The road to 2020

[Argus]

On 11/23/2019 at 3:48 AM, bush_cheney2004 said:

Being a "frontrunner" only means that the other candidates will attack you in televised debates.

And that the President of the United States will blackmail foreign governments to 'investigate' you for alleged corruption. And that the Russians will target you on social media on behalf of their beloved pet president.

[Doug1943]

The 'Brexit' (and 'right-wing populism') phenomena in Europe, and the Trump phenomenon in the US, are just manifestations of a general trend. It's worth while to step back from immediate events and look at that trend.

The whole world is entering a very dangerous phase ... a sort of intensification of the end of the "long 19th Century" which ended in August 1914.  Our technological advances have far outrun our social/institutional advances.

There are no real objective conflicts of interest among the Great Powers  (which means, nuclear powers, or those, like Japan and Germany, which could quickly become nuclear). No one is looking conquor colonies. If the nations of the earth simply traded with each other, and got on with research in genetics, materials science, and other frontier areas, our descendants would have long happy lives. But the coming-together of the Great Powers for mutual interest has not happened.

Bad decisions in the past are having very bad effects today: the Third World was given its independence too early and abruptly, and misrule there is forcing millions to try to flee to the civilized countries, where a gigantic racial backlash is brewing.  The Americans kept the Latin Americans from modernizing, with a similar effect.  The Russians, having discarded Communism and their Eastern European empire peacefully, were treated with contempt and looted, sparking a nasty nationalist backlash in that country. China's rise to world dominance is inexorable - the Americans have not taken on board that they will soon, historically speaking, be Number Two in the world. (If America exists at all as a single country.)

And for reasons which are -- to me at least -- obscure, Western culture, led by the US, is rotting from within.

The future is not predictable, but it would be unwise to assume that, because today was pretty much like yesterday, that this can be interpolated indefinitely into the future. It would be prudent to prepare for turbulent times. We take for granted a steady supply of electricity and clean water (okay, not in the Third World and Calfornia), that there will be food available in the shops, and that the police will protect us from rampaging mobs.  It wouldn't be wrong to spend a few hours thinking about how one would deal with a situation where this was, for a period of time, not true. What preparations should one have made in advance?  A few hours thinking, a few hours of effort, a few hundred dollars ... could make a lot of difference should the 'pessimistic variant' ever come about. If it doesn't, you've only wasted a small fraction of your time and resources.

It seems to me that this is good advice for both liberals and conservatives, who will want to prepare in almost identical ways. ('Almost' identical: liberals of course will not want to have anything to do with guns, and in case of general low availability of food, will want to share their food with the large numbers of hungry people who will be looking for it. Conservatives, the other way around.)

There are lots of 'survivalist' and 'prepper' websites around where you can get advice (and where people are keen to make a dollar by selling things to you),  and I'm sure they are worth while. But ... it seems to me that most of them are very individualist.  They seem to foresee a single family 'holding out', perhaps in a rural retreat.  But in a general collapse, survival will be highest among organized groups. (This is one place where the instincts of the Left are superior to those of the Right.) So something like a 'neighborhood emergency response' committee would seem like the way to go, if you can convince enough of your neighbors to take part.

Interesting times!  Even civilized, boring, normal Canada may not be exempt!  At a minimum, you may have to deal with millions of obnoxious American refugees!

 

 

[Moonlight Graham]

Biden is a bumbling idiot and going senile.  He's connected to Obama, which is why he's leading.  Unfortunately there's very few other decent centre-left or moderate candidates in the current pack for the Democrats.

If Trump was removed and replaced with someone who shares Trump's general "America First" philosophy but did in a way that wasn't arrogant, ignorant, and racist, then i'd want them to win.  We need someone to stand up to China and sweet old grandma Warren isn't going to do it, nor did Mr. Nice Guy Obama.

[bush_cheney2004]

3 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

If Trump was removed and replaced with someone who shares Trump's general "America First" philosophy but did in a way that wasn't arrogant, ignorant, and racist, then i'd want them to win.  We need someone to stand up to China and sweet old grandma Warren isn't going to do it, nor did Mr. Nice Guy Obama.

 

No such person or combination exists in American politics today...even Ronald Reagan was accused of being senile, ignorant, and racist, but he polled at 70% in Canada.

Standing up to China begins at home.

[Moonlight Graham]

32 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

No such person or combination exists in American politics today...even Ronald Reagan was accused of being senile, ignorant, and racist, but he polled at 70% in Canada.

Exactly, no such person exists.  Nobody has the balls except a narcissist megalomaniac.  People and politicians everywhere need to grow balls.

Quote

Standing up to China begins at home.

Standing up to China won't be done without the west's biggest economy which does an insane amount of business with them.  This is a thread about the US election.  I will comment as I please.  If it gives you rug burn, sit on some ice.  The entirety of the West needs to stand up to China and they need to do it together, they need to form a bloc and f*** them hard to show them who's boss.

 

[bush_cheney2004]

24 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Exactly, no such person exists.  Nobody has the balls except a narcissist megalomaniac.  People and politicians everywhere need to grow balls.

 

Trump is just another American president who will be gone no matter what.   Then there will be another with far less "balls".   

 

Quote

Standing up to China won't be done without the west's biggest economy which does an insane amount of business with them.  This is a thread about the US election.  I will comment as I please.  If it gives you rug burn, sit on some ice.  The entirety of the West needs to stand up to China and they need to do it together, they need to form a bloc and f*** them hard to show them who's boss.

 

Nobody said you shouldn't comment as you please, but always looking to America to lead the "west" means living with America's choices, and for now that means President Donald Trump.   Trump is not wrong in representing part of America that is tired of paying most the bill, which is what "together" usually means.  China has every right to pursue its own interests as well, "west" be damned and that includes the impotent European Union.

Edited November 29, 2019 by bush_cheney2004

[Cannucklehead]

3 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Trump is just another American president who will be gone no matter what.   Then there will be another with far less "balls".   

 

 

Nobody said you shouldn't comment as you please, but always looking to America to lead the "west" means living with America's choices, and for now that means President Donald Trump.   Trump is not wrong in representing part of America that is tired of paying most the bill, which is what "together" usually means.  China has every right to pursue its own interests as well, "west" be damned and that includes the impotent European Union.

Far less balls, maybe.  Far more deficit, definitely.  

Obama added a total of $8.5 trillion to the debt during his two terms. But if Trump stays in office for two terms, he will add $9 trillion. Trump has betrayed his campaign promise to eliminate the debt. Even in his first four years, he's adding $5 trillion. That's as much as Obama did while he was fighting the worst recession since the Great Depression.

[bush_cheney2004]

13 minutes ago, Cannucklehead said:

Far less balls, maybe.  Far more deficit, definitely.  

 

 

More confirmation that Trump is just another American president....63% of the U.S. federal budget is non-discretionary anyway.

...and the Democrats still haven't figured out how to defeat him....they can't scream "deficits !" because of Obama.

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by bush_cheney2004

[Moonlight Graham]

10 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Nobody said you shouldn't comment as you please, but always looking to America to lead the "west" means living with America's choices, and for now that means President Donald Trump.   Trump is not wrong in representing part of America that is tired of paying most the bill, which is what "together" usually means.  China has every right to pursue its own interests as well, "west" be damned and that includes the impotent European Union.

A population with 36 million isn't going to challenge China economically very well when an economy with 300 million.  Canada will do what it can to protect its interests (hopefully) but the US and EU are the biggest entities economically in the west and 2 of the most powerful in the world.  China will pursue its own interests and they'll swallow us up in a few decades if we let them and don't pursue ours.

[bush_cheney2004]

6 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

A population with 36 million isn't going to challenge China economically very well when an economy with 300 million.  Canada will do what it can to protect its interests (hopefully) but the US and EU are the biggest entities economically in the west and 2 of the most powerful in the world.  China will pursue its own interests and they'll swallow us up in a few decades if we let them and don't pursue ours.

 

All nation states logically pursue there own interests first...this is true whether it be China, Canada, or the United States.   The EU is a separate critter with a larger population than America, but is seemingly held to a weaker/lower standard vis-a-vis "standing up to" China.    American policy (like Canada's) has sought to engage and develop China's economy for/with western market investment for over 25 years.   China will not be deterred from realizing the potential that a population of 1.5 BILLION middle class consumers represents.   China is now # 1 in many business sectors.

Frankly, I find the reliance on President Trump as the strongman trade and military leader against China while holding him is such despicable low regard to be quite comical, given that many other "western" nations/leaders lack the will and means to do so.   Canada would be doing so regardless of who is U.S. president.

My political expectation is that Trump will seek to settle with China to win on trade at some level before the 2020 election, if only to take the sting out of criticisms for his sledgehammer tariffs, just as he did with Canada and Mexico.   But this does not mean that China will be stopped from pursuing its regional and global strategy.

There are limits to American power that even Trump has to respect.    Can't fight the Chinese, Russians, radical Islamists, narco states, etc. while keeping other foreign minister(s) happy on trade and the "post WW2 order" with far less contributions from the "west".

 

[Cannucklehead]

If america is so intent on ending the post ww2 order they would resolve the issue of Israel.

 

Not in this lifetime I bet.  

[bush_cheney2004]

5 hours ago, Cannucklehead said:

If america is so intent on ending the post ww2 order they would resolve the issue of Israel.

 

Not in this lifetime I bet.  

 

Israel resolved the issue of Israel, regardless of what America (or presidential candidates) think about it.

Edited November 30, 2019 by bush_cheney2004

[Dougie93]

The Postwar Order is destroying itself, America can't save liberalism, it's a pathology not a cause.

James Burnham knows

“that jellyfish brand of contemporary liberalism—pious, guilt-ridden, do-goody—which uses the curious dogma of ‘some truth on both sides’ as its principal sales line.”

 

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

The Postwar Order is destroying itself, America can't save liberalism, it's a pathology not a cause.

James Burnham knows

“that jellyfish brand of contemporary liberalism—pious, guilt-ridden, do-goody—which uses the curious dogma of ‘some truth on both sides’ as its principal sales line.”

A society that is quite wealthy historically peaking and has all it's basic needs met (and far more in our case) and doesn't have to worry much about survival needs being met (food, shelter, political stability, violence & basic safety etc) has the convenience of being able to be "pious, guilt-ridden, do-goody".  A society like China is mostly still very poor and still has to scrape and claw for its life.  It's not interested in charity or being nice, it doesn't have the luxury.

I think it's a natural result of the west's wealth and standard of living to start to decay.  I think once we've decayed enough people will realize change is necessary and the pendulum will swing the other way again where our self-interests will be given higher priority again.  Trump and European populism is a result of that.  ie: Most of Europe is wealthy enough to welcome and support some refugees in need, but there's a limit the # and the generosity and at some point the local population turns around and says "hey what about me"?

[Moonlight Graham]

What's the saying? 

Weak times create strong people. Strong people create strong times.  Strong times create weak people. Weak people create weak times.  Weak times create strong people....and cycle continues.

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

A society that is quite wealthy historically peaking and has all it's basic needs met (and far more in our case) and doesn't have to worry much about survival needs being met (food, shelter, political stability, violence & basic safety etc) has the convenience of being able to be "pious, guilt-ridden, do-goody".  A society like China is mostly still very poor and still has to scrape and claw for its life.  It's not interested in charity or being nice, it doesn't have the luxury.

I think it's a natural result of the west's wealth and standard of living to start to decay.  I think once we've decayed enough people will realize change is necessary and the pendulum will swing the other way again where our self-interests will be given higher priority again.  Trump and European populism is a result of that.  ie: Most of Europe is wealthy enough to welcome and support some refugees in need, but there's a limit the # and the generosity and at some point the local population turns around and says "hey what about me"?

50% of Canadians are on the brink of bankruptcy, cost of living crisis incited by the dictatorship of the Elites, hard times will come, populism will ascend in Canada too.

[Moonlight Graham]

3 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

50% of Canadians are on the brink of bankruptcy, cost of living crisis incited by the dictatorship of the Elites, hard times will come, populism will ascend in Canada too.

Weak times are coming when the bubble bursts.  Decadence causes decay.

[Moonlight Graham]

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger.  Embrace it.

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

What's the saying? 

Weak times create strong people. Strong people create strong times.  Strong times create weak people. Weak people create weak times.  Weak times create strong people....and cycle continues.

When the next crisis comes, the 50% of Canadians who are on the brink will default, that will drag the provinces down, that will drag the Confederation itself into crisis

Vive le Quebec libre.

[Dougie93]

Just now, Moonlight Graham said:

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger.  Embrace it.

Not actually true. 

What doesn't kill you breaks you down slowly until you are weak enough to succumb to mortality in the end.

Entropy is the nature of the universe, whether you embrace it or not.

[Moonlight Graham]

3 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Weak times are coming when the bubble bursts.  Decadence causes decay.

In the meantime, if others have the luxury of being weak, or relying on mommy and daddy and the state for survival, but you can make yourself and your children strong then do it, you'll end up far ahead of most people.

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

In the meantime, if others have the luxury of being weak, or relying on mommy and daddy and the state for survival, but you can make yourself and your children strong then do it, you'll end up far ahead of most people.

I wouldn't have children in Canada, don't let your progeny be raised by this Post National State, spare yourself the trouble.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Dougie93

[Moonlight Graham]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

I wouldn't have children in Canada, don't let your progeny be raised by this Post National State, spare yourself the trouble.

Don't let the state and media brainwash your kids, it's not hard.  Just remind them from an early age it's all lies, and show them why.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Moonlight Graham

[Dougie93]

Just now, Moonlight Graham said:

Don't let the state and media brainwash your kids, it's not hard.  Just remind them from an early age it's all lies, and show them why.

The public school system will brainwash them, you're naive if you think you can stop it, your children will turn on you if you try.

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

The public school system will brainwash them, you're naive if you think you can stop it, your children will turn on you if you try.

Wrong.  There's still conservative kids out there, obviously didn't get to them.  Didn't get to someone like Ben Shapiro.