What happens next to the Conservative Party?

[August1991]

46 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

The division is primarily between poilievre's Campaign manager and the ford government. That probably won't answer

 

1. Ford will never be a federal PM.

2. I was surprised at how well the Conservatives did in Ontario.

3. I expected the Bloc to do far better in Quebec.

====

I should have known better. Betsy, I believe, is a Filipina - she understands islands, languages, gossip. Several days before the election, I was in the south shore with assorted friends and they all spoke of Trump as a threat.

I should have noted this.

[TreeBeard]

5 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

When did Trump start threatening tariffs and calling Canada the 51st state?

Clearly, the polls went up immediately after Carney was selected leader.  If you have other data, present it. 

Edited Wednesday at 05:57 AM by TreeBeard

[August1991]

25 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

I need to hold your hand?  

Clearly, the polls went up immediately after Carney was selected leader.  If you have other data, present it. 

Disagree.

The government of Trudeau Jnr collapsed when his Finance Minister (Freeland) resigned.

=====

No, the pro-federal Liberal polls went up when Trump called Canada a 51st state.

 

 

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The Tories did well esp. with two key groups - younger people and those around Toronto. I’d prefer a more PCesque style but those who say more of the same is the right answer have a strong case. 

[TreeBeard]

9 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The Tories did well esp. with two key groups - younger people and those around Toronto. I’d prefer a more PCesque style but those who say more of the same is the right answer have a strong case. 

I think @Moonbox is right though….  while PP did “well”, he actually drove even more voters to the Liberals!  
 

So is it actually the case that he did well?  
 

I think if O’Toole is leader, Cons win the election by a landslide. 
 

Andrew Coyne sums it up perfectly. 
 

 

Edited Wednesday at 02:37 AM by TreeBeard

[CdnFox]

48 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The Tories did well esp. with two key groups - younger people and those around Toronto. I’d prefer a more PCesque style but those who say more of the same is the right answer have a strong case. 

More of the same with tweaks

There were definitely things he could have done better in this election and the fact that he did well should not stop him from pursuing those improvements

But at the end of the day he got about 42 percent.   And unlike the liberals he wasn't borrowing any votes, 

[Moonlight Graham]

3 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

I need to hold your hand?  

Clearly, the polls went up immediately after Carney was selected leader.  If you have other data, present it. 

How do you separate the effect of Carney being far more popular than Trudeau vs Trump's threats and voter's perceptions that Carney would be tougher against Trump than Pierre?  They both significantly helped the Liberals, and which had the most effect is speculation.

[SpankyMcFarland]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

More of the same with tweaks

There were definitely things he could have done better in this election and the fact that he did well should not stop him from pursuing those improvements

But at the end of the day he got about 42 percent.   And unlike the liberals he wasn't borrowing any votes, 

That remains to be seen. We could be heading for a two party system nationally. The sharpest division, which one can see here every day, is between Tory and non-Tory. 

[TreeBeard]

47 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

How do you separate the effect of Carney being far more popular than Trudeau vs Trump's threats and voter's perceptions that Carney would be tougher against Trump than Pierre?  They both significantly helped the Liberals, and which had the most effect is speculation.

For sure.  Both events made a significant difference in the election results. 
 

(Apologies for the insult. You didn’t deserve that) 

26 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

That remains to be seen. We could be heading for a two party system nationally. The sharpest division, which one can see here every day, is between Tory and non-Tory. 

One election doesn’t make a trend. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

6 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

For sure.  Both events made a significant difference in the election results. 
 

(Apologies for the insult. You didn’t deserve that) 

One election doesn’t make a trend. 

That’s right. It’s only a possibility. 

[myata]

20 hours ago, betsy said:

what he said had brought some people into the Conservative Party (blue collars who usually go for the NDP) and younger folks who usually go Liberal.

Such a nice rosy picture - and what about the raging goo that vandalized signs of other parties, shouted obscenities, spread misinformation? Did it happen or not? Has anyone noticed and even called it?

It would be ever harder to hide it: Conservatives are embracing the same populace, style of discourse and moving in the same direction as earlier the Republicans. The principles and standards, eroding in real time. Objective reality doesn't matter. Win at all cost. Where did all of this go, in this picture? If Cons want a place in the normal political future, they would need to face it, account for it and deal with it now. Else, the writing is on the wall.

[betsy]

8 hours ago, August1991 said:

Disagree.

The government of Trudeau Jnr collapsed when his Finance Minister (Freeland) resigned.

=====

No, the pro-federal Liberal polls went up when Trump called Canada a 51st state.

 

And....thanks to panicking NDP and Bloc supporters......who decided to prop the Liberals,  again! 🤣

 

Let's face it - how long has it been now that the LIBERAL PARTY needs propping?  That seems to become the trend! Maybe they ought to change the name of the party?   😁

 

 

If we could see the regrets lurking in Blanchett's mind.....when he didn't help Poilievre bring down the government. "IF ONLY............."

The same with Singh.  He would've been the OFFICIAL opposition to the government now......and, still get his pension!

 

It's a gross miscalculations on both the NDP and Bloc,  who never anticipated TRUMP ending up....................... propping CARNEY! 🤣

Edited Wednesday at 10:17 AM by betsy

[betsy]

I don't know what the rules are -but I still hope Poilievre stays on.

 

I have a nasty feeling that we'll all be weeping in a couple of years. 

And we'll be debating about having a REFERENDUM.........on becoming the 51st state.

 

:shrug:

 

 

C'est la vie.

Edited Wednesday at 10:21 AM by betsy

[myata]

22 hours ago, betsy said:

The very tight race on so many ridings between Conservatives and Liberals even when Trump is the ballot question, just shows how Poilievre's message of change had resonated.

Let's face it:  The Liberals won primarily - and, solely - due to TRUMP!

It's boldface sure but how much sense does it make? Any sense at all? 

Why is Trump presumed to have an automatic effect in favour of the Liberals?

We have a career politician of two decades with the knowledge of ins and outs in Canada politics vs. an amateur, an outsider. Why couldn't he beat Carney in standing to Trump's threat? I really would like to see a rational answer to this puzzle.

The truth is, it's not Trump per se but Poilievre, his circle and his party's attitude to Trump that lost them the election. No no, not Trump won it for Carney but Poilievre lost it due to his not so subtle affiliation to Trump and his style of politics that majority of voters were able to see through. This conclusion sounds much more grounded than just saying it, doesn't it?

[betsy]

22 minutes ago, myata said:

It's boldface sure but how much sense does it make? Any sense at all? 

Why is Trump presumed to have an automatic effect in favour of the Liberals?

We have a career politician of two decades with the knowledge of ins and outs in Canada politics vs. an amateur, an outsider. Why couldn't he beat Carney in standing to Trump's threat? I really would like to see a rational answer to this puzzle.

The truth is, it's not Trump per se but Poilievre, his circle and his party's attitude to Trump that lost them the election. No no, not Trump won it for Carney but Poilievre lost it due to his not so subtle affiliation to Trump and his style of politics that majority of voters were able to see through. This conclusion sounds much more grounded than just saying it, doesn't it?

 

The Liberals had campaigned on that - touting Carney to be the best to tackle Trump.   Obviously - many Canadians bought it. 

Poilievre ran on change - and he managed to get the blue workers (who normally vote NDP)  and young generation to go Conservatives.  It was a very tight race too -  also  gained 16 seats from the election - so although there are those who reject Polievre due to what they see as his similarities with Trump - it wasn't what had defeated him.  His support didn't bleed out.

 

His defeat came from NDP and BLOC supporters who'd panicked and  jumped ship, and voted for Carney.  Why do you think the NDP had lost its party status?  And the Bloc has lost quite a few seats?

 

Had it been an ordinary election (without the spectre of Trump) - Polievre would've won and had a majority.

 

Edited Wednesday at 12:23 PM by betsy

[myata]

25 minutes ago, betsy said:

Had it been an ordinary election (without the spectre of Trump) - Polievre would've won and had a majority.

What you're saying if my interpretation is correct, is Carney, an amateur in federal politics managed to establish and then, support and defend a more credible position in response to Trump's threat than Poilievre, a career politician.

And then using "spectre" as opposed to clear and present threat confirmed by multiple facts that many Canadians can see and experience directly, what is it, naivete? lighthearted optimism (see trying my best to stay on the good, positive sunny and happy side of things)? 

So can't avoid asking again, what is it, with Conservatives (now) and the objective reality, truth?

Edited Wednesday at 12:39 PM by myata

[ExFlyer]

10 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The Tories did well esp. with two key groups - younger people and those around Toronto. I’d prefer a more PCesque style but those who say more of the same is the right answer have a strong case. 

But,  they lost. Whine, cry make excuses... but they lost.

So what are the PC going to do now??

When Carney was selected as PM by party votes, not public election, the PC went berserk.

He is NOT the PM, we never elected him!!  Cannot be PM when un-elected ?? And so on was the screaming and crying.

 

So, now that PP is unelected...is he still the leader of the PC party??

[Barquentine]

On 4/29/2025 at 10:37 AM, betsy said:

Let's face it:  The Liberals won primarily - and, solely - due to TRUMP!

Only partially true. All those voters who feared Trump could have gone to Polievre if they'd wanted, but they didn't. If I were a conservative I'd be advocating for a new leader.

[Barquentine]

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

And unlike the liberals he wasn't borrowing any votes, 

So where did they get their new votes in Ont? When Liberals do it they're" borrowing votes", but when Conservatives do it, what - they're magical new votes?

[Legato]

2 hours ago, betsy said:

 

The Liberals had campaigned on that - touting Carney to be the best to tackle Trump.   Obviously - many Canadians bought it. 

Poilievre ran on change - and he managed to get the blue workers (who normally vote NDP)  and young generation to go Conservatives.  It was a very tight race too -  also  gained 16 seats from the election - so although there are those who reject Polievre due to what they see as his similarities with Trump - it wasn't what had defeated him.  His support didn't bleed out.

 

His defeat came from NDP and BLOC supporters who'd panicked and  jumped ship, and voted for Carney.  Why do you think the NDP had lost its party status?  And the Bloc has lost quite a few seats?

 

Had it been an ordinary election (without the spectre of Trump) - Polievre would've won and had a majority.

 

add to that the Greens fielding approx. 100 less candidates, which could have helped split the vote from the left.

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

That remains to be seen. We could be heading for a two party system nationally. The sharpest division, which one can see here every day, is between Tory and non-Tory. 

I mean anything's possible I suppose, but I doubt it very much. The NDP has been this low before under McLaughlin And bounce back. The fact is that NDP voters are not liberal voters. They have absolutely different priorities and they absolutely will not generally speaking be interested in the liberals especially if the liberals begin to move towards the center.

The only reason they collapsed here was because of jagmeet Singh and trump. If they get a new leader who's halfway decent and takes him back to their roots then they will go back to their usual party support and their voters will come back home away from the liberals. You just can't pretend that NDP voters and liberal voters are synonymous. They're not

And yes I know, every single left wing person in the universe is saying how we should dump the leader who just gave us the best performance in 40 years   I have absolutely no doubt that you would love to see nothing more than us remove poilievre and go into a leadership fight right now and then pick a nice liberal candidate instead who might win an election every 20 years or so so the liberals can stay in power

Not going to happen. You guys rode the perfect storm to manage to win this election and you still didn't pull off a majority. It could not possibly have gotten better for the liberal party than it did in this election. And you still couldn't pull off a majority

The next election probably won't be the perfect storm for you. But the base that Poilievre has created will still be there. Even if your NDP voters go back to the MVP our voters will be there and we will still have that 40 some odd percent and if anything they will be more motivated and looking for blood. And considering the economy will be trashed because it's already trashed and we're going into a recession according to the economists and seeing his trump will be out of the way as soon as the free trade deal is negotiated which will begin shortly, we have an excellent chance of taking a nice strong majority

And I don't when that happens we're going to be all that interested in compromise    But I'm sure we'll be on here telling you guys you should get rid of your leader and that it's time for you to come together as Canadians and really get behind the conservatives because that's the thing to do. Which is essentially what you're doing right now

[CdnFox]

3 minutes ago, Barquentine said:

So where did they get their new votes in Ont? When Liberals do it they're" borrowing votes", but when Conservatives do it, what - they're magical new votes?

There's no magical new votes. The conservatives have been working for a year and a half to make inroads in Ontario. Mostly it's the young people who can't even afford to live or afford food that the liberals have screwed over for their future for the last 10 years. Ontario has been polling in favor of the conservatives for well over a year now

The only reason the liberals did good is because they borrowed the votes  from the NDP. Conservative votes will still be there next time but the NDP will probably go back to the NDP when they get a leader that isn't just the liberals butt boy.

The conservative voters have been there for quite some time and will be there tomorrow. we'll pick up more when the liberals disappoint as they're going to over the next 2 years. 

But the libs voters are on loan and the ndp is going to want them back. 

[Moonbox]

5 hours ago, betsy said:

And....thanks to panicking NDP and Bloc supporters......who decided to prop the Liberals,  again! 🤣

They'll do it again too, if the CPC and Poilievre deliver more of the same.  It wasn't just the NDP and Bloc supporters either, but the Greens and a lot of Small C conservatives as well.  I voted for Harper the whole time he was PM, and I spent my first 7 years on this forum arguing on his behalf.  

People like me want nothing to do with MAGA or Poilievre's cheap karaoke version of it.  

5 hours ago, betsy said:

If we could see the regrets lurking in Blanchett's mind.....when he didn't help Poilievre bring down the government. "IF ONLY............."

Quebec is the province where Poilievre is the least popular.  I don't think he regrets not signing on with the dude that most of the province hates.  😑

Edited Wednesday at 03:15 PM by Moonbox

[CdnFox]

38 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

They'll do it again too, if the CPC and Poilievre deliver more of the same.

No, they won't. They did it because of trump.

When it was just PP  and no trump They absolutely weren't interested in joining the liberals.

As soon as it was trump they fled.

They won't do it again unless trump

 

Quote

  It wasn't just the NDP and Bloc supporters either, but the Greens and a lot of Small C conservatives as well. 

No it wasn't. Again, he got like 42% of the popular vote. Even harper never managed that. The conservatives, even the soft ones, went to the CPC.  42 percent. That's rare as hell

Meanwhile if you take carney's poling numbers of about 28 percent, then add how much the bloc and ndp lost, you come up with almost exactly what carney got, or certanly damn close. 

People on the left were scared of trump, they decided to join the liberals, that's it. 

Poilievre has increased the base cpc support to unprecedented heights. 

 

Quote

I voted for Harper the whole time he was PM, and I spent my first 7 years on this forum arguing on his behalf.  

Harper says go with PP. You should listen to harper. 

Quote

People like me want nothing to do with MAGA or Poilievre's cheap karaoke version of it.  

Which tells me you probably weren't telling the truth about harper.  Remember that's exactly what your kind was saying about him the whole time.  "Secret agenda". Right wing anti abortion.  Soldiers in the street. Ultra right wing agenda. We even had the white supremacist stuff back then.

All lies. And the whole 'maple maga' thing is just a hate term people like you come up with to dehumanize their opponents. PP has ZERO to do with 'maga'.  Trump prefers Carney. 

Quote

Quebec is the province where Poilievre is the least popular.  I don't think he regrets not signing on with the dude that most of the province hates.  😑

Conservatives have always struggled there. Quebec is also where they most hated harper. If quebec wants to drift more to the right they go with the Bloc. 

Just like alberta and sask most hate Carney and most hated justin. 

At the end of the day your entire argument is that the most successful conservative leader in 40 years by far is unsuccessful. That's a very tough pitch to sell.   Carney just got showered with a million golden horseshoes ridden by leprechauns  all carrying winning lotto tickets in the form of trump and tariffs at the perfect time.... and he's still been held to a minority.

Sure, PP made mistakes.  Sure he's definitely got areas he can improve. But selling him as a failrue with 42 percent of the popular vote is just not realistic.  

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

The only reason the liberals did good is because they borrowed the votes  from the NDP. Conservative votes will still be there next time but the NDP will probably go back to the NDP

By then Conservative votes will be split between those who want to keep moving farther right and those who don't.