Fat Trudeau becomes unglued when a Canadian doesn't support his corrupt war in Ukraine

[Dougie93]

2 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

If the Ruskies die that easily, what's stopping the Ukrainians from just wandering into Moscow? Why don't they send a squad of Krystiyuk Norriskis to slay their way to Red Square and dropkick Putin over the Kremlin, into the Moskva? 

why can't the Ukrainians just bypass Russian conventional forces

and start detonating massive truck bombs in urban centres across Russia, including Moscow ?

it's not like the Russians have actually prepared to fight a total war

they obviously assumed this would be a walkover

so I would surmise that Russia is actually quite vulnerable to asymmetrical attacks

[CdnFox]

18 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

why can't the Ukrainians just bypass Russian conventional forces

and start detonating massive truck bombs in urban centres across Russia, including Moscow ?

it's not like the Russians have actually prepared to fight a total war

they obviously assumed this would be a walkover

so I would surmise that Russia is actually quite vulnerable to asymmetrical attacks

I don't know - bombing british cities in ww2 only had the effect of hardening britian's resolve, and that may happen here.

I would guess doing things like blowing up electrical facilities or bridges or other infrastructure which made life inconvenient would actually do more 

[OftenWrong]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

and that may happen here.

Here? Writing from the Kremlin, are we?

 

[myata]

14 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

then we hunker down at fifteen minutes notice to launch of warning in a Cold War II standoff, indefinitely

OK and here's an alternative scenario. If NATO support wouldn't waver and there are strong reasons for that, Russia's sad populace desire to die for the great (also patently mad) Ruler would wither out, as it happened already thrice (three times, in a course of a one century) and leave its regime with nothing else to do but to collapse. There's no way to tell for certain which one it'll be at this point, but in a couple of years at most, we should be able to see it. Mark the date.

Edited March 3, 2023 by myata

[Dougie93]

9 hours ago, CdnFox said:

I don't know - bombing british cities in ww2 only had the effect of hardening britian's resolve, and that may happen here.

I would guess doing things like blowing up electrical facilities or bridges or other infrastructure which made life inconvenient would actually do more 

you need to foster the morale of your own side tho

you need to be seen by your own people to be striking back against the enemy where it hurts

tho I don't think strategic bombing is the applicable WW II analogy

what I am describing is more like the French Resistance operating behind enemy lines

in terms of British history,

the alternate analogy is that the Irish gained their independence from Britain

in an entirely asymmetrical war

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

you need to foster the morale of your own side tho

you need to be seen by your own people to be striking back against the enemy where it hurts

tho I don't think strategic bombing is the applicable WW II analogy

what I am describing is more like the French Resistance operating behind enemy lines

in terms of British history,

the alternate analogy is that the Irish gained their independence from Britain

in an entirely asymmetrical war

That makes sense from the ukrainian side but the poster was suggesting that the russian resolve might falter if their people were attacked by these kinds of raids.  I'm saying i'm not sure the russian people would be LESS likely to fight if you started blowing them up, I would worry they would be MORE likely to fight.  Just as the british were MORE likely to fight after germany bombed them.

I'm sure from the Ukrainian side it would bolster the morale of their people.

[Moonbox]

9 hours ago, myata said:

If NATO support wouldn't waver and there are strong reasons for that, Russia's sad populace desire to die for the great (also patently mad) Ruler would wither out, as it happened already thrice (three times, in a course of a one century) and leave its regime with nothing else to do but to collapse. There's no way to tell for certain which one it'll be at this point, but in a couple of years at most, we should be able to see it. Mark the date.

This is a really good point, and I don't know how the Putin cheerleading squad fails to realize this.  The absoluteness of the ignorance around this region's history is astonishing.  

Edited March 3, 2023 by Moonbox

[CdnFox]

18 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

This is a really good point, and I don't know how the Putin cheerleading squad fails to realize this.  The absoluteness of the ignorance around this region's history is astonishing.  

In fairness Putin does have an unusually firm grip on the politics and people. A poster here suggests there just isn't anyone with the political brass ones necessary to actually oust him. That MAY be true. But i do think there comes a point where SOMEONE decides it's easier to stop the war and blame it on putin who just died after horribly terribly cutting his own head off in a freak shaving accident

[myata]

42 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Putin cheerleading squad fails to realize this.

Some of them may, but by this point in the trajectory they're out of options.

[WestCanMan]

15 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

it is clear that the Ukrainian forces are superior at the tactical level

the Russians simply have too much mass for them to be overrun

but a stalemate on this line is a win for the Ukrainians

since again, what the Russians hold is more of a burden than a boon

there is nothing of worth in Donetsk & Luhansk

It's a buffer zone. They will drop ordnance there that they wouldn't want to drop in Russia itself. 

[WestCanMan]

13 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

so I would surmise that Russia is actually quite vulnerable to asymmetrical attacks

Russia has fought wars and dealt with enough terroristically inclined groups in that corner of the world, I think they probably deal with it better than we do in NA.

Every time we hear of a terrorist attack over here it's always 'someone who was on the FBI/CSIS radar', in Russia they're probably a bit more proactive. 'On the radar' in Russia probably doesn't mean 'free to go anywhere, do anything, associate with anyone, buy any manner of bomb-making materials imaginable', etc, and getting caught doesn't mean 'protected status in prison'.

[Moonbox]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

In fairness Putin does have an unusually firm grip on the politics and people.

Publicly and by all appearances, but that's sort of how things work when there's no free media and you get jailed and/or murdered for speaking out against him.  In that case, it's a whole lot of public, "Yes, we LOVE the LEADER", while privately people grumble or lament their lots in life.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

A poster here suggests there just isn't anyone with the political brass ones necessary to actually oust him.

It's not that easy to do.  He has a private army of something like 20,000 in Moscow alone.  

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

That MAY be true. But i do think there comes a point where SOMEONE decides it's easier to stop the war and blame it on putin who just died after horribly terribly cutting his own head off in a freak shaving accident

I wonder how far off it really is.  At this point, the Russian people are undoubtedly aware this is a real war given the number of body bags and maimed soldiers returning, and combined with being cut off from most of the outside world (especially Europe and North America) will hurt them economically and symbolically as well.  Eventually, a lot of them will start questioning: Are we the baddies? 

 

[Dougie93]

5 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Russia has fought wars and dealt with enough terroristically inclined groups in that corner of the world, I think they probably deal with it better than we do in NA.

Every time we hear of a terrorist attack over here it's always 'someone who was on the FBI/CSIS radar', in Russia they're probably a bit more proactive. 'On the radar' in Russia probably doesn't mean 'free to go anywhere, do anything, associate with anyone, buy any manner of bomb-making materials imaginable', etc, and getting caught doesn't mean 'protected status in prison'.

I disagree, I don't think the FSB & MVD are in the same league with JSOC, not even close

Russian CT is a rather blunt instrument

their attempts at hostage rescues have all been fiasco & catastrophe

their offensive operations in Chechnya & Dagestan largely just consist of shooting the place up like amateurs

but I'm not actually talking about terrorism

I'm talking about asymmetrical warfare executed by professionals, plausibly supported by the NSA, CIA & MI6

already the Russians have had attacks against Engels & Diagilevo air bases

those are strategic nuclear bomber bases housing Russian thermonuclear weapons

that's like hitting Whiteman AFB Missouri and Barksdale AFB Louisiana

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

23 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Yup. Having NATO along Ukraine's 3,000km border with Belarus and Russia is also no-go.

America already has the Russians surrounded, point blank on their borders

Alfred Thayer Mahan's Eternal Seapower can strike anywhere, anytime, without warning

and Ivan would never see us coming nor going

[Dougie93]

5 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

It's a buffer zone. They will drop ordnance there that they wouldn't want to drop in Russia itself. 

but the whole war is ostensibly to defend Donetsk & Luhansk

the Russians are the ones suffering tens of thousands of casualties for this "buffer zone"

[Dougie93]

7 hours ago, CdnFox said:

In fairness Putin does have an unusually firm grip on the politics and people.

it's much more than that

Putin has actually destroyed the entire Russian government and replaced it with himself

there is no alternative power structure, there is no opposition government waiting in the wings

there isn't even a functioning bureaucracy to implement coherent planning

there is only Putin

and that is why he is failing

now that he has gone to war without any functioning government to carry out his orders

the reason we have to confront this version of Russia

really has nothing to do with ideology nor politics

this is literally crazy town, armed with 6,000 thermonuclear warheads, running amok

revanchist against America for the Soviet self inflicted defeat in the First Cold War

Russia is not even in control of what it is unleashing, this is madness, rabid

that has to be stopped, simply for our own existential interests

summon the Eagle with thunderbolts in talons grasped, not one step back

for we have reached the banks of the Rubicon

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

I disagree, I don't think the FSB & MVD are in the same league with JSOC, not even close

Russian CT is a rather blunt instrument

their attempts at hostage rescues have all been fiasco & catastrophe

their offensive operations in Chechnya & Dagestan largely just consist of shooting the place up like amateurs

but I'm not actually talking about terrorism

I'm talking about asymmetrical warfare executed by professionals, plausibly supported by the NSA, CIA & MI6

already the Russians have had attacks against Engels & Diagilevo air bases

those are strategic nuclear bomber bases housing Russian thermonuclear weapons

that's like hitting Whiteman AFB Missouri and Barksdale AFB Louisiana

This just makes me even more worried about escalation against a nuclear-armed Russia. 

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

America already has the Russians surrounded, point blank on their borders

Alfred Thayer Mahan's Eternal Seapower can strike anywhere, anytime, without warning

and Ivan would never see us coming nor going

I'd rather see them hit China tbh. Get rid of those man-man islands in the SCS.

They're the ones we need to worry about.

If they haen't surpassed the US already, how much longer do you think it will take them?

[SpankyMcFarland]

If Putin keeps this up, Russia could become a Chinese colony.

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

This just makes me even more worried about escalation against a nuclear-armed Russia. 

that is an ever present Sword of Damocles

but the adversary gets a vote

and the adversary is massively escalating

nuclear deterrence demands a robust response

letting Ivan run the table on you is not a safe option at all

 

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

but the whole war is ostensibly to defend Donetsk & Luhansk

the Russians are the ones suffering tens of thousands of casualties for this "buffer zone"

Do you honestly think that Putin is there to defend the people of Donbas? Out of the goodness of his heart? 

That sounds like Russian propaganda to me. I thought this was all military strategy, not "Putin the softy". 

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

If they haen't surpassed the US already, how much longer do you think it will take them?

they're not even close

China is a basket case

XI Jingping is driving China back to Maoist totalitarian central planning

the danger is more that China is going to implode, inciting a global financial crisis of unprecedented scale

 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Do you honestly think that Putin is there to defend the people of Donbas? Out of the goodness of his heart? 

That sounds like Russian propaganda to me. I thought this was all military strategy, not "Putin the softy". 

I think Putin is in way over his head

I don't think he has a plan

I think he was expecting this to be a walkover, Ukraine would fold

Putin didn't have a plan B 

[WestCanMan]

5 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

they're not even close

China is a basket case

XI Jingping is driving China back to Maoist totalitarian central planning

the danger is more that China is going to implode, inciting a global financial crisis of unprecedented scale

 

Dude, China built over 100 warships since 2015, and not shitty ones either. 

They're building stealth fighters and everything else like it's going out of style.

You think that the US is still way ahead of them? 

[WestCanMan]

8 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I think Putin is in way over his head

I don't think he has a plan

I think he was expecting this to be a walkover, Ukraine would fold

Putin didn't have a plan B 

TBH I thought that would happen too. On paper it sure looked that way. 

I'm really surprised that the Ukraine forces held out so long.