace that horrible Obama care! Don't ask me details. I'll let you know after the election! After the election: Health care plan? What health care plan? And what are Mr. Trump's plans this time around? He doesn't even have a platform! He couldn't even tell FOX what he planned to do if re-elected. Quote The military appreciate being called 'stupid bastards'. They really do. That clip, pushed around by Republicans, gets cut off right before all the service people he was talking to laughed. In other words, it was just a joke and they knew it. His son was in the service, after all. Trump, on the other hands, has been quoted saying disparaging things bout the military on numerous occasions. And this is entirely in-line with his personality. He can't figure out why anyone would put their life on the line for anything or anyone. He certainly wouldn't. Quote Plans to pack the USSC with Democrats doesn't appear petty. Nor does it look like cheating to the average American voter...not at all. You mean the way Trump is packing the USCC with anti-abortion nuts who will vote regardless of the law? Quote Sliding Harris in after she lost to Tulsi Gabbard in hopes of Harris becoming President due to the 25th Amendment...voters are too stupid to notice that...one hopes...eh? Have no idea what you're talking about here. I assume it's another republican talking point FOX is spewing out. Edited October 13, 2020 by Argus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, Argus said: Right. Like last time around Trump had this INCREDIBLE health care plan which was going to provide WAY BETTER health care for WAY LESS cost! It was all ready to go to replace that horrible Obama care! Don't ask me details. I'll let you know after the election! After the election: Health care plan? What health care plan? And what are Mr. Trump's plans this time around? He doesn't even have a platform! He couldn't even tell FOX what he planned to do if re-elected. That clip, pushed around by Republicans, gets cut off right before all the service people he was talking to laughed. In other words, it was just a joke and they knew it. His son was in the service, after all. Trump, on the other hands, has been quoted saying disparaging things bout the military on numerous occasions. And this is entirely in-line with his personality. He can't figure out why anyone would put their life on the line for anything. You mean the way Trump is packing the USCC with anti-abortion nuts who will vote regardless of the law? Have no idea what you're talking about here. I assume it's another republican talking point FOX is spewing out. You're worried. Stop it. You have absolutely nothing to worry about as I noted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Boges said: Polling in State-by-State races weren't nearly as detailed as they are this time. That was the clear fault in 2016. Hillary did win the popular vote. So polling was correct, One would expect that the "expert" polls would know that U.S. presidential elections are won based on electoral votes from states, not just the popular vote. Even Canadians know that by now. The same experts said that Trump had to win Florida in 2016....and they were wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argus Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, DogOnPorch said: You're worried. Stop it. You have absolutely nothing to worry about as I noted. Does it bother you that I point out what you're saying is wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, DogOnPorch said: You're worried. Stop it. You have absolutely nothing to worry about as I noted. Indeed...he is in Canada. Can still come to the U.S. for abortions like so many others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Argus said: Does it bother you that I point out what you're saying is wrong? Not at all. I'm enjoying this greatly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 Just now, bush_cheney2004 said: One would expect that the "expert" polls would know that U.S. presidential elections are won based on electoral votes from states, not just the popular vote. Even Canadians know that by now. The same experts said that Trump had to win Florida in 2016....and they were wrong. I've admitted this several times. Dems took the Rust Belt for granted. That's why Trump won. They knew they could target areas in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to take votes from Hillary. She assumed she'd get those voters. The Dems aren't taking those states for granted and have huge leads in all three states. Added to that Arizona, Ohio, Texas, North Carolina are also in play now. Biden could get 400 EC Votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Indeed...he is in Canada. Can still come to the U.S. for abortions like so many others. No, the border is closed. And it'll probably remain closed until the US get a POTUS that takes Covid seriously. The US must be hurting for all that Healthcare Tourism they benefit from while refusing to provide all their own citizen's healthcare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogOnPorch Posted October 13, 2020 Report Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Indeed...he is in Canada. Can still come to the U.S. for abortions like so many others. You have to admit that the plan to put Harris in the big seat via the 25th Amendment is ingenious. But I wonder HOW MANY Democrats this stunt will piss-off? The Bernie Bros are pretty iffy as it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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