Federal Election Polls

cybercoma · August 23, 2015

Yes. I have told an old bf who constantly complained about his dissatisfaction to instead redirect his passion to running for something! Quit the complaints and do something about it!

I mean, you don't even have to run. You could. But it takes a certain kind of person to put yourself up for public scrutiny that way. There's TONS you can do behind the scenes.

WestCoastRunner · August 23, 2015

I mean, you don't even have to run. You could. But it takes a certain kind of person to put yourself up for public scrutiny that way. There's TONS you can do behind the scenes.

Exactly. Encourage a female friend to run. We certainly could use more of them!

Vancouver King · August 24, 2015

Yes. I have told an old bf who constantly complained about his dissatisfaction to instead redirect his passion to running for something! Quit the complaints and do something about it!

Or join a forum like this one and post your counter views. In just a few weeks this site will be near over-run with voters engaged in a 4 year cycle of familiarizing themselves with the election issues. Why not have your views read?

eyeball · August 24, 2015

If they don't vote....they deserve whatever politics that results from those who do vote.

Interesting turn of a phrase. Sure, I suppose they deserve the government they get but the politics? We all get that whether we like it or not and participating in it is pretty much the same as perpetuating it.

Topaz · August 25, 2015

Or join a forum like this one and post your counter views. In just a few weeks this site will be near over-run with voters engaged in a 4 year cycle of familiarizing themselves with the election issues. Why not have your views read?

I think the Tories are busy in their war room monitoring the forums because I've mention certain item on here about the Tories and within a day or two, wow, they are talking about it.

cybercoma · August 25, 2015

I stand very corrected on those BC numbers. The NDP has QC level support on the coast, consistently in federal polls and local BC polls.

Edited August 25, 2015 by cybercoma

Smallc · August 25, 2015

With the rumours of an NDP increase to the DND budget as an upcoming promise....and an increase in GIS (a huge business boost for me)...I'm really not sure where my vote is now.

Vancouver King · August 25, 2015

The newest Nanos poll released today contains information of positive interest to Conservatives.

A week ago Nanos released these numbers for the Ontario region battleground:

CPC - 42

Lib - 29

NDP - 23

No one here believed these figures due to Nanos' unusual methodology (4 week rolling average) and small weekly sample size (250). It was deemed an outlier and every other poll from Forum to Abacus seemed to confirm it's rogue nature. Now consider this week's Ontario numbers from Nanos:

CPC - 40

Libs - 32

NDP - 21

Far from being a one-time anomaly, Nanos again has Conservatives comfortably in front in all important Ontario. What does Nanos see that other polling firms do not?

cybercoma · August 25, 2015

Again, to illustrate the problem with Nanos's methodology. He has a 4-week rolling average. The total number of Ontarians in the poll is 263 for all 4 weeks. That means week to week, he's losing and accumulating about 65 people from Ontario. Do you think the opinions of a random group of 65 people from Ontario is sufficient to generalize about the voting intentions of the entire province? Localizing the Nanos numbers is as close to useless as you can get.

Edited August 25, 2015 by cybercoma

waldo · August 25, 2015

A week ago Nanos released these numbers for the Ontario region battleground:

CPC - 42

Lib - 29

NDP - 23

Now consider this week's Ontario numbers from Nanos:

CPC - 40

Libs - 32

NDP - 21

that Nanos Poll has no legitimacy... none at all! Just look at that Liberal gain! Surely, all those MLW statements from MLW experts concerning perceived Wynne/Trudeau ties... surely those speak to the failed methodology of Nanos! Surely! Surely we'll hear from member 'Simple' on this.

PIK · August 25, 2015

The newest Nanos poll released today contains information of positive interest to Conservatives.

A week ago Nanos released these numbers for the Ontario region battleground:

CPC - 42

Lib - 29

NDP - 23

No one here believed these figures due to Nanos' unusual methodology (4 week rolling average) and small weekly sample size (250). It was deemed an outlier and every other poll from Forum to Abacus seemed to confirm it's rogue nature. Now consider this week's Ontario numbers from Nanos:

CPC - 40

Libs - 32

NDP - 21

Far from being a one-time anomaly, Nanos again has Conservatives comfortably in front in all important Ontario. What does Nanos see that other polling firms do not?

Kathleen Wynne.

PIK · August 25, 2015

Exactly. Encourage a female friend to run. We certainly could use more of them!

Why?

Vancouver King · August 25, 2015

Kathleen Wynne.

Then why, as Waldo just pointed out, do the latest Nanos numbers show a moderate increase for Liberals. If Wynne was a negative factor for Liberals, we should expect a decrease in Liberal support.

waldo · August 25, 2015

I stand very corrected on those BC numbers. The NDP has QC level support on the coast, consistently in federal polls and local BC polls.

just released Insights West poll: British Columbians Moving Away from Conservatives in Canadian Campaign

if the federal election were held today,

- 41% of decided voters in British Columbia (+6 since an Insights West poll conducted in early May) would cast a ballot for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in their constituency, followed by

- the Liberal Party with 24% (-1),

- the governing Conservative Party with 22% (-7),

- and the Green Party with 12% (+2).

.

PIK · August 25, 2015

King,the conservatives just being that high will tell you she is hurting the liberals.

Vancouver King · August 25, 2015

Again, to illustrate the problem with Nanos's methodology. He has a 4-week rolling average. The total number of Ontarians in the poll is 263 for all 4 weeks. That means week to week, he's losing and accumulating about 65 people from Ontario. Do you think the opinions of a random group of 65 people from Ontario is sufficient to generalize about the voting intentions of the entire province? Localizing the Nanos numbers is as close to useless as you can get.

So you contend this is a margin of error issue based on the small Ontario sample.

What are the chances of two consecutive polls showing essentially the same result when both polls, apparently, have prohibitively high margins of error? I'm guessing the chances are unlikely.

If there is a third consecutive Nanos sounding with similar numbers, there must be another factor involved.

Big Guy · August 26, 2015

Harper has just announced an initiative to extend digital electronic access across Canada;

http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2014/08/25/pm-announces-important-investment-boost-high-speed-internet-nunavut-and-nunavik

I think that is good news and should boost his support numbers. Perhaps he should spend some time impressing people (and especially those in the PMO) that these digital communications work only if people actually read their e-mail.

It appears that Ray Novak and Chris Woodcock had not been taught that you are supposed to read your e-mails.

Edited August 26, 2015 by Big Guy

cybercoma · August 26, 2015

Harper has just announced an initiative to extend digital electronic access across Canada;

It's all BS when it's coupled with destroying the long form census and muzzling scientists. He's not bolstering anything.

Vancouver King · August 26, 2015

Angus Reid just released their latest poll and it's not great news for Liberals:

NDP - 36

CPC - 32

Libs - 23

Green- 4

Bloq - 4

Highlights:

Conservative supporters are unshakeable in their party support but in answer to the question, "do you have a very favorable view of Stephen Harper?", only 15% answered in the affirmative. Is this another way of Tory supporters saying, in effect, we support the Conservative party despite Stephen Harper's leadership?

Recent regional Quebec numbers showing complete NDP dominance (NDP - 47, Liberals - 20) are now confirmed by a third source as Angus Reid has it NDP - 51, Liberals 17. Let me be the first to say it: The Quebec regional race is over - put 60 seats in the NDP column.

The all-important Ontario race is anything but over. Angus Reid has it:

CPC - 35

NDP - 33

Libs - 28

Add in Nanos' strange numbers (CPC-40,Liberals-32,NDP-21) and your guess appears as solid as anybody else's.

Smallc · August 26, 2015

If this continues, the NDP will walk away with this election. I can't predict whether or not it will continue.

cybercoma · August 26, 2015

A lot can happen in 2 months.

Shady · August 26, 2015

Kathleen Wynne.

Bingo. She's the gift that keeps on giving. She could single handedly keep Stephen Harper Prime Minister.

Evening Star · August 27, 2015

Forum: NDP 40 LPC 30 CPC 23; NDP leading in Ontario, 41% support in SK/MB, over 50% support in QC.

This seems almost unbelievable. We'll need to see what other polls look like.

Topaz · August 27, 2015

It's all BS when it's coupled with destroying the long form census and muzzling scientists. He's not bolstering anything.

I read this about a month ago, it was coming to rural areas, its nothing new.

waldo · August 27, 2015

Forum: NDP 40 LPC 30 CPC 23; NDP leading in Ontario, 41% support in SK/MB, over 50% support in QC.

This seems almost unbelievable. We'll need to see what other polls look like.

Forum Research Polling - August Polls: