Strategic Voting - It needs to be done

[marcus]

The "first past the post" electoral system and the way our electoral districts are set up, has shown its shortcoming; A party who becomes a majority government with only 39% of the votes.

Harper and the Conservatives have played the same divisional tactic that the Republicans have played and have molded their fan base into becoming unconditional cheerleaders. The Conservatives can count on their loyal supporters, like the old stock Canadians to get the guaranteed votes. This minority group will actually show up to vote.

Then you have the two centrist parties and the smaller left party vote splitting: The Liberals and the NDP (Yes. The NDP, under Mulcair should now be considered a Centrist party) and the Greens continue to take each other out. This works perfectly well for Harper.

This needs to stop. We keep hearing "Anyone but Harper", from majority of Canadians, so how do we achieve this?

We need to vote strategically.

Below is some information in regards to swing ridings and strategic voting. There is also a video that those who want "Anyone but Harper" can pass around to get people to think about their options.

http://www.votetogether.ca/

http://www.strategicvoting.ca/swingdistricts.php

(EDITED - adding important information)

The 16 ridings that can defeat Harper

These ridings are uniquely important because:

• Conservatives have a defeatable lead (less than 6% on average).
• The progressive parties are in 2nd and 3rd places.
• The party in 2nd-place is significantly ahead of the one in 3rd (19% lead on average)! Therefore, even when factoring in the most extreme polling errors, it is all but guaranteed that the party in 3rd-place is not going to win.
• Finally, the party in 3rd-place has a sizeable number of votes (18% on average) that can meaningfully impact the election result.

Let’s take action!

First and foremost, we must encourage the Liberals and the NDP to cooperate in the 16 ridings. Calls, emails, and social media campaigns directed at the leaders of the progressive parties are the best ways to advocate their cooperation:

• Liberal Party: 1.888.542.3725, [email protected], @JustinTrudeau
• NDP: 1.866.525.2555, [email protected], @ThomasMulcair

A petition asking party leaders to cooperate has already garnered over 8,500 signatures.

Ridings to Vote for the Liberal Party

These are the ridings where the NDP supporters must vote for the Liberal Party candidate:

• Brampton Centre (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Rosemary Keenan to endorse Liberal’s Ramesh Sangha:
  http://rosemarykeenan.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @rosemary_k_ndp
• Aurora — Oak Ridges — Richmond Hill (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Brenda Power to endorse Liberal’s Leona Alleslev:http://brendapower.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @brendapowerndp
• Saint John — Rothesay (NB)
  Ask NDP candidate AJ Griffin to endorse Liberal’s Wayne Long:
  http://ajgriffin.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @angelajogriffin
• Bay of Quinte (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Terry Cassidy to endorse Liberal’s Neil Ellis:
  http://terrycassidy.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @BayofQuinteNDP
• Vaughan — Woodbridge (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Adriana Zichy to endorse Liberal’s Francesco Sorbara
  http://adrianazichy.ndp.ca/contact
• Haldimand — Norfolk (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate John Harris to endorse Liberal’s Joan Mouland:
  http://johnharris.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @jackharrisndp
• Northumberland — Peterborough South (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Russ Christianson to endorse Liberal’s Kim Rudd:
  http://russchristianson.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @RussNDP
• King — Vaughan (ON)
  Ask NDP candidate Natalie Rizzo to endorse Liberal’s Deb Schulte:
  http://natalierizzo.ndp.ca/contact
  Twitter: @nataliemrizzo

Ridings to Vote for the NDP

These are the ridings where the Liberal Party supporters must vote for the NDP candidate:

• Jonquiere (QB)
  Ask Liberal candidate Marc Pettersen to endorse NDP’s Karine Trudel:
  https://www.facebook.com/pettersenmarc
• Cariboo — Prince George (BC)
  Ask Liberal candidate Tracy Calogheros to endorse NDP’s Trent Derrick:
  http://www.electtracy.ca/contact/
  Twitter: @TracyCalogheros
• Regina — Qu’Appelle (SK)
  Ask Liberal candidate Della Anaquod to endorse NDP’s Nial Kuyek:
  1.306.949.6820
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @teamdella2015
• Edmonton Griesbach (AB)
  Ask Liberal candidate Brian Gold to endorse NDP’s Janis Irwin:
  780.616.3086
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @votebriangold
• Mission — Matsqui — Fraser Canyon (BC)
  Ask Liberal candidate Jati Sidhu to endorse NDP’s Dennis Adamson:
  778.242.4542
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @VoteJatiSidhu
• Coquitlam — Port Coquitlam (BC)
  Ask Liberal candidate Ron McKinnon to endorse NDP’s Sara Norman:
  604.475.8858
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @RonMcKinnonLib
• North Okanagan — Shuswap (BC)
  Ask Liberal candidate Cindy Derkaz to endorse NDP’s Jacqui Gingras:
  250.549.8420
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @CDerkaz
• Essex (ON)
  Ask Liberal candidate Audrey Festeryga to endorse NDP’s Tracey Ramsey:
  519.962.5155
  [email protected]
  Twitter: @AudreyFesteryga

Edited October 7, 2015 by marcus

[eyeball]

Strategic Voting - It needs to be done

I don't see anyway around it if you know that voting for what you really want guarantees you get the last thing you want.

[bush_cheney2004]

I liked the video....usual American references to help explain things. Good luck with strategic voting, 'cause if you ain't first, you are last.

[Vancouver King]

It is accurate to say given current polling, if we don't vote strategically on Oct. 19th we are destined for 4 more years of Stephen Harper.

[waldo]

It is accurate to say given current polling, if we don't vote strategically on Oct. 19th we are destined for 4 more years of Stephen Harper.

no - if you accept the current polling as being representative... and it carries through to the election, there is no way Harper Conservatives can manage a majority. Both Mulcair and Trudeau have stated their respective parties will not support a Harper run government. If Harper actually chooses to stay on, the duration of the Harper Conservative government will remain for as long as they stall in bringing forward a money related/budget bill.

[August1991]

The "first past the post" electoral system and the way our electoral districts are set up, has shown its shortcoming; A party who becomes a majority government with only 39% of the votes.

So, you don't like Harper. Why does your dislike of Harper motivate your desire to change Canada's voting system? Our voting system has existed for over 100 years. It works. (Canada is a democratic, civilized state.) You would change all this because you happen to dislike one guy?

Marcus, people like you scare me. You'd change something, even if it works, on a whim.

Edited September 30, 2015 by August1991

[marcus]

So, you don't like Harper. Why does your dislike of Harper motivate your desire to change Canada's voting system? Our voting system has existed for over 100 years. It works. (Canada is a democratic, civilized state.) You would change all this because you happen to dislike one guy?

Marcus, people like you scare me. You'd change something, even if it works, on a whim.

Proportional representation is more democratic.

[-1=e^ipi]

1. Wasn't Jean Chretien getting majority governments with 37% of the vote? This isn't a problem that started with Harper.

2. This may be surprising to some people, but not everyone views the Liberals and NDP as interchangeable. Some dislike either the Liberals or the NDP more than the Conservatives.

3. I live in a safe NDP riding, so my vote won't matter; although I will probably spoil it anyway.

[waldo]

1. Wasn't Jean Chretien getting majority governments with 37% of the vote?

in each of the following 3 Chretien winning elections, there were always 5 legitimate parties running (be they variations of Liberal, PC, Alliance, Reform, BQ, or NDP)... Chretien Liberal majority governments - percentage of votes:

1993 - 41.24%

1997 - 38.46%

2000 - 40.85%

[-1=e^ipi]

1997 - 38.46%

And Harper won a majority with 37.65%. Not a big difference.

[G Huxley]

It's really not so simple as often it's too difficult to tell which candidate has a better chance as often they are neck and neck.

Anyway I don't think there is a snowball's chance of hell the conservative will win in my riding.

I think people here have enough sense that when a candidate doesn't show up to any of the all candidates' meetings, but has a teddy bear show up instead that his party are a farce which doesn't belong in Ottawa.

Unfortunately the polls don't bode well for much of the country especially in backwaters with low education.

Edited September 30, 2015 by G Huxley

[waldo]

And Harper won a majority with 37.65%. Not a big difference.

no - that 2008 election result was a minority government. The point I emphasized, that you're missing here, is the number of other legitimate parties (splitting votes) running when Harper Conservatives won elections... 4, versus the 5 within the aforementioned 3 Chretien winning elections.

[-1=e^ipi]

no - that 2008 election result was a minority government. The point I emphasized, that you're missing here, is the number of other legitimate parties (splitting votes) running when Harper Conservatives won elections... 4, versus the 5 within the aforementioned 3 Chretien winning elections.

Libs, Cons, NDP, Greens, Bloc. That's 5.

Anyway, I disagree with FPTP too. What are we even disagreeing over? All I am saying is that FPTP was an issue pre-Harper and is an issue in other countries such as the UK.

Edited September 30, 2015 by -1=e^ipi

[Go.Leafs]

I agree with the OP. If the Conservatives are so strong in my riding, I will vote for anyone that removes Harper. Thanks for the video. We should all share it with our friends. I confess, I voted for Harper when he first got in, but since then I felt like I was used and deceived as a voter.

[Islander1]

Proportional representation is more democratic.

Only if we get to vote on it.

[Freddy]

You guys have a hard time even getting yourself to the polls. And you want them to strategic vote?

Good luck with that.

[Michael Hardner]

Proportional representation is more democratic.

You ignored marcus' point. Direct voting is the most democratic thing, so we could also redesign the whole system to implement that if "more democratic" trumps all other goals. There needs to be a balance.

Strategic voting, at least, uses the current system to get rid of the one guy you don't like. It doesn't redesign the whole system.

[CITIZEN_2015]

We need to vote strategically.

If Liberals and conservatives are tied and you vote for a party that statistically has no chance to be elected as government you prop up the Tories by taking a vote away from challenging Liberals.

The "first past the post" electoral system and the way our electoral districts are set up, has shown its shortcoming; A party who becomes a majority government with only 39% of the votes.

Not true it is much worse than you think marcus. A party can form a majority with only 25% of eligible voters like last time. Considering that only 60 to 70% of eligible voters vote in an election (and the most likely reason the other 30 to 40% don't participate is likely because they have no faith in any of the parties or no party represent their beliefs) then with 39% of vote means only 25% of eligible voters vote for the party which formed a majority. In other words the minority religious right dictates the remaining 75 to 80% of us how t live our lives. These are facts and figures not my invention.

Edited October 5, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Evening Star]

As I said in another thread, (now that NDP is a distant third) a vote for NDP is a vote for conservatives.

I disagree for several reasons:

i) A vote for the NDP is a vote for the NDP. It might not stop the Conservatives in every riding (and nor does a Liberal vote) but it does not actively help them either.

ii) There are many ridings where the two strongest candidates are NDP and Conservative. In my riding, for instance, the NDP are almost guaranteed the seat but the #2 candidate was a Tory last time. If anything, the chances of the Tories winning the riding are higher if NDP voters switch to the Liberals. (This has happened before as a result of 'strategic' voting. Scroll down to "When centre-left progressives indiscriminately vote Liberal...": http://idealisticpragmatist.blogspot.com/2006/12/response-to-terry-glavin.html). If people are going to go in for strategic voting (I wouldn't anyway), there should at least be some, well, strategy involved: get detailed information on a riding-by-riding level. This is not a referendum or Presidential election.

iii) You are trying to calculate your vote based on an assumption about how other people vote. There is no guarantee that you will be right. The polls are already quite different from what they were like two weeks ago. We do not know what they will look like in three weeks. If anything, the more that people try to vote 'strategically', the harder it could be to predict this.

iv) As Euler noted, just because someone supports the NDP or Greens does not mean that their support transfers to the Liberals! They are different parties for a reason.

Edited September 30, 2015 by Evening Star

[waldo]

just because someone supports the NDP or Greens does not mean that their support transfers to the Liberals! They are different parties for a reason.

of course... one chooses a party on overall principle(s)... it would be folly to suggest anyone agrees with everything their favoured party stands for. I regularly read one member here flipping his vote simply on the 'cause of the day' - principles? What principles! So, in the vein of strategic ABC (Anyone But Conservative) voting, the 'cause of the day' becomes ABC... on principle!

.

[Go.Leafs]

I am in favor. What about the rest of you? Is there really any down side to it?

Edited September 30, 2015 by Go.Leafs

[Evening Star]

Do we need two new threads on this in one day?

[Go.Leafs]

I am trying to find out if there is a down side to this strategy.

[Hydraboss]

There is. The strategy of starting two of the same threads in a day will likely fail to gain interest.

[Vancouver King]

no - if you accept the current polling as being representative... and it carries through to the election, there is no way Harper Conservatives can manage a majority. Both Mulcair and Trudeau have stated their respective parties will not support a Harper run government. If Harper actually chooses to stay on, the duration of the Harper Conservative government will remain for as long as they stall in bringing forward a money related/budget bill.

yes - in addition to the 33 points (and growing) Tories now regularly poll, it is a safe wager that ALL 33% will actually show up to vote - the same cannot be said for opposition parties. This factor alone always underestimates Conservative election day support by about 4-5 points.

Your continuing denial will not alter what is coming.