Harry

It was a good election campaign. Congratulations to the winners.

Quite the contrast for voters to choose from- should be an excellent day tomorrow for the NDP. This election comes down to a choice Harper and his feral campaign Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff are not players in the battle for Quebec (who would have thought that, three weeks ago?). So what about them? Mr. Harper, clearly, has decided to try to win this election on the ground. He had a mainstream, majoritarian appeal available to him. But it would seem that appealing to Canada's majority is not in Mr. Harper's DNA. Instead he is seeking to squeak into a mandate through “micro-targeting.” What Mr. Harper has had to say – on the road, in the debates, in his advertising – is all about voter suppression. Basically, Mr. Harper is trying to persuade non-Conservatives to stay home and not vote, by sliming his opponents. There is a feral grubbiness to this Conservative campaign – not unlike Mr. Parizeau's “boil them like lobsters” stealth separatism strategy. It might work, barely. But it is not a quest for an inspiring and transformative mandate. And like Mr. Parizeau, it probably doesn't have lasting appeal. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/brian-topp/this-election-comes-down-to-a-choice/article1997456/

Bin Laden's death will be perceived as good news by most Canadians, and they also associate Jack Layton as a happy guy and good news guy, compared to miserable Harper, so the good news of Bin Laden's death will be associated with Layton and will help the NDP tomorrow.

NDP - 126 seats Cons - 125 seats Libs - 39 seats Bloc - 17 seats Ind - 1 seat Total - 308 seats

So the NDP & the Cons are basically tied given the margin of error - how many credible pollsters are saying it's tied now? My hunch is Mr Layton will be having a very good day tomorrow.

Bryan is always flailing about cherry-picking polls, like Compas which isn't even credible. Nobody, and I'll repeat nobody, at this point knows what is going to happen tomorrow - there are only two sure things and that is Harper has lost any possibility for a majority, and the Liberals have tanked.

Craig Oliver of CTV just predicted a NDP minority government but I'm wondering if it may end up being a majority for Layton.

If today's polling is any indication, please, please bring out some more smears on Layton. The polls jumped 2% in the NDP's favour over the Cons overnite, and Layton is now pulling away from Harper in the best choice for Prime Minister Index.

This poll and Layton skyrocketing away from Harper in the Leadership Index explain the reasons the Conservatives don't want to talk about the polls today - it's easy to understand why. Gap between Tories, NDP narrows to 6 points in 11th-hour polling http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gap-between-tories-ndp-narrows-to-6-points-in-11th-hour-polling/article2005684/

Leadership Index - what wins elections! Smilin' Jack must be feeling very very good today, this last day of the campaigning. Date / Pollster / Layton / Harper / Ignatieff May 1 / Nanos / 97.4 / 88.0 / 39.1 Apr 28 / Nanos / 95.3 / 83.2 / 34.3 Apr 27 / Ipsos-Reid / 45% / 42% / 13% Apr 27 / Forum / 33% / 32% / 14% Apr 27 / Nanos / 86.2 / 82.7 / 40.1

Nanos Leadership Index Disaster for Harper and Ignatieff as Layton takes a HUGE jump upwards As I suspected that attempted smear by Sun Media has only helped to reimforce Layton as the person Canadians want to lead the country. Layton - 97.4, Up 16.9 Harper - 88.0, Down 6.5 Ignatieff - 39.1, Down 6.1 Duceppe - 8.0, Down 1.5

Canada's tin pot dictator Harper will allow no quesions from the media today - what a coward!

Jack Layton - The Comeback Kid Cane and able — Layton's humanity hits right note: observers But the pundits all underestimated the Tao of Jack and his Walking Stick — the crutch that has become a Churchillian-like symbol brandished with increased frequency in Layton's public battles against his political enemies. "It looked like the beginning of the end of his political career," said Ottawa communications specialist Barry McLoughlin. "We saw two things happen to him back to back, that showed his humanity. We saw him on our screens looking gaunt, older, frail and very vulnerable." Then, adds McLoughlin, Layton suddenly connected with Canadians in a deeper way. "He struck an emotional chord just by the way he faced up to his setbacks and went about his work. He appeared in the House of Commons after his hip surgery and showed he was a fighter. People developed an emotional relationship with him that wasn't there before." Something similar happened between Quebecers and Lucien Bouchard when the former Bloc Quebecois leader contracted flesh-eating disease in 1994, added McLoughlin. "It's not about the cane," he said, "but about the humanity it shows." http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Cane+able+Layton+humanity+hits+right+note+observers/4692038/story.html

Yea, let's choose someone who is miserable. Another terrible day for Harper on the campaign trail John Ivison: Why are Harper supporters heckling the media? Quite why the press conference needed to be held in front of a hostile crowd is not clear, unless it was an attempt to intimidate journalists. Other parties hold the presser in a separate room after the event. Party spindoctors suggest Mr. Harper likes the visuals of being surrounded by supporters but it lends the appearance of a lynch mob when the inevitable happens. One suspects the visuals of this morning’s episode will be replayed on newscasts across the country and confirm many people’s impressions of the Conservative Party as the home of anger, intolerance and blind partisanship. The Tories message control is a genuinely worrying aspect of a government that, in many other ways, is best qualified to lead this country. As WT Stanbury, professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, wrote in the Hill Times in 2009: “The wall of selective silence and control shrouds the entire government and undermines the free flow of information citizens could normally expect.” He called it “the most extreme example of court government in Canada’s history”. If the Conservatives do win majority on Monday, it would seem likely that much of the day to day rancour in Parliament would be reduced, as losing parties rebuilt and the government concentrated more on governing than on re-election. There would be less control over MPs and committees might actually be let loose to do good work. But there is not likely to be any thaw in relations between the Prime Minister and the press gallery. More likely, Mr. Harper will see it as payback time for having had to endure humiliating incidents like the Richmond Hill auto shop. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/30/john-ivison-why-are-harper-supporters-heckling-the-media/

Jack's OK, but the coalition of losers, Harper and Ignatieff are both duds and need to go. That Jack, he's the mack 2 Despite the nutty policies, the polls say people love Layton. Why not? He's a hell of a guy They back Jack. Jack's got the knack. The others? They yak, but they lack. There you go: Some really (really) bad poetry, designed to neatly sum up Election 2011. There'll be lots of much smarter political analysis this weekend, but I'm sticking to my pithy rhyming couplets. Whether he captures the keys to 24 Sussex or not, the NDP's Jack Layton is the winner of this campaign, hands down. Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff have lost. Why, you ask? There are lots of reasons: Harper ran a lousy, uninspiring campaign. Ignatieff pushed for an election when he should have pulled. Both men are seen as conservative and conservative-lite, and the country is apparently fed up with policies that are nasty, brutish and short-sighted. But the main reason why Layton will make history Monday night? The best explanation for why he is going to be leader of Her Majesty's loyal Opposition - or maybe even her prime minister? Because Jack is the most likeable leader, that's why. He's a HOAG. I've written about my "Hell Of A Guy" theory in these pages before. As the political cliche goes, you can picture yourself at a tailgate party with Jack, swigging Buds, telling lies about the ones that got away. Steve-o and Iggy, you just can't. Standing behind a podium in an early-morning university class, giving you a lousy mark because you spelled "Milton Friedman" wrong in an essay, sure. But HOAGs? Nope. http://www.torontosu...ck-hes-the-mack