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Russian Army collapsing - the unsurprising failure of a police-state


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Back in February we all probably assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine with or without western arms assistance.  NATO wasn't going to set up a no-fly zone and the Russian air force was going to dismantle Ukrainian communications and infrastructure, interdict military maneuvers and allow the Russian armoured fist to encircle and isolate Ukrainian forces with ease. 

Fast forward some months, and the Russian army in Ukraine is crumbling.  Not only did their advances stall months ago, they're now losing large swathes of territory and facing encirclement in Lyman -  a major hub in eastern Ukraine which will open up all of the Donbass to Ukrainian operations.  

What was previously understood as a military juggernaut has been revealed as an utterly dysfunctional institution - corrupt and incompetent from top to bottom and in almost every way.  Corruption has drained the public coffers and left the Russian army outdated, poorly supplied/equipped and with incompetent/ineffective leadership.   While Ukrainian officers are empowered to take initiative and seize opportunities where they arise (per western military tradition), their confused and unmotivated Russian counterparts are unwilling to do much of anything without explicit orders from their superiors.  This isn't out of cowardice - it would be hard to find a people more stoic than the Russians.  What they fear is being held responsible for failure and the decisions they made.  They therefore elect to make none at all.  Your superiors can't hold you responsible for obeying their orders, and so nothing gets done without them.  

When lies form the bedrock of a regime like Putin's, it permeates everything.  It's not just a matter of Putin and his cronies lying to the people.  Everyone is lying to everyone.  Leadership lies to subordinates to coerce and manipulate them, who in turn fear speaking their minds and lie right back to them.  These lies become second nature and pretty soon everyone is lying to everyone.  Bribery and corruption are the norm.  Cooked books and reports are presented to officers/leaders, who in turn cook them further up the chain.  The end result is a detachment from reality where decisions are made based on inaccurate or downright absurd information.  When the inevitable disasters roll in, leadership assigns blame for the bad information, failing to realize that they'd created an environment that made reliable information almost impossible. 

This is a negative feedback loop that has played out many times before, and especially in Russia's case leads to ruin.  We're witnessing the end of Putin's regime.  Whether he goes out quietly and the Russian Federation reforms, or he's dragged kicking and screaming - the rot has become apparent.  Lies have a habit of catching up to you, and in Putin's case too many soldiers are going to Ukraine and dying without ever seeing a Nazi or NATO soldier.  They're telling their families about it.  The plausibility of the Kremlin's narrative is fraying, and Russian soldiers (particularly conscripts) will not entertain dying for nothing for long.  

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Didn't those eastern provinces just hold yet another referendum and DEMOC4ATICLY vote to leave Ukraine? Yes they did...for the second time.

Where all all the great defenders of DEMOCRACY now?

Ignoring their claims about DEMOCRACY...more Libbie hypocrisy. 

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1 hour ago, Nationalist said:

Didn't those eastern provinces just hold yet another referendum and DEMOC4ATICLY vote to leave Ukraine? Yes they did...for the second time.

Where all all the great defenders of DEMOCRACY now?

Ignoring their claims about DEMOCRACY...more Libbie hypocrisy. 

We will come and kick you out of your house then we will take a vote to decide if it is ours. Nationalist's idea of democracy.

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48 minutes ago, Aristides said:

We will come and kick you out of your house then we will take a vote to decide if it is ours. Nationalist's idea of democracy.

Who got kicked out of their house?

They held 2...not 1...2 referendums and...Ukraine lost. That's what?

That's right...that's democracy.

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3 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Who got kicked out of their house?

They held 2...not 1...2 referendums and...Ukraine lost. That's what?

That's right...that's democracy.

To start with, the 4 million Ukrainian refugees who have had to flee their homes.

Edited by Aristides
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Just now, Aristides said:

To start with, the 5 million Ukrainian refugees who have had to flee their homes.

Oh ya...all the Ukrainian refugees come from the eastern provinces...rrriiight.

Apparently women children and grannies. Able bodied males weren't allowed to flee. Such stupidity.

Just wait till Hungary, Slovakia and Poland want their historical land back.

This whole thing is a fool's errand.

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18 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Back in February we all probably assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine with or without western arms assistance.  NATO wasn't going to set up a no-fly zone and the Russian air force was going to dismantle Ukrainian communications and infrastructure, interdict military maneuvers and allow the Russian armoured fist to encircle and isolate Ukrainian forces with ease. 

Fast forward some months, and the Russian army in Ukraine is crumbling.  Not only did their advances stall months ago, they're now losing large swathes of territory and facing encirclement in Lyman -  a major hub in eastern Ukraine which will open up all of the Donbass to Ukrainian operations.  

What was previously understood as a military juggernaut has been revealed as an utterly dysfunctional institution - corrupt and incompetent from top to bottom and in almost every way.  Corruption has drained the public coffers and left the Russian army outdated, poorly supplied/equipped and with incompetent/ineffective leadership.   While Ukrainian officers are empowered to take initiative and seize opportunities where they arise (per western military tradition), their confused and unmotivated Russian counterparts are unwilling to do much of anything without explicit orders from their superiors.  This isn't out of cowardice - it would be hard to find a people more stoic than the Russians.  What they fear is being held responsible for failure and the decisions they made.  They therefore elect to make none at all.  Your superiors can't hold you responsible for obeying their orders, and so nothing gets done without them.  

When lies form the bedrock of a regime like Putin's, it permeates everything.  It's not just a matter of Putin and his cronies lying to the people.  Everyone is lying to everyone.  Leadership lies to subordinates to coerce and manipulate them, who in turn fear speaking their minds and lie right back to them.  These lies become second nature and pretty soon everyone is lying to everyone.  Bribery and corruption are the norm.  Cooked books and reports are presented to officers/leaders, who in turn cook them further up the chain.  The end result is a detachment from reality where decisions are made based on inaccurate or downright absurd information.  When the inevitable disasters roll in, leadership assigns blame for the bad information, failing to realize that they'd created an environment that made reliable information almost impossible. 

This is a negative feedback loop that has played out many times before, and especially in Russia's case leads to ruin.  We're witnessing the end of Putin's regime.  Whether he goes out quietly and the Russian Federation reforms, or he's dragged kicking and screaming - the rot has become apparent.  Lies have a habit of catching up to you, and in Putin's case too many soldiers are going to Ukraine and dying without ever seeing a Nazi or NATO soldier.  They're telling their families about it.  The plausibility of the Kremlin's narrative is fraying, and Russian soldiers (particularly conscripts) will not entertain dying for nothing for long.  

Said hysteric CNN bot

Edited by athos
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1 hour ago, Nationalist said:

Oh ya...all the Ukrainian refugees come from the eastern provinces...rrriiight.

Apparently women children and grannies. Able bodied males weren't allowed to flee. Such stupidity.

Just wait till Hungary, Slovakia and Poland want their historical land back.

This whole thing is a fool's errand.

A lot of them are. First ethnically cleanse, then put a gun to the head of any that remain and force them to vote the way you want in clear violation of international law. BTW, those grannies are real people who had the vote. 

Democracy Russian (and Nationalist) style given to you by the same people who would give you ten years in jail for calling this a war. How stupid can you be.

NATO is a defensive alliance. It doesn't matter what the territorial ambitions of Hungary, Slovakia and Poland might be, the rest of NATO won't go to war to make them a reality.

Edited by Aristides
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1 hour ago, Aristides said:

A lot of them are. First ethnically cleanse, then put a gun to the head of any that remain and force them to vote the way you want in clear violation of international law. BTW, those grannies are real people who had the vote. 

Democracy Russian (and Nationalist) style given to you by the same people who would give you ten years in jail for calling this a war. How stupid can you be.

NATO is a defensive alliance. It doesn't matter what the territorial ambitions of Hungary, Slovakia and Poland might be, the rest of NATO won't go to war to make them a reality.

'A lot of them are'...good lord...

Bottom line. 2 referendums...2 votes for independence from Ukraine. 

You wanna have a world war over a NATO reject and a whole bunch of ethnic Russians who want to be part of Russia again.

Any idea who absolutely STUPID that idea is?

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27 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

'A lot of them are'...good lord...

Bottom line. 2 referendums...2 votes for independence from Ukraine. 

You wanna have a world war over a NATO reject and a whole bunch of ethnic Russians who want to be part of Russia again.

Any idea who absolutely STUPID that idea is?

Illegal referendums that violate international law.

I guess laws are an inconvenience for a guy who approves of the invading sovereign states and "democracy" at the point of a gun.

Of course if Russia wanted a real referendum they could have asked for one presided over by the UN but the would never happen because REFERENDUMS HELD IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES VIOLATE INTERNATIONAL LAW.

Edited by Aristides
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32 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

'A lot of them are'...good lord...

Bottom line. 2 referendums...2 votes for independence from Ukraine. 

You wanna have a world war over a NATO reject and a whole bunch of ethnic Russians who want to be part of Russia again.

Any idea who absolutely STUPID that idea is?

If you are so concerned about a world war, talk to your buddies in the Kremlin who started this war. You probable think Hitler's invasion of Poland was Poland's fault.

Edited by Aristides
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9 hours ago, Aristides said:

Illegal referendums that violate international law.

I guess laws are an inconvenience for a guy who approves of the invading sovereign states and "democracy" at the point of a gun.

Of course if Russia wanted a real referendum they could have asked for one presided over by the UN but the would never happen because REFERENDUMS HELD IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES VIOLATE INTERNATIONAL LAW.

And you can prove I think invading sovereign states is OK...or go fix your skirt.

The first referendum was done without and Russian presence. 

I follow truth. The truth is...Ukraine originally sent neo-nazis to attack the ethnic Russians in the Eastern provinces. There was a war there way before Russia invaded.

But you brainwashed li'l Tweenkies are apparently incapable of understanding anything but the edicts of failed networks like CNN. You would advocate for WWIII if your media wanted you to. Regardless of ALL THE FACTS.

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9 hours ago, Aristides said:

If you are so concerned about a world war, talk to your buddies in the Kremlin who started this war. You probable think Hitler's invasion of Poland was Poland's fault.

Lol...oh goodie. We're gonna play unsubstantiated accusations now.

OK.

You probably think Biden knows what day it is and is making any decisions on his own. I bet you even think biological males can give birth too. In other words...you're a flippin' zombie.

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44 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

You probably think Biden knows what day it is.

I think they should put you in charge. 

Nationalist from re:politics with the bunnie picture for President. 

Edited by Contrarian
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16 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Who got kicked out of their house?

They held 2...not 1...2 referendums and...Ukraine lost. That's what?

That's right...that's democracy.

I thought first you had the referendum, then annexation into the Russian fold, I guess Russia does things a little backwards.

A what is to stop anyone from just deciding they want a small chunk of the neighbor's land. Or is it alright if you have nukes?

And the annexation was never the reason to attack Ukraine, sorry launch a "special operation" It was all about, get rid of the Nazi's and rescue Ukrainians that speak Russia.

 

 

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On 9/30/2022 at 1:14 PM, sharkman said:

Ah, this must be why the Chinese police state has seen their army collapse long ago.

When was the last time you saw the Chinese army conduct large-scale war?  The police state is very good at keeping people under its boot.  It's not good at much beyond that.  

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20 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Didn't those eastern provinces just hold yet another referendum and DEMOC4ATICLY vote to leave Ukraine? Yes they did...for the second time.

A referendum under armed occupation, where there was no option offering, "Stay as part as Ukraine."

Pretty funny stuff Mr. Clown.  

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1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

When was the last time you saw the Chinese army conduct large-scale war?  The police state is very good at keeping people under its boot.  It's not good at much beyond that.  

How many military actions has Russia conducted since Afghanistan?

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