The Coronavirus

[OftenWrong]

5 hours ago, ProudConservative said:

 I'd like to know if most of their citizens have had vaccines in the last 10 years? It could be that they were vaccinated against their own bioweapon. Some citizens weren't vaccinated, so it looks like an outbreak. If they created the crisis in China, it gives them deniability. They first attack against the west, would be to shut down the supply chains triggering a collapse of the western economics.

Why is China doing so well, and the rest of us are screwed?

This is all possibilities, I don't know what's going on.

Rumours came out that China knew which drugs were effective as a treatment, but they kept this information secret.

That way they could release the bioweapon upon themselves and secretly treat it, so their death numbers don't look that bad and rest of the world would not take much preventive action. Hence the virus behaviour in Italy is so much more vicious, which has surprised and confounded authorities. Meanwhile in the US where the virus onset was delayed, they found out about the Hydro and are staving off deaths at a rate similar to China.

[Zeitgeist]

Too much disinformation on here.  The science is that a vaccine would still be effective on multiple strains that are similar.  The evidence that there are two strains of C-19, the L and S, is inconclusive anyway, as the samples were so small.

With regard to all the anti-globalism, keep in mind that without the World Health Organization’s International data collection, production of test kits, and sharing of information, countries would likely by in worse shape.  There is plenty of blame to go around right now, but little of it is helpful.  We need immediate solutions and a strong, clear plan:

“Health Minister Patty Hajdu has warned that 30 to 70 per cent of Canadians will be infected with COVID-19 before the disease runs its course. In a best-case scenario, assuming 30 per cent are infected and a mortality rate of one per cent, 112,770 Canadians will die of the disease. That’s roughly the same number that perished in the First and Second World Wars combined.

The world’s economy is on its knees. The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash 90 years ago. Trillions of dollars in wealth has evaporated. In the past week, one million Canadians have applied for employment insurance. We lack the capacity to even process those applications, and this is only the beginning.“

National Post

[Rue]

2 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Rumours came out that China knew which drugs were effective as a treatment, but they kept this information secret.

That way they could release the bioweapon upon themselves and secretly treat it, so their death numbers don't look that bad and rest of the world would not take much preventive action. Hence the virus behaviour in Italy is so much more vicious, which has surprised and confounded authorities. Meanwhile in the US where the virus onset was delayed, they found out about the Hydro and are staving off deaths at a rate similar to China.

That rumour I think is bullshit. Italy had and has high concentrations of seniors in specific places who smoke. That is all there is to it, likewise, Spain. The need to blame someone provides a quick fix to what otherwise sounds scary to make sense out of it.

The only thing that happened is a virus jumped to humans from a mammal through contaminated meat and so our usual herd immunities were not ready for it no differently than with Ebola, swine or avian flu. Any virus needs time to mutate through transmission to become less contagious as is the rule of nature. We humans do not want to wait for that. We think we can stop the virus from moving until presto we come up with a vacine which in effect simply exposes you to the virus but jumps the transmission sequence and speeds up the mutation process to make if less harmful.

It's a game we try do, get ahead of natural movementbof disease.

There is no  government conspiracy its arrogant humans thinking they can kill of or stop a virus instead of learning to channel it and live with it by allowing it's natural progression.

The vulnerable will always be there to viruses. Always. So we can learn proper hygiene protocol and better early detection methods to protect them, but our actual treatments will not make the virus go away. Our treatments deal with secondary infections that piggy back on to the virus notvthe virus.and we do have treatments for that. Not all vulnerable people die from this virus.

The ones who do have had issues a flu or cold would have allowed opportunistic infections to piggy back onto as well. The death rates assume it's the virus that killed when the underlying reasons for death may not even have been brought in by the virus and I say fgaf because more older people are recovering meaning automatic death because you are old is not accurate.

We need to spend more time learning about how our bodies work and react to opportunistic infections not create false and  quick theories to explain such phenomena.

Think about it, if a country wanted to wipe you out it would and could use far more effective chemical warfare.

Next why would China dependent on you buying its shit kill you off..the very people it needs to pay it. ..that makes no sense or cents.

[Rue]

12 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Too much disinformation on here.  The science is that a vaccine would still be effective on multiple strains that are similar.  The evidence that there are two strains of C-19, the L and S, is inconclusive anyway, as the samples were so small.

With regard to all the anti-globalism, keep in mind that without the World Health Organization’s International data collection, production of test kits, and sharing of information, countries would likely by in worse shape.  There is plenty of blame to go around right now, but little of it is helpful.  We need immediate solutions and a strong, clear plan:

“Health Minister Patty Hajdu has warned that 30 to 70 per cent of Canadians will be infected with COVID-19 before the disease runs its course. In a best-case scenario, assuming 30 per cent are infected and a mortality rate of one per cent, 112,770 Canadians will die of the disease. That’s roughly the same number that perished in the First and Second World Wars combined.

The world’s economy is on its knees. The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash 90 years ago. Trillions of dollars in wealth has evaporated. In the past week, one million Canadians have applied for employment insurance. We lack the capacity to even process those applications, and this is only the beginning.“

National Post

You are making my case to argue we need to get back to work and focus on  hygiene protocols and extensive testing. I think that is where we are headed. Indefinite isolation will not stop transmission only delay it. I get they want time to create better protocols I do..but not without clear and realistic time lines.

Destroying the economy will kill more people and people will figure that out.

[Zeitgeist]

38 minutes ago, Rue said:

You are making my case to argue we need to get back to work and focus on  hygiene protocols and extensive testing. I think that is where we are headed. Indefinite isolation will not stop transmission only delay it. I get they want time to create better protocols I do..but not without clear and realistic time lines.

Destroying the economy will kill more people and people will figure that out.

The health system couldn’t handle a sudden massive surge in cases.  If we get these first two phases (now I’m using official language) right, which means people staying home until we see a major drop (a surge is coming over the next few weeks), then we can do the return to work and school in a measured way that keeps new cases to a trickle Instead of a tsunami, and we’ll have better gear and tests, and more of them, to isolate and handle cases as they emerge.  Yes, the argument now is about timing. Easter will be too soon, but late April or early May is a possibility if we get these first phases right.  If we don’t and the numbers are very high or accelerating, then we will face harder choices, such as accepting a more damaged economy or accepting many more deaths.  

Edited March 25, 2020 by Zeitgeist

[Rue]

20 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

The health system couldn’t handle a sudden massive surge in cases.  If we get these first two phases (now I’m using official language) right, which means people staying home until we see a major drop (a surge is coming over the next few weeks), then we can do the return to work and school in a measured way that keeps new cases to a trickle Instead of a tsunami, and we’ll have better gear and tests, and more of them, to isolate and handle cases as they emerge.  Yes, the argument now is about timing. Easter will be too soon, but late April or early May is a possibility if we get these first phases right.  If we don’t and the numbers are very high or accelerating, then we will face harder choices, such as accepting a more damaged economy or accepting many more deaths.  

Your assumption of a massive surge of cases swamping hospitals as a  pretext to keep eople under house arrest  and shut down the economy  indefinitely has been proven false by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

I also think the assumption of  mass assault on hospitals exceeding their capacity is fear mongering. Our hospitals have never been able to have proper capacity to deal with viruses let alone any illness.  

All hospitals struggle with some sort of back log. It's a necessary and unavoidable reality of any health service operation.

House arrest does not and can not stop that reality or change it.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue

[Zeitgeist]

20 minutes ago, Rue said:

Your assumption of a massive surge of cases swamping hospitals as a  pretext to keep eople under house arrest  and shut down the economy  indefinitely has been proven false by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

I also think the assumption of  mass assault on hospitals exceeding their capacity is fear mongering. Our hospitals have never been able to have proper capacity to deal with viruses let alone any illness.  

All hospitals struggle with some sort of back log. It's a necessary and unavoidable reality of any health service operation.

House arrest does not and can not stop that reality or change it.

 

Right now we’re ramping up production and slowing the spread.  The surge that is starting to unfold relates to the already infected being detected and becoming symptomatic, as well as a still growing spread due to previously lax social distancing, self-isolation, and hygiene.  If we can keep a big surge from happening and get to few or no new cases, that positions us well for a return to work under careful conditions, and we may get there in a month.  That’s the ideal.  We’ll be better equipped to deal with new cases at that point.  This is the time to be extra careful and put together the exit plan. 

[Argus]

15 hours ago, bcsapper said:

I wonder if how much one cares is proportional to the distance one is from the closest person affected?  Such a thing might interest a social scientist.

Clearly if you're someone like Trump, who has no friends and barely tolerates his family (except the hot chick with the nice boobs you want to date), you don't really care how many people die.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Argus

[Argus]

39 minutes ago, Rue said:

Your assumption of a massive surge of cases swamping hospitals as a  pretext to keep eople under house arrest  and shut down the economy  indefinitely has been proven false by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

But those countries do massive testing and very zealous contact tracing. We do neither. Too much work. Nope, we'll just keep everything shut down till sometime in 2021 when someone comes up with a vaccine.

[Moonbox]

4 minutes ago, Rue said:

Your assumption of a massive surge of cases is the pretext to keep people under house arrest necessarily would require a minimum  of 5 months. You think the country can remain  shut down like it is now at least 5 or 6 months?  Really? 

No, but nobody is saying we need to lock everything down for 5-6 months.  As he said, a slow and pensive return to more normal functions will likely be how we proceed from here.   The virus is going to be circulating and spreading, likely, for at least a year, and we frankly can't just shut down the economy for that long.  

On the other hand, we can't return to normal economic function (or even close to it) until cases start slowing and the outlook improves.  By can't, I mean it doesn't matter if lock-downs are imposed or optional.  The economy will not function properly as long as hospitals stay overloaded and people are dying without access to ventilators.  People won't travel, they won't go to restaurants and they won't gather or do a lot of normal activities.  Consumer spending will be steeply curtailed, which will subsequently lead to companies stockpiling inventory and eventually more layoffs. 

Global economies will not function amidst this sort of health crisis.  Some parts of it will, but there's way too much uncertainty for money to flow like it needs to for business-as-normal.  The idea that we lift the isolation measures and things just start chugging along again is pure fantasy.    

[Zeitgeist]

I do think that it’s possible that the cure becomes worse than the disease if the self-isolation continues for months.  The economic and non-virus health costs would be too high (mental health, suicides, untreated other illnesses, etc.).  People can’t stay indoors alone or with immediate family for months.  That’s untenable.  

[Moonbox]

Like I said, we're not proposing months of house arrest and 100% isolation.  That's a straw-man that folks like Trump are tossing around.  Everyone can't stay home.  Parts of the economy still MUST function.  We know that.  

That being said, the virus will cripple large parts of the economy regardless of what we do.  Whether governments impose self-isolation or not, people aren't going to be spending money.  Until the anxiety and uncertainty we're dealing with shows signs of resolving, people won't be travelling, going to restaurants, playing sports and certainly won't be making big-ticket purchases when there are mass-layoffs and global supply-chain problems.   

The idea that we just lift the shutdown measures and things go back to economic-normal isn't base on reality.  To oversimplify, we're looking at a shorter-term reduction to something like 35% economic capacity so that we can get back to 75% capacity over the coming months, and then more quickly to 100% capacity in 2021. The alternative is that we limp along at 65% capacity, things get much worse, and then we drop down to <50% anyways and it lasts far, far longer, with far worse long-term consequences.  

Those percentages are all made up, so don't overthink the "math".  I'm just trying to illustrate the idea.  It's what I'm hearing daily on conference calls with Canadian and US macro-economists and investment strategists managing hundreds of billions.  We cannot separate the health impact from the economic impact.  As one goes down the crapper, the other follows.  

 

[Rue]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

Right now we’re ramping up production and slowing the spread.  The surge that is starting to unfold relates to the already infected being detected and becoming symptomatic, as well as a still growing spread due to previously lax social distancing, self-isolation, and hygiene.  If we can keep a big surge from happening and get to few or no new cases, that positions us well for a return to work under careful conditions, and we may get there in a month.  That’s the ideal.  We’ll be better equipped to deal with new cases at that point.  This is the time to be extra careful and put together the exit plan. 

All well stated if it had definitive time lines released.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue

[Zeitgeist]

14 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Like I said, we're not proposing months of house arrest and 100% isolation.  That's a straw-man that folks like Trump are tossing around.  Everyone can't stay home.  Parts of the economy still MUST function.  We know that.  

That being said, the virus will cripple large parts of the economy regardless of what we do.  Whether governments impose self-isolation or not, people aren't going to be spending money.  Until the anxiety and uncertainty we're dealing with shows signs of resolving, people won't be travelling, going to restaurants, playing sports and certainly won't be making big-ticket purchases when there are mass-layoffs and global supply-chain problems.   

The idea that we just lift the shutdown measures and things go back to economic-normal isn't base on reality.  To oversimplify, we're looking at a shorter-term reduction to something like 35% economic capacity so that we can get back to 75% capacity over the coming months, and then more quickly to 100% capacity in 2021. The alternative is that we limp along at 65% capacity, things get much worse, and then we drop down to <50% anyways and it lasts far, far longer, with far worse long-term consequences.  

Those percentages are all made up, so don't overthink the "math".  I'm just trying to illustrate the idea.  It's what I'm hearing daily on conference calls with Canadian and US macro-economists and investment strategists managing hundreds of billions.  We cannot separate the health impact from the economic impact.  As one goes down the crapper, the other follows.  

 

Yes, but we will have to get to acceptable risk for the workplace that includes having the vast majority of the Canadian workforce at work.  When unemployment numbers climb into the double digits, tax revenues can’t cover the cost of existing public services and cuts must be made.  Yes, temporarily we can borrow the money and keep interest rates low.  Those are short-term fixes, especially if we see unemployment settle in at around or above 20%.   We may be at 30% right now, which means the clock is ticking.  That’s why we need a clear, firm plan with timelines and contingency plans based on unexpected changes in the numbers.  It’s better to go harder sooner with quarantine because it gets the economy rolling sooner.  Probably the current criteria of essential services is fine for this temporary period, but we have to be ready to adjust policy on a dime.  

[Rue]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

No, but nobody is saying we need to lock everything down for 5-6 months.  As he said, a slow and pensive return to more normal functions will likely be how we proceed from here. 

 

 The virus is going to be circulating and spreading, likely, for at least a year...

On the other hand, we can't return to normal economic function (or even close to it) until cases start slowing and the outlook improves. 

By can't, I mean it doesn't matter if lock-downs are imposed or optional.  The economy will not function properly as long as hospitals stay overloaded and people are dying without access to ventilators.  

Global economies will not function amidst this sort of health crisis.   

My debate is with respect MOON because I do get your points if they had clear time lines...because...well ..yes ...if Iread your first two comments that is an indefinite time period and or at least a year.

 We have extensive medical challenges from all kinds of more lethal diseases every second of life and have functioned. Sk we can not overplay the virus's consequences to life engaging in a false assumption that life can not co-exist with this virus unless we are under house arrest.

That is illogical  and South Korea, Taiwan have shown that and it has been illustrated by  common fact as we do not house arrest people for having the  flu which has all the same risks.

Your assumption global economies  can not function if this virus exists is questionable. It has in the past in the world in spite of far more deadly viruses. Remember this is a mutated corona virus whichbis novel in one sense but has also been with us since we started our species in one form or another.

Finally your assumption we need house arrest to prevent a run on respirators is a short term argument only. If that is issue we need  provide everyone a respirator not house arrest them.

Can you please look at the rates of other more deadly infectious diseases and ask, why did we not shut dow  until this one came?

What is so unique about this one...to justify our current response? Can you  or I really say? Are we  buying in to a message that maybe we need to question?  We are asked to believe this virus is so lethal weneed to be under house arrest. Ok short term maybe..long term is respectfully where you lose me. Thanks though for your well stated response and to Z to. Appreciated. 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue

[Rue]

17 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Yes, but we will have to get to acceptable risk for the workplace that includes having the vast majority of the Canadian workforce at work.  When unemployment numbers climb into the double digits, tax revenues can’t cover the cost of existing public services and cuts must be made.  Yes, temporarily we can borrow the money and keep interest rates low.  Those are short-term fixes, especially if we see unemployment settle in at around or above 20%.   We may be at 30% right now, which means the clock is ticking.  That’s why we need a clear, firm plan with timelines and contingency plans based on unexpected changes in the numbers.  It’s better to go harder sooner with quarantine because it gets the economy rolling sooner.  Probably the current criteria of essential services is fine for this temporary period, but we have to be ready to adjust policy on a dime.  

Ok now I really get you Z and nod. Now I agree. I just argue what you just did to Moonbox and you.

[Yzermandius19]

We need to get the anti-body testing ramped up, so we can find out how many people already had the virus, recovered and now have immunity to it. Until then, we are flying blind and the mortality rates are going to look way higher than they actually are. There is a new study out of Oxford that says it's possible up to half of the UK has already been infected, didn't notice, and have become immune already, and the mortality rate could actually be as low or lower than the seasonal flu, and the UK's herd immunity strategy that they originally employed, was the way to go, not "flattening the curve".

If this Oxford study is even close to right, then even I'm being a total SIFCLF about Coronavirus, and Nukedog had this right from the beginning, fake and gay. My confirmation bias of course wants that study to be right, so I'm keeping that in mind, but like I said, until we seriously ramp up the anti-body testing, we won't know for sure, one way or the other.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Yzermandius19

[OftenWrong]

First official day of the shutdown, and I’m at work. So is my spouse. Drove to work today and what do you know, roads are busy as hell. Makes me want to ask our PM, “Justin, what’s quarantine mean?”

[Rue]

4 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

First official day of the shutdown, and I’m at work. So is my spouse. Drove to work today and what do you know, roads are busy as hell. Makes me want to ask our PM, “Justin, what’s quarantine mean?”

I am actually working on line. I listen to Z. I can do my part I just question it long term...and hey I am sure you will practice hygiene protocol. You do not fool me you are a caring person...lol...stop crying....

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue

[eyeball]

17 minutes ago, Rue said:

Your assumption global economies  can not function if this virus exists is questionable. It has in the past in the world in spite of far more deadly viruses.

Today's global economy is to past economies as COVID-19 is to the common cold. Exactly what kind of global economies are you comparing here, the old camel tracked Silk Road of the 2nd century to an economy where 350 containers fall of ships every year with nary a shrug? 

Quote

Remember this is a mutated corona virus whichbis novel in one sense but has also been with us since we started our species in one form or another.

The assumption that this is just another ancient virus that has been pestering us forever is as wrongheaded as assumptions this virus is a brand new bioweapon. So is imagining a global economy based on camels and shipping containers are the same.

But you know what's really misguided, the fear that the end of today's economy will spell the end of the future.  If there's anything human beings have been surviving just fine forever its the occasional bad quarterly report.

 

[Rue]

36 minutes ago, Yzermandius19 said:

We need to get the anti-body testing ramped up, so we can find out how many people already had the virus, recovered and now have immunity to it. Until then, we are flying blind and the mortality rates are going to look way higher than they actually are. There is a new study out of Oxford that says it's possible up to half of the UK has already been infected, didn't notice, and have become immune already, and the mortality rate could actually be as low or lower than the seasonal flu, and the UK's herd immunity strategy that they originally employed, was the way to go, not "flattening the curve".

If this Oxford study is even close to right, then even I'm being a total SIFCLF about Coronavirus, and Nukedog had this right from the beginning, fake and gay. My confirmation bias of course wants that study to be right, so I'm keeping that in mind, but like I said, until we seriously ramp up the anti-body testing, we won't know for sure, one way or the other.

I do get the fake reference but the gay one? Lol, never mind. Gay people are behind this? Lol. Ok. I knew they were blamed for aids. I thought we were blaming Chinese bat and snake eaters. I thought XUL started it. I can not keep up. You are innocent XUL. Psst XUL are you gay? Sheesh  I like Jet Li. Seriously my people started it with unsanitary bagels.

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue

[eyeball]

14 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

First official day of the shutdown, and I’m at work. So is my spouse. Drove to work today and what do you know, roads are busy as hell. Makes me want to ask our PM, “Justin, what’s quarantine mean?”

I've been laid off for a week now and the biggest thing I notice, besides the stunningly beautiful weather is just how quiet it is.  The hum of economic activity is just gone. It sounds like 8:00 in the morning on Christmas Day, all day long, day after day. 

[Rue]

2 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Today's global economy is to past economies as COVID-19 is to the common cold. Exactly what kind of global economies are you comparing here, the old camel tracked Silk Road of the 2nd century to an economy where 350 containers fall of ships every year with nary a shrug? 

The assumption that this is just another ancient virus that has been pestering us forever is as wrongheaded as assumptions this virus is a brand new bioweapon. So is imagining a global economy based on camels and shipping containers are the same.

But you know what's really misguided, the fear that the end of today's economy will spell the end of the future.  If there's anything human beings have been surviving just fine forever its the occasional bad quarterly report.

 

It is just another virus. They come, they mutate and move on. Finish your arguments. Explain what makes this virus the first to have jumped from another species to humans causing the medical issues it has. Good luck on that.

Good luck as well but please explain how today's economy can not function if people have viruses.

Next what I have argued is that shutting down the economy will kill more people than this current virus. If you can not understand that and think that is misguided let me say this..how the hell do you think we live? Do you think you can live in isolation sitting on hour ass? Really? Talk about misguided.

[eyeball]

I also notice the near complete absence of airline traffic over head and no contrails.

I would have thought the government's chemical spraying program would still be high on the list of essential services.

[Rue]

11 minutes ago, eyeball said:

I've been laid off for a week now and the biggest thing I notice, besides the stunningly beautiful weather is just how quiet it is.  The hum of economic activity is just gone. It sounds like 8:00 in the morning on Christmas Day, all day long, day after day. 

Get back to me when you have no money and are thrown out of where you live. How will you practice social distancing lining up for food. I am assuming you won't go to a shelter due to the crowding.

You arm chair communists are something else.Quite the elite bubble you live in.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Rue