Who will get 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination?

[waldo]

as he literally pulls the U.S. Republican party apart, is Donald J. Trump a... "Trojan horse" for the Democractic Party? Trump the Uniter!

recent Trump unfavorable ratings among Americans polled/surveyed:

- 68% in the most recent Bloomberg poll,

- 67% in the CNN/ORC survey,

- 67% in the ABC/Washington Post poll,

- 65% from Gallup.

[cybercoma]

re: the aforementioned Trump release on his Wisconsin loss:

on the sore loser Trump... from the leading conservative, political news blog redstate:

Wisconsin Loser Donald Trump Issues Loser Statement On Losing

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Wait, the anti-establishment Trump is crying that the establishment doesn't support him? Haha. You can't write better stuff.

[Big Guy]

Looks like a Convention brokered nomination. Look for lots of fireworks with nominations coming from the floor.

The first part of any convention is a rules committee which will meet and establish the rules of how they will choose their candidate. That will be packed with old guard Republicans. This will be fun!

[August1991]

Looks like a Convention brokered nomination....

As long as I can recall, there has always been talk of a "brokered convention".

The NYT has a good website to calculate Republican/Democrat delegates under different (even extreme) scenarios. Trump crosses over in June, with California. Rodham-Clinton before - given her super delegates.

Edited April 7, 2016 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

As long as I can recall, there has always been talk of a "brokered convention".

The RNC's rules committee can make sure that happens for 2016, just as they panicked over Ron Paul on 2012, raising state wins from 5 to 8 in order to be on the nominating ballet. Mitt Romney's people had a majority on the rules committee.

[waldo]

Looks like a Convention brokered nomination. Look for lots of fireworks with nominations coming from the floor.

The first part of any convention is a rules committee which will meet and establish the rules of how they will choose their candidate. That will be packed with old guard Republicans. This will be fun!

as I read/interpret: rules committee packed with Trump and Cruz delegates that will block Kasich from the ballot (by reaffirming the prior convention rule that requires a candidate to win 8 states). With 16 Republican primaries and caucuses remaining, Trump must win 70% of the delegates to secure the 1,237 needed to win the first ballot... highly unlikely given Cruz momentum, favourable states (to Cruz) remaining and the "stop-Trump" campaign in play. After the first round 'expert opinion' has delegates swinging big-time towards Cruz.

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[Derek 2.0]

After the first round 'expert opinion' has delegates swinging big-time towards Cruz.

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It looks that way........but with the remaining 16 States, it shouldn't be considered a "cakewalk" for Cruz.....the next State, delegate rich New York, has shown recent polls with Kasich in second place behind Trump....likewise Pennsylvania. If Kasich is able to keep Trump under 50% in New York, the State's delegates are then issued proportionally.......in other words, if Kasich is able to best Cruz in some larger races, it might give the GOP pause over the 8 won States threshold at the convention.......a Cruz versus Trump convention is just picking the loser of the general......granted losing with Cruz might allow the GOP to keep Congress and the Senate, well putting down the ever yapping Tea-Party dog for 2020......

[Big Guy]

The first "official" process that takes place at the Republican convention is a meeting of the rules committee. This is made up of 2 reps from each state. The selection process for these reps is hazy. This rules committee can make any changes that they want.

Do you know that delegates can vote for anybody - that person does not even have to be nominated. A Ryan could be elected winner without even running.

[Derek 2.0]

Do you know that delegates can vote for anybody - that person does not even have to be nominated. A Ryan could be elected winner without even running.

Only after the first round of voting, after that the horse trading and backroom deals will begin in earnest.......I doubt Ryan would be interested under these circumstances and in this cycle.

[August1991]

The RNC's rules committee can make sure that happens for 2016, just as they panicked over Ron Paul on 2012, raising state wins from 5 to 8 in order to be on the nominating ballet. Mitt Romney's people had a majority on the rules committee.

BC, every quadrennial - as long as I can remember - there is talk of a brokered convention. The logic of the brokerage varies. Yet, it doesn't happen.

Admittedly this election has had some some weird shifts - but I reckon that it's the US as usual. Whadda country!

[Big Guy]

The Republicans are having a convention. There are two major players neither of which have enough delegates to win - a brokered convention. One is a popular upstart and one is the choice of the party.

This year? No.

Year? - 1976. Reagan the upstart and Ford the incumbent party favorite.

All kinds of games being played with the rules committee playing games and delegates being squeezed, threatened and bribed. Lots of bluster and BS. In the end, the party has the organization and power to reelect Ford as the Republican nominee and eventually President.

I do not think you can thumb your nose at the establishment and succeed. There is just too much money, power and influence there for an uppity newbie to take over the power.

I look to anyone but Trump to be nominated.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Big Guy

[bush_cheney2004]

....Year? - 1976. Reagan the upstart and Ford the incumbent party favorite.

All kinds of games being played with the rules committee playing games and delegates being squeezed, threatened and bribed. Lots of bluster and BS. In the end, the party has the organization and power to reelect Ford as the Republican nominee and eventually President.

President Ford was never elected U.S. President, and as incumbent, he lost to Gov. Jimmy Carter in the 1976 election.

[waldo]

Colorado... another state that chose not to follow the primary/caucus route in selecting Republican delegates. Today, Ted Cruz won all 21 available candidates... tomorrow (Saturday) the convention selects/awards the remaining 13 delegates available:

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas swept up a fresh cache of delegates in Colorado on Friday as his supporters won a majority of the state’s 37 slots at the Republican National Convention even before the state’s full GOP convention meets here Saturday.

In a series of party meetings by congressional district over the last week, Mr. Cruz’s supporters shut out his rivals to win all 21 delegate slots–3 from each of the state’s 7 congressional districts. The last meeting was Friday, in advance of the state convention that will award another 13 delegates tomorrow; 3 remaining slots are filled by top state party officials.

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Edited April 9, 2016 by waldo

[waldo]

Colorado state sweep by Cruz... taking the additional 13 delegates on Saturday for a sweep of the 34 delegates available:

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[kimmy]

Trump looks poised to score 'UUUUUUUGE victories in New York and Pennsylvania, states with a lot more delegates up for grabs than Colorado.

-k

[Big Guy]

I still contend that the Republican leadership will not allow either Trump or Cruz to win the nomination.

It will be a contested convention with somebody being nominated from the floor and eventually chosen.

Someone charismatic, proven leadership qualities, staunch Republican, popular with the people.

How about Paul Ryan? He is not running you say. If he is nominated from the floor then he is not running - NOW.

Just ran across this video:

Paul Ryan

This is not a campaign video?

Edited April 11, 2016 by Big Guy

[waldo]

Trump looks poised to score 'UUUUUUUGE victories in New York and Pennsylvania, states with a lot more delegates up for grabs than Colorado.

yabut...This is the week that Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination

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[kimmy]

Isn't Redstate Erick Erickson's rag? He's the leader of the Anybody But Trump faction of the Republicans. Anything you read on that site is likely to be anti-Trump propaganda, much like anything you read at Breitbart is likely to be pro-Trump propaganda.

-k

[waldo]

yes, redstate is 'establishment conservative'... beatin' up on the lil' guy Trump! Certainly liberty was taken with the title of the article I linked; however, the crux of it is more balanced in terms of a likelihood in stopping Trump from getting that 1237 threshold count... leading to further convention ballots opening up delegate shifting.

#CruzTrojanHorse

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[Rue]

Things are being set up for what is called a brokered convention where a third party not on the ballot can be chosen.

It would not surprise me if that person is Paul Ryan. The Republican establishment is faced with 3 remaining candidates they do not

want and do not think can beat Clinton and they see her as weak and they will arrange a brokered third party come out of nowhere.

That is my prediction for what it is worth. I just can't see either Cruz or Trump mending the Republican party to come off the convention floor as leader. Not going to happen not with all the power people behind the scenes mortified at what has happened to their party.

As for the Democrats the fact that an unrealistic, socialist academic like Granpa Bernie is so popular not withstanding he could never

beat Hilary shows she does not have a people person touch. She's seen as an elitist.

If its between her and trump she wins. Put a person who speaks politely against her and avoids unpopular smeer like words, she could easily be beaten. Anyone against Cruz or Trump could win at this point. One is grease and one is just shallow shock jock drunk words that have run out of steam. The Trump shtick blew itself out. All demagogues do. If you want to be Mussolini you have to be prepared to do more than pose and puff. Trump has the Mussolini pump and puff routine when he speaks and the off the cuff insulting language that makes weak people feel strong but its a quick fix and like a cigarette the high wears off real fast and each time you inhale it, you need more and more of it to have the same effect until you grow immune to it which is happening.

His build the wall shtick that he returned to when his foreign policy and abortion comments blew up in his face did not restore him as he

thought. The reality of having Mexican leaders call him an idiot in public made people start to think, how far do they go with a man willing to insult the world let alone his neighbours.

[blueblood]

Isn't Redstate Erick Erickson's rag? He's the leader of the Anybody But Trump faction of the Republicans. Anything you read on that site is likely to be anti-Trump propaganda, much like anything you read at Breitbart is likely to be pro-Trump propaganda.

-k

I dont know why everyone is out pulling their hair over which "unelectable" person democrat or republican wins. They can talk out of their ass all they want, they wont be able to influence congress. Perhaps thats why the republican "establishment" was so against cruz and trump in the first place as there could be another 4 yrs of do nothing gridlock.

[Topaz]

Apparently, the Clintons have the upper hand on the Republican party and this same news is said to have it with another person who is about to go to court of sue the Rep. Party for fraud but this same person has the dirt of the Clintons too, so let see how long this guy lives.

[Big Guy]

Looks liked Kasich and Cruz have decided to unite to dump Trump. They plan to co-operate on a few primaries to try to get one of them winning certain primaries:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/24/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-join-forces-to-stop-donald-trump/index.html

Not sure if it appears arrogant to presume that you can tell your supporters on who to vote for. This may backfire on them.

[betsy]

Who will get the Rep nomination?

Uh, The Donald.....of course.

[kimmy]

yabut...This is the week that Ted Cruz won the Republican nomination

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Not looking good for Ted. Nate Silver's projections have Trump on pace to secure a majority of delegates.

Cruz has a Big Announcement for later today. I wonder what he has in mind?

-k