War In Ukraine

[Contrarian]

On 2/5/2023 at 2:06 AM, Contrarian said:

I think America understands this war is much more than a regional skirmish Ukraine - Russia. It goes beyond that, to Beijing, to the Mullahs in Iran, to every authoritarian type of system around the world. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, help will be provided. There is also something that I read that there is an Ukrainian general ready to take Zelenskyy's place in case Zelenskyy becomes too soft on the war, however his trip to America showed that he is secure enough to leave the country without a coup is my take. In practical terms the US can not lower their guard and allow Russia to win this war, you can't be number 1 in the world while being nice all the time. As a conclusion, nobody will win or lose the war is my take, well I guess we'll know in a couple of months. 

---> More to this point: 

https://youtu.be/7ymou67DHBM

---

I mentioned these views before, scattered, but if I am to do a summary: 

• Ukrainians are bracing for a Russian offensive. 
• It is happening, in my opinion, they will go for Kyiv again. And it might happen shortly, as the 1 year anniversary of the invasion is coming up, also the Russians might try to do this now to not allow the Ukrainians to set up the new tanks coming in. 
• The Hostomel airport raid was a humiliation for Putin, early in the war.
• Everything he stood for as a secret police, to be humiliated by the CIA in such a fashion, don't think he can let it go that easy. 
• The attack on the airport "Antonov" of Hostomel, located north-west of the Ukrainian capital, had been anticipated by the US intelligence to the Kiev government. Thus, on the night of February 24, 2022, when the airborne armed forces arrived at the airport, they found the Kiev army waiting for them. 
• Shockingly, the man which helped deliver this message was a Ukrainian agent which would later be tragically executed by a different security intelligence of Ukraine due to "suspicion of collaborating with the Russians."
• His boss, denies these allegations. I read the interview with his boss, Kyrylo Budanov, which most likely will be Ukraine's new defence minister. He defended his agent. He held back to say more, most likely because he loves his country and an internal fight between security intelligence agencies in Ukraine would not help now. 
• The full story for the above is here: 
  https://repolitics.com/forums/topic/42438-secret-police-the-people-with-the-lists/?do=findComment&comment=1557071
• My take is that the Ukrainians will hold, leading to a frozen conflict area however is no denying that the war has entered a dangerous phase. The pot is unpredictable, anything can happen, but will stick with the above scenario as my estimation for now. 
• Other news: Zelenskyy is in the United Kingdom today meeting with the PM and The King. Denmark, Germany, Netherlands offered financial support to purchase 100 Leopard tanks. Unclear of the timeline. 

Edited February 8 by Contrarian

[Moonbox]

I don't think they will go for Kiev again.  They don't have the equipment, manpower or leadership to run multiple offensives at the same time.  They can barely maintain a creeping attritional war on one axis.  The Russians can barely do anything without Ukraine knowing about it in advance. 

Edited February 8 by Moonbox

[Infidel Dog]

Conflicting stories for either side. This Ukrainian guy says they'll be counter-attacking into Crimea by Summer.

Meanwhile we still wait to see if anything meaningful will happen from this supposed 500,000 new troop winter surge from Russia. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Contrarian]

At this point time will only tell.

It also depends if their first major offensive will be successful and how fast those tanks, personnel can be trained.

Zelenzkyy's visit was a surprise in the UK according to the media and it means the urgency is increasing. The motive it seems was also the Fighter Jets however UK may send fighter jets to Ukraine over ‘long-term’ after Zelenskyy plea. Will that be enough time? Russia has 500.000, well I don't believe this number, the Ukrainians might use it to get more weapons for defence, but they have personnel. 

I spent some time listening yesterday to an European general podcast, pro-NATO, which he was saying, is just a theory that a major offensive is expected within 10 days. 

If the Russians offensive in the East is successful will they move towards Kyiv? or just start aiming towards a Frozen Conflict. Defence only of that region?

If the Russian offensive in the East is a failure, oh, that will be catastrophic for Putin as he wants to appeal to the 1 year anniversary too, the general said. A second failure might even affect him politically at home. 

Edited February 8 by Contrarian

[Infidel Dog]

Oh, oops. 

I said, "This Ukrainian guy says they'll be counter-attacking into Crimea by Summer," but I forgot to show you who "this guy" was.

This guy:

 

Sometimes he's right. Sometimes he's wrong.

Edited February 8 by Infidel Dog

[Moonbox]

I think the offensive, as you say, is aiming to capture as much of the Donbas as possible.  Toppling Ukraine and Kiev altogether doesn't appear realistic, and Putin has apparently been telling foreign guests he expects Russia to be fighting this war for the next 2-3 years.  That points to his desire for a frozen conflict, but nobody can say for sure.  

Beyond that I don't see how the situation improves from him.  He faceplanted with the initial invasion and wasted the cream of his military and equipment.  By any measurement possible, the Russian military is less capable than it was last February, while Ukraine's continues to be supplied with a gradually escalating amount and quality of western equipment.  

[Contrarian]

You are very optimistic as to the speed when the equipment will become active. Also, the main doctrine of that military was to throw bodies on the warzone. They don't care how many they lose is my view. 

I will be watching this date, to see if the good local general in my own land is worth listening to. 

So yesterday was February 7th, so if in +10 days if there is no activity he will not be listened as often in the future. 

There's also something else here, which I can see how the Kyiv scenario might not look realistic now that we are having a discussion:

---> To manage a territory which can turn into an insurgency is very costly. The land between the East to Kyiv is very hostile. Even Ukrainian grandmothers will fight you. 

---> I think at the end of the day, his main goal which was foiled by the CIA and the Ukrainian army was to subordinate Ukrainian society via his own Ukrainian government to report to the Kremlin the way it was before. The blitz attack however, failed. Is possible parrots around him, being afraid of him, lied about the intelligence and how easy of an operation will be. 

Edited February 8 by Contrarian

[Infidel Dog]

The Russians have too many coming problems in the South to attack Kiev.

 

[Moonbox]

2 hours ago, Contrarian said:

You are very optimistic as to the speed when the equipment will become active. Also, the main doctrine of that military was to throw bodies on the warzone. They don't care how many they lose is my view. 

However slowly western equipment is coming in, it's still faster than what's happening for Russia, whose military industrial complex was struggling before sanctions kicked in.  

As for wasting lives, Putin and his regime don't care, but I imagine the Russian soldiers dying and their families probably do.  Both Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union collapsed in large part due to costly and ill-advised wars their people didn't support.  This isn't an existential war like WW2 was, and despite Kremlin propaganda efforts, you can only keep your people fooled for so long.   

[athos]

10 hours ago, Moonbox said:

However slowly western equipment is coming in, it's still faster than what's happening for Russia, whose military industrial complex was struggling before sanctions kicked in.  

As for wasting lives, Putin and his regime don't care, but I imagine the Russian soldiers dying and their families probably do.  Both Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union collapsed in large part due to costly and ill-advised wars their people didn't support.  This isn't an existential war like WW2 was, and despite Kremlin propaganda efforts, you can only keep your people fooled for so long.   

 

Russia will crush NATO.
It will be the final end of the evil Anglo-Khazarian imperial mafia.

 

 

 

Edited February 9 by athos

[Contrarian]

9 hours ago, Moonbox said:

However slowly western equipment is coming in, it's still faster than what's happening for Russia, whose military industrial complex was struggling before sanctions kicked in.  

As for wasting lives, Putin and his regime don't care, but I imagine the Russian soldiers dying and their families probably do.  Both Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union collapsed in large part due to costly and ill-advised wars their people didn't support.  This isn't an existential war like WW2 was, and despite Kremlin propaganda efforts, you can only keep your people fooled for so long.   

The 10 day timeline is also confirmed by Foreign Policy. They also talk about the speed of the tanks becoming active for the Eastern Front.

Full report:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/

--> No mention of Kyiv, yes, I can see that in the article, I guess the race is to hold the advance of the Russians in the East, while training and arrival of new equipment happens. 

[Contrarian]

1 hour ago, athos said:

Russia will

puts up a Soviet flag, all my posts about communism on the last page just got their confirmation.

https://repolitics.com/forums/topic/41991-war-in-ukraine/?do=findComment&comment=1560846

https://repolitics.com/forums/topic/41991-war-in-ukraine/?do=findComment&comment=1560609

---> So I understand you talk to some angry Westerners about religion, nationalism, identity, but underneath tovarisch, you are a communist through and through which spends his time on forums trying to agitate the waters. 

--> Must be extremely frustrating, a few ones here ruined your little fun you had going. You had a whole operation going at the beginning of this thread, assisted by local populists, then physics happened.

Now you are known as a bot which posts propaganda in Australia and Canada.

Action - Reaction comrade. 

Update: Why did you change the video? what's the matter FSB / Wagner fan troll, you are afraid the Westerners will not like it if they see a communist flag? You are making mistakes. Focus. Amateur again. You need to sleep before you post, it helps the focus. 

Apparently, some of your allies in North Korea will have new women leadership, you see, your communism is adapting too: 

Edited February 9 by Contrarian

[Contrarian]

hahahahaha he got caught posting Soviet Patriot Songs, then he changed the video. 😄 

Tovarisch, how low the informational war has become for such an organisation which the KGB was at one time. Do hope you are just a fan, and not an employee, because as an employee would not even pay you minimum wage, sorry. It's ok, your soldier @Nationalist and other fans like him will come and find an explanation shortly. Maybe give you a like too. 😄

Listen up, nobody pays me to do what I do, post here, is pure hobby and attention to detail, comrade, you have no shame though. I would have thought by now, you would have created a double account and start fresh, a different angle. It's ok, you can do that, will spot you easily based on a few similarities in writing and we can debate with a second account too. 

Continue to post forward -> but if you don't want this show with me pointing out your low level propaganda, please, sleep and coffee. The second one, try gourmet, it helps focus with quality. 

Edited February 9 by Contrarian

[Moonbox]

8 hours ago, athos said:

 

Russia will crush NATO.
It will be the final end of the evil Anglo-Khazarian imperial mafia.

 

 

 

Russia can't even crush Ukraine.  

[sharkman]

So it looks like Starlink has had enough.  They are cutting off Ukraine military, stating that they never intended for their systems to be weaponized.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-to-limit-ukraines-military-use-of-starlink-satellite-business-11675894401?mod=djemalertNEWS

 

 

 

[Contrarian]

One of the things that I keep reading time and time again is this idea that the Russians will revolt against the KGB gang which is leading the Kremlin. 

The data is all over the place, with numbers from 200,000 - 4 million which left Russia already. But the idea remains, who will then revolt against Putin?

The sane people left the mob and are in the West trying to make a life with themselves. They won't be back to revolt in my view. 

Is the hope in the conscripts' families to start the revolt, @Moonbox ?

Edited February 11 by Contrarian

[Infidel Dog]

On 2/9/2023 at 7:29 AM, Moonbox said:

Russia can't even crush Ukraine.  

They've been making small gains launching these human wave attacks in this new winter offensive but there's reason to believe they're running out of manpower.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/07/its-possible-270000-russians-have-been-killed-or-wounded-in-ukraine/?sh=492317982eec

[Moonbox]

I don't think we're going to see a revolt anytime soon.  The elite and the educated in Russia know what's going on, but Russia is full of poor-as-dirt shmucks who believe everything their state media tells them.  They have no culture or tradition of freedom or self-rule, and have just bounced around from one oppressor to the next - the Tsardom, the Soviet Union, the oligarchs and now Putin.  They actually believe they're fighting NATO in Ukraine, and that Russia is bravely defending its territory against western imperialism.  

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/hmmrhed.gif

As far as the elites toppling Putin, he has a private army of something like 20,000 in Moscow, so I don't see that either. 

Until Ukraine becomes more of an embarrassment than it already is, I think Putin's safe.  

[sharkman]

17 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I don't think we're going to see a revolt anytime soon.  The elite and the educated in Russia know what's going on, but Russia is full of poor-as-dirt shmucks who believe everything their state media tells them.  They have no culture or tradition of freedom or self-rule, and have just bounced around from one oppressor to the next - the Tsardom, the Soviet Union, the oligarchs and now Putin.  They actually believe they're fighting NATO in Ukraine, and that Russia is bravely defending its territory against western imperialism.  

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/hmmrhed.gif

As far as the elites toppling Putin, he has a private army of something like 20,000 in Moscow, so I don't see that either. 

Until Ukraine becomes more of an embarrassment than it already is, I think Putin's safe.  

That’s so rich, that the average Russian believes everything that their state media tells them.  Because you’re one of the average schmucks that believe whatever you’re told by the Canadian media.  
 

And aren’t  NATO countries giving billions in aid and equipment to Ukraine?  But that doesn’t count as fighting NATO in a proxy war because the Canadian media said so…

Edited February 12 by sharkman

[Moonbox]

Just now, sharkman said:

That’s so rich, that the average Russian believes everything that their state media tells them.  Because you’re one of the average schmucks that believe whatever you’re told by the Canadian media.  

What's even richer is that you're one of the Canadian schmucks that believe what you're told by the Russian state media.  🤡

 

Just now, sharkman said:

And aren’t  NATO countries giving billions in aid and equipment to Ukraine?  But that doesn’t count because the Canadian media said so…

Doesn't count?  What on Earth are you talking about??

 

[herbie]

On 2/12/2023 at 7:52 AM, Moonbox said:

What's even richer is that you're one of the Canadian schmucks that believe what you're told by the Russian state media.

Even richer that he believes all media must be the same. The National Post, the Vancouver Sun are just like Pravda was... the CBC is only critical of Tory policies.

One of those ppl who'll look you straight in the eye and say that "those unions are only out to protect their jobs!" (well DUHH) as if there's something wrong with that.

[taxme]

On 2/4/2023 at 5:58 PM, Aristides said:

It's Russians killing Ukrainians on Ukrainian soil. No one in Russia has been attacked.

Putin invaded Ukraine for a good reason. The citizen's of the Donbass region, whom are mostly of Russian decent and background, were being treated like dirt by Zelensky. Plus there were other factors also. Like Zelensky having way too many bio weapons labs in Ukraine which Putin felt were a threat to Russia. Why did Ukraine have so many of those bio weapons labs anyway? Rumor has it that many of those labs were bombed by Putin. 

Interesting though as to why Zelensky never attacked Russia at all for Russia invading their soil. Zelensky probably new that Putin would bomb Ukraine to hell. But that is the story that I have read from alternative media. Aw well.

[taxme]

On 2/4/2023 at 11:06 PM, Contrarian said:

Let me give my opinions on what you wrote: 

a. Yes, I know what the Russian leadership calls itself today, but who is leading Russia? 2 former secret police members. One is Putin, former East Germany KGB watchman and Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Church, code name Mikhailov. So one person that served the communist secret police is leading the politics, the other the religious establishment. So, in my books 100 % they are communists. They just changed their clothes. An animal can change his coat but not his character.

b. Zelenskyy is not a fascist, he is an actor landed in a position bigger than him, his international politics are a disaster in my view, but for an Ukrainian nationalist that is waiting for years for some payback towards the Russians he is the best point of reference to use towards that goal. Is hard for you as a Canadian to understand the hatred there. If you had a neighbour that starved you, chased you, beat you, took your women, did not let you pray, you don't think that someone will wait every opportunity for payback? This is what the Russians did to the Ukrainians, even before communism during the Tsar's time. At one point the hatred was as such that the Ukrainians allied themselves briefly with Hitler. When Hitler was playing the same game as Stalin, Ukrainians turned their weapons against both sides. 

c. In my estimation there won't be any nukes used, worst case scenario will be a frozen conflict as in North Korea - South Korea after a few more months of battle in the East. I think America understands this war is much more than a regional skirmish Ukraine - Russia. It goes beyond that, to Beijing, to the Mullahs in Iran, to every authoritarian type of system around the world. As long as the Ukrainians want to fight, help will be provided. There is also something that I read that there is an Ukrainian general ready to take Zelenskyy's place in case Zelenskyy becomes too soft on the war, however his trip to America showed that he is secure enough to leave the country without a coup is my take. In practical terms the US can not lower their guard and allow Russia to win this war, you can't be number 1 in the world while being nice all the time. As a conclusion, nobody will win or lose the war is my take, well I guess we'll know in a couple of months. 

c. That depends where you read who wins the war. The Russian and Ukrainian intelligence have the same father: the KGB. I don't necessarily take everything the Ukrainians say face value but this war is a disaster for Russia. The Hostomel airport raid which was supposed to give them 1 week access to Kyiv was their failure due to the American intelligence that helped an invaded country defend its territory. The CIA warned the Ukrainian intelligence that this is where the Russians want to strike first. Reports are all over the internet about the meeting prior. They were right. I think you would agree if someone flies in your house, you would welcome intelligence from the Americans to kick those people out?  

d. In regards as to why your white brothers and sisters are fighting each other is easy. You have on display 2 major factors why human beings are killing each other: 

1. COMMUNISM (Russia being lead by 2 secret police members from the KGB, former communist militia). Yes, I know now, today they call themselves religious and nationalistic. 😂

2. RELIGION (I mentioned this several times but Russian Patriarch Kirill is not a priest, he was a communist police member) however he is using Religion as a vehicle to brainwash other small minded men like him to go to war by invading a sovereign country in 2023. This is not medieval times, is 2023. It does not matter for old communists members that now pose as Russian nationalists and religious folk. 😂 

---> I tend to agree with a Russian former soldier which flew to Georgia because he did not want to invade another country. He said: "The nationalists and heroes are us that left Russia, the traitors are the ones that stayed to fight a non-sense war."

You and I do not know for certain as to whether Putin is still a communist or not. Maybe Putin was never a communist at all. He just got a job with the KGB. Communism came to an end in Russia in the 90's. The Russian people have more freedom today than they ever had under communism. My opinion is that Putin is not a communist at all. Just my opinion.  

[taxme]

On 2/6/2023 at 8:34 AM, Moonbox said:

Where are you hearing that?  Off-shore propaganda farms?  

What part of the retreat from Kiev, Kharkiv or Kherson do you consider winning?  Soledar?  The 6 month attritional campaign to (maybe) take Bakhmut?  

The Americans (Europeans etc) know that they can float Ukraine's military with superior equipment to what Russia's dragging into the fight with second-hand surplus and economies of scale that dwarf Russia's.  

Seems the Ukrainians disagree.  Check Russia's GDP against NATO/EU/USA and tell us how they outproduce and outscale Ukraine.  The weapons supplies are only getting started.  Tanks and AFV's were unthinkable a year ago.  Now they're heading to Ukraine.  While NATO's creeping weapon supply continues, Putin impotently bluffs with the same threats about escalation on which he cannot follow through.  

Keep on dreaming, comrade. If Ukraine is winning the war then why does NATO, US and the EU always still have to keep supplying Ukraine with more tanks and other war weapons of destruction all the time if they are kicking Russia's ass? 

Sad to say that you listen way too much to the western media. And if anyone has the smarts, they should know by now that the western MSM like to lie and spread bull chit all the time. But believe what you want to believe and so will I.  

 

[Contrarian]

2 hours ago, taxme said:

You and I do not know for certain as to whether Putin is still a communist or not. 

• I think somebody that knocks at the door of the KGB at the age of 17 clearly had inclinations toward it. 
  ---> While the world is engaged in liberating processes, in Leningrad a teenager, who by his short stature seems younger than his seventeen years, knocks on the door of the KGB. The young man, who devours the works of Marx, Engels and Lenin, manages to meet with an official and asks to be allowed to join the ranks of the secret police. The official recommends that he finishes his studies first. The teenager who from then on applied to join the KGB every year was called Vladimir Putin.
• Normally, the secret police comes to you, that's how the communist secret police used to recruit. That, and you had to be a follower. Putin went to them and took a shortcut. 😄
• He called the destruction of the Soviet Union a great tragedy while party members were ordering the killing and engaged in intellectual suppression in all the former Soviet space. 
• Even if he is not a communist. Do you want me to respect people that got a job with the KGB? Not now, not never. not in my books. 
• Personally, I think these real FSB/Wagner bots/fans that post on these forums and Australian one it seems are counting on some of you to not know the history in that area. Obviously, you are someone that is upset with his country and social changes but is hard for you to see the magnitude of what you are saying because you lived your entire life here in comfort. Your main issue was the Covid-19 mask while in that system, others were not allowed to say a word of dissent or one would disappear or be sent to work in the other side of the country on a meaningless job. 
• You call the liberals here communists. Why? No such thing in my view, the government will change here next term. Ontario already has voted conservative. 
• That's the difference between the West and systems like Putin, term limits. As soon as you give someone the power without term limits, I don't care if it's Buddha, eventually, they will go insane, as clearly is happening now. 
• About the media. Of course, they lie, everyone lies, and politicians lie, all in the chase to maintain power.
• There is some phenomenona happening here where people think that if one quotes mainstream media, it means one believes everything the mainstream media says. Is just data to filter in my view. 
• As a conclusion, I don't believe in shepherd politicians, especially the ones that are former secret police, I like voting for change in politics, and no man is made to have full power. History showed us gruesome examples in the long term. The shepherd (in this case Putin, or you can replace his name with 1 person leader) always tries to persuade the sheep that their interests and his own are the same.

Edited February 15 by Contrarian
corrected the age, Putin knocked on the door of the KGB at the age of 17