Federal Election Polls

[dialamah]

ANYONE HERE VOTED AS YET? We did and as we were coming out of voting, I could hear several people talking about NOT voting for the Harper, not the Tory Party but people just don't like Harper. There was a long line up but our poll had a short line in and out in about 5 minutes. I think we will see more voters voting this time around.

I plan to vote this weekend. My FB feed has a few ABC links and I've seen a lot of people who say they haven't voted in a long time but will this time just to oust Harper. JT is also running some youth-directed ads on FB, a change from the stodginess of Con/NDP, so perhaps that'll show results as well. Would be interesting if the total voter turnout was significantly higher than previous years, but that's probably too much to hope for.

[Hydraboss]

Would be interesting if the total voter turnout was significantly higher than previous years, but that's probably too much to hope for.

Every year I wait to hear the turnout and hope it will be an all time high. But it never is. Hasn't been over 70% since before '88.

Depressing.

[Smeelious]

Every year I wait to hear the turnout and hope it will be an all time high. But it never is. Hasn't been over 70% since before '88.

Depressing.

I do think it'll be higher this year, but yeah..

[ReeferMadness]

I do think it'll be higher this year, but yeah..

I think it will too. Elections Canada has been setting up polls at University for students who want to vote in their home ridings and the turnout has been huge. I suspect that the younger generation is reacting with disgust to Conservative anti-Muslim politics. Good one them.

[ironstone]

Seems to me the trendline on the Liberals has been steadily upward since the election was called, whilst CPC has bounced around, but has trended down. I bet that wasn't Harper's plan when he decided on an extra long election. Anyway, hope these trends continue.

Yes,I just can't wait for the federal government to return to deficit,billions more in green energy etc.He'll run the country exactly like Kathleen Wynne runs Ontario.

It amazes me how many Canadians will vote based on emotion and not reason.

[Hydraboss]

This isn't the first time they've set up at post secondary institutions. And every time they claim the turnout is huge.

But it never seems to wash out that way. Why is that?

edit -> last time it was 38.8% vs 61.1% overall

Edited October 9, 2015 by Hydraboss

[dre]

Yes,I just can't wait for the federal government to return to deficit,billions more in green energy etc.He'll run the country exactly like Kathleen Wynne runs Ontario.

It amazes me how many Canadians will vote based on emotion and not reason.

Its amazing that every hack to ever frequent on online forum thinks everyone else that doesnt vote their way is voting on emotion and not reason.

Yes yes... The ability to reason is a gift, given only to conservative voters and forum posters <pats head/>

[Hydraboss]

The ability to reason is a gift, given only to conservative voters and forum posters <pats head/>

No one said that this gift was given to all forum posters.

......

[dialamah]

Yes,I just can't wait for the federal government to return to deficit,billions more in green energy etc.He'll run the country exactly like Kathleen Wynne runs Ontario.

It amazes me how many Canadians will vote based on emotion and not reason.

I know. If I had your fortune-telling ability and a conviction that a Liberal was a clone of every other Liberal (or only my most personally hated Liberal) I'd probably vote differently.

But wait ... BC is led by a Liberal government, and seems to be doing ok - in fact, quite well!

http://globalnews.ca/news/2174876/bc-to-lead-economic-growth-in-2016-predicts-credit-union/

http://www.bcbc.com/publications/bc-economic-review-and-outlook

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/expected+have+strong+economy+2015/10883132/story.html

Your head must be exploding: a Liberal lead provincial government that isn't tanking economically!

[CITIZEN_2015]

If you're trying to say that conservative voters are moving to the NDP, I'll have to call you out. Can't see it. Maybe the Liberals, but not Mulcair.

No I was suggesting the possibility of conservative voters moving to Liberals not NDP when they see political manipulations and interference. They may feel they had enough.

[CITIZEN_2015]

I just heard this on CTV news, Power Play (so I don't have a link) by Nanos and the question was

Who will perform best on the economy:

Trudeau - 39%

Harper - 33%

Mulcair - 16 or 18% (can't remember).

Economy was the card to play with for conservatives all along and now they are behind even on that front!!!. No wonder they have to pick niqab now to gain support.

Edited October 9, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[ironstone]

I know. If I had your fortune-telling ability and a conviction that a Liberal was a clone of every other Liberal (or only my most personally hated Liberal) I'd probably vote differently.

---SNIP---

Your head must be exploding: a Liberal lead provincial government that isn't tanking economically!

I concede that all Liberal governments are not the same.If we take everything Trudeau has said during this campaign into account,past and present,the evidence clearly suggests he will govern more like Kathleen Wynne than Christy Clark.

I would vote for Christy Clark if I lived in BC.

I wouldn't wish a Trudeau/Wynne like leader on anyone.

Edited October 9, 2015 by Charles Anthony
[---SNIP---]

[Topaz]

Last night on TVO, The Agenda, they were talking about the election and the deficit and it showed that in the mid 70's to Paul martin time as Finance Minister, every government ran a deficit because money was cheap and Martin was the only in the blue and the others in the red. So, if Martin is behind Justin, then I don't think there's much to worry about.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Mid 70's to 1994 money was not cheap. In fact the interest rates around early 80's hit 22%!!!!!!. And around 11 to 13% for most of the time in that period. But yes it was Paul Martin and his famous phrase of "Hail or high water" we will get the deficit out followed by severe cut backs to transfer payments to provinces and federal cut backs so he balanced budget on the back of health care and social programs and government programs. But it was a necessary evil at the time. But things are different now. We can spend a bit now that we have a balanced budget already in order to kick start the economy. Today stats out that Canada lost some fifty or sixty thousand full time jobs (and in its place Canada gained seventy thousand part time jobs) and latest economic predictions are for slow economy to continue at about 1% for the entire year (2015).

[CITIZEN_2015]

I just received an automated call asking me about who I wish to vote if voting was to take place today!!. I didn't catch the pollster's name though. Also asked about my second choice.

Edited October 10, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

We have just ten days to

go until Election Day and, while nothing is

definitive, there are signs that voters’ intentions

are beginning to lock in. After rising steadily fo

r

five consecutive days, Liberal support seems to hav

e levelled out and the party remains locked in

a tie with the Conservative Party. While ten days i

s nearly an eternity by election campaign

standards, it does not appear that the NDP is still

in the race.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_9_2015.pdf

[angrypenguin]

I'm curious. Who here truly doesn't give a shit about the polls? Or does everyone sorta care?

[Shady]

I think the polls give you a general idea of the state of a race. But it's not nearly as accurate as pollsters would have you believe.

[angrypenguin]

I think the polls give you a general idea of the state of a race. But it's not nearly as accurate as pollsters would have you believe.

You don't get it. Liberals are far ahead, and any poll that disagrees with that means there's an error.

[eyeball]

I'm curious. Who here truly doesn't give a shit about the polls? Or does everyone sorta care?

Notwithstanding the political junkies, the strategistas probably care more than ordinary voters.

[On Guard for Thee]

You don't get it. Liberals are far ahead, and any poll that disagrees with that means there's an error.

Now there is wishful thinking if I've ever heard it!

[ToadBrother]

I'm curious. Who here truly doesn't give a shit about the polls? Or does everyone sorta care?

The parties certainly do. You can be sure their internal polling is a matter of the highest priority.

[Peter F]

I'm curious. Who here truly doesn't give a shit about the polls? Or does everyone sorta care?

I don't care about polls, in fact I despise them. I want to know what these people running for parliament think, not the other way around.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Liberal Lead widens to 6%+ at the expense of conservatives Yahooooooo released by Nanos October 10

Nanos National Nightly Tracking, Three day rolling average of 1,200 voters (October 7th, 8th, and 9th, 2015) released October 10th, 2015 (6 am Eastern).

Liberals - 34.8%

conservatives - 28.6%

NDP - 24.8%

National Ballot – Nightly tracking completed by Nanos has the Liberals at 34.8% followed by the Conservatives at 28.6%, the NDP at 24.9%, and the Greens at 5.4% nationally. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for a party, 50.5% of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, 43.3% would consider voting NDP, 37.7% would consider voting Conservative.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151009%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Angus Reid on line survey however released late last night shows as still a numeric Tory lead or a statistical tie

conservatives - 33%

Liberals - 31%

NDP - 25%

Last week they gave conservatives a 7% lead. It appears that religious and rich people are on line more often.

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015-10-09-October-Vote-Intention.pdf

Edited October 10, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

The parties certainly do. You can be sure their internal polling is a matter of the highest priority.

How does internal polling work? I've never quite figured this out.

Do you mean they conduct their own polls or....?