angrypenguin Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Not by any projection I'm seeing. You seem to have this tendency to look at the absolute extreme and then declare that that is what is happening. The two poll aggregators are not showing any such collapse. I kind of gather you're a left-of-center voter, and I tend to view your nightmare scenarios as some sort of bizarre way of trying to encourage the ABH camp. The NDP will still win seats in Quebec, the Tories and Liberals will divide the spoils of the Orange Crash, and there's no way the Tories are getting a majority, or anywhere near it. I'm at work, so I cant do enough research but IIRC the Abacus poll this AM showed a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives? Edited October 8, 2015 by angrypenguin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Liberals have the momentum based on polls released today. Conservative party's build on division strategy is not working. Polls released today: Forum puts Liberals at 35% and conservatives at 31%. In Ontario, the Liberals hold a slim lead with 38 per cent support, the Conservatives are sitting at 33 per cent and the NDP has dropped to 23 per cent. In Quebec, where the controversy over the niqab face veil worn continues to rage, the NDP remain in front ahead of the Liberals 34 per cent to 24 per cent support. The Conservatives sit at 23 per cent, CBC tracking poll puts Liberal ahead numerically both in popular vote (32.9% versus 32.4%) and in seats (127 for liberals and 124 for conservatives). The Signal puts conservatives numerically ahead at 33.3% versus 32.7% for Liberals however projects more seats for Liberals at 132 versus 130. Nanos poll put Liberals numerically ahead at 33.5% versus 32.7% for conservatives. Edited October 8, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Liberals have the momentum based on poll. Conservative party's build on division is not working. Polls released today: Forum puts Liberals at 35% and conservatives at 31%. In Ontario, the Liberals hold a slim lead with 38 per cent support, the Conservatives are sitting at 33 per cent and the NDP has dropped to 23 per cent. In Quebec, where the controversy over the niqab face veil worn continues to rage, the NDP remain in front ahead of the Liberals 34 per cent to 24 per cent support. The Conservatives sit at 23 per cent, CBC tracking poll puts Liberal ahead numerically both in popular vote (32.9% versus 32.4%( and in seats (127 for liberals and 124 for conservatives). The Signal puts conservatives numerically ahead at 33.3% versus 32.7% for Liberals however projects more seats for Liberals at 132 versus 130. Nanos poll put Liberals numerically ahead at 33.5% versus 32.7% for conservatives. The question then in lies whether or not that momentum can be sustained. My guess is "no". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dialamah Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) The question then in lies whether or not that momentum can be sustained. My guess is "no". My guess is "yes". Edited October 8, 2015 by dialamah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 My guess is "yes". 'Tis the beauty of a democracy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 And my guess is Liberal momentum will only accelerate in coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smeelious Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 And my guess is Liberal momentum will only accelerate in coming days. Popular vote has been kinda steady this week actually. The only place the Liberals have to take from is the NDP in Quebec at this point. I actually don't think we'll see much change in the popular vote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Momentum. Hah. You guys are funny. There's no such thing. This is a way people describe things with hindsight. I would be leery of anyone who tries to ship "momentum" as a factor in anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Popular vote has been kinda steady this week actually. The only place the Liberals have to take from is the NDP in Quebec at this point. I actually don't think we'll see much change in the popular vote In my view CBC's poll tracker is the best indication of who has the momentum and that clearly shows Liberals have the momentum. They numerically exceeded the conservatives in both popular vote and seat projection today for first time since I am monitoring this poll tracker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 I'm at work, so I cant do enough research but IIRC the Abacus poll this AM showed a statistical tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives? Yes, a statistical tie, but if 308 and The Signal are suggesting that the Tories main perceived advantage; it's vote efficiency, may be waning. If that's the case, the tendency of the two aggregators to award the Tories the upper hand even in a dead heat is being shifted. This suggests to me that the Liberals are being weighted more in tight races as the NDP fade. And no, I see no evidence that the Tories are gaining so much strength in Quebec that they're going to wipe the NDP out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Momentum. Hah. You guys are funny. There's no such thing. This is a way people describe things with hindsight. I would be leery of anyone who tries to ship "momentum" as a factor in anything. It's hard to call it momentum when even the seat projections are within a handful of seats for the Liberals and Tories. At this point it could go either way. But I still contend if Eric and the Signal guys are beginning to downgrade the Tories ability to work the split votes, maybe because of fading NDP fortunes, then that might be the first hint of a breakaway. Hey, I'll either be right or wrong! The only result I would be totally surprised by at this point was anyone getting a large minority or even a small majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Honestly I am both surprised and confused what you gentlemen are talking about when denying Liberal momentum which I view it as a great thing because I believe at this stage of the game whoever has the momentum will be the winner. Here is the evidence........ Forum poll showed a 6% lead for Tories on September 29 (9 days ago) and now same pollster is suggesting a 4% Liberal lead. EKOS suggested a 9% lead for Tories on September 22, a 7% Tory lead on September 29 and a 4.7% lead on October 5 and now only statistical tie of 1.8%. Nanos research consistently puts Liberals ahead in the month of October at least numerically ahead on all past 8 days in October. In September it was a switch between Liberals, NDP and conservatives. CBC's poll tracker which takes the average of all polls puts Liberals ahead both numerically and in seat projections for first time since I have been monitoring this poll. Edited October 8, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 The only result I would be totally surprised by at this point was anyone getting a large minority or even a small majority. I'd be surprised if Elizabeth May was Prime Minister on October 20th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 There's no such thing as momentum in these polls. If they polled the same people each week throughout the entire campaign and the results of that kind of polling showed changes in opinions then maybe, possibly you could call it momentum. But the idea that parties in motion stay in motion is naive. Anything can happen at any time. Momentum is meaningless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 It's just mind-boggling to me that the Conservatives could end up with 201 seats with 32.4% of the vote. The site doesn't show the percentage ranges, but it would be much higher than 32% with 201 seats won. It would probably be north of 40% if my guess is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Honestly I am both surprised and confused what you gentlemen are talking about when denying Liberal momentum which I view it as a great thing because I believe at this stage of the game whoever has the momentum will be the winner. Here is the evidence........ Forum poll showed a 6% lead for Tories on September 29 (9 days ago) and now same pollster is suggesting a 4% Liberal lead. EKOS suggested a 9% lead for Tories on September 22, a 7% Tory lead on September 29 and a 4.7% lead on October 5 and now only statistical tie of 1.8%. Nanos research consistently puts Liberals ahead in the month of October at least numerically ahead on all past 8 days in October. In September it was a switch between Liberals, NDP and conservatives. CBC's poll tracker which takes the average of all polls puts Liberals ahead both numerically and in seat projections for first time since I have been monitoring this poll. What I've seen as the NDP falters is that we have entered a neck in neck race between Tories and Liberals. Yes, I suppose you can observe the Liberals have been on the rise, and that implies momentum in a way, but to me it looks more like a redistribution of votes available to the NDP over to the Liberals, with the Tories sitting largely where they've been much for much of the campaign, and now instead of three parties orbiting 30%, we have two parties orbiting 32-33%. The real shift here, in my mind, isn't in the rather blunt indicator of overall popular vote, which I agree with cybercoma on, can't tell who the winner will be where two parties are in a statistical tie, but rather that it appears the NDP's faltering polling suggests the Conservatives' greatest asset, its vote efficiency, is being compromised. But its going to take a lot more regional and riding level data to fully understand that, and that's not something the Nanos nightly poll is going to show you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Honestly I am both surprised and confused what you gentlemen are talking about when denying Liberal momentum which I view it as a great thing because I believe at this stage of the game whoever has the momentum will be the winner. Here is the evidence........ EKOS suggested a 9% lead for Tories on September 22, a 7% Tory lead on September 29 and a 4.7% lead on October 5 and now only statistical tie of 1.8%. A new EKOS poll just out placing Liberal in a numerical lead for the first time since February .....If all these recent polls especially the ones today (similarly Forum placed them in lead by 4 points today) do not show momentum for Liberals I don't know what do!!!!. And yes I agree it comes from NDP supporters jumping ship as they see Liberals as the only force capable of blocking a nightmare. But momentum is momentum regardless of where it comes from. Well done Trudeau and Liberals. Keep up the good work. [Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s. The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well, particularly outside of Montreal and Western Quebec. ................................ http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_8_2015.pdf Edited October 8, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 A new EKOS poll just out placing Liberal in a numerical lead for th efirst time ..... [Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s. The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well, particularly outside of Montreal and Western Quebec. ................................ http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_8_2015.pdf But wait, Vancouver King just told us this morning the Tories were cruising to a win in Quebec!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 But wait, Vancouver King just told us this morning the Tories were cruising to a win in Quebec!!! Which pollster showed that? I must have missed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kageshima Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 So I was checking the Signal today and noticed something very odd about it's predictions for Quebec. Apparently the Liberals are leading in Outremont. In case you don't know, that's Mulcair's riding. wut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 So I was checking the Signal today and noticed something very odd about it's predictions for Quebec. Apparently the Liberals are leading in Outremont. In case you don't know, that's Mulcair's riding. wut 308 shows the NDP at 43.1 and the Liberals at 34.9, with a 67% probability. From that I would infer that while there is a possibility that Mulcair could be defeated in his own riding, it's still in his favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kageshima Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 308 shows the NDP at 43.1 and the Liberals at 34.9, with a 67% probability. From that I would infer that while there is a possibility that Mulcair could be defeated in his own riding, it's still in his favor. I fully expect Mulcair to win his own riding, but those Signal numbers are just odd. Makes me question the validity of the site (granted, I'd like it to be valid since I'm a Liberal supporter and it's currently predicting that the Liberals will win). Maybe it's just a black sheep riding, or maybe many of the riding predictions on the Signal are inaccurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 So I was checking the Signal today and noticed something very odd about it's predictions for Quebec. Apparently the Liberals are leading in Outremont. In case you don't know, that's Mulcair's riding. wut It's based on a model. They don't have riding-by-riding info. This is what I mean about these seat projections. They can be pretty inaccurate. Mulcair is pretty unlikely to lose his seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Another poll just released and another great news!!!!. Leger Marketing just placed Liberals ahead by 4% at 34%, Tories at 30% and NDP at 25%. This study was conducted online across all Canadian regions with citizens who are eligible to vote in Canada. For this study, 2,087 respondents, including 1,006 in Quebec, 18 years of age or over, were surveyed between October 5 and October 7, 2015. Léger overrepresented the Quebec sample in order to obtain more accurate results for this province. However, when looking at national total figures, all regions, including Quebec, were weighted back to reflect the actual size of each region. In Quebec, Liberals tied with NDP at 28% and conservatives at 20%. Even niqab is not working for conservatives now. They have to find another subject to try to exploit and divide and conquer now!!!. http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20151008.pdf Justin Trudeau is now the first choice for Canadians as Prime Minister - 23% Stephen Harper second choice - 22% Thomas Mulcair third at 21% None of above - 13% Don't know - 12% Edited October 9, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hydraboss Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Stephane Harper? Was that just your error or did Leger actually print that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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