Federal Election Polls

[Spiderfish]

See this time around i know harper has been in for too long and people are sick of him and had the liberals had a different leader than trudeau i would seriously look at them. However a lot of people have bought into this tax the rich nonsense with excessive deficit spending.

I agree, I would be willing to give the Liberals a chance this time around if they had someone in charge that didn't think budgets balance themself, or that Canada is better served when there are more Quebecers in charge, that this country belongs to them.

I think people assume interest rates are going to stay low forever. I think the status quo opinion now is that trudeau is foing to win and i think he will get two or three terms if interest rates stay low. Unfortunately the next generation of canadians are going to be paying through the nose for this upcoming spending spree and the interest on it.

I think the current and likely the next generation have already bought into the plan. Buy now, pay later seems to be a popular concept these days.

[CITIZEN_2015]

I think you mistakenly added one extra "O" in "GOOD".

Ha ha good one . Thanks for the laugh. Happy Thanksgiving .

Edited October 12, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Shady]

The only party having a real chance for a majority government is the Liberal party of Canada and even that based on two conditions. That the Nanos daily polls putting them ahead by 6 to 7% is correct and second that this lead is even widen further by another 3 to 4% over the next 7 days. The conservative party at best has 33% of support and has little or no chance to form a majority government.

Ekos has always been out of touch. Only two weeks ago while all the polls were reporting statistical tie between liberals and conservatives they suddenly reported a likely conservative majority on September 29!!! and they had the worst record on predicting the 2011 election among all polls. I never even trust this pollster as I have said before.

Right. Just ignore polls that don't reinforce your beliefs. Yes, ekos has been out of touch, underestimating conservative support.

[Shady]

I think you mistakenly added one extra "O" in "GOOD".

It's funny cause it's true.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Right. Just ignore polls that don't reinforce your beliefs. Yes, ekos has been out of touch, underestimating conservative support.

I didn't invent the fact and that is they had the worst record among pollsters for predicting 2011 results. Angus Reid (also indicating a numeric conservative lead) was the best within 1% accuracy and Nanos was second best with 1.4% accuracy from real results.

Edited October 12, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[dialamah]

I think you mistakenly added one extra "O" in "GOOD".

LOL. The conservative supporters on the FB conservatives page have that down to an art, "Harper is the BEST. God Bless you, Mr Harper. Only you can save Canada, PM Harper". It was like reading a church revival meeting - especially since the moderators take care to remove any even slightly negative remark and ban repeat offenders. (I know all parties do that, but the Libs/NDP didn't seem quite as rabid about it)

But JT is good. I think he sounds too rehearsed on speeches but interacting directly with people, one-on-one, he seems exceedingly relaxed, warm and genuine. And I'm really tired of "the middle class and those working hard to join it ... ". The message is fine, but I wish they could find different wording.

Edited October 12, 2015 by dialamah

[ToadBrother]

In BC, the Liberal government has had three straight balanced budgets, our jobless rate is one of the 2 or 3 lowest in the land. Our credit rating is good. As far as I can tell, businesses seem to love BC. This is a LIBERAL government here.

The BC Liberals are a right of centre party that have not had any meaningful association with other liberal parties in Canada in over a quarter of a century. It is not a branch of the Federal Liberals, but is simply the old Socred coalition that coalesced around the partyin the mid-90s.

Edited October 12, 2015 by ToadBrother

[dialamah]

I agree, I would be willing to give the Liberals a chance this time around if they had someone in charge that didn't think budgets balance themself,

I kept hearing this, but it's obviously part of a longer statement. It would be interesting to know what was said before and after, because in context it might make sense.

[On Guard for Thee]

Right. Just ignore polls that don't reinforce your beliefs. Yes, ekos has been out of touch, underestimating conservative support.

Ekos hasn't been close to getting things right since 1997.

[Shady]

Ekos hasn't been close to getting things right since 1997.

Keep blaming the polls.

[ToadBrother]

Keep blaming the polls.

It is clearly an outlier. None of the other polls show this result. It appears to be you who is picking the polls.

[waldo]

Keep blaming the polls.

keep favouring your selectively chosen polls

[capricorn]

Happy Thanksgiving .

Happy Thanksgiving to you too Citizen_2015.

[On Guard for Thee]

Keep blaming the polls.

Um...I don't think tracking their record is "blaming" them Shady.

[Keepitsimple]

I kept hearing this, but it's obviously part of a longer statement. It would be interesting to know what was said before and after, because in context it might make sense.

I doubt it. Here's the full question - and the full answer - and you can hear his exact words at 30:40 of the attached link.

"Would it worry you to go into deficit in this current climate to, as you say, put more people to work?" Van Dusen asked.

"The commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself," the Grit leader replied.

Link: http://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/primetime-politics/episodes/30396042/

[CITIZEN_2015]

Thanks so much capricorn.

It is important to remember the fact. We are all Canadians belonging to the same community of now 33 million people of all races and religions living in peace and relative prosperity and I have no tolerance for anyone to disturb that since that is what makes Canada the best country in the world. We all want a better Canada and higher standard of living for all Canadians and less poverty and more wealth (including Harper and conservative party) we just have different ideas on how to achieve those goals but we all want the same thing. We will be much stronger and more likely to achieve those goals united than divided and that is the main reason why I have chosen to vote for the Liberal party of Canada.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Citizen.

[eyeball]

How is it fair if the money doesn't go to where you think it goes?

Harper has had years to improve accountability and transparency. Are you now suggesting the measures he put in will be ineffective? How do you explain that?

[Bryan]

Ekos hasn't been close to getting things right since 1997.

This is true, their Conservative numbers are always 5-6% lower than what actually happens at the polls.

[eyeball]

Poll Tracker has it:

Lib 34.2

CPC 31.7

NDP 23.4

And the Liberals with a minority of 134 seats.

It also shows that support for both CPC and NDP continues to drop while the LPC is the benefactor. Let's see how that continues over the final week.

This would be the ideal outcome in my books.

[Triple M]

The only party having a real chance for a majority government is the Liberal party of Canada and even that based on two conditions. That the Nanos daily polls putting them ahead by 6 to 7% is correct and second that this lead is even widen further by another 3 to 4% over the next 7 days. The conservative party at best has 33% of support and has little or no chance to form a majority government.

Ekos has always been out of touch. Only two weeks ago while all the polls were reporting statistical tie between liberals and conservatives they suddenly reported a likely conservative majority on September 29!!! and they had the worst record on predicting the 2011 election among all polls. I never even trust this pollster as I have said before.

Ekos wasn't an outlier at that time

Forum

Angus Reid

and i believe innovation showed similar CPC support

[waldo]

This is true, their Conservative numbers are always 5-6% lower than what actually happens at the polls.

2% difference for EKOS in the 2008 election

[On Guard for Thee]

This would be the ideal outcome in my books.

I keep hearing reports of record high turnouts at advance polls so it seems people are engaged this time around.

[ironstone]

Thanks so much capricorn.

It is important to remember the fact. We are all Canadians belonging to the same community of now 33 million people of all races and religions living in peace and relative prosperity and I have no tolerance for anyone to disturb that since that is what makes Canada the best country in the world. We all want a better Canada and higher standard of living for all Canadians and less poverty and more wealth (including Harper and conservative party) we just have different ideas on how to achieve those goals but we all want the same thing. We will be much stronger and more likely to achieve those goals united than divided and that is the main reason why I have chosen to vote for the Liberal party of Canada.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Citizen.

I agree with you,all the parties want to achieve the same thing basically but not on how to do it.That is why I have voted for the Conservatives.All parties of the same name are of course not the same,a lot depends on the leader.Justin Trudeau reminds me too much of Kathleen Wynne in that he is promising to run deficits and pile up more debt,not to mention the green energy thing.It's not working in Ontario and it won't work for Canada.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/09/unemployment-canada-september-2015_n_8268758.html

[CITIZEN_2015]

Ekos wasn't an outlier at that time

Forum

Angus Reid

and i believe innovation showed similar CPC support

On September 22, EKOS reported a 9% lead for conservatives an almost a majority. All other polls were reporting statistical tie between the two several days before and after.

Edited October 12, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[dialamah]

I doubt it. Here's the full question - and the full answer - and you can hear his exact words at 30:40 of the attached link.

Link: http://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/primetime-politics/episodes/30396042/

Thanks for the link. And, just as there are two intepretations of Harper's economic record (kept us whole; complete failure), I think there are two interpretations of this statement. (Idiot who doesn't know what he's talking about; growing the economy now will lead to balanced budgets further down the road).

However, I would agree the statement is, at the very least, clumsy. Along the lines of Harper's "Old Stock" Canadians. Perfect opportunities for the opposing team to make fun of them.