Carney Took The Bait

[Zeitgeist]

Canada is going to spend far beyond its means in part to meet a completely unnecessary defence spending bill of 5% of GDP.  Canada did indeed need to boost military spending to meet the 2% target.  Trump suddenly moved the goalposts and said all countries in NATO should hit 5% when not even the biggest military spender, the U.S., spends that much.

Canada pours money into Ukraine while the U.S. sells armaments to Ukraine.

The writing is on the wall.  The soft and gullible approach doesn’t work.  Canada shouldn’t have removed counter tariffs on the U.S.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2025 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

Bold move, but we both know that Canada will not come anywhere near to 5% of GDP for defence spending, not even with accounting tricks.   However, I agree that catch up spending to meet NATO (not Trump) targets is necessary.

U.S. spending is down since leaving Afghanistan...about 3.5% last year (2024).

[Zeitgeist]

2 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Bold move, but we both know that Canada will not come anywhere near to 5% of GDP for defence spending, not even with accounting tricks.   However, I agree that catch up spending to meet NATO (not Trump) targets is necessary.

U.S. spending is down since leaving Afghanistan...about 3.5% last year (2024).

The U.S. is also in a very different position from Canada in the senses that the US benefits from an economy of scale that allows it to produce everything itself for its own military, and the military is a big part of the US economy.   Canada has done this in niche areas, with the Lavs for example.  At some point our population size will justify more domestic production.  I hope half of that 5% is a bluff kicked down the road, but actually the budget proposal spends big on military.  Canada and the Liberals in particular don’t pivot fast enough.  Government is now back in the housing building business just as condo sales plummet and housing is less of a concern.

I can’t help but feel that at the end of all this overspending there will be little to show for it in terms of actual infrastructure.  All I want is a high speed train that gets me from Toronto to Montreal in less than 3 hours.  Most other things proposed, unless they directly boost our capacity to export and move resources/products, are paper tigers and white elephants.  We can pretty much do most of the military stuff with satellites and cheap drones.  Will those F-35’s get much practical use?  I definitely see value in ice breakers, ships and subs to patrol the arctic and open up new ports and shipping channels, but how much of the cool stuff will we actually get?  My guess is there’ll be more pork for the unions, more needless bureaucracy…

[herbie]

Canada still has 30 trustworthy NATO allies.
And we can send Ukraine all our aging stuff, use some creative bookkeeping like Diapered Donald appreciates and write their full cost off as Defence spending as well as the cost to restock with the latest.

But who cares about some fool who thinks NATO is his own private member club that he sets the membership fees for?

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, herbie said:

But who cares about some fool who thinks NATO is his own private member club that he sets the membership fees for?

 

Doesn't really matter until Canada gets to the 2% NATO goal set in 2014, long before Trump.  Can't get to 5% (which won't happen anyway) if not at 2% first.

The 5% goal is a 2035 target set more recently by NATO when faced with a stubborn Russian Federation and aid to Ukraine.   Many NATO members will be unable to meet the 5% target, but the politics still looks good on paper and to Trump.

[bush_cheney2004]

17 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

...  Will those F-35’s get much practical use?  I definitely see value in ice breakers, ships and subs to patrol the arctic and open up new ports and shipping channels, but how much of the cool stuff will we actually get?  My guess is there’ll be more pork for the unions, more needless bureaucracy…

 

Whether it be domestic infrastructure or defence procurements, Canada needs to think "biggly", if only to get out from under the threat of American recalcitrance.  The housing problem will not go away until immigration is managed more realistically.   

Bloated housing costs are about 14% of Canada's GDP, double that (28%) when mortgages, property management, and related services are included...this is bigger than any other market sector.

The other challenge is to have such budget commitments survive each political cycle.   Chretien famously cancelled a EH-101 helicopter contract to replace aging Sea Kings, happily paying a $500 million penalty.  Chretien and Martin cut Canadian spending to the bone !

[BeaverFever]

4 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada is going to spend far beyond its means in part to meet a completely unnecessary defence spending bill of 5% of GDP.  Canada did indeed need to boost military spending to meet the 2% target.  Trump suddenly moved the goalposts and said all countries in NATO should hit 5% when not even the biggest military spender, the U.S., spends that much.

Canada pours money into Ukraine while the U.S. sells armaments to Ukraine.

The writing is on the wall.  The soft and gullible approach doesn’t work.  Canada shouldn’t have removed counter tariffs on the U.S.

 

 

The counter-tariffs were hurting Canadian industry while achieving nothing with Trump who couldn’t care less about the Americans they were also harming. 

[Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Whether it be domestic infrastructure or defence procurements, Canada needs to think "biggly", if only to get out from under the threat of American recalcitrance.  The housing problem will not go away until immigration is managed more realistically.   

Bloated housing costs are about 14% of Canada's GDP, double that (28%) when mortgages, property management, and related services are included...this is bigger than any other market sector.

The other challenge is to have such budget commitments survive each political cycle.   Chretien famously cancelled a EH-101 helicopter contract to replace aging Sea Kings, happily paying a $500 million penalty.  Chretien and Martin cut Canadian spending to the bone !

True, but I liked the trajectory Chretien and Martin set for the country. We went from big deficits to budget surpluses and debt reduction.  Harper added some great middle class tax cuts and credits.  From the late 90’s to the early 2010’s Canada had excellent fundamentals, including about the lowest debt to GDP ratio in the OECD countries.  We skipped the 2008 recession stateside and our dollar strengthened.  Trudeau Jr. squandered that by massively increasing the size of government and public spending.  He also brought the country into a creepy top down interventionist command economy with a program for everything, often mismanaged and of dubious morality (mandatory pro choice MP’s, expansion of MAID, free birth control, expansion of “safe drug sites”, and all sorts of dubious identity politics around race, gender and sexuality).  Invoking the Emergencies Act was the coup de grace.

That the Liberals got back into power is dumbfounding.  Carney is certainly much smarter than Trudeau, but the spending is worse and bringing us back to the crisis levels of the early 90’s.  Trump is indeed killing the Canadian market that buys more U.S. goods than any other country.  

Edited November 5, 2025 by Zeitgeist

[Army Guy]

4 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada is going to spend far beyond its means in part to meet a completely unnecessary defence spending bill of 5% of GDP.  Canada did indeed need to boost military spending to meet the 2% target.  Trump suddenly moved the goalposts and said all countries in NATO should hit 5% when not even the biggest military spender, the U.S., spends that much.

Canada pours money into Ukraine while the U.S. sells armaments to Ukraine.

The writing is on the wall.  The soft and gullible approach doesn’t work.  Canada shouldn’t have removed counter tariffs on the U.S.

 

 

The 5 % new target was put in place because so many NATO countries had let slide their spending , it is not goin g to be this high forever, just until everyone starts to get caught up...As for Canada even at 2 % we would not be able to field much more than we have right now, which is not much when our deployment to Latvia is stressing out our combat numbers...

Last thing Canadians needs to do is freak out about 5 % of GDP when we have starved DND for the last 30 plus years....we need this to replace the JUNK we have now for much more modern equipment...and while we may not give a shit about current serving members, i want to remind you....if and when a crises does come, it will be your sons and daughters that will be manning that equipment....The world has never been closer to another world war than it is today....

What we should be demanding is Canada start moving on this spending to equip our forces to at least give them a fighting chance when the next crises comes...because it is coming...And like every crises we have faced as a nation it has come at the cost of our young sons and daughters, before we started paying for equipment that saves lives....That fact seems to fly over most Canadians heads...

[Army Guy]

16 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

The counter-tariffs were hurting Canadian industry while achieving nothing with Trump who couldn’t care less about the Americans they were also harming. 

Counter tariffs punish Canadians which buy American products, and like most Canadians will find another alternative...so yes it is short term pain for Canadians but only to those that continue to buy American products , and in the mean time Canadians will move on to cheaper products, made some place else...

So it does achieve something....Like trumps tariffs are doing, forcing American to buy American products instead of the more expensive Canadian products...in the long run it is the manufactures that will pay on both sides, in the long term trumps tariffs will benefit Americans by changing their spending habits...

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Bold move, but we both know that Canada will not come anywhere near to 5% of GDP for defence spending, not even with accounting tricks.   However, I agree that catch up spending to meet NATO (not Trump) targets is necessary.

U.S. spending is down since leaving Afghanistan...about 3.5% last year (2024).

Unfortunately they will. The secret is to how you define defense spending.

For example Carney just hired a new person in charge of procurement for the military. It's an old banking buddy of his. $800,000 a year salary plus benefits in perks which will put him well over a million. He's hired a few more like that as well.

They will in turn higher consulting firms because he has to stay at arms length. They will get millions and millions

Then he will say that he has to improve Canada's infrastructure to respond to military events which is allowed under the NATO rules for military spending. So key writings in key places in the country will get some new roads and he'll call it military spending but in reality it's vote buying

Then he will commission studies into the effect of recruitment practices on gay and lesbian communities

He might very well up the pay of some soldiers and I suspect you'll clean up some of their barracks which currently are not fit for habitation by most humans and which I can only assume are an effort to condition soldiers to the effects of germ warfare. And we might buy a few boats. But generally speaking our gear will not substantially improve

You have to know how the game is played. 80% of his military spending won't be on what you and I would likely consider military

12 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Counter tariffs punish Canadians which buy American products, and like most Canadians will find another alternative...so yes it is short term pain for Canadians but only to those that continue to buy American products , and in the mean time Canadians will move on to cheaper products, made some place else...

 

Or made At home. A lot more small businesses may start up providing the things that Americans used to provide if the tariffs make it possible to compete. But then those jobs and the money stay in our country. Basically that's what America is attempting right now on a much larger scale

[Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Counter tariffs punish Canadians which buy American products, and like most Canadians will find another alternative...so yes it is short term pain for Canadians but only to those that continue to buy American products , and in the mean time Canadians will move on to cheaper products, made some place else...

So it does achieve something....Like trumps tariffs are doing, forcing American to buy American products instead of the more expensive Canadian products...in the long run it is the manufactures that will pay on both sides, in the long term trumps tariffs will benefit Americans by changing their spending habits...

I think the tariffs are a big mistake because they skew markets Soviet style.  We end up protecting less productive industries, having less access to international goods, and remove valuable parts of supply chains, where certain resources are abundant and cheap or where there are centres of excellence, and specializations.

Yes in more extreme trade imbalances tariffs play a role, but it’s important also to remember that trade deficits don’t necessarily mean that trade is unfair.  In many cases it means that one country is wealthy and both willing and able to buy and absorb resources/goods from other countries.  Psychologically, the U.S. is the cheap extortionist right now rather than the cup overflowing with abundance that has made America so attractive and such a beacon of freedom and democracy.  It’s all about craven penury now.  Some of this is due to the kind of reckless overspending that now has America looking for any source of revenue it can get away with.  Tariffs are basically an easier tax to hide and get away with politically.  It seems like we’re turning back the clock.

Sometimes that can be a good thing.  No doubt we need to see the restoration of family and the middle class, but the serious challenge we all face is how to transition to this A.I. driven automated economy such that people can still feel like they have a purpose and a good income.  The wrong kind of government intervention can lead us to Hunger Games totalitarian capitalism.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

I think the tariffs are a big mistake because they skew markets Soviet style.  We end up protecting less productive industries, having less access to international goods, and remove valuable parts of supply chains, where certain resources are abundant and cheap or where there are centres of excellence, and specializations.

Yes in more extreme trade imbalances tariffs play a role, but it’s important also to remember that trade deficits don’t necessarily mean that trade is unfair.  In many cases it means that one country is wealthy and both willing and able to buy and absorb resources/goods from other countries.  Psychologically, the U.S. is the cheap extortionist right now rather than the cup overflowing with abundance that has made America so attractive and such a beacon of freedom and democracy.  It’s all about craven penury now.  Some of this is due to the kind of reckless overspending that now has America looking for any source of revenue it can get away with.  Tariffs are basically an easier tax to hide and get away with politically.  It seems like we’re turning back the clock.

Sometimes that can be a good thing.  No doubt we need to see the restoration of family and the middle class, but the serious challenge we all face is how to transition to this A.I. driven automated economy such that people can still feel like they have a purpose and a good income.  The wrong kind of government intervention can lead us to Hunger Games totalitarian capitalism.

Generally speaking I would agree with you. However in this circumstance we're facing a situation where a major market player is harming our Industries with tariffs. Because it turns out tariffs are an effective tool for that as well. Tariffs may make things more expensive for the consumer but they also significantly reduce sales for the seller

So if we do not retaliate with counter tariffs their industries make more money and our Industries become their Industries

By putting tariffs in place we put significant pressure on their Industries to pressure their government to come to a deal. In addition it could provide a much needed window for our companies to become more competitive and branch into areas they weren't in before because they couldn't afford to compete with established American Products

If you're in a fight with a bully, you can't be afraid to hit back just because it's going to scrape your knuckles. You have to be willing to take that pain for a length of time in order to force them to respect you and deal with you fairly

[bush_cheney2004]

8 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

 ...Some of this is due to the kind of reckless overspending that now has America looking for any source of revenue it can get away with.  Tariffs are basically an easier tax to hide and get away with politically.  It seems like we’re turning back the clock.

 

This is only a secondary benefit, and was never intended to be a longer term revenue stream.   Trump's tariffs are really the only tool he has to quickly confront the neoliberal globalization that has gutted manufacturing and domestic supply chains in many nations.   It is a crude, blunt instrument that tears down the good with the bad, hoping to emerge better on the other side.

Edited November 5, 2025 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

30 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Generally speaking I would agree with you. However in this circumstance we're facing a situation where a major market player is harming our Industries with tariffs. Because it turns out tariffs are an effective tool for that as well. Tariffs may make things more expensive for the consumer but they also significantly reduce sales for the seller

So if we do not retaliate with counter tariffs their industries make more money and our Industries become their Industries

By putting tariffs in place we put significant pressure on their Industries to pressure their government to come to a deal. In addition it could provide a much needed window for our companies to become more competitive and branch into areas they weren't in before because they couldn't afford to compete with established American Products

If you're in a fight with a bully, you can't be afraid to hit back just because it's going to scrape your knuckles. You have to be willing to take that pain for a length of time in order to force them to respect you and deal with you fairly

I agree.  Carney was wrong to remove the counter tariffs, because Trump just kept adding more.  Western countries are becoming more protectionist and insular because the the U.S. has forced our hands.  It’s back to the early twentieth century. I think this marks the rise of Asia, perhaps eventually India more than China.  I think Trump is the misguided reaction to overspending, moral collapse, and the rise of automation.  Cheap labour overseas is the justification given for the tariffs, but that’s actually a smaller factor than the others I think.  Canada has to go where the growth is.  

Edited November 5, 2025 by Zeitgeist

[Zeitgeist]

35 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

This is only a secondary benefit, and was never intended to be a longer term revenue stream.   Trump's tariffs are really the only tool he has to quickly confront the neoliberal globalization that has gutted manufacturing and domestic supply chains in many nations.   It is a crude, blunt instrument that tears down the good with the bad, hoping to emerge better on the other side.

I just think he’s bringing the wrong tools to the job.  He’s not all wrong, and in many policy areas Trump has been the hard but necessary pill to swallow.  I think he’s underestimated the downsides of tariffs, including shrinking export markets for the U.S., adding costs to business inputs, blowing a hole through well-oiled successful supply chains, and generally disrupting markets.  How much manufacturing will flow back to the U.S. in actual jobs due to tariffs versus jobs lost due to higher costs for businesses and consumers, and shrinking markets?   Moreover, what’s the impact on relationships with other countries and the American brand?  It may actually open the door for other countries to present better visions for how to live and run a country.  If Canada gets to the optimum size, I can see it blooming with the right policies, but I don’t think that should include high tariffs.  

Edited November 5, 2025 by Zeitgeist

[BeaverFever]

1 hour ago, Army Guy said:

Counter tariffs punish Canadians which buy American products, and like most Canadians will find another alternative...so yes it is short term pain for Canadians but only to those that continue to buy American products , and in the mean time Canadians will move on to cheaper products, made some place else...

So it does achieve something....Like trumps tariffs are doing, forcing American to buy American products instead of the more expensive Canadian products...in the long run it is the manufactures that will pay on both sides, in the long term trumps tariffs will benefit Americans by changing their spending habits.

I think it was less about the impact on consumer products in Canada and more on industrial purchases like machinery, software auto parts etc which was harming business. Not only are Americans buying less Canadian-made products but the Canadian products that require inputs from USA are getting more expensive. 
 

Trump and the Republicans holding congress hostage are just ignoring all the massive damage his tariffs and trade wars are inflicting on Americans while he builds his new lavish ballroom. But the governments of other countries don’t have the luxury of being so aloof and corrupt. 

[bush_cheney2004]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

I just think he’s bringing the wrong tools to the job.  He’s not all wrong, and in many policy areas Trump has been the hard but necessary pill to swallow.  I think he’s underestimated the downsides of tariffs, including shrinking export markets for the U.S., adding costs to business inputs, blowing a hole through well-oiled successful supply chains, and generally disrupting markets. 

 

I agree, but it is one of the few tools that a sitting U.S. president has to swiftly impact trade dynamics.   Manufacturing has been hollowed out in both countries, but Canada is far more dependent on exports (30% of GDP), compared to China (20%) and U.S. (10%), so Canada is really stung by the disruption.

Trump does not want to use this blunt and imprecise tool for a long time; he wants to force trade negotiations and concessions sooner rather than later.   He only has about three more years in office, and the courts/Congress may extinguish the tariffs fairly soon anyway.   Plus, CUSMA is up for re-negotiation next year ?

I can tell you as a garden variety American consumer, my family is not seeing a large impact from tariffs, including Chinese imports for computers and other electronics.   The sticker shock from Biden era, post pandemic inflation had/has a much larger impact for common consumer goods/staples.

 

[Shady]

2 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

The counter-tariffs were hurting Canadian industry while achieving nothing with Trump who couldn’t care less about the Americans they were also harming. 

Did Carney not understand how tariffs work?

[eyeball]

4 minutes ago, Shady said:

Did Carney not understand how tariffs work?

Never mind him whattabout Trump or you for that matter? You figure Trump sends Carney an invoice?

[paxamericana]

7 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

completely unnecessary defence spending bill

This is not entirely correct. We are entering a more chaotic world driven by regional competition as the US withdraw from its global commitment. Countries who wish to remain part of the global alliance need to carry their own agenda and interests including hard power such as a military. In short, we are entering a world where guns are a determining factor. To add in the mix, Nuclear proliferation.

[paxamericana]

20 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Never mind him whattabout Trump or you for that matter? You figure Trump sends Carney an invoice?

No , it’s even better, Carney sends the jobs to Trump.

[eyeball]

32 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

No , it’s even better, Carney sends the jobs to Trump.

I'm pretty sure it was corporate boards of directors who did that.

[BeaverFever]

7 hours ago, Shady said:

Did Carney not understand how tariffs work?

He understands perfectly, it’s Trump who doesn’t understand. 

[WestCanMan]

20 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada is going to spend far beyond its means in part to meet a completely unnecessary defence spending bill of 5% of GDP.  Canada did indeed need to boost military spending to meet the 2% target.  Trump suddenly moved the goalposts and said all countries in NATO should hit 5% when not even the biggest military spender, the U.S., spends that much.

Canada pours money into Ukraine while the U.S. sells armaments to Ukraine.

The writing is on the wall.  The soft and gullible approach doesn’t work.  Canada shouldn’t have removed counter tariffs on the U.S.

But then Carney and his Euro-boys started their Canada-Europe defence alliance and pretended that they were hitting 5% in spite of Trump.

 

The left4rd cultists hate Trump, and they like to pretend that he has dementia, but he controlled our election with just a few tweets, got our commie gov't to go from 1.3% to 5% defence spending (we talked about it but we won't), and he made Carney into his lapdog.

No one on earth listened to Biden, just like they don't listen to Carney.