bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Democrats have weighed it already, and the gaffes and alleged dementia haven't moved the needle at all. There is no real needle yet....primary season begins next year. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: There is no real needle yet....primary season begins next year. Please. At this stage in the game, it's baked into the cake, you are engaging in wishful thinking. The Democrats are aware of the gaffes and the "dementia", it's not a new development, and they don't care. If they did care, it would have shown up by now, not had zero effect whatsoever. That stuff plays with swing voters, but not a good chunk of Democrat primary voters, and a chunk large enough to win the 2020 Dem nomination rather easily I might add. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Please. At this stage in the game, it's baked into the cake, you are engaging in wishful thinking. The Democrats are aware of the gaffes and the "dementia", it's not a new development, and they don't care. OK, but if you don't mind, we will still hold primary elections and caucuses...'cause that's how we roll. Biden has already effed it up twice before. ...and when he does it again (see your own admission above), they will turn on him. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: OK, but if you don't mind, we will still hold primary elections and caucuses...'cause that's how we roll. Biden has already effed it up twice before. ...and when he does it again (see your own admission above), they will turn on him. It's still possible he blows it, I'm not saying don't bother with the primary, but I am saying that nothing that has happened to this point will be his undoing, only new developments could achieve that. He is still the frontrunner, all the other candidates are weaker than him, writing him off just because he has screwed up before is a mistake. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: It's still possible he blows it, I'm not saying don't bother with the primary, but I am saying that nothing that has happened to this point will be his undoing, only new developments could achieve that. He is still the frontrunner, all the other candidates are weaker than him. The process has not forced his expected faults yet, but it will, as pressure and competing special interests exact their price. Biden is just another also ran who thought they had the nomination in the bag, only to fall short. Nobody gets it that easy. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: The process has not forced his expected faults yet, but it will, as pressure and competing special interests exact their price. Biden is just another also ran who thought they had the nomination in the bag, only to fall short. Nobody gets it that easy. They do when the field is this weak. The process going forward is unlikely to force his expected faults in a way that costs him the nomination, though could still happen, because it's Joe Biden. He has proven more durable under pressure than all the other candidates. You are tunnel visioning on Biden's weakness and diminishing the weaknesses of his opponents relative to him. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: They do when the field is this weak. The process going forward is unlikely to force his expected faults. He has proven more durable under pressure than all the other candidates. You are tunnel visioning on Biden's weakness and diminishing the weaknesses of his opponents relative to him. And you are in the bag for Biden no matter what...not sure why. Go ahead and crown his ass if you want, just don't be surprised if it doesn't work out. Let the process play out....no big hurry. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: And you are in the bag for Biden no matter what...not sure why. Go ahead and crown his ass if you want, just don't be surprised if it doesn't work out. Let the process play out....no big hurry. I want Biden to lose, I want the Democrats to go Full McGovern, I just don't think that is the most likely scenario. I am not in the bag for him, I acknowledge Biden is a weak candidate, but you don't seem willing to acknowledge just how weak the other candidates are, relative to him, and that's what will carry him to victory. Against a strong or even average field, Biden would get wrecked, but the Democrats have a mighty thin bench, apparently you haven't noticed due to tunnel visioning on Biden's weaknesses. My assessment is not based on wishful thinking, the Biden haters who think he's doomed seem to be engaging in an awful lot of wishful thinking on the other hand. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: I want Biden to lose. I am not in the bag for him, I acknowledge Biden is a weak candidate, but you don't seem willing to acknowledge just how weak the other candidates are, relative to him. Most are weak, but a few are not. The internal DNC fighting over ideology vs. beating Trump could go either way. I don't care who they select....none of them are going to replicate Obama electoral orgasms. All I want is for Trump to have his 2020 swing at bat....win or lose. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Most are weak, but a few are not. The internal DNC fighting over ideology vs. beating Trump could go either way. I don't care who they select....none of them are going to replicate Obama electoral orgasms. All I want is for Trump to have his 2020 swing at bat....win or lose. They are all weak, there are not a few who are not, fake news. Could go either way, but Biden should be the clear favorite. Half McGovern, Full McGovern, makes little difference, Trump will smash them either way. The Dems have run too far away from center, especially in this primary, to make up the ground in the general election, if they even try, and even if they run Biden or Buttigieg. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: They are all weak, there are not a few who are not, fake news. Could go either way, but Biden should be the clear favorite. Half McGovern, Full McGovern, makes little difference, Trump will smash them either way. Biden cannot win the nomination by being the strongest "weak" candidate today...there would be multiple convention ballots and horse trading...which is how the likes of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton emerge as the ultimate candidate. Democrats are like herding cats. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Biden cannot win the nomination by being the strongest "weak" candidate today...there would be multiple convention ballots and horse trading...which is how the likes of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton emerge as the ultimate candidate. Democrats are like herding cats. Biden seems likely to win before a brokered convention, due to having the South on lock and the superdelegates are more likely to side with him than against him, should it get to that point, that's a deadly combination. Like he's winning in every state that isn't Iowa or New Hampshire, he could be the first candidate since 1972 to lose both and still win the nomination, that's how weak this field is. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Biden seems likely to win before a brokered convention, and the superdelegates are more likely to side with him than against him. Even that has changed after the Clinton-Sanders fiasco. Biden is going to have to earn it.....primary by primary....just like anybody else. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Even that has changed after the Clinton-Sanders fiasco. Biden is going to have to earn it.....primary by primary....just like anybody else. Right and once he starts cleaning up in the South, the snowball effect will have him earn it. The only way he loses, is if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire and one of other candidates win both, and then he loses his grip on the south somehow as a result. But none of the viable candidates has any black support, and even if one of them wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, that is unlikely to move the needle much in the South, the demographics are completely different. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Right and once he starts cleaning up in the South, the snowball effect will have him earn it. The only he loses if he loses his grip on the south, and none of the viable candidates has any black support. Maybe, but if he performs badly before the South then it will not be so easy. Biden is not a viable VP choice, nor would he accept that again, so it's all or nothing. The American political graveyard is littered with candidates who thought they had it in the bag before the game begins. 'Tis the grandest form of political blood sport for all the world to see....and Canada will be watching...as usual. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Maybe, but if he performs badly before the South then it will not be so easy. Indeed, that's the only way he can lose. Problem for Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg is, that once they get out of the white rural states, their support drops off dramatically and Biden is leading in all of the demographically diverse urban/rural states. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Indeed, that's the only way he can lose. Problem for Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg is, that once they get out of the white rural states, their support drops off dramatically and Biden is leading in all of the demographically diverse urban/rural states. Biden is only leading by single digits in some cases...he still has a lot of work to do...if he can stay awake long enough. This is his third try....so much love for Joe Biden ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Biden is only leading by single digits in some cases...he still has a lot of work to do...if he can stay awake long enough. This is his third try....so much love for Joe Biden ! I don't get this trying to pretend a candidate isn't a frontrunner when they are leading in most of the states and nationally, regardless of the margin in some of those states and nationally. His margins are quite large in the South, all the candidates winning in states that Biden isn't winning in aren't winning by much, even in their strongest territory, they aren't polling much better than Biden. Like I say, all other candidates are in a much weaker position than he is, they have far more work to do than he does. Stop focusing on Biden's weaknesses for a little while, and start looking into the weaknesses of the other viable candidates, and you'll begin to see what I am getting at. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Yzermandius19 said: I don't get this trying to pretend a candidate isn't a frontrunner when they are leading in most the states, regardless of the margin in some of them. So what ? Biden has to perform in elections and caucuses. 28%...that's not very confidence inspiring. Biden has won nothing to date...because he can't. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: So what ? Biden has to perform in elections and caucuses. 28%...that's not very confidence inspiring. Biden has won nothing to date...because he can't. You know what's not very confidence inspiring? Polling under 20% nationally, with the frontrunner ahead in the vast majority of states, by larger margins than you are ahead in states that are your strongest territory. Like I say, the other candidates are in a much weaker position, you simply haven't stopped to notice this, because you are tunnel visioning on Biden's weaknesses and have written him off before you even compare him to the competition. Biden has won nothing to date, because he wasn't in a field this weak running as Obama's former VP in 1988 and 2008. Not because he can't win no matter what. 1988 was a pretty weak field, hence Dukakis, but 2020 makes it look strong by comparison. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Yzermandius19 said: You know what's not very confidence inspiring? Polling under 20% nationally, with the frontrunner ahead in the vast majority of states, by larger margins than you are ahead in states that are your strongest territory. Like I say, the other candidates are in a much weaker position, you simply haven't stopped to notice this, because you are tunnel visioning on Biden's weaknesses and have written him off before you even compare him to the competition. Nonsense....Americans are force fed polling results via many media outlets, before and after the partisan pony show debates and in between. I am very much aware of Bidens "BIG" lead and the gap that is being closed by the other "weaker" candidates. Even Biden wouldn't be so stupid to assume he has this thing won. "Frontrunner" means nothing until the votes are counted. Hillary Clinton thought she was the "frontrunner" too in the 2016 general election. Quote Biden has won nothing to date, because he wasn't in a field this weak running as Obama's former VP in 1988 and 2008. Not because he can't win no matter what. The point was that Joe Biden does not have any magic advantage over the others, or he would have prevailed before. He could win the nomination, but he is not assured of doing so based on today's circumstances. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: The point was that Joe Biden does not have any magic advantage over the others, or he would have prevailed before. He could win the nomination, but he is not assured of doing so based on today's circumstances. Never claimed he did have a magical advantage, or that he cannot lose. My claim is that this field is so weak, he can actually win this time, and today's circumstances are more advantageous to him, than any other candidate running, and the circumstance a few months from now are likely to play to his advantage more than any other candidate as well. Writing him off before the voting even happens, is a mistake. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Yzermandius19 said: Never claimed he did have a magical advantage, or that he cannot lose. My claim is that this field is so weak, he can actually win this time, and today's circumstances are more advantageous to him, than any other candidate running. Then he should be doing much better...but he isn't. The field is so poor that Michael Bloomberg is getting ready to enter the race and bring the money that is lacking...'cause "frontrunner" Joe Biden is not bringing in money for the DNC. Joe Biden is the strongest of all the weak candidates....slow clap. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yzermandius19 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Then he should be doing much better...but he isn't. The field is so poor that Michael Bloomberg is getting ready to enter the race and bring the money that is lacking...'cause "frontrunner" Joe Biden is not bringing in money for the DNC. Joe Biden is the strongest of all the weak candidates....slow clap. Michael Bloomberg is polling behind Kamala Harris, and is skipping all the early primary states, slow clap. He's not even a speed bump in Joe Biden's way. His money isn't going to save him. Biden should not be doing much better, he's still weak, everyone else is just weaker. Biden is doing well enough right now to win with ease, if little changes from now until the primary gets under way, the voting isn't going to be a surprise. The other candidates have to do something to change the dynamic of this race, or it's over, Biden doesn't have to do anything but not fall off a cliff. Edited November 23, 2019 by Yzermandius19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Yzermandius19 said: Michael Bloomberg is polling behind Kamala Harris, and is skipping all the early primary states, slow clap. He's not even a speed bump in Joe Biden's way. Joe Biden has no speed....he usually self destructs very slowly over time. For Biden, past results are an indicator of future performance. Bloomberg means cash, which the DNC needs badly. Quote Economics trumps Virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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