War In Ukraine

[Nationalist]

8 hours ago, Aristides said:

How much in Rubles? How much in BRICS countries currencies?

You're sure concerned about this.

Good.

[Aristides]

1 hour ago, Nationalist said:

You're sure concerned about this.

Good.

I’m not, you brought it up. 
 

If you had bought a 10 year US bond a year ago, with the over 7% decline in the CAD and the over 4% yield, you would be up about 13%. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Aristides

[Nationalist]

1 minute ago, Aristides said:

I’m not, you brought it up. 
 

If you had bought a 10 year US bond a year ago, with the over 7% decline in the CAD and the over 4% yield, you would be up about 13%. 

Lol...keep digging.

[Moonbox]

21 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Hmm...my investments have done quite nicely...thank you very much.

I bet they are.  ?

[Nationalist]

18 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I bet they are.  ?

You would win that bet and finally win something.

[Aristides]

All is not roses in BRIC Land.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/here-s-what-economists-think-china-s-downturn-could-mean-for-canada-1.1960682

[Dougie93]

14 hours ago, Aristides said:

All is not roses in BRIC Land.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/here-s-what-economists-think-china-s-downturn-could-mean-for-canada-1.1960682

the only reason anybody ever invested in the BRICs was the security of American Hegemony unchallenged

with the American Hegemony now challenged

the flight to quality is in progress

as the money all flees back to King Dollar and the associated rule of law

to shelter from the coming storm

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 8/16/2023 at 9:50 AM, Nationalist said:

Ya Europe is more interested...in the flood of Ukrainian refugees living off their work and tax funds.

But who caused that flood of refugees? Let’s be crystal clear on that question before we start blaming victims. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 8/19/2023 at 11:58 PM, Aristides said:

All is not roses in BRIC Land.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/18/china-property-crisis-deepens-as-developer-country-garden-at-risk-of-default-evergrande

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/here-s-what-economists-think-china-s-downturn-could-mean-for-canada-1.1960682

These are short-term events. China led the world in many areas for centuries. We would be foolish to think this couldn’t happen again, especially given its extraordinary rise in the last few decades, an event for which one struggles to find parallels in human history. The big question really is what will China’s influence on the rest of us look like in the future? If that country continues on its dreadful totalitarian path, we should expect the cold hand of the Central Committee on many collars in many countries. The immediate worry, of course, is Taiwan. Let’s hope Putin’s current difficulties will cause hesitation there. 

Edited August 21, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[Moonbox]

23 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

These are short-term events. China led the world in many areas for centuries. We would be foolish to think this couldn’t happen again, especially given its extraordinary rise in the last few decades, an event for which one struggles to find parallels in human history. 

Umm...Japan? 

[SpankyMcFarland]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Umm...Japan? 

Yes, one of the closer peers but a smaller country with a longer history of progress. I can recall when China’s GDP per capita was similar to that of many African states. 

Edited August 22, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[Moonbox]

8 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Yes, one of the closer peers but a smaller country with a longer history of progress. I can recall when China’s GDP per capita was similar to that of many African states. 

Longer history of progress?  It took Japan less than a century to go from the Shogunate to being able to humiliate Imperial Russia and China.  China's progress feels very familiar, it just happened later.  

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Longer history of progress?  It took Japan less than a century to go from the Shogunate to being able to humiliate Imperial Russia and China.  China's progress feels very familiar, it just happened later.  

Slightly different world circumstances.  That was a time of great change around the world where everybody got a 'fresh start' thanks to brand new tech that rendered all previous tech out of date.  The Turbinia made all other steam ships and navies before it obsolete - britian's huge fleet (bigger than all others combined) was now useless nearly overnight. Advances in aviation were not state secrets requiring decades in development.  "electric" devices were all new.  The 'tank" was a new idea that was just being developed by all countries

In that environment, there was very little 'catching up' to do.  Anyone could start to design modern equipment that was likely to be as good as anyone else's and it didnt' cost much to do it. ALL countries for example (except russia) produced excellent front line fighters independently.  Everyone was new at carrier aviation and were all working it out at the same time.  The allies had a slight tech advantage for sure but not by massive amounts ( radar and rt fuses being the exception).

Nowadays - china is not going to produce large numbers of the same kind of tech that the allies have nearly as easily.  That's why the us isn't remotely concerned that china now has a 'bigger' navy.  It's fighters aren't as good, it's naval aviation isn't as good, its ground forces aren't as good, and there's a wide gap that is not easy to close. 

And of course the west is doing ongoing tech development that makes that gap wider.  And all of that costs a LOT of money. China is not cash heavy.

I think china can and will be a major power, and i think they will close the gap somewhat and can't be dismissed, but i think they're going to have a very very very hard time getting to be toe to toe capable with the western powers.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

13 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Longer history of progress?  It took Japan less than a century to go from the Shogunate to being able to humiliate Imperial Russia and China.  China's progress feels very familiar, it just happened later.  

Certainly there are parallels - with the benefit of hindsight I perhaps should have mentioned them - but also differences. At the time of its defeat, Russia was a developing nation and the war occurred at the very edge of its empire where it had serious logistical challenges. As a result of these failures, Russia reformed the army and by the time WWI happened its speed of mobilization surprised the Germans. Imperial China was in no position to defend itself against an industrializing power like Japan so defeating it was not a great achievement. 

Japan in the Thirties was an aggressively expansionist dictatorship but one which lacked the manufacturing base and sheer scale to seriously challenge the US as the subsequent war showed. America was even able to keep  Russia supplied while defeating Japan. China today should be more frightening to us, posing a bigger threat to the existing order than Japan ever did. I think it’s correct to say that Japan has never had close to 20% of the world’s population?

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[August1991]

On 8/23/2023 at 12:56 AM, SpankyMcFarland said:

Certainly there are parallels - with the benefit of hindsight I perhaps should have mentioned them - but also differences. At the time of its defeat, Russia was a developing nation and the war occurred at the very edge of its empire where it had serious logistical challenges. As a result of these failures, Russia reformed the army and by the time WWI happened its speed of mobilization surprised the Germans. Imperial China was in no position to defend itself against an industrializing power like Japan so defeating it was not a great achievement. 

Japan in the Thirties was an aggressively expansionist dictatorship but one which lacked the manufacturing base and sheer scale to seriously challenge the US as the subsequent war showed. America was even able to keep  Russia supplied while defeating Japan. China today should be more frightening to us, posing a bigger threat to the existing order than Japan ever did. I think it’s correct to say that Japan has never had close to 20% of the world’s population?

In 1815, after Napoleon, the European world created a basis of peace - counterweights.

This system was tested in 1848 but worked.

It ultimately collapsed in the summer of 1914 - the Austrian-Hungarian Federal State was no longer sustainable.

There were several Balkan Wars before 1914. I fear that this Ukraine-Russia Civil War is a similar pre-cursor of an impending European war,

====

My fear.

Europeans fight each other every 100 years or so.. Once a new generation of young males have forgotten the stories of their elders, they fight one another.

European wars/upheaval typically last for 30 years or so: 1789-1815. 1914-1945. 1618-1648

Edited September 4, 2023 by August1991

[SpankyMcFarland]

22 hours ago, August1991 said:

In 1815, after Napoleon, the European world created a basis of peace - counterweights.

This system was tested in 1848 but worked.

It ultimately collapsed in the summer of 1914 - the Austrian-Hungarian Federal State was no longer sustainable.

There were several Balkan Wars before 1914. I fear that this Ukraine-Russia Civil War is a similar pre-cursor of an impending European war,

====

My fear.

Europeans fight each other every 100 years or so.. Once a new generation of young males have forgotten the stories of their elders, they fight one another.

European wars/upheaval typically last for 30 years or so: 1789-1815. 1914-1945. 1618-1648

The European despots of 1800 feared a Napoleonic meritocracy and crushed it accordingly. Britain was more than happy to finance them so it could continue running Ireland and much of the rest of the world. This clique managed to retain that awful system in 1848. After WWII Europeans have gradually achieved a freedom and prosperity unknown in the continent’s history which the criminal regime in Moscow naturally wants to destroy. 

In its contest with the PRC, the world must imitate the cohesion of the Alliances against Napoleon but not their aims. This time it’s global freedom at stake, not some grubby enterprise by the East India Company and its likes. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[Nationalist]

Boo!

I here Austria,  Czech,  Germany and Hungary refuse to send Ukrainian refugees of military age, back to Ukraine. 

Oh well...

[Aristides]

On 9/4/2023 at 10:06 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

The European despots of 1800 feared a Napoleonic meritocracy and crushed it accordingly. Britain was more than happy to finance them so it could continue running Ireland and much of the rest of the world. This clique managed to retain that awful system in 1848. After WWII Europeans have gradually achieved a freedom and prosperity unknown in the continent’s history which the criminal regime in Moscow naturally wants to destroy. 

In its contest with the PRC, the world must imitate the cohesion of the Alliances against Napoleon but not their aims. This time it’s global freedom at stake, not some grubby enterprise by the East India Company and its likes. 

Napoleon was a monarchist, he crowned himself emperor. He made his brothers and at least one of his marshals kings, his sister, Grand Duchess of Tuscany and most of his other marshals dukes. 

A duke is the highest level of aristocracy for non royals.

Napoleon rewarded merit for service to him. He was most definitely a despot

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Aristides

[SpankyMcFarland]

3 hours ago, Aristides said:

Napoleon was a monarchist, he crowned himself emperor. He made his brothers and at least one of his marshals kings, his sister, Grand Duchess of Tuscany and most of his other marshals dukes. 

A duke is the highest level of aristocracy for non royals.

Napoleon rewarded merit for service to him. He was most definitely a despoT

Yes, but not as bad a despot as the European tyrants of the time and the British in Ireland. That’s what progress means - something not quite as bad. I don’t expect to get a fair hearing for this man in a country filled with place names like Wellington, Waterloo etc. that has been force-fed a particularly Anglocentric view of European events but he did actually represent progress in Europe, a chance for common men, and even religious minorities like Jews, to enjoy full citizenship and rise according to their merits. Unlike those emperors who feared him he was a competent tyrant who valued talent rather than ‘good breeding’ and made many improvements to France which persist to this day. I believe Russia would have been a better place for most of its people if he had been its ruler rather than the awful Tsar. For his time and place he was relatively enlightened. 

And like Napoleon I am way off course here. Glory to Ukraine. 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[Aristides]

32 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Yes, but not as bad a despot as the other incompetent European tyrants of the time and the British in Ireland. That’s what progress means - something not quite as bad. I don’t expect to get a fair hearing for this man in a country filled with place names like Wellington, Waterloo etc. that has been force-fed a particularly Anglocentric view of European events but he did actually represent progress in Europe, a chance for common men, and even religious minorities like Jews, to enjoy full citizenship and rise according to their merits. Unlike those emperors who feared him he was a secular tyrant who valued talent rather than ‘good breeding’. I believe Russia would have been a better place for most of its people if he had been its ruler. For his time and place he was enlightened and nothing like his alleged successors: Stalin, consistently vicious in a mad cause; Hitler, a murderer who desired to destroy civilization; Putin, a common thug promoted way beyond any ability he might have had. Those three should be judged by their peers, i.e. leaders in other European countries. 

 

 

 

 

 

Napoleon's police under Fouche was ruthless and feared.

Wellington was born Arthur Wellesley and Nelson was the sixth of a clergyman's 11 children. Both earned their titles in battle.

[August1991]

On 9/5/2023 at 1:06 AM, SpankyMcFarland said:

The European despots of 1800 feared a Napoleonic meritocracy and crushed it accordingly. Britain was more than happy to finance them....

And of the Prague defrestration? Despots also?

IMHO, the Thirty Years War was no different from the cataclysm of 1914-1945. 

[August1991]

You Americans wisely organised us against Communism.

You won - for the good of us all.

You fought in Korea and Vietnam. The Berlin Wall is no more.

======

Americans, please stop!

The world now must find its own way, its own stable nature.

 

 

[August1991]

As a Canadian, I have a peculiar view of American war cemeteries and American battlefields.

In Canada, we have few. I once saw one in Saskatchewan.

I've been to Gettysburg. So small, nothing like Austerlitz. (The battle in Austerlitz is a place in Saxony - a repeat of the Seven Years War. The Plains of Abraham? 10x.) 

=====

Why did you Americans get involved in foreign wars?

Jaoan and December 1941, I sort of understand. (But did you have the right to Hawaii?)

But Europe? D-Day?

Edited September 16, 2023 by August1991

[August1991]

OK. You think that you own Hawaii.

The Japanese attack - a Day in Infamy - and you Americans respond against Japan.

But why also against Germany?

=====

In America and Russia, the war started in 1941. In Canada, the war started  in 1939.

 Later, walking around cemeteries, cities, talking to people - women in particular.

I realised that this war did not start in 1939 0r 1941.

It started in summer 1914. And it lasted to 1945. These thirty years changed the lives of many people. Around the world.

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by August1991

[August1991]

We Canadians bury our war dead in place. There are many Commonwealth War graves around the world. New Zealanders.

Americans tend to bring their war dead to a central place.

I have been to both. Wandered around. And I have always asked myself: What was this guy doing? Why did he do it?