impartialobserver

3 years. They will keep their game faces on and act as friends during election season. Trump will win and for the honeymoon period.. all will be well. However, Trump's verbal diarrhea will put Vance in a bad spot in front of the camera and so will start the enmity.

I took a Canadian History-ish course in college. Super interesting stuff. As for US History.. standard stuff. You take US history (mostly 1700 to 1920) in 9th grade, WWI to the present in 10th grade, and then US Government or Civics in 12th grade. I would agree that most Canadians know more US History than the converse.

At the time of my writing the post that you responded to.. I was not aware of the video. I have not watched the video.. I have a life. However, I know your types and there is no answer that I, nor anyone else, could give that would satiate you.

I guess.. we shall see. Stories like this take time. The shooting was on Sunday, July 15 and today is only tuesday, July 17.. seems like you want a full documentary that lays out every detail out on Netflix already.

I hate to tell you but when you take a suspect's phone and computer into custody.. you do not get a press release giving the full details of those item in a few days. Some of it is the time it takes to sift through all of the clutter (real or digital) in a person's life and then the bureaucratic food chain. It is extremely unlikely that he wrote some simple manifesto that laid out when he was going to do it, how he was going to do it, and why. The bread crumbs do not always lead in a straight line. I do fraud investigation and why someone chooses to be fraudulent sometimes can take a few days/weeks. After Stephen Paddock's rampage in Las Vegas.. the conspiracy theorists came out by the truckload. In the weeks to come.. it was found to not be nearly all that interesting. He was apolitical, nonreligious, and just simply an A-hole. The same people were getting suspicious when 3 days after it.. we did not have the entire story out in the open.

Oh... so it was a prediction. What took you so long to admit it? So lets see if it plays out. If the prediction is wrong.. which we will not find out for a year or so.. then feel free to call him/her on it.

I have yet to read anything that clearly proves the shooter's motives.

It is a prediction... how do i and everyone else in the world (except you of course) know this? The inclusion of the word, "Will".. "Will" is not the same as is no matter how you twist it. If the word/phrase had been one of the following.. did, is, had done, you would have a point. When Trump is elected.. then we can verify this prediction.

first, it appears that it really bothers that I do not get outraged about outlandish predictions. Folks make outlandish predictions all of the time.. ie sports. When someone makes a silly prediction like this, it says a few things about them. They are overconfident, braindead, or both. As to it being a lie.. not quite. A lie is when some says that the Carolina Hurricane won the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. First, it is easily verified that they did not. Second, for it to be a lie the person has to know the result or know how to find it. This prediction that you are foaming at the mouth over has not came to fruition yet. Is it likely that they will be wrong? Sure. When the time comes that the result can be verified.. then sure rub it in.

Wow... and with that, I have to unplug and laugh. You must be messing with us.

Here is the difference between us two on this.. I do not take predictions with the utmost seriousness. In short.. this sort of fear mongering does not motivate me. A prediction is not a declarative statement. Predictions are not fact. Look I get what you are saying. The facts do not motivate such a prediction. But they are not technically lying.. the event has not happened so there is no way to verify this. A declarative sentence is generally a simple statement that is used to provide information about something or state a fact. It ends with a full stop or a period. It is the most common type of sentence in the English language.

This is quite true. it being 87 degrees at present in Carson City does not need a certain person to state it for it to be true. It is 87 no matter who agrees or disagrees.

glad that Trump survived. As to if this helps him win.. not quite so sure. I think that we have to give it a few weeks.

shooter has been identified. motive... nothing yet that really passes the sniff test.

Going a bit off in the weeds. Saying something will happen is not a lie no matter the context. Its a prediction, guess, forecast.. whatever you want to call it. Your comments are about the motive behind the prediction.

Just so you can nail someone on this later... LAUS (the unemployment rate) is a count of people. So one person with 4 jobs is counted once. If you are working and are paying into the unemployment insurance system.. then you are counted as employed. CES (the jobs number) is the opposite. One person with 3 jobs is counted 3 times. LAUS does not take below the age of 16, the incarcerated, those attending university. CES on the other hand does not take agriculture into account. As for QCEW and the wages number.. this is more convoluted. The Q is for quarterly and there is a serious lag in its production. 2024 q1 data will come out in Oct. 2024. Every employer that pays into the UI system is required to fill out wage reports. From these wage reports, we found out how much they are paying their employees in total. We do not get hours or any occupational stuff. So for 2024 q1, company x paid 34 employees a total of 1 million in wages (easy math). From there, we get an average weekly wage by doing the following 34/1,000,000 = 29,411 per employee. From there, 29411/12 = 2,450 per week. and then 2450/40 = 61.274. So, we would say that this employer pays an average weekly wage 61.28. From there, we aggregate to all employees. Lastly, we break it down by geography, industry, and ownership.

In short, they want 3 values that we produce; unemployment rate, total nonfarm jobs, and average weekly wage. Each data set (LAUS(unemployment rates), CES (jobs number). and QCEW (employment by industry) respectively ) has preliminary and final values. For example.. July 12, 2024.. the preliminary LAUS values for June 2024 come out. Alongside that, may 2024 final values come out. In the politician's case, he wanted to know the LAUS data for May 2024 (which is now final). It changed.. may 2024 prelim data is not the same as may 2024 final data. The reason for the different numbers is unemployment insurance claims data that takes time to come about. He asked why they were different.. and I explained it much the same way as I am doing now. The response was, "So you are fudging the numbers.. change it to make things look better". I am not going to transcribe the rest of his comments but in short, it became clear that he did not know the difference between preliminary and final.

Well, a TROLL is a TROLL regardless of severity. I love how according to him... everyone in Florida is smarter, more moral, and earns more than any other place in the world.. I love my current state of residence, NV, but also know its not perfect.

He is just a garden variety internet forum troll. He is actually pretty tame in comparison to those on the last forum I was on.. liberalforum.net

yeah, not sure why I am doing this. it is either too early and therefore meaningless or its not.. pretty simple.

Patience is on low today. Had to explain to a certain politician today the difference between preliminary and final data. going to need a drink tonight

For it meaning nothing.. you come to Biden's defense rather quickly.. that is as partisan as one can be.

If Biden was out ahead clearly.. you would be saying something to the tilt of "biden is going to win.. its just a formality". Its ok, you are a partisan type.

I brought this up because at a legislative meeting.. some not-to-be-named older politician brought this up. He does not like Nevada's current relaxed policies concerning marijuana.

Still a bit early to be declaring a winner. Lets see what these polls say in Late sept/early oct.