msj Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 The thing about forecasting is that they are just empty words. There are no consequences for being right or wrong, especially when one is anonymous. I can predict many things and get some right and some wrong. It is likely chance that some are right while others are wrong so what's the point? If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
Hal 9000 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) They could get that high with a carbon tax of, say, 25 cents per litre and oil prices at around $125 (Brent). Yes, possible. One thing Trudeau does control and the other he doesn't control. No matter how much oil drops, and no matter how much our dollar drops, the feds will make sure they get their money - they simply have to, they've budgeted a certain amount of revenue from gas sales. Edited November 18, 2015 by Hal 9000 The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so. - Ronald Reagan I have said that the Western world is just as violent as the Islamic world - Dialamah Europe seems to excel at fooling people to immigrate there from the ME only to chew them up and spit them back. - Eyeball Unfortunately our policies have contributed to retarding and limiting their (Muslim's) society's natural progression towards the same enlightened state we take for granted. - Eyeball
msj Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 Well, with the dollar dropping makes gas more expensive for CDN consumers since Brent/WTI is priced in USD. So if the dollar goes down one would expect gas to remain level or go up (depending on if the price of oil goes down which, in turn, influences the CDN $). OTOH, to the extent that the price of oil goes up then this may lead to the dollar appreciating against the USD which could lead to prices going up/down/stable depending on the relationships between the price of oil and the value of the dollar. Once again, Trudeau has little control over these markets and certainly has not done anything in the past few weeks to alter the market in any meaningful way. Hell, even Harper, who was PM for nearly 10 years had little power over these markets and certainly does not deserve blame for the wretched CDN $ nor for the price of oil. If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
msj Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 No matter how much oil drops, and no matter how much our dollar drops, the feds will make sure they get their money - they simply have to, they've budgeted a certain amount of revenue from gas sales. You do realize that one benefit from the falling dollar is that it helps out other sectors of the economy, right? Those sectors will pick up the slack eventually. We're in the transition period. So income taxes will go up from corporations and people employed in the manufacturing sector even while they go down in the oil and gas sectors. In the meantime, we have a government that is more willing to pick up any fiscal slack by allowing small deficits to be incurred and this is likely very positive for Canada during this transition. If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
On Guard for Thee Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 I used a fact to make a prediction - big difference. I don't expect you to understand the difference though. Ad what fact was that?
PIK Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 In 4 yrs we will have conservative governments in ONT, Alberta and Canada. Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
overthere Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 In 4 years we will have even larger deficits and debts at provincial and federal levels. Taxes will be much higher. What will be the real turd in the equation is that interest rates will have increased and the burden will be increasingly onerous. Our children will curse us, with reason. Science too hard for you? Try religion!
msj Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) In 4 years we will have even larger deficits and debts at provincial and federal levels. Taxes will be much higher. What will be the real turd in the equation is that interest rates will have increased and the burden will be increasingly onerous. Our children will curse us, with reason. The trick is to get your personal debt down. That's what I have done - interest rates mean little to me as my savings are invested in stocks and I have very little debt. As for government debt - as a % of GDP, unless we have a major recession thanks to stupid people going into debt for homes, I would guess that it will hover in an acceptable range. Probably a bit higher based on what Trudeau has promised. Nothing to lose sleep over though. Maybe not - the Liberals say that the $4.3 billion promised by the CPC to dairy farmers is not a done deal. So who knows, maybe thanks to bribery with taxpayers money we will see a shift here which may reduce the burden for all. Edited November 18, 2015 by msj If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
notca Posted November 18, 2015 Report Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) Are you terrified to live there? If so, move. Plenty of white small town communities who would welcome you. I don't live there. I lived there In the 1960s when it was safe to walk anywhere any time of the day or night. When I could buy a meal of Canadian cuisine. When I could understand what was being said around me. When the city was clean. When the crime rate was very low. Going back there now to visit or to shop is an exercise in frustration. Crime and gang wars are rampant. There are a gazillion different ethnicities there and they all hate each other. Edited November 18, 2015 by notca
Smallc Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Ahh, so you haven't been to Toronto then.
PIK Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Toronto taking in 125,000 new people a yr, will cause a lot of problems down the road. That city some day will explode. Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
Smallc Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Toronto taking in 125,000 new people a yr, will cause a lot of problems down the road. That city some day will explode. Based on what, exactly?
Black Dog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 I think in the future Canada will look much like overpopulated countries like Pakistan and India. There will be wall-to-wall housing, all society will be urbanized, agriculture will be non-existent, the uninhabited countryside, what is left of it, will be overgrown and littered with trash and the white race will have become the greatest minority. I think there will be civil unrest and gang violence brought about by prejudices brought into the country by the many different races and cultures. LOL @ "the white race." Who counts as a member of the white race? Do Italians? Jews? I don't live there. I lived there In the 1960s when it was safe to walk anywhere any time of the day or night. When I could buy a meal of Canadian cuisine. When I could understand what was being said around me. When the city was clean. When the crime rate was very low. Going back there now to visit or to shop is an exercise in frustration. Crime and gang wars are rampant. There are a gazillion different ethnicities there and they all hate each other. You mean a city of 6 million isn't exactly the same as it was 40 years ago when it had fewer than 2 million people? Shocker. Toronto is probably the safest city of its size in the entire world with a murder rate equivalent to that of Portland, OR. Though there are problems with gangs, "gang wars" are non-existent; rather there is the occasional flare up of violence among low level street criminals, but nothing on the scale of, say, the Quebec biker wars. It's also very clean for a city of its size. As for the ethnicities thing, ironically the same shit you're saying here was being spewed by local WASPs during your halcyon days of the 1960s when Italian, Portuguese, Poles and others started arriving in large numbers with their smelly foods and confusing languages. Those immigrants and successive waves since helped urn a tint, second-rate provincial backwater into an actual global city. And the food here is outstanding.
notca Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 LOL @ "the white race." Who counts as a member of the white race? Do Italians? Jews? Yes. The Italians and Jews aren't destructive, disruptive people. No other race, culture, ethnicity causes the problems that a race/culture enslaved by an archaic, barbaric religion does. When I lived in Winnipeg it was the most culturally diverse city in Canada. There were ethnic communities but they didn't fight each other and they interacted with each other. Toronto is now more diverse that any other city except perhaps Montreal, and the ethnic areas are socially isolated from one another by their own choice. My son lives in Toronto so don't get the idea I don't know what it's like there. He married into an Indian family and is now divorced. His current partner is Chinese. Both his ex-inlaws and his current girlfriend and her family feel the same as I do. I am not making up stories. Yes the food is good in Toronto if you like ethnic foods. It is impossible to find a restaurant that serves traditional Canadian cuisine of roast beef and mashed potatoes.
Black Dog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Yes. The Italians and Jews aren't destructive, disruptive people. But they aren't white. At least they weren't considered such when they were regarded as the immigrant scum who were ruining our lily-white communities. No other race, culture, ethnicity causes the problems that a race/culture enslaved by an archaic, barbaric religion does. Yet the issues you're whining about have nothing to do with Islam. When I lived in Winnipeg it was the most culturally diverse city in Canada. There were ethnic communities but they didn't fight each other and they interacted with each other. I'd be shocked if that was ever the case. Got a cite? Toronto is now more diverse that any other city except perhaps Montreal, and the ethnic areas are socially isolated from one another by their own choice. Ever has been thus. Why do you think we have a Little Italy, a Little Portugal, a Chinatown? My son lives in Toronto so don't get the idea I don't know what it's like there. He married into an Indian family and is now divorced. His current partner is Chinese. Both his ex-inlaws and his current girlfriend and her family feel the same as I do. It's obvious from your description that you don't. I am not making up stories. Yes, yes you are. Yes the food is good in Toronto if you like ethnic foods. It is impossible to find a restaurant that serves traditional Canadian cuisine of roast beef and mashed potatoes. It's not that hard at all. I could name a half dozen. Most people just don't bother since there's so many more interesting options available.
Michael Hardner Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Yes. The Italians and Jews aren't destructive, disruptive people. Ethnic relativism continues through the ages. We can go back ... even to recent memory to find so-called rational pejorative arguments about these peoples too. Click to learn why Climate Change is caused by HUMANS Michael Hardner
overthere Posted November 19, 2015 Report Posted November 19, 2015 Well, with the dollar dropping makes gas more expensive for CDN consumers since Brent/WTI is priced in USD. So if the dollar goes down one would expect gas to remain level or go up (depending on if the price of oil goes down which, in turn, influences the CDN $). OTOH, to the extent that the price of oil goes up then this may lead to the dollar appreciating against the USD which could lead to prices going up/down/stable depending on the relationships between the price of oil and the value of the dollar. Once again, Trudeau has little control over these markets and certainly has not done anything in the past few weeks to alter the market in any meaningful way. Hell, even Harper, who was PM for nearly 10 years had little power over these markets and certainly does not deserve blame for the wretched CDN $ nor for the price of oil. A major part of the problem is the price differential between our oil and world price, and a lot of that is because the oil is captive with only one customer who increasingly does not want or need it. And yes, all of our govts could do definitely do something about it by building infrastructure to get the product to other markets. Not only would our markets be expanded, the price differential would be gone. But I expect absolutely nothing from any of them now. Trudeau, Wynne, Notley, Coulliard, Clark... these are the visionary figures who are tasked with leading us to a prosperous future. Yeah right. Science too hard for you? Try religion!
eyeball Posted November 20, 2015 Report Posted November 20, 2015 (edited) In 4 yrs we will have conservative governments in ONT, Alberta and Canada. Not just conservative but hard-boiled conservative. I'm quite sure it will still seem like a distant shore with armies of lefties ranked out in front of you but you'll be that much closer to Nirvana. It's just rotten bad luck for Harper this Paris thing didn't happen about 4 weeks sooner than it did but cheer up PIK the tide will be turning your way again in very short order. Edited November 20, 2015 by eyeball A government without public oversight is like a nuclear plant without lead shielding.
square Posted March 9, 2016 Report Posted March 9, 2016 Social conservatives head will explode as assisted suicide will be legal, marijuana will be legal, prostitution will be decriminalized and the Canadian Health Act will be updated to allow for easy access to abortion services in Canada.
poochy Posted March 9, 2016 Report Posted March 9, 2016 Social conservatives head will explode as assisted suicide will be legal, marijuana will be legal, prostitution will be decriminalized and the Canadian Health Act will be updated to allow for easy access to abortion services in Canada. Yea, just like abortion, gay marriage, and when women got the vote, sure, there are a very small minority of social conservatives who will be bothered by some of these things, and they will be ignored just like they mostly always have been, but probably not nearly as many as the stupid people on the left that say thought the gun registry worked. O but let me guess, left wing stupidity is just fine, because it doesn't exist right? Anyway, if you are capable of it, you might want to consider that the social conservative bogey man isn't nearly as prevalent as your hopes and dreams want it to be, but then who would you write silly rants about? O, fyi, the biggest marijuana users i've known were conservatives, and we already have unregulated and easy access to abortion, but keep on ranting on!
ironstone Posted March 12, 2016 Report Posted March 12, 2016 Four years from now,the feds will likely have added something like 40-60 billion more in debt,perhaps more.Our electoral system may have been changed by then to stack the deck in favour of the Liberals.I do hope our economy improves by then of course,but I don't hold much confidence in Trudeau based on what I have seen so far. Also,even if things haven't improved four years from now in any way,I predict another easy Trudeau majority win. "Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it." Thomas Sowell
ironstone Posted March 12, 2016 Report Posted March 12, 2016 Oh yeah,no Keystone ,and no oil pipelines of any kind in Canada either. "Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it." Thomas Sowell
Topaz Posted March 12, 2016 Report Posted March 12, 2016 I don't think most world leaders want WW3 but when u look at the mess the ME is in and then we have N. Korea shooting off missiles and wanting attention, one has to wonder what the next for 4 years will be worse or better. I'm also wondering if JT thinks of the NAU and how cozy Canada and the US will be.
Smallc Posted March 13, 2016 Report Posted March 13, 2016 Four years from now,the feds will likely have added something like 40-60 billion more in debt Probably more, given that we're entering a period of low growth. Of course, you didn't say much during the previous low growth period, when Harper added $130B to the debt. Our electoral system may have been changed by then to stack the deck in favour of the Liberals. Maybe changed, but probably it won't really change things. Parties will adapt, as always. I do hope our economy improves by then of course,but I don't hold much confidence in Trudeau based on what I have seen so far. I don't hold out much hope for our economy in the short to medium term, but that has nothing to do with Trudeau. He's performed well, and is the talk of the political and corporate world. We're lucky to have a leader that people actually care abut. Also,even if things haven't improved four years from now in any way,I predict another easy Trudeau majority win. I predict the same thing.
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