NAFTA negotiations.

[bush_cheney2004]

10 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

....Canada and the U.S.'s trade relationship serves both countries well in equal numbers.  To mess with that is a mistake.  Nevertheless, Trump is seeking a reorganization of that order in such a way that the U.S. will attain greater advantage.  They can try this on, but bad treatment in trade policy such as tariffs will always be countered in equal measure by Canada.  There may be some hardship if we go to auto tariffs and counter-tariffs, but we will do that if necessary, because it's better to live parched than to be poisoned to death.  Simply, Canada will adjust if need be.

 

Regardless of present trade levels, President Trump is right to challenge Canada (and Mexico) for existing tariffs, non-tariff barriers, transshipments, dumping, and IP theft.

Even under existing NAFTA trade, Canada has continued to lose more share of North America auto production because of previous internal and external factors having absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump.

[bush_cheney2004]

Mexico figured it out early....Canada hasn't figured it out yet:

 

Quote

Marko Papic agrees. “Even a bad NAFTA deal would be better than no deal,” says the chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, which provides businesses with investment advice.

Why would a lousy, rotten, crappy deal be better than no deal at all? Because Canadian businesses simply must have duty-free access to the U.S. market. “An astounding 28 per cent of Canada’s GDP is sourced through exports to the U.S.,” Mr. Papic points out.

 

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe best summed up the paradox facing Canadian negotiators. “We cannot move forward with a bad deal," he said last week. "I’m not certain we can move forward with no deal either.”

... But “a no-deal scenario is bad, very bad," he adds, because the Canadian economy is so dependent on access to the U.S. market.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-a-bad-nafta-deal-canada-should-take-it-and-run/

 

[taxme]

14 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Mexico figured it out early....Canada hasn't figured it out yet:

 

 

All we ever hear from our ridiculous politicians is Canada is great for multiculturalism and diversity, gender equity and trying to implement socialism as quickly as possible. That is what Canada has become well known for. Unemployment and welfare are tops on their list for trying to make Canada un great. Our politicians can never figure out anything except of course how to go about destroying a once great WASP/European nation. Our Canadian peso says it all. 

[Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, taxme said:

All we ever hear from our ridiculous politicians is Canada is great for multiculturalism and diversity, gender equity and trying to implement socialism as quickly as possible. That is what Canada has become well known for. Unemployment and welfare are tops on their list for trying to make Canada un great. Our politicians can never figure out anything except of course how to go about destroying a once great WASP/European nation. Our Canadian peso says it all. 

This is just so far off the mark of how most Canadians feel about Canada that it's hard to imagine your remarks coming from a Canadian.  

18 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Regardless of present trade levels, President Trump is right to challenge Canada (and Mexico) for existing tariffs, non-tariff barriers, transshipments, dumping, and IP theft.

Even under existing NAFTA trade, Canada has continued to lose more share of North America auto production because of previous internal and external factors having absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump.

If you can see Canadian production declining at the same rate as U.S. production, why target Canada with tariffs or a lopsided NAFTA?  It isn't that Canada doesn't get it, it's that we're trying to set policy that will actually level the playing field, such as implementing a higher Mexican minimum wage in the auto sector.  This policy wasn't concocted in the U.S. State Department.  These ideas have been floated in Canada and other countries for years and are quite progressive.  The trade war is dangerous and may not end well for all trading partners.   

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

If you can see Canadian production declining at the same rate as U.S. production, why target Canada with tariffs or a lopsided NAFTA?  It isn't that Canada doesn't get it, it's that we're trying to set policy that will actually level the playing field, such as implementing a higher Mexican minimum wage in the auto sector.  This policy wasn't concocted in the U.S. State Department.  These ideas have been floated in Canada and other countries for years and are quite progressive.  The trade war is dangerous and may not end well for all trading partners.   

 

But it was not Canada that got Mexico to make such concessions...it was the United States.  Country of origin content changes too...pressure from Trump's team.

Canada is still highest cost automotive producer...should lose even more market share as it has in the past, regardless of Trump.

[Zeitgeist]

11 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

But it was not Canada that got Mexico to make such concessions...it was the United States.  Country of origin content changes too...pressure from Trump's team.

Canada is still highest cost automotive producer...should lose even more market share as it has in the past, regardless of Trump.

Well I think some of Trump's tactics are backfiring, as Canada may walk away from a NAFTA deal and costs are going up for a number of Chinese made products at Walmart and other low cost retailers.  Canada is not the highest cost auto producer, because what we add in cost for wages is reduced by lower health benefit costs to companies as well as the lower Canadian dollar.  Our plants are also among the most productive.  Our workers produce more per hour.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/walmart-will-soon-hike-prices-due-to-tariffs-ex-walmart-us-ceo.html

[bush_cheney2004]

24 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Well I think some of Trump's tactics are backfiring, as Canada may walk away from a NAFTA deal and costs are going up for a number of Chinese made products at Walmart and other low cost retailers.  Canada is not the highest cost auto producer, because what we add in cost for wages is reduced by lower health benefit costs to companies as well as the lower Canadian dollar.  Our plants are also among the most productive.  Our workers produce more per hour. 

 

Obviously several auto manufacturers (none are Canadian owned) disagree...Ontario has lost a significant share of North American production....before Trump ever threatened the NAFTA status quo.

Walmart will survive either way.    There is no Canadian owned equivalent in Mexico or the United States.

[Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Obviously several auto manufacturers (none are Canadian owned) disagree...Ontario has lost a significant share of North American production....before Trump ever threatened the NAFTA status quo.

Walmart will survive either way.    There is no Canadian owned equivalent in Mexico or the United States.

Well we could talk about Zellers and other low cost Canadian retailers, but the big ones right now are dollar stores.  Ever heard of Dollarama?  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarama

 

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Well we could talk about Zellers and other low cost Canadian retailers, but the big ones right now are dollar stores.  Ever heard of Dollarama?  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollarama

 

 

Nope...never heard of Dollarama...but there are many, many so called "dollar stores" in the retail sector selling crap from China.  

I suspect that Walmart has larger sales volume in Canada, and certainly in the United States.

[Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Nope...never heard of Dollarama...but there are many, many so called "dollar stores" in the retail sector selling crap from China.  

I suspect that Walmart has larger sales volume in Canada, and certainly in the United States.

The point is that costs are going up at U.S. retailers that sell goods from China, hurting consumers and U.S. businesses.  Canadian businesses and consumers aren't impacted.

Edited September 22, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

The point is that costs are going up at U.S. retailers that sell goods from China, hurting consumers and U.S. businesses.  Canadian businesses aren't impacted.

 

Don't care....that is the expected result of forcing the issue on trade balances, and spurring growth in U.S. manufacturing.

Canadian businesses are not my concern, unless they are dumping, stealing IP, or transshipping product into the USA.

Edited September 22, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Don't care....that is the expected result of forcing the issue on trade balances, and spurring growth in U.S. manufacturing.

Canadian businesses are not my concern, unless they are dumping, stealing IP, or transshipping product into the USA.

Well you should be concerned for U.S. businesses because consumers will have less money in their pockets to patronize U.S. businesses, and U.S. businesses' profits will be squeezed as they try not to pass on the higher costs to consumers due to tariffs on the products they sell.  Consumers will feel poorer.  Also, the counter-tariffs will hit U.S. exports no less than the tariffs launched by the U.S. are impacting exporters into the U.S..  

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

Well you should be concerned for U.S. businesses because consumers will have less money in their pockets to patronize U.S. businesses, and U.S. businesses' profits will be squeezed as they try not to pass on the higher costs to consumers due to tariffs on the products they sell.  Consumers will feel poorer.  Also, the counter-tariffs will hit U.S. exports no less than the tariffs launched by the U.S. are impacting exporters into the U.S..  

 

Again...don't care...the short term strategy and pain is worth it.

U.S. consumers are feeling very good right now...better than in Canada.

More Canadians still cross the border to shop in the U.S. than Americans going north.

 

[Zeitgeist]

24 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Again...don't care...the short term strategy and pain is worth it.

U.S. consumers are feeling very good right now...better than in Canada.

More Canadians still cross the border to shop in the U.S. than Americans going north.

 

I'm not surprised.  Your prez implemented major tax cuts.  We've been down that road before in Ontario under Harris.  You haven't felt the downside yet of an empty Treasury, let alone the impact of the counter-tariffs.

And on cross-border shopping:

Vehicle traffic into U.S. trending downward

Tourism official says some Canadians are "voting with their wallets"

174

Aug 1, 2018 2:55 PM by: Gary Rinne

The Pigeon River border crossing into Canada (tbnewswatch.com)

THUNDER BAY — In a resumption of a trend that was reported last winter, the volume of U.S.-bound traffic across the international border at Pigeon River fell significantly in May, and dropped even more sharply in June.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows that, compared with May 2017, there was a 13 per cent decline in the number of automobiles entering from Ontario in May of this year, followed by a 21 per cent falloff in June compared with June 2017.

Southbound automobile traffic also dropped 23 per cent year-to-year in February, and 21 per cent in January.

There was an interruption in the downward trend only in March and April, when the year-to-year traffic count increased by 13 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

Paul Pepe, the City of Thunder Bay's tourism manager, is not surprised to hear the statistics, given the unfavourable exchange rate for the Canadian dollar.

 

"Definitely, that would be down. That's something that we've known for a couple of years now," Pepe said in an interview with Tbnewswatch.

"That decline in cross-border shopping and people going across the border to pick up parcels is a big, big part of that decline."

But Pepe believes the imbalance between the value of the loonie and the U.S. dollar is not the only factor affecting Canadian travel to the U.S. more recently.

Some people, he said, "Are voting politically, with their wallets, to stay close to home...some of that's the tariff talk and the trade talk."

 

Edited September 22, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

I'm not surprised.  Your prez implemented major tax cuts.  We've been down that road before in Ontario under Harris.  You haven't felt the downside yet.

 

Yes we have....Obama and Congress already ran up huge deficits (keeping Bush era tax cuts), which is part of the post-recession positive trend.

Americans have more confidence in their present economy than Canadians do for theirs.

 

[Zeitgeist]

10 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Yes we have....Obama and Congress already ran up huge deficits (keeping Bush era tax cuts), which is part of the post-recession positive trend.

Americans have more confidence in their present economy than Canadians do for theirs.

 

Canada's economy has been very strong for a long time.  I find it funny that you ignored your biggest economic meltdown since the Great Depression in 2008, after W's massive tax cuts.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada's economy has been very strong for a long time.  I find it funny that you ignored your biggest economic meltdown since the Great Depression in 2008, after W's massive tax cuts.

 

I didn't ignore it....that's what "post-recession" means.

I can provide many more references for U.S. consumer confidence....and for a more "gloomier" Canada:

[Zeitgeist]

Consumer confidence and mood waxes and wanes often within the same year, as your graph shows.  I think there's a lot of circumspection right now in the world.  Canadians have endured hardships and enjoyed successes with similar tenacity.  

Edited September 22, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

Consumer confidence and mood waxes and wanes often within the same year, as your graph shows.  I think there's a lot of circumspection right now in the world.  Canadians have endured hardships and enjoyed successes with similar tenacity.  

 

Perhaps, but Canadian consumers are far more concerned about NAFTA than American consumers...as well they should be.   Canada's economy is far more dependent on the U.S. export trade.    American labour benchmarks are at historical levels.

If Canada leaves NAFTA....it is not as big a deal...not a daily headline on U.S. network news feeds as in Canada.

[Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Perhaps, but Canadian consumers are far more concerned about NAFTA than American consumers...as well they should be.   Canada's economy is far more dependent on the U.S. export trade.    American labour benchmarks are at historical levels.

If Canada leaves NAFTA....it is not as big a deal...not a daily headline on U.S. network news feeds as in Canada.

That's why I don't think it should be a big deal if we walk away from NAFTA.  It shouldn't draw much ire from the U.S.  They're too self-absorbed.  Canada will be able to reorient trade away from the U.S. in new free trade relationships with other countries.  The U.S. will see a lot of impact from counter-tariffs from multiple countries.  At least we only have to worry about the U.S.  It's dumb because both Canada and the U.S. do a lot of good business together, are beside each other, have similar regulations, and maintain a balanced trade relationship, but if the U.S. tries to remove that balance, Canada will meet its economic needs by expanding trade elsewhere.  There is no choice unless a fair trade agreement is hammered out.

[bush_cheney2004]

48 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

... It's dumb because both Canada and the U.S. do a lot of good business together, are beside each other, have similar regulations, and maintain a balanced trade relationship, but if the U.S. tries to remove that balance, Canada will meet its economic needs by expanding trade elsewhere.  There is no choice unless a fair trade agreement is hammered out.

 

Actually, it's "dumb" that Canada didn't do this long ago, seeking more trade diversification decades ago.

U.S. export trade is already far more diversified than Canada's....even with NAFTA.

Canada (and Mexico) are at crazy high levels for U.S. export market and FDI dependence...and then along comes a Trump.

Edited September 22, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

I agree that we're too dependent on exports to the U.S., though Canada is the biggest export market for the U.S.

[Queenmandy85]

The US is demanding extraordinary concessions such as the end of the independent dispute settling protocal, which would allow the US to cheat with impunity. Ending supply management on dairy would allow the US to flood Canada with dairy products destroying Canada's dairy industry. As soon as we no longer have a domestic dairy industry, the US could jack up prices many-fold.

What concessions of the same magnitude is the US prepared to make?

[Zeitgeist]

51 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

The US is demanding extraordinary concessions such as the end of the independent dispute settling protocal, which would allow the US to cheat with impunity. Ending supply management on dairy would allow the US to flood Canada with dairy products destroying Canada's dairy industry. As soon as we no longer have a domestic dairy industry, the US could jack up prices many-fold.

What concessions of the same magnitude is the US prepared to make?

Exactly.  Canada needs to come to the table with equally radical demands in Canada's favour.  The U.S. wouldn't sign on to such concessions and nor should we.  I think we're going to see the current NAFTA get cancelled, which gives us six months.  At that point we're into low but wide ranging tariffs under WTO most favoured country status.  It's a hit to both countries, but not insurmountable.  Auto tariffs and counter-tariffs would hurt both countries, particularly auto-making jurisdictions, but companies, workers, and auto buyers would be hit too hard for such measures to last unless the old Big Three in North America, and the North American production of foreign auto makers either off-shored all of their production or strictly produced autos within national borders for national markets:  The cars produced in the U.S. are sold to U.S. customers (Canadians won't buy them, nor will most other countries, as they're too expensive with tariffs).  Cars produced in Canada are sold to Canadians and non-U.S. low or no tariff foreign markets, as Canada is maintaining and expanding free trade.  Mexico continues to try to expand auto exports to the U.S. and Canada and maintains some cost advantage. 

What's disappointing for consumers is that they get less choice as auto companies won't be able to have multiple plants in different countries making the same vehicles.  It's too expensive.  Instead, consumers will buy from the smaller variety of tariff-free cars produced inside national borders.  This represents a consumer market decline.  So that's probably where we all land if we don't do a NAFTA agreement and Trump imposes auto tariffs.  The alternative is that we hammer out a new NAFTA, but it's worth waiting for a fair version rather than signing a bad one.  If we can't sign a fair agreement, there won't be a new NAFTA.

Edited September 22, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

58 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I agree that we're too dependent on exports to the U.S., though Canada is the biggest export market for the U.S.

 

Not by much... and there are many more.   Canada is only about 18%...with Mexico close behind.

Methinks Canada has an exaggerated view of its importance in this regard.

Unlike Canada, the USA is not an export driven economy.