Energy Independence

[Aristides]

9 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

The only issue I'd have with that is I do not want to sell squat to China. Let them burn their coal.

We don't need to sell to China, India is doubling its refining capacity over the next few years. Russia will now become China's biggest supplier.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Aristides

[Michael Hardner]

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/billionaire-russian-oligarch-igor-makarov-takes-major-stake-in-calgary-natural-gas-producer-spartan-delta

Oligarchs are present in Canada's energy industry too.  'Independence' is a difficult term.

[Nationalist]

35 minutes ago, Aristides said:

We don't need to sell to China, India is doubling its refining capacity over the next few years. Russia will now become China's biggest supplier.

Good! Knowing those 2, it won't take more than a decade for them to start screwing each other over. And with India in the middle of them, the entire process should be about as effective as a blind archer.

[West]

3 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/billionaire-russian-oligarch-igor-makarov-takes-major-stake-in-calgary-natural-gas-producer-spartan-delta

Oligarchs are present in Canada's energy industry too.  'Independence' is a difficult term.

Please tell me your perspective on this. What should Canada do with its natural resources ie oil and gas?

[Michael Hardner]

1 minute ago, West said:

Please tell me your perspective on this. What should Canada do with its natural resources ie oil and gas?

Actually, West, I don't really know a lot about it.  I do feel that there tends to be too much identification with certain industries in Canada.  "We" isn't the owners of our industries, lest "we" become Chinese, Russian and American.

I support all "Canadian" industry, of course, independent of ownership but we have to make these vehicles work for us.  I support pipelines, and also the effort to move on from fossil fuels in the long term.

I'm mostly here to listen, but I will send out dispatches if I have helpful information  

 

[Nationalist]

7 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Actually, West, I don't really know a lot about it.  I do feel that there tends to be too much identification with certain industries in Canada.  "We" isn't the owners of our industries, lest "we" become Chinese, Russian and American.

I support all "Canadian" industry, of course, independent of ownership but we have to make these vehicles work for us.  I support pipelines, and also the effort to move on from fossil fuels in the long term.

I'm mostly here to listen, but I will send out dispatches if I have helpful information  

 

Status Quo...what a surprise...

[Michael Hardner]

8 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Status Quo...what a surprise...

You're not surprised I support pipelines ?  Ok ...

[Nationalist]

6 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

You're not surprised I support pipelines ?  Ok ...

Not really. But I was saying Status Quo is your "thing".

Guess that slipped your view?

[Michael Hardner]

3 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Not really. But I was saying Status Quo is your "thing".

Guess that slipped your view?

No I read that, but pipelines are kind of a divisive issue regardless. I can give you non status quo stuff too, on the right topic

[Army Guy]

2 hours ago, Nexii said:

We are a net exporter of oil. The only way we aren't independent is that we consume slightly more oil (2.2bb/d) than we can refine (2.0bb/d). The USA refines a lot of Canadian oil for us.

I get the sentiment, we should be self-sufficient for other essentials. But oil/gas isn't really one of them

 

What you mean is we sell our bitumen to the US at much reduced costs, and they sell us back refined products at a much higher price, there are no refineries in Canada right now capable of refining bitumen, Alberta is suppose to build one but I'm not sure if it is complete. So all those profits are going state side right now.  

[Nationalist]

Just now, Michael Hardner said:

No I read that, but pipelines are kind of a divisive issue regardless. I can give you non status quo stuff too, on the right topic

I know I'm gonna hate myself for this but...

OK tell me...do you think Canada should build a refinery in the Atlantic Provinces?

Should Canada rely on the Americans for refining?

Does it make sense that Canada should be importing fossil fuels at all?

[West]

11 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I

OK tell me...do you think Canada should build a refinery in the Atlantic Provinces?

Should Canada rely on the Americans for refining?

 

No. In the 1970s it would've made sense and Canada would've been a global superpower. Unfortunately that ship has sailed. 

Yes. With the caveat they review the royalty structure (probably won't happen). 

Truth is Canada has bungled their energy policy for several decades. 

[Nexii]

12 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

 

What you mean is we sell our bitumen to the US at much reduced costs, and they sell us back refined products at a much higher price, there are no refineries in Canada right now capable of refining bitumen, Alberta is suppose to build one but I'm not sure if it is complete. So all those profits are going state side right now.  

Yes but building new refineries is not cheap or quick either. 10 billion or so for a medium sized refinery like Sturgeon these days and it took 10 years to complete. Again if oil prices stay high I could see us pushing more refining capacity. But it's a gamble. If oil crashes we take a huge loss due to the high cost just to get bitumen out of the ground.

[Michael Hardner]

23 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

1. OK tell me...do you think Canada should build a refinery in the Atlantic Provinces?

2. Should Canada rely on the Americans for refining?

3. Does it make sense that Canada should be importing fossil fuels at all?

1. 2. No idea.  If the industry hasn't done it yet, it makes me wonder if it makes business sense.  From what I have read it doesn't but who knows.
3. On the surface, no, but open markets are the reality and relying "on the Americans" seems to ignore how much "the Americans" already own our energy industry.  

[Nationalist]

25 minutes ago, West said:

No. In the 1970s it would've made sense and Canada would've been a global superpower. Unfortunately that ship has sailed. 

Yes. With the caveat they review the royalty structure (probably won't happen). 

Truth is Canada has bungled their energy policy for several decades. 

Yes we have. I thought PetroCanada could have addressed the problems but...it was bungled too.

We really do need to re-negotiate the refining deals with the Yankees. I know they actually own most of our oil and gas business but, "I'm sorry. My nation first. Then we'll talk about what we can pipe down to Houston for ya. I'm sure y'all understand?" If they wanna divest...let 'em. It's a big planet with lots of investors.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Nationalist

[Moonbox]

41 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

What you mean is we sell our bitumen to the US at much reduced costs, and they sell us back refined products at a much higher price, there are no refineries in Canada right now capable of refining bitumen, Alberta is suppose to build one but I'm not sure if it is complete. So all those profits are going state side right now.  

Alberta refining its own oil is coming like 30 years too late.  By the time they recovered the massive initial capital outlays for constructing all the infrastructure for it, we'll have moved on from oil as a primary source of energy.   

[Army Guy]

5 hours ago, Nexii said:

Yes but building new refineries is not cheap or quick either. 10 billion or so for a medium sized refinery like Sturgeon these days and it took 10 years to complete. Again if oil prices stay high I could see us pushing more refining capacity. But it's a gamble. If oil crashes we take a huge loss due to the high cost just to get bitumen out of the ground.

Very true refineries take a long time to build, and they are very expensive, BC just got funding for a 40 bil LNG plant so it is not like we can't do it, just there has to be a will to do it...  other than turning this bitumen into  gas/ diesel, it can also be used lubricants,  and entire load of other products that will be needed regardless if fossil fuels are replaced.

even if oil prices drop, it would still be cheaper to refine here, and ship across the country and keep these profits here in Canada along with those new jobs....

Experts say that fossil fuels may be with us for 20 to 30 years. And if Canada is not ready yet ,wait until BC starts paying 2 dollars a liter for gas and 2.30 for diesel and thats not far off todays prices, and we do not know where fuel prices are going after all of this is over. 

[Army Guy]

5 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Alberta refining its own oil is coming like 30 years too late.  By the time they recovered the massive initial capital outlays for constructing all the infrastructure for it, we'll have moved on from oil as a primary source of energy.   

your right, but that does not mean fossil fuels are out the door anytime soon, some are saying atleast 20 to 30 years before we find another source of energy...

[Moonbox]

Probably true but like I said, building refinery complexes to scale, along with all the infrastructure to go along with it, is not an initial investment you recover in 5-10 years.  By the time they even broke even on the project, there probably wouldn't be enough oil demand anymore to run a worthy profit.  

[Zeitgeist]

8 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Probably true but like I said, building refinery complexes to scale, along with all the infrastructure to go along with it, is not an initial investment you recover in 5-10 years.  By the time they even broke even on the project, there probably wouldn't be enough oil demand anymore to run a worthy profit.  

It’s still worth having the refining capacity domestically for energy security purposes.  However, we have to be able to get the oil to the refineries.  If Quebec blocks the transmission of oil through that province, as they have with Energy East, then we would probably have to build the refineries in Ontario and pipe it in from Alberta.  It works well though because about 40% of Canadians live in Ontario and refined fuel can be delivered by train and truck east of Ontario.  

[Nefarious Banana]

18 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

No I read that, but pipelines are kind of a divisive issue regardless. I can give you non status quo stuff too, on the right topic

Don't bother yourself . . . . . or us either.

Let's just keep purchasing foreign oil and sit on our reserves.

[Zeitgeist]

Yup.  You think Russia and China are going to stop building pipelines because “climate change”?  Lol.  Our government would rather cripple our economy through cutting energy supply, adding carbon taxes, and maintaining unscientific vaccine mandates that throw truck drivers out of work to unnecessarily raise the cost of goods and their delivery.  So stupid.  Oh and if anyone complains about it, try to impose martial law to throw political opponents in jail and seize their bank accounts. China and Russia are laughing at the woke green idiots and selling more energy to the world than ever.

Keep asking Russia and the Saudis to pump more oil, Joe. They’re loving it. Don’t think most Ukrainians agree.  

Edited February 25, 2022 by Zeitgeist

[West]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

Yup.  You think Russia and China are going to stop building pipelines because “climate change”?  Lol.  Our government would rather cripple our economy through cutting energy supply, adding carbon taxes, and maintaining unscientific vaccine mandates that throw truck drivers out of work to unnecessarily raise the cost of goods and their delivery.  So stupid.  Oh and if anyone complains about it, try to impose martial law to throw political opponents in jail and seize their bank accounts. China and Russia are laughing at the woke green idiots and selling more energy to the world than ever.

Keep asking Russia and the Saudis to pump more oil, Joe. They’re loving it. Don’t think most Ukrainians agree.  

The energy policy is political. Easy way for politicians to accept foreign bribes. 

Why you won't see Biden do anything about Ukraine.. his son is in deep with Russian oligarchs

[Moonbox]

4 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

It’s still worth having the refining capacity domestically for energy security purposes.

but it isn't really, not unless you are worried that US suppliers will cut us of from refined products.  I think it's a damn shame that Pierre Trudeau so horribly botched Canada's energy strategy decades ago, and how nobody did much meaningful about it since, but that train left a long time ago. 

The dream of Canada building refineries in Alberta, Ontario or BC or whatever is certainly appealing, but it's not that simple.  You can't just sort of "build the refinery".  To compete with importing from the US would require massive economies of scale, enormous infrastructure investments (refinery processes, terminals, pipelines) and would likely take decades to recoup the capital outlay.  All of this would be happening in an environment where economies are trying to move away from oil and when Canadian oil is already expensive to harvest in the first place.   

If we assume that oil demand and reliance declines over the next 20-30 (EVs, renewable energy etc), then this is a losing bet that nobody would want to make.  

[eyeball]

24 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

but it isn't really, not unless you are worried that US suppliers will cut us of from refined products.  I think it's a damn shame that Pierre Trudeau so horribly botched Canada's energy strategy decades ago, and how nobody did much meaningful about it since, but that train left a long time ago.

There were other more shameful things being botched up a long time ago, still well within living memory however, that have also left their mark on the present and it's conundrums.  We didn't follow the world and join with our allies in their twisted machinations that have resulted in much of the present geopolitical/energy quagmire the world is in.  We tried to offer a different path with our emphasis on being peacekeepers instead of being warmongers. We didn't court dictators and warlords and tried our best to stay on the right side of history. And that's what we should keep doing - mind you with fewer of the twisted machinations we manage to inflict on ourselves domestically.

As for Canada's oil, you might recall I've suggested we should have hired Norway to manage our energy strategy.  Norway still has the largest sovereign wealth fund on the  planet that it amassed from it's own far more limited oil reserves. That said I'd be wary of Norwegian management ethics if BC's fish farm industry is anything to go by. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by eyeball