Your thoughts on the next Federal Government.

[CITIZEN_2015]

My thoughts. Trudeau government will be defeated in a non confidence vote in the spring of 2025. There will be  a Federal election in April or May of 2025 and a minority Conservative government will be elected which will last one to two years. Your thoughts if you care to share?

Edited September 25, 2024 by CITIZEN_2015

[CdnFox]

18 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

My thoughts. Trudeau government will be defeated in a non confident vote in the spring of 2025. There will be  a Federal election in April or May of 2025 and a minority Conservative government will be elected which will last one to two years. Your thoughts if you care to share?

that's extremely plausible. Jagmeet, who actually is in danger of losing in his riding, will have his pension by then. He gets it in February. It's to the ndp's advantage to go before the final date on the budget will almost certainly give them something to pretend to be outraged about.

The fly in the ointment to your theory is the bloc. There is absolutely zero benefit to them to go to an election. They will want to stretch out their power as long and as far as they can. They will almost certainly use the time to squeeze what few concessions they can out of the liberals. Then they will force the Conservatives to commit to keeping whatever they get if they're elected and sell themselves as the saviors of Quebec.

For that reason I'm going to say it will probably go the whole distance and we'll see a fall election 2025. The block will almost certainly prop up the liberals unless the liberals refuse to give them anything. And the NDP in the conservatives can't take down the government unless the block says yes

Call it a 30% chance for a spring election and 70% chance for a fall election

Edited September 25, 2024 by CdnFox

[Queenmandy85]

I don't know where this CPC minority idea comes from. The seat count for the CPC is predicted to be 220 seats. That is one of the largest majorities in history. It rivals Diefenbaker and Mulroney's super majorities. The CPC has maintaines over 200 seats since Feb. 11, 2024 and is unlikely to drop below 200 before an election 11 months from now.

An early election is not in any party's interest except for the CPC. 

[Michael Hardner]

13 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

My thoughts. Trudeau government will be defeated in a non confident vote in the spring of 2025. There will be  a Federal election in April or May of 2025 and a minority Conservative government will be elected which will last one to two years. Your thoughts if you care to share?

It's non CONFIDENCE.

 

I would agree but it will be a majority government.

[Aristides]

The Singh pension thing is just more Poilievier nonsense. He qualified for a pension when he was 31 and would receive $230K a year after reaching 65. If Singh qualifies he would only receive $66K.

[CITIZEN_2015]

3 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I don't know where this CPC minority idea comes from. The seat count for the CPC is predicted to be 220 seats. That is one of the largest majorities in history. It rivals Diefenbaker and Mulroney's super majorities. The CPC has maintaines over 200 seats since Feb. 11, 2024 and is unlikely to drop below 200 before an election 11 months from now.

An early election is not in any party's interest except for the CPC. 

When it come to actual voting many Canadians will think twice before giving a blank cheque to Conservatives. Many remember the dark days of Harper majority government. Besides there are a number of months till the election day and the economy is rapidly recovering with inflation below 2% on election day and interest and mortgage rate down again close to historic lows by mid next year and rapid employment gains. Liberals already taken concrete steps to curb student visa and temporary workers which was of deep concern to many Canadians and much more is needed.

Edited September 25, 2024 by CITIZEN_2015

[CdnFox]

5 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I don't know where this CPC minority idea comes from. The seat count for the CPC is predicted to be 220 seats. That is one of the largest majorities in history. It rivals Diefenbaker and Mulroney's super majorities. The CPC has maintaines over 200 seats since Feb. 11, 2024 and is unlikely to drop below 200 before an election 11 months from now.

An early election is not in any party's interest except for the CPC. 

Depends on how you look at it. Sure it's going to be bad for any party, but it could be a lot worse and may yet be.

Jagmeet Could very well find himself even lower in the polls next fall. He's going to get murdered no matter what but he might get murdered a lot less if he goes in the spring then if it goes all the way. But of course he has to get his pension first.

Honestly it's probably in the best interest of the liberals to go early.  But not in justin's interest. So .....

The only true winners here are likely to be the bloc. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

When it come to actual voting many Canadians will think twice before giving a blank cheque to Conservatives. Many remember the dark days of Harper majority government. Besides there are a number of months till the election day and the economy is rapidly recovering with inflation below 2% on election day and interest and mortgage rate down again close to historic lows by mid next year and rapid employment gains. Liberals already taken concrete steps to curb student visa and temporary workers which was of deep concern to many Canadians and much more is needed.

Harper is one of the more popular prime ministers. 

Who's the best:

Who do Canadians think was the country's best prime minister? (thewrit.ca)

And they've been doing that research since the 60's i believe. 

The economy is a disaster and will not 'rapidly recover' at all. the job numbers are in the hole,  quality of life and gdp per capita is crashing, and inflation and interest rates are still WAY above target and even when they hit target (assuming they do) then the prices won't go down - they'll still be unaffordable.  It'll be years for that to wear off even if inflation hit target tomorrow. 

NOBODY is happy with the libs 'student visa' fixes .

And we're still bringing people in at insane rates which means housing will still go up and health will go down. 

Canadians would happily give Satan a blank cheque rather than live through even another year of this horrific disaster.  He'll win a majority barring some sort of weird event like it's proven PP eats babies for a hobby.  (Maybe even then.)

[CITIZEN_2015]

I do agree if election is held today the Conservatives will form a majority government with 40+% of votes, but election day is 6 to 12 months from now and a lot can change. For a minority they just need to drop by 6 to 8% and with inflation and interest rates falling rapidly and scare tactics opposition parties can use to scare voters into not voting a majority (like the cut and burn PP is promising) they will succeed to create a small dent into that 42% support during the one to two months long campaign. Remember even Harper was elected first time as a minority government.

Edited September 25, 2024 by CITIZEN_2015

[herbie]

21 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

the Conservative party cannot save us

Well you're right about that.
The problem is many people think change for the worse is better than no change at all.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

I do agree if election is held today the Conservatives will form a majority government with 40+% of votes, but election day is 6 to 12 months from now and a lot can change.

i'll grant you that it's theoretically possible... but extremely unlikely. 

Quote

For a minority they just need to drop by 6 to 8% and with inflation and interest rates falling rapidly and scare tactics opposition parties can use to scare voters into not voting a majority (like the cut and burn PP is promising) they will succeed to create a small dent into that 42% support during the one to two months long campaign. Remember even Harper was elected first time as a minority government.

Just need to drop 6 - 8 percent    Oh is that all   

They'd need to drop a full 8 percent in the right places (ontario) and the libs would have to pick up that support. That's a pretty massive change. Like... really really not likely. 

The way things are there's an even greater chance they'll actually increase rather than decrease. 

Further the liberals supporters are not motivated. They're going to have a hell of a time getting out the vote. 

It's always possible something could happen and it could go differently, this IS canadian  politics.  Which is why trudeau won't leave.  but - it's very very unlikely. 

The next gov't is most likely a strong cpc majority 

[Nefarious Banana]

4 hours ago, herbie said:

The problem is many people think change for the worse is better than no change at all.

Pierre Poilievre is un-tried as a PM.  How do you know he'll be worse than the cull that holds that office now?  You're just making stuff up again.

[herbie]

16 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Pierre Poilievre is un-tried as a PM.  How do you know he'll be worse

Because he's a Tory, a new Worse than Tory Tory. No positive initiatives in the least, blatantly anti-environment, anti-social programs, retrogressive negativist.

[CdnFox]

34 minutes ago, herbie said:

Because he's a Tory, a new Worse than Tory Tory. No positive initiatives in the least, blatantly anti-environment, anti-social programs, retrogressive negativist.

So in other words because the voices in your head say so. 

The grits and the dips have driven this nation to the edge, trashed it's finances for at least a generation, turned everyone against each other, and broken all of our services and institutions. 

But you'll support them because a student of one of the most popular prime ministers in history is a  (gasp!!!) EEEEVIL TOOOOORRRYYYY.   (they steal children you know!)

Tell the voices in your head to grow up. 

[Nefarious Banana]

40 minutes ago, herbie said:

Because he's a Tory, a new Worse than Tory Tory. No positive initiatives in the least, blatantly anti-environment, anti-social programs, retrogressive negativist.

Off your meds again ... wow!

[Michael Hardner]

8 hours ago, herbie said:

Because he's a Tory, a new Worse than Tory Tory. No positive initiatives in the least, blatantly anti-environment, anti-social programs, retrogressive negativist.

He's not Conservative, he's a faux populist.  Calling him a Tory is a mislabelling, as that tradition ended when he took the leadership.  There's no paternal, royalist nobility here or even a belief that the elite will take care of the peasants.  There is him winning and then holding power as far as I can see.  But let's see what happens when he wins.

From his telling, he'll fire bureaucrats then sell the CBC and we'll all have gold overfilling our pockets...

[Moonlight Graham]

12 hours ago, herbie said:

Because he's a Tory, a new Worse than Tory Tory. No positive initiatives in the least, blatantly anti-environment, anti-social programs, retrogressive negativist.

I'd say he's sort of a typical small government conservative.  So not a fan of many social programs unless they're vitally necessary. He definitely seems against helping climate change.

He's also socially conservative, but doesn't seem very religious.

[Moonlight Graham]

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

He's not Conservative, he's a faux populist.  Calling him a Tory is a mislabelling, as that tradition ended when he took the leadership.  There's no paternal, royalist nobility here or even a belief that the elite will take care of the peasants.  There is him winning and then holding power as far as I can see.  But let's see what happens when he wins.

From his telling, he'll fire bureaucrats then sell the CBC and we'll all have gold overfilling our pockets...

Will be interesting to see what he does with the CBC.  Getting rid of it seems a bit extreme but could happen.   Most Canadians wouldn't be in favor i imagine.  He should do what Canadians want

Edited September 26, 2024 by Moonlight Graham

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Will be interesting to see what he does with the CBC.  Getting rid of it seems a bit extreme but could happen.   Most Canadians wouldn't be in favor i imagine.  He should do what Canadians want

As with Trump, I will try to keep an open mind when PP comes in.

I think that a full restructuring of the CBC could be a great thing.

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

He's not Conservative, he's a faux populist.  

Well that's what we would expect a leftist to say.

[Michael Hardner]

37 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Well that's what we would expect a leftist to say.

So?

 

[Five of swords]

On 9/24/2024 at 7:25 PM, CITIZEN_2015 said:

My thoughts. Trudeau government will be defeated in a non confidence vote in the spring of 2025. There will be  a Federal election in April or May of 2025 and a minority Conservative government will be elected which will last one to two years. Your thoughts if you care to share?

My thoughts are that elections change nothing. If elections could change anything, then they wouldn't be legal.

 

An elected politician is just like casting a movie. Do you want Robert deniro playing prime minister or do you want Billy crystal? They will still be speaking the same script. You have no say in the script or the producer or the director. But you do get to pretend you have a say in government and blame all the people who vote wrong for all the issues in the country.

Edited September 26, 2024 by Five of swords

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

So?

 

So the opinion is coloured by the fact that you as a left wing person you have an interest in casting dispersion on Polievre rather than raising valid points. 

The fact is that political parties evolve and reflect the current thinking. The tories of John A's day were not the tories of the PC gov'ts and they were not the tories of the CPC,  and you're not really qualified as an outsider looking in to comment on whether he's a tory or a conservative or not. 

Attempting to dismiss him as a populist is a weak minded low brow low effort insult that is what people who have no real argument make.  He's not a populist, he's addressing the issues that Canadians care about most.  Actually caring about the people's needs may be popuLAR but it's not popuLIST.   Populist is what the bitter left says when they can't come up with a good argument.  Trudeau was 10 times more of a populist than Poilevre, and yet i don't hear you calling him that. 

10 years of left-wing politics has left Canada broke and broken. More than ever in our history we are a nation divided. Our economic future looks poor at best.

And despite that you still want to see people vote for the left wing because you are so tribal and blinded by your bigotry and hatred that you can't get past the fact that somebody who says they want to fix the problems might get elected over your preferred failed parties.

 

Sorry, didn't think I had to spell all that out. But there you go

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

As with Trump, I will try to keep an open mind when PP comes in.

 

You literally just called him a faux populist.

Your mind is already closed.

[Dougie93]

22 hours ago, herbie said:

Well you're right about that.
The problem is many people think change for the worse is better than no change at all.

the Liberals have overreached

furthermore, Trudeau is an incompetent dictator

it's the Woke Progressive lunacy of the Liberals, going left of even the NDP

which is enabling the Conservatives to rise from the centre right

the Liberals can save themselves by disavowing Trudeau and coming back to the centre anytime

problem being the party has been supplanted by the TruAnon cult of the personality

dragging them to the brink of being wiped out

couldn't happen to a nicer bunch

[herbie]

17 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

He's not Conservative, he's a faux populist.  Calling him a Tory is a mislabelling

He's a populist pseudo-consrvative. Pandering to every malcontent who'll pad his chances