Deluge Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 11 hours ago, August1991 said: You miss my point. These six/seven states are now like, uh, Illinois - with Chicago. ====== When was the last time a Republican won the overall, popular vote? Nixon in 1972? To be president in 2025, Trump must win with margins like Reagan. Reagan won Illinois in 1980 and 1984. That's in your wet dreams. In the real world, it looks more like this: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 8 hours ago, August1991 said: True. In the mind of young urban American progressives, they are simply helping another person to do what the person would do. Nothing illegal. It was once called: "Registering, get out the vote." Since 2020, the Dems discovered kryptonite yeah yeah crazy talk crazy talk blah blah . I don't know why so many of you leftie types on this board can't just speak plain english or articulate their thoughts properly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 I have maintained since Jan. 2020 that if Trump runs in 2024.. he wins. I do not like Trump but my approval is not necessary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 1 Report Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, impartialobserver said: I have maintained since Jan. 2020 that if Trump runs in 2024.. he wins. I do not like Trump but my approval is not necessary I'm curious what made you feel that way? I had honestly thought there was no coming back from that defeat but he has a genuine path to victory so you're more correct than i was at the time. What was your reasoning if i may ask? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted February 1 Report Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, CdnFox said: I'm curious what made you feel that way? I had honestly thought there was no coming back from that defeat but he has a genuine path to victory so you're more correct than i was at the time. What was your reasoning if i may ask? the only reason that Trump lost was Covid. Well, covid is mostly done and over with. Second, he narrowly lost in some states; Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It stands to reason that he could flip the script in those 4 and therefore win. Biden is about as inspiring and charismatic as the Clear Eyes guy (from the commercials). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caswell Thomas Posted February 1 Report Share Posted February 1 On 1/19/2024 at 9:18 PM, robosmith said: So you cast votes for every member of your Party as a single block? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 1 Report Share Posted February 1 55 minutes ago, impartialobserver said: the only reason that Trump lost was Covid. Well, covid is mostly done and over with. Second, he narrowly lost in some states; Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. It stands to reason that he could flip the script in those 4 and therefore win. Biden is about as inspiring and charismatic as the Clear Eyes guy (from the commercials). fair points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 3 Author Report Share Posted February 3 On 1/31/2024 at 12:23 PM, CdnFox said: yeah yeah crazy talk crazy talk blah blah . I don't know why so many of you leftie types on this board can't just speak plain english or articulate their thoughts properly. Trump will not win the key counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia... He has no chance in 2024 unless he wins huge majorities. Critically, Pennsylvania is now like Cook County in Illinois DeSantis understood the game. Trump is a NY real estate guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 54 minutes ago, August1991 said: Trump will not win the key counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia... He has no chance in 2024 unless he wins huge majorities. Critically, Pennsylvania is now like Cook County in Illinois DeSantis understood the game. Trump is a NY real estate guy. The polling does not indicate you are correct. But we will see of course -long way to the election. Should be a raucous summer and fall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 7 Author Report Share Posted February 7 (edited) On 2/3/2024 at 1:50 AM, CdnFox said: The polling does not indicate you are correct. But we will see of course -long way to the election. Should be a raucous summer and fall Do the numbers on these critical States, in the counties, Trump has no chance. ==== Like 2022, the polls look good for Republicans. The Dems will win. Edited February 7 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 7 Author Report Share Posted February 7 (edited) Popular vote in November 2024? The Dems/Biden will win the popular vote. They have California and New York. But as a foreigner, I would look at the popular vote in Florida - and maybe Texas. ==== Given how certain counties vote in critical states, Trump has no chance of winning the electoral college. Or the popular vote overall. Biden will win bragging rights. Edited February 7 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 15 hours ago, August1991 said: Do the numbers on these critical States, in the counties, Trump has no chance. ==== Like 2022, the polls look good for Republicans. The Dems will win. I have done them. Pollsters have done them. Political pundits have done them. VEGAS has done them. They all say there's a 100 percent chance you're a bit of an 1diot Trump not only has a chance but its actually a pretty good chance. We'll see, campaigns matter and trump is actually not a great campaigner. But this is his third go around and he's probably learned a thing or two. Anyway you obvously know you're wrong or you'd have explained what you mean at least once when you bring this up. I wish you wouldn't pretend to be such a total political air head like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 Trump has 0 chance of winning certain Blue states; CA, NM, CO, OR, WA, IL, MA, MD, MN, CT, RI, NV and VT Trump has about a 50% chance of winning GA, PA, WI, MI, OH, and AZ.. those are key states. He narrowly lost in some of these. What makes someone think that a narrow win in 2016 followed by a narrow loss in 2020 can't turn into a narrow win in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebound Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, impartialobserver said: Trump has 0 chance of winning certain Blue states; CA, NM, CO, OR, WA, IL, MA, MD, MN, CT, RI, NV and VT Trump has about a 50% chance of winning GA, PA, WI, MI, OH, and AZ.. those are key states. He narrowly lost in some of these. What makes someone think that a narrow win in 2016 followed by a narrow loss in 2020 can't turn into a narrow win in 2024. It is too early for anybody to be certain of anything. We might not even know on November 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 Just now, Rebound said: It is too early for anybody to be certain of anything. We might not even know on November 6. True.. that also says that Trump has a chance. I do not like Trump and hope that he loses again. However, I am only one vote and do not control the outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 24 minutes ago, impartialobserver said: Trump has 0 chance of winning certain Blue states; CA, NM, CO, OR, WA, IL, MA, MD, MN, CT, RI, NV and VT Trump has about a 50% chance of winning GA, PA, WI, MI, OH, and AZ.. those are key states. He narrowly lost in some of these. What makes someone think that a narrow win in 2016 followed by a narrow loss in 2020 can't turn into a narrow win in 2024. There are a number of reasons. There's no doubt dems did ballot harvesting, which was possible due to the changes to cope with covid where ballots were auto mailed. That won't happen now. But - the polling in those areas certainly does indicate it's close and this time biden won't be able to hide in his basement. There is a track record there he'll have to answer for and many people are not happy with it. Here's some of the latest polling as far as paths to victoy for trump and biden. Click for bigger pictures. So - when we look at the current 'battleground' states where neither trump nor biden is polling decisively, there's 12 combinations that lead to a trump victory in the electoral college. Honestly - PA and georga might well get it done right there. So there's little doubt that there's a number of paths. And there's reason to beleive he could swing those battlegrounds over to him, at least enough to win. Whether that will happen is another story, we've got many months left to go. By september things should be starting to firm up nicely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 On 2/7/2024 at 12:40 PM, CdnFox said: ... We'll see, campaigns matter and trump is actually not a great campaigner. But this is his third go around and he's probably learned a thing or two. ... At the federal level, there are six or seven critical states: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Virginia. (California will go Dem, North Dakota will go Red, etc.... ) In the US, individual states decide voting procedures. Among these critical states, the Dems have all the Governor, control the voting procedures. ==== IMHO, in Nov 2024, Trump has zero chance of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 On 2/7/2024 at 12:40 PM, CdnFox said: I have done them. Pollsters have done them. Political pundits have done them. VEGAS has done them. They all say there's a 100 percent chance you're a bit of an 1diot .... I thought the same in 2016. And 2022. In 2016, I was certain that Hillary would win. In 2022, I was certain that there would be a Red wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 10 hours ago, August1991 said: At the federal level, there are six or seven critical states: Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Virginia. (California will go Dem, North Dakota will go Red, etc.... ) In the US, individual states decide voting procedures. Among these critical states, the Dems have all the Governor, control the voting procedures. ==== IMHO, in Nov 2024, Trump has zero chance of winning. Nobody cares. Your argument appears to be that states like georga cannot possibly go for trump. You're an !diot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2024 at 12:33 PM, CdnFox said: Nobody cares. Your argument appears to be that states like georga cannot possibly go for trump. You're an !diot. Look at the critical counties in Georgia, and Georgia's voting procedures. IMHO, Trump has zero chance of winning the electoral college for Georgia. ===== Trump is a Brooklyn real estate dealer. Biden has survived DC politics. Putin and Xi have survived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legato Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, August1991 said: Biden has survived DC politics. I don't think survived is the correct term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OftenWrong Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2024 at 2:05 AM, August1991 said: In 2016, I was certain that Hillary would win. In 2022, I was certain that there would be a Red wave. Guess you're not exactly batting a thousand, are you. 🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 30 minutes ago, August1991 said: Look at the critical counties in Georgia, and Georgia's voting procedures. IMHO, Trump has zero chance of winning the electoral college for Georgia. ===== Trump is a Brooklyn real estate dealer. Biden has survived DC politics. Putin and Xi have survived. Sure. Sure. So tell me your flat earth theory again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, CdnFox said: Sure. Sure. So tell me your flat earth theory again? Trump has no chance of winning the critical counties in Georgia - or Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, August1991 said: Trump has no chance of winning the critical counties in Georgia - or Michigan. Right right..... these "chances" - are they in the room with you right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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