Fat Trudeau becomes unglued when a Canadian doesn't support his corrupt war in Ukraine

[Dougie93]

15 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

 may feel pressure to negotiate

there is only one way for the Kremlin to apply pressure to negotiate

that is to laterally escalate the conflict to the high seas with their nuclear submarine force

some sort of Cuban Missile Crisis like thermonuclear standoff

[Moonbox]

17 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Unfortunately. Gauging by the wests lack of tolerance for death, it may feel pressure to negotiate once Putin manages to dramatically increase the death toll.

Putin dramatically increases the death toll of his own soldiers along with the Ukrainians.  The West's "tolerance" for casualties is irrelevant because they're not the ones doing any of the dying.  

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

You didn't post crap.

Uh-huh. 

You're such a weasel. Hit the skids Fox, you're going on ignore. 

[CdnFox]

25 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I wouldn't expect Putin to be overthrown

most of the Siloviki are weak cronies

the only formidable one is Patrushev, and he's Putin's mentor, and I don't think he wants to be the boss

Navalny is the only other man who has the political capital to govern,

and they've got him locked away in the GULAG

moreover, most Russians accept Putin's justification for war

that this is an attack by the Americans to destroy Russia

so they are in hunker down mode

I would prepare for the long war;  Cold War II

we'll see. His people may be buying that now, but when they have a  tough time buying other things and when their kids start to come home in body bags in huge numbers then I wonder how things will go. It would be different if they were winning.

I think it's quite possible we'll see some opportunists looking to make a move. But - it's not my field of study so, you may be right.

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Uh-huh. 

You're such a weasel. Hit the skids Fox, you're going on ignore. 

Awww muffin - you go have a cookie and a nap, you'll be fine

LOL - communists get SO dramatic when you prove they're full of it   It's cute to watch, like a monkey flipping out

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

we'll see. His people may be buying that now, but when they have a  tough time buying other things and when their kids start to come home in body bags in huge numbers then I wonder how things will go. It would be different if they were winning.

I think it's quite possible we'll see some opportunists looking to make a move. But - it's not my field of study so, you may be right.

I would not underestimate the Russian capacity to endure privation

they pride themselves as a society on being able to suffer hardship gladly

in terms of casualties, the more casualties the Russians suffer,  the more they will want revenge

this is not like the Soviet Afghan War, this is not a distant foreign intervention

this is existential threat to them, right on their border

and this is how we could get into a thermonuclear standoff in the end

[CdnFox]

8 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Gauging by the wests lack of tolerance for death, it may feel pressure to negotiate

18 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

it is actually in NATO's interests for Putin to destroy Ukraine

as that will be a Pyrrhic victory for the Kremlin

moreover, NATO is not suffering any casualties at all, the Ukrainians are taking the punishment for us

thus we will fight to the last Ukrainian, ruthlessly

This is what i was thinking. The west isn't suffering any 'deaths'.  For the west it's like that scene from Shreck -  "Many of you will die, but that's a sacrifice i'm willing to make".

I think for the west it's more about coming up with the perfect number and types of arms to keep russia in a meat grinder without them actually losing. Right now russia is turning itself into a clawless tiger by burning through all it's tanks and men and that probably works for the allies nicely.

 

[Dougie93]

Just now, CdnFox said:

This is what i was thinking. The west isn't suffering any 'deaths'.  For the west it's like that scene from Shreck -  "Many of you will die, but that's a sacrifice i'm willing to make".

I think for the west it's more about coming up with the perfect number and types of arms to keep russia in a meat grinder without them actually losing. Right now russia is turning itself into a clawless tiger by burning through all it's tanks and men and that probably works for the allies nicely.

 

NATO's obvious objective is to force a stalemate, and have the Kremlin sue for peace at the 2014 status quo line

this is why the Ukrainians only get enough military hardware to keep them in the fight

but not enough for them to overrun the Russians

because again, NATO only fears a thermonuclear confrontation

the concept of operations is for the Ukrainians to stop the Russians

without actually threatening the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol :

because that is the brink of World War Three

[WestCanMan]

2 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

this is existential threat to them, right on their border

and this is how we could get into a thermonuclear standoff in the end

Yup. Having NATO along Ukraine's 3,000km border with Belarus and Russia is also no-go. Putin might as well commit suicide if that happens, and it will mean a massive overhaul of Russian society which I don't think they'll accept.

I don't think they're even going to lose an inch of Crimea before they escalate this conflict in grand fashion. 

We'll see just how far China is going to go to support them in the coming months.

If they see themselves as being powerful enough to go it on their own they'll do just enough to keep the Rus/Ukr thing going, if they think that Russia is a valuable ally then they might use this conflict as a proving grounds for their new weapons systems. 

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

I would not underestimate the Russian capacity to endure privation

they pride themselves as a society on being able to suffer hardship gladly

in terms of casualties, the more casualties the Russians suffer,  the more they will want revenge

this is not like the Soviet Afghan War, this is not a distant foreign intervention

this is existential threat to them, right on their border

and this is how we could get into a thermonuclear standoff in the end

Anything's possible but i think that the US won't blink this time on a nuclear stand off. I think they'll simply say 'fine, get out of ukraine and this is over. Otherwise ..... "  I think they never really felt good a bout how the cuban crisis ended. And putin has been rattling his nuclear saber since the get go.

As you say - this is right on their doorstep. Starting a nuclear war there would be highly questionable for them.

I think this will just grind on and grind on with them losing more and more resources and slowly bleeding them to death till they're sick of it. I think you're correct (previously) and the ukraine probably wont' have the gear or numbers to out and out win, but they'll have offensives that take back land and then the russians will slowly grind their way back only to get slaughtered again and back and forth it will go.

But i dont think this is sustainable forever for the russians

 

 

[CdnFox]

11 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

NATO's obvious objective is to force a stalemate, and have the Kremlin sue for peace at the 2014 status quo line

 

I think they probably know that's optimistic, putin has to have SOMETHING to show for the massive dead and loss of equipment. And meanwhile they won't want to leave ukraine exposed to another attack as soon as putin can build up his arsenal again. So i think they'll be looking for a different ending there than that.

[Dougie93]

11 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

 Right now russia is turning itself into a clawless tiger by burning through all it's tanks and men and that probably works for the allies nicely.

land war is not strategic

he who rules the waves rules the world

so only naval war is strategic

and the arm of decision is the nuclear powered submarine therein

that's the only trump card the Kremlin has to play

if I was playing Orange Force, if I was Mister Ivan

I would laterally escalate into undersea warfare, covert with plausible deniability

deploy my submarines to attack undersea targets

starting with the undersea cables which carry the internet

[Dougie93]

12 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

And meanwhile they won't want to leave ukraine exposed to another attack as soon as putin can build up his arsenal again.

I don't think that is a concern

NATO can provide far more weapons & training to Ukraine as soon as there is a ceasefire

Russia stands no chance of competing in an arms race with the American Military Industrial Complex

[Dougie93]

19 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

 So i think they'll be looking for a different ending there than that.

the end state I predict is that Russia will hold Donetsk, Luhansk & Crimea oblasts

this will become the Inner Ukrainian Border

NATO will then build Ukraine into a proxy capable of rivalling the Russians

then we hunker down at fifteen minutes notice to launch of warning in a Cold War II standoff, indefinitely

[CdnFox]

11 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

land war is not strategic

he who rules the waves rules the world

so only naval war is strategic

and the arm of decision is the nuclear powered submarine therein

that's the only trump card the Kremlin has to play

if I was playing Orange Force, if I was Mister Ivan

I would laterally escalate into undersea warfare, covert with plausible deniability

deploy my submarines to attack undersea targets

starting with the undersea cables which carry the internet

I doubt very much that putin wants to antagonize the US into a wider conflict like that.

And i assure you land is strategic Even britannia who ruled the waves didn't live on them  

Russia is even more vunerable to those kinds of games.  And if something were to 'happen' to their subs.... well it would likely happen so fast they would'nt get a chance to surface or report.

Meanwhile, the grind continues. He still loses gear and men faster than he can replace them every day and that means his ability to project power elsewhere is limited. It can't go on forever.

[CdnFox]

12 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I don't think that is a concern

NATO can provide far more weapons & training to Ukraine as soon as there is a ceasefire

Russia stands no chance of competing in an arms race with the American Military Industrial Complex

That will depend on the terms of the ceasefire.

Russia isn't going to like the idea of giving up all the land AND having a heavily militarized ukraine. They're either going to demand some of the land or an agreement that the allies not rearm the ukrainians. That's what i meant when i said something will have to give.

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

the end state I predict is that Russia will hold Donetsk, Luhansk & Crimea oblasts

this will become the Inner Ukrainian Border

NATO will then build Ukraine into a proxy capable of rivalling the Russians

then we hunker down at fifteen minutes notice to launch of warning in a Cold War II standoff, indefinitely

Quite possible. But i doubt the russkies will like that. That real estate gives them nothing other than a chance to say they didn't completely lose the war. But they lose much having pushed the Ukrainians firmly into the us hands and military.

[Dougie93]

Just now, CdnFox said:

That will depend on the terms of the ceasefire.

Russia isn't going to like the idea of giving up all the land AND having a heavily militarized ukraine. They're either going to demand some of the land or an agreement that the allies not rearm the ukrainians. That's what i meant when i said something will have to give.

we can deny the Ukrainians the power to take back Crimea

but we can't force them to give up more than Donetsk, Luhansk & Crimea

Donetsk, LUhansk & Crimea are Russian for all intents & purposes

the Ukrainians would face an insurgency if they took Donetsk & Luhansk

the Russians would face an insurgency if they tried to hold more than those three oblasts

we would face World War Three if the Russian Black Sea Fleet is threatened in Sevastopol

so the obvious end state is Russia gets the three Russian oblasts

Ukraine gives them up in return for vastly increased capabilities to defend the rest of Ukraine

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

the Ukrainians would face an insurgency if they took Donetsk & Luhansk

Didn't they have that before the war?

 

[Dougie93]

22 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Didn't they have that before the war?

things will settle back to the 2014 status quo line in the end

the Russians already hold what they are capable of holding

the Ukrainians have shown that they can't take it back by force of arms

it's the same stalemate now, for almost a decade

but that is ultimately a win for Ukraine

since taking back Donestsk & Luhansk is more trouble than its worth

those two oblasts are more a burden than a boon

again, this will be the long war scenario,  Cold War II on the Inner Ukrainian Border

then we just wait the Russians out

they are not doing any damage to NATO whatsoever

so we can hold at this line indefinitely

big Red White & Blue machine simply rolls on without them

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93

[WestCanMan]

12 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

the Russians already hold what they are capable of holding

the Ukrainians have shown that they can't take it back by force of arms

According to all the other propaganda I heard from leftists in this forum, the Ukrainians just cut through Russian forces like butter wherever they go. "70,000 Russian soldiers dead, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of airplanes..." compared to a minuscule number of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians (in a genocide, no less. Or maybe a reverse-genocide?).

If the Ruskies die that easily, what's stopping the Ukrainians from just wandering into Moscow? Why don't they send a squad of Krystiyuk Norriskis to slay their way to Red Square and dropkick Putin over the Kremlin, into the Moskva? 

[Dougie93]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

According to all the other propaganda I heard from leftists in this forum, the Ukrainians just cut through Russian forces like butter wherever they go. "70,000 Russian soldiers dead, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of airplanes..." compared to a minuscule number of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians (in a genocide, no less. Or maybe a reverse-genocide?).

If the Ruskies die that easily, what's stopping the Ukrainians from just wandering into Moscow? Why don't they send a squad of Krystiyuk Norriskis to slay their way to Red Square and dropkick Putin over the Kremlin, into the Moskva? 

it is clear that the Ukrainian forces are superior at the tactical level

the Russians simply have too much mass for them to be overrun

but a stalemate on this line is a win for the Ukrainians

since again, what the Russians hold is more of a burden than a boon

there is nothing of worth in Donetsk & Luhansk

Ukraine should obviously give those up in return for being made by NATO into the Israel of Eastern of Europe

[Dougie93]

34 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

According to all the other propaganda I heard from leftists in this forum, 

I don't play that game

this is not a culture war bun fight with me

I'm an old school Cold Warrior

I am on the right, with Dutch Reagan

but if the Democrats are suddenly seized with a desire to confront Mister Ivan, for whatever reason

so be it, I'll take the Ship Submersible Nuclear Fast Attack Submarines from whomever I can get them

me & Dutch Reagan will cut a deal with Tip O'Neil

so long as we get the arms of decision we need, to keep the Third World War at bay

MAGA

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93

[CdnFox]

22 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

it is clear that the Ukrainian forces are superior at the tactical level

the Russians simply have too much mass for them to be overrun

They ran pretty well last summer

I"m inclined to belleve you when you say that the Ukrainians have not now nor will they be armed well enough to actually defeat the russians entirely. However they have demonstrated that they are quite capable of limited offensives that break the russians locally and force them to give up a lot of ground.

I don't think they're done with that yet.  The russians have mass but it seems to me just looking at it that they have horrible coordination and communication. It seems like if you hit the right peg there a lot of that house might come crashing down. I feel like the ukrainians are just waiting till better weather and draining the russians as much as they can without using up their own forces more than necessary. I feel like they could very suddenly take the land below kherson right  up to the crimea border and north a fair ways.

[Dougie93]

32 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

They ran pretty well last summer

I"m inclined to belleve you when you say that the Ukrainians have not now nor will they be armed well enough to actually defeat the russians entirely. However they have demonstrated that they are quite capable of limited offensives that break the russians locally and force them to give up a lot of ground.

the operating word being limited

for the Ukrainians to execute an envelopment of the Russians on what is a 700 mile front

they would need exponentially more

not hundreds of tanks, thousands of tanks

not hundreds of artillery pieces, thousands of artillery pieces

and they would need hundreds of F-16's & Apaches to employ combined arms air land battle

but then they would overrun the Russians

at which point, the Russians could escalate in a panic, to all out war

which is why NATO is adopting the incremental concept of operations instead

inherent Russian weakness in the face of vast NATO superiority

binds us to be very careful

you do not want to be facing a severely wounded animal forced into a corner in a panic

when he is holding thousands of thermonuclear warheads and the submarines to deliver them

again, George Kennan had the winning strategy, and it is called Containment

we man the trace, we hold the line, we wait them out, until the Wall falls under its own weight

let them wallow behind their iron curtain for as long they please

 America has all the time in the world

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dougie93