Federal Election Polls

[CITIZEN_2015]

But will they show up to vote? That's the point.

Likely not. They can't show up their faces. Wearing niqab may be

Edited October 11, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

But will they show up to vote? That's the point.

I don't remember which poll it was but this question was asked to voters. It was something along the lines of....based on what you have said in the poll, would you actually show up to poll?

The Conservatives had a 20 or 30 point lead.

We all know that the younguns are the laziest when it comes to voting, and they usually vote Liberal/NDP. The seniors are usually the ones who show up on voting day, and they severely favor the Conservatives.

Edited October 11, 2015 by angrypenguin

[angrypenguin]

Mainly it's to get on the local evening news and whip supporters' spirits.

I had forgotten about that. Thanks!

[CITIZEN_2015]

No poll released today. Only nano at 6:00 am but I couldn't find any other poll.

[ToadBrother]

The Globe and Mail is reporting that Mulcair is extending an olive branch to the Liberals about working together post-election, and further reiterating he will not support a Tory government.

I think the groundwork is likely being set for at least a confidence and supply agreement, and most certainly both Trudeau and Mulcair have both publicly come into accord about defeating a Tory government should the Tories win a minority.

I wasnt willing to declare a trend even a day or so ago, but I think barring some quite stunning reversal, even if the Tories recover enough to squeeze out a plurality, they'd better prepared to vacate the government benches. Frankly I think the voters will do that for them on the 19th.

I also wonder if Mulcair would also step aside so as to increase the likelihood of some sort of deal being struck with the Liberals. His position isn't likely to be that good after the election anyways, and I think it's pretty clear that whatever hostility their may be between the Liberals and NDP, they've clearly got to the point where the enemy of their enemy is their friend.

Harper should have resigned a year ago. Why the Tories went into this election with him is beyond me.

[CITIZEN_2015]

The Globe and Mail is reporting that Mulcair is extending an olive branch to the Liberals about working together post-election, and further reiterating he will not support a Tory government.

Yes I read that too and at this stage of the game I didn't see it a positive development. My reason is because I think Mulcair wants to block the flow of NDP supporters to Liberals as those supporters wish to block a Tory take over at any cost but if they see that Trudeau and Mulcair are going to collaborate after election to defeat Harper then there is no more incentive for soft NDP supporters to jump ship and vote for Liberals.

I think Trudeau should accept the olive branch only after the election and if he did not win the government but now it is not the time.

Edited October 11, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

No poll released today. Only nano at 6:00 am but I couldn't find any other poll.

Was Angus released yesterday or today? I don't remember, spent the day working.

It is a long weekend. Give the polling guys a break They deserve some good time off too!

I realize we're all political junkies though

Edited October 11, 2015 by angrypenguin

[CITIZEN_2015]

No Angus Reid was released yesterday. Tomorrow at 6:00 am there will be a fresh Nanos poll. I am a political junkie enough to actually wake up for it at that time!!.

[angrypenguin]

No Angus Reid was released yesterday. Tomorrow at 6:00 am there will be a fresh Nanos poll. I am a political junkie enough to actually wake up for it at that time!!.

I noticed! I'm the same, but I'm too lazy versus you.

At 6:00am my phone goes off, I check the Nanos poll. Sometimes it's a few minutes late, but I read it, I read the trend line, and then I go back to bed.

When I wake up, I check this forum and I see a YAHOO! post by you

[waldo]

I also wonder if Mulcair would also step aside so as to increase the likelihood of some sort of deal being struck with the Liberals. His position isn't likely to be that good after the election anyways, and I think it's pretty clear that whatever hostility their may be between the Liberals and NDP, they've clearly got to the point where the enemy of their enemy is their friend.

Harper should have resigned a year ago. Why the Tories went into this election with him is beyond me.

a step aside by Mulcair... for this guy. - in the past Cullen opening talked of a party merge with the Liberals... after apparently being reigned in on that, he would still float the occasional coalition trial balloon!

[CITIZEN_2015]

When I wake up, I check this forum and I see a YAHOO! post by you

:) I guess the Yahoo post depends on the poll results lol!!!

Good to know I am not alone.

[angrypenguin]

:) I guess the Yahoo post depends on the poll results lol!!!

Good to know I am not alone.

Hahaha. At this point, it's...whatever. It's not like you or I can change the outcome. I used to get SO into this stuff it was worrying to my family

The people will vote. But when 90% of people reject the phone call...and when Cameron got a majority in the UK, the Provincial government in AB who got a majority and the Liberal? win in BC - polls can't be trusted anymore.

It's sad. I love looking at polling data. But for the love of god, no, you're not alone! I check the polls every few hours each day, and at 6am every morning! Including tomorrow!

[waldo]

No poll released today. Only nano at 6:00 am but I couldn't find any other poll.

Forum Research - Oct 8/9 polling... Liberals @ 37%, Harper Conservatives @ 31%, NDP @ 23%

Translated to seat counts, Forum said the popular support figures mean that the Liberals would score a strong minority of 145 seats, 25 fewer than needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons. The Conservatives would capture 116 seats, with the NDP, who began the campaign in August as front-runners, placing a distant third with 69.

The Bloc Québécois and Green Party would round out the field, with seven seats and one seat, respectively.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Liberals maintain their 6%+ lead over conservatives in the latest Nano's poll released October 11. Yahoooooooooo

Liberals - 35.1%

conservatives - 29%

NDP - 25%

Poll results almost a mirror image of yesterdays by Nano likely confirming its accuracy. Liberals surging in both Ontario and Quebec!!

National Ballot – The current Nanos nightly tracking shows the Liberals at 35.1% support nationally followed by the Conservatives at 29.0%, the NDP at 25.0%, and the Greens at 5.1%. • Regional Races – The federal Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Ontario while the Conservatives retain their advantage in ballot support in the Prairies. Quebec is a tight race between the NDP and the Liberals and in British Columbia it is a three way race in the Nanos tracking.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151010%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Forum Research - Oct 8/9 polling... Liberals @ 37%, Harper Conservatives @ 31%, NDP @ 23%

Thank you so much for this. Yes forum poll also confirms Liberals 6% lead!!!!! another Yahooo.

Edited October 11, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[CITIZEN_2015]

EKOS just released putting conservatives ahead by 2.4%!!!!!.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_11_2015.pdf

conservatives - 35.5%

Liberals - 33.1%

NDP -19.0%

NDP is the lowest it has ever been in recent history in above poll.

Still a statistical tie but We are not amused!!.

Edited October 11, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[capricorn]

NDP is the lowest it has ever been in recent history in above poll.

I'm thinking Mulcair must be wishing he had gone for deficit spending. That seems to be working for the Liberals.

[bush_cheney2004]

...NDP is the lowest it has ever been in recent history in above poll.

Still a statistical tie but We are not amused!!.

Wow...what a collapse. I guess the October surprises backfired on the NDP...such a pity.

[CITIZEN_2015]

I'm thinking Mulcair must be wishing he had gone for deficit spending. That seems to be working for the Liberals.

I don't think this was what brought NDP down. I could be wrong but my guess is two factors worked against NDP. The niqab since they were stronger than Liberals on the issue and they lost a lot of support in Quebec because of that but Liberals were not as strong in Quebec to start with and second, the strategic voters abandoning ship joining Liberals as they realize that Liberals are the only force to stop another nightmare.

It would be very likely my turn to say Yahoo tomorrow angrypenguin and for the next 7 days especially on October 20th

Edited October 11, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

I don't think this was what brought NDP down. I could be wrong but my guess is two factors worked against NDP. The niqab since they were stronger than Liberals on the issue and the strategic voters abandoning ship joining Liberals as they realize that Liberals are the only force to stop another nightmare.

It would be very likely my turn to say Yahoo tomorrow angrypenguin and for the next 7 days especially on October 20th

I spent the entire day reading up on polls and also something that you guys are missing that would really affect the outcome of the election. I'm surprised no one has mentioned it yet.

I'll post what it is after the election count is over

The only poll that matters is the one on the 19th. Unless its a dead tie, one of us will say Yahoo, followed by a lawsuit from yahoo.com

[capricorn]

I don't think this was what brought NDP down. I could be wrong but my guess is two factors worked against NDP. The niqab since they were stronger than Liberals on the issue and they lost a lot of support in Quebec because of that but Liberals were not as strong in Quebec to start with and second, the strategic voters abandoning ship joining Liberals as they realize that Liberals are the only force to stop another nightmare.

Without minimizing the impact of the niqab issue, with regard to Quebec, one thing seems clear. It appears Quebecers have begun to forgive the Liberals for their past sins. Also, in terms of leaders, Trudeau is a son of Quebec whereas Harper is not. As for Mulcair, he's not at all like "Le bon Jack" and could not maintain the momentum sparked by Jack Layton.

[waldo]

Wow...what a collapse. I guess the October surprises backfired on the NDP...such a pity.

please sir! There is no need for you to continue your attempts to Americanize the Canadian election with your repeated references to "October Surprise"... how many is that now?

[bush_cheney2004]

Mulcair's big mistake was trying to "Americanize" the campaign with references to "race card" and "identity politics" when a majority of Canadians don't like people walking around in public dressed like Klansmen from Canada's dark past. They even went to Australia to import a dog whistle.

[capricorn]

Mulcair's big mistake was trying to "Americanize" the campaign with references to "race card" and "identity politics" when a majority of Canadians don't like people walking around in public dressed like Klansmen from Canada's dark past. They even went to Australia to import a dog whistle.

Another misstep on Mulcair's part since the TPP deal was struck, was to invoke Hillary Clinton's name a number of times where he effectively said "like Hillary Clinton the NDP will negotiate a better deal for Canadians". Oh, oh! That sent the socialists into a tizzy and most are now flocking to the left leaning Liberals.

[bush_cheney2004]

Another misstep on Mulcair's part since the TPP deal was struck, was to invoke Hillary Clinton's name a number of times where he effectively said "like Hillary Clinton the NDP will negotiate a better deal for Canadians". Oh, oh! That sent the socialists into a tizzy and most are now flocking to the left leaning Liberals.

Good point....can't have it both ways. Canada's "natural ruling party" logically benefits from spooked NDP supporters, even if they have to hold their nose.

[Vancouver King]

I don't think this was what brought NDP down. I could be wrong but my guess is two factors worked against NDP. The niqab since they were stronger than Liberals on the issue and they lost a lot of support in Quebec because of that but Liberals were not as strong in Quebec to start with and second, the strategic voters abandoning ship joining Liberals as they realize that Liberals are the only force to stop another nightmare.

Absolutely correct in my view. All the 'tribal' political consciousness of Quebec required to jettison the NDP was the niqab issue and Mulcair came down on the wrong side of the issue..

Overnight, a regions politics were thrown into a blender. Posters light Toad Brother who argue it was the TPP or other factor are simply wrong - the niqab ignited what was a stable Quebec political scene.