Canada slips into recession as economy stalls

[WestCanMan]

Carney was elected by saying "Elbows up", now he's saying "Make America Great Again!" 😂

Edited Saturday at 10:38 PM by WestCanMan

[blackbird]

21 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

That’s a lie. From the very beginning of Trump’s trade war we have been told the economy is at risk. Every expected the recession to start a year ago and the economy has been remarkably resilient 

 

Did you even the article you linked?  Right at the top it says: “but some economists weighing in on the latest real gross domestic product results Friday argued that weakness may not qualify as a recession.”  
 

And:

 

 “Don’t get me wrong, the economy has struggled to gain any meaningful traction over the last year ... but for now, we wouldn’t necessarily call it a technical recession,” said TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao.

He said the decline in real GDP last quarter was still basically zero, and could easily be revised up in future StatCan reports.”

 

And

”BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients that there was “no sense sugar-coating this sour result, as the economy has clearly been struggling to grow since the start of the trade war.”

 

And 

“While there will be plenty of debate over whether this constitutes a recession (we would say ‘no, not really’), there is little debate that the economy has struggled to make any headway over the past year amid the ongoing trade conflict,” Porter said.

 

And

 

 

Higher imports of gold dragged down activity in the first quarter, and exports were mildly negative. Weak resale activity in the housing market also hurt the first-quarter figures.

Business capital investment meanwhile fell for a fifth consecutive quarter, which Ercolao largely chalked up to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. It’s hard for many firms to draw up spending plans without clarity on what that trade relationship will look like in the foreseeable future, he said.

Drags on output in the last quarter were offset by a ramp-up in businesses accumulating inventory and higher household spending.

Many economists also gauge the breadth and depth of a downturn before declaring a formal recession.
 

And

 

On a per-capita basis, real GDP rose 0.2 per cent in the first three months of the year as Canada’s population shrank for a second quarter in a row.
 

And 

The last two quarterly contractions are mostly due to real GDP declines in October and March. Growth was either flat or modestly positive for the four months in between.
 

And

Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note that the “trade-induced” technical recession was likely already over as rising oil and gas activity mean the second quarter of 2026 is tracking for a solid rebound.

I know you Carney Derangement Syndrome types are rooting against Canada and hoping for the worst just so you can “pwn the libs”  but there’s more optimism than doom and gloom in that report  

 

 

In the past eleven years under the Liberals, Canada has gone to the dogs.  Home prices doubled or more, costs of everything rose deamatically, millions more people depend on food banks, tent cities everwhere, crime really bad, endless catch and release, daily extortion shootings, widespread gangs from India, vast numbers of immigrants living off generous government handouts that citizens don't receive to name a few.  Health care failing.  Also 1.8 Trillion in debt and federal deficit around 70 billion.  Thank the Liberals.

[Goddess]

Geiger Capital:

"Western governments told their people that we needed to mass import low-skilled foreigners to keep the economy strong. Well now they've done it, and their economies are still weak. It's because of their policies. They forever changed the demographics of their nation for nothing."

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Goddess said:

Geiger Capital:

"Western governments told their people that we needed to mass import low-skilled foreigners to keep the economy strong. Well now they've done it, and their economies are still weak. It's because of their policies. They forever changed the demographics of their nation for nothing."

The thing that kills me is they keep lying and lying and their supporters still believe the next lie

The budget will balance itself and will be balanced by the end of 2019 - complete and utter lie

We're investing in infrastructure projects and it will return far more than we are paying into it- Complete and utter lie

We're investing in battery plants across Canada and the billions and billions were spending will pave the way to the future - Complete and utter lie

Inflation is transitory - Complete and utter lie

I can get a deal with trump by July- Complete and utter lie

It's not reaaaaaly a recession - Complete and utter lie

But each and every time their supporters suck it up as the gospel and will go on to believe the next one without question

[Goddess]

18 hours ago, CdnFox said:

But each and every time their supporters suck it up as the gospel and will go on to believe the next one without question

Stockholm Syndrome?

[paxamericana]

45 minutes ago, Goddess said:

Stockholm Syndrome?

It’s a Canadian phenomenon. Claims abusive relationship with America, proceeds to self sabotage and now begging to be taken back. Really could have done this the easy way when orange man offered statehood.

Edited Sunday at 11:05 PM by paxamericana

[eyeball]

20 hours ago, Goddess said:

Western governments told their people that we needed to mass import low-skilled foreigners to keep the economy strong

They didn't say anything about low-skilled people to keep the economy strong, it was to maintain the workforce our social programs especially pension and health systems needed to keep them adequately funded.

Meanwhile thousands upon thousands of qualified foreign doctors and nurses are flipping burgers and driving for Uber because governments refuse to certify them. And it's not just doctors and nurses.

According to data and policy studies from organizations like the C.D. Howe Institute and Statistics Canada, thousands of internationally trained professionals in various regulated industries face a systemic mismatch between their education and the Canadian labour market.

Who's side are you on again?

Edited Sunday at 11:13 PM by eyeball

[Goddess]

19 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Meanwhile thousands upon thousands of qualified foreign doctors and nurses are flipping burgers and driving for Uber because governments refuse to certify them.

They need to be verified.

We've already found quite a few practicing here who had fake degrees.

One million fake educational certificates: India uncovers the biggest forgery operation in history

Education Verification: Lessons from the 36,000 Fake Degrees

Massive India-Wide Fake Degree Scam Cracked: Over 100,000 Certificates Seized | arabtimes

From Ponnani to Australia: Tale of a fake degree racket uncovered by Kerala Police in courier trail bust

24 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Who's side are you on again?

No one else is looking out for me.  I'm on my own side.

Instead of $100 million Canadian tax dollars going to Indian students, we should be helping Canadian young people.

Canada is not a charity and tax dollars don't grow on trees, despite what you and your Liberal buddies think.

[Moonlight Graham]

8 hours ago, eyeball said:

Meanwhile thousands upon thousands of qualified foreign doctors and nurses are flipping burgers and driving for Uber because governments refuse to certify them. And it's not just doctors and nurses.

They aren't "qualified".  Many are working in the healthcare field as they take courses to certify under Canadian standards.  They aren't victims.  Only a fool would want a Nigerian or Afghan-educated doctor or surgeon to treat them without modem western education and training standards.

[Moonlight Graham]

On 5/29/2026 at 2:54 PM, Goddess said:

Business, industry and investment communities have been telling the Liberals for 11 years now that the policy environment in Canada is chasing it all away, but somehow the Libs have convinced enough Canadians that it's all Trump's fault or Poilievre's fault. 🤪

Provide evidence this is Carney's/Liberals fault.  Not UCP trash.  I don't want your analysis because you're not an economist. I want links to news sources, studies etc saying it's due to their policies.

[Moonlight Graham]

If you complain about too many temporary foreign students/workers (which i did)  and the government quickly reduces their numbers by 60%(which I'm glad) you also can't complain about a recession that follows because GDP has dropped.

I'm glad housing prices have fallen.

[Barquentine]

How much foreign investment is scared away by 2 provinces flirting with separation?

[SpankyMcFarland]

5 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

They aren't "qualified".  Many are working in the healthcare field as they take courses to certify under Canadian standards.  They aren't victims.  Only a fool would want a Nigerian or Afghan-educated doctor or surgeon to treat them without modem western education and training standards.

Why not assess a person on their individual skills and knowledge? At the moment, the system makes it very difficult for foreigners to a) sit Canadian exams and b) even access the courses they are required to do to sit them. On multiple occasions I have seen truly excellent foreign candidates turned down from training programs for weak reasons that have little to do with how the candidate would turn out, eg, time out of clinical practice for an application to a pathology residency. They are going to spend the rest of their careers out of clinical practice for crying out loud. We have set up a Catch 22 situation where after the person has arrived here they will often become ineligible on this requirement because they are being blocked from further training. The Canadian training is good but it is not miraculously good. Much of this knowledge can be acquired online if a person is sufficiently motivated to do that. What we need is a genuine effort by the medical establishment, including the medical schools, to help IMGs get to the standard required by greatly increasing the training spots available and facilitating online learning wherever possible. Perhaps IMGs can pay for such training? I’d say many of them would be open to suggestions. Of course, more doctors will mean more costs. I’m afraid this means the private sector will have to expand if we want to cut those ER waiting times and not bust our health budgets at the same time. 

[eyeball]

6 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

They aren't "qualified". 

That's just not true according to what I've read. The vast majority have been fully trained and qualified by recognized schools of medicine. Their inability to practice in Canada is the result of structural bottlenecks, institutional gatekeeping, and bureaucratic hurdles within the Canadian immigration and healthcare systems.

No doubt there's also a strong headwind coming right wingers who don't want brown people touching them.

[Goddess]

7 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

They aren't "qualified".  Many are working in the healthcare field as they take courses to certify under Canadian standards.  They aren't victims.  Only a fool would want a Nigerian or Afghan-educated doctor or surgeon to treat them without modem western education and training standards.

So, this happened to a good friend of mine about 25 years ago, but I think it's something to consider.

Her 4th baby, she needed a c-section.  She was assigned an OBGYN.  Didn't think too much about it, c-sections are pretty routine.

Got into the OR, got the spinal, the doc started cutting without checking whether the spinal took or not.  She immediately screamed "I can feel that!"  He told her, "Too bad, we have to keep going now."  They held her down and she had a c-section without anesthesia, screaming the whole time.

They sued, it went to court and what came out in court and what came out in the case was that he was from a Muslim country and he basically did that to her because he hates women.

She was very traumatized by it and was never the same after.  Lost her bubbly personality and isolated a lot.

It's not just about skills & knowledge.

She won the court case, BTW.

 

Edited Monday at 03:14 PM by Goddess

[Goddess]

8 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Provide evidence this is Carney's/Liberals fault. 

You're kidding, right?

[BeaverFever]

Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada's economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure

GDP per person is once again on the rise

Canadian economic data made international news Friday as the latest reading of gross domestic product earned mentions from everyone from investing guru Mohamed El-Erian to the Wall Street Journal. 
 

Canada’s GDP doesn’t often attract such attention, but this time a second quarter of contraction raised the red flag of “technical recession.”

Article content

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seized on the data, accusing Prime Minister Mark Carney of being the only G7 leader to send his country’s economy into recession and calling for an emergency debate.

…

Luckily, economists say there is more to a recession than just two quarters of negative growth — namely the 3 Ds — depth, duration and dispersion.

Article content

This decline is not even close on depth — amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, “barely a scratch in GDP terms,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note.

Article content

In the past three Canadians recessions, outside the pandemic, the average decline at the weakest point was 5.3 per cent.

Article content

Nor is weakness widespread across the economy. The trade war has hit manufacturing, trade and real estate hard, but other sectors like finance, resources and health care are growing, said Kavcic.

Article content

Though exports are down, domestic demand has been climbing, and consumer spending has continued to rise.

Article content

Duration, he concedes, is getting close. The Canadian economy has been soft since the start of the trade war in early 2025, posting three negative quarters out of four.

However, there is one key variable in this equation that should not be overlooked and when viewed through its lens paints a very different picture of Canada’s economy, say economists — population.
 

Since the federal government cracked down on immigration after the post-pandemic boom, population has actually declined in Canada over the past two quarters.

Article content

So while the overall GDP reading is slipping, GDP per person is on the rise, a welcome change from a few years back when the per capita measure was nose-diving.

Article content

GDP per capita fell by almost 2.5 per cent in just over a year in 2022 and 2023, and plunged again in 2025, even as headline GDP was growing. The latest data showed GDP per person picked up by an annualized 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.

Article content

“That’s a better outcome for how individual households experience the economic backdrop compared to, for example, the ostensibly respectable GDP increases in 2023/2024 that actually represented persistent declines on a per-capita basis,” said Janzen.

Article content

 

 

But as economists at National Bank of Canada said Friday: “We are not ready to bandy about the ‘R’ word, at least not yet.”
 

https://financialpost.com/news/canada-recession-fears-overblown

 

[BeaverFever]

1 minute ago, BeaverFever said:

Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada's economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure

GDP per person is once again on the rise

Canadian economic data made international news Friday as the latest reading of gross domestic product earned mentions from everyone from investing guru Mohamed El-Erian to the Wall Street Journal. 
 

 

Canada’s GDP doesn’t often attract such attention, but this time a second quarter of contraction raised the red flag of “technical recession.”

Article content

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seized on the data, accusing Prime Minister Mark Carney of being the only G7 leader to send his country’s economy into recession and calling for an emergency debate.

…

Luckily, economists say there is more to a recession than just two quarters of negative growth — namely the 3 Ds — depth, duration and dispersion.

Article content

This decline is not even close on depth — amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, “barely a scratch in GDP terms,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note.

Article content

In the past three Canadians recessions, outside the pandemic, the average decline at the weakest point was 5.3 per cent.

Article content

Nor is weakness widespread across the economy. The trade war has hit manufacturing, trade and real estate hard, but other sectors like finance, resources and health care are growing, said Kavcic.

Article content

Though exports are down, domestic demand has been climbing, and consumer spending has continued to rise.

Article content

Duration, he concedes, is getting close. The Canadian economy has been soft since the start of the trade war in early 2025, posting three negative quarters out of four.

However, there is one key variable in this equation that should not be overlooked and when viewed through its lens paints a very different picture of Canada’s economy, say economists — population.
 

 

Since the federal government cracked down on immigration after the post-pandemic boom, population has actually declined in Canada over the past two quarters.

Article content

So while the overall GDP reading is slipping, GDP per person is on the rise, a welcome change from a few years back when the per capita measure was nose-diving.

Article content

GDP per capita fell by almost 2.5 per cent in just over a year in 2022 and 2023, and plunged again in 2025, even as headline GDP was growing. The latest data showed GDP per person picked up by an annualized 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.

Article content

“That’s a better outcome for how individual households experience the economic backdrop compared to, for example, the ostensibly respectable GDP increases in 2023/2024 that actually represented persistent declines on a per-capita basis,” said Janzen.

Article content

 

 

But as economists at National Bank of Canada said Friday: “We are not ready to bandy about the ‘R’ word, at least not yet.”
 

https://financialpost.com/news/canada-recession-fears-overblown

 

Wow you know it must be true when even a right-wing outlet like NP is debunking Conservative theatrics. Here’s another one:

 

As Conservatives seize on signs of recession, economists say not so fast
 

A back-to-back contraction in the Canadian economy has sparked a debate in Ottawa and on Bay Street about whether the country is in a recession, handing political ammunition to opposition critics of the federal government while drawing a skeptical response from economists who say it’s too early to call.

On Friday, Statistics Canada reported that the economy contracted 0.1 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter, after a 1-per-cent annualized decline in the fourth quarter of last year.

Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP is sometimes called a “technical recession” – although the term is often dismissed by economists, who tend to look at the depth, breadth and duration of a downturn before using the R-word.

Geopolitical, trade risks pose rising threat to financial stability, Bank of Canada warns

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre jumped on the data, sending a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday demanding an emergency debate in Parliament on what he called the “Liberal recession.”

Economists on Bay Street, by contrast, mostly concluded that the numbers don’t amount to a recession – at least not yet.

“Time will ultimately tell, but data on the ground don’t have the markings of a true recession in Canada,” Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a note to clients on Friday. …

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-weak-economic-numbers-spur-recession-debate-in-ottawa-on-bay-street/

 

[Legato]

9 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada's economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure

GDP per person is once again on the rise

Canadian economic data made international news Friday as the latest reading of gross domestic product earned mentions from everyone from investing guru Mohamed El-Erian to the Wall Street Journal. 
 

 

Canada’s GDP doesn’t often attract such attention, but this time a second quarter of contraction raised the red flag of “technical recession.”

Article content

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seized on the data, accusing Prime Minister Mark Carney of being the only G7 leader to send his country’s economy into recession and calling for an emergency debate.

…

Luckily, economists say there is more to a recession than just two quarters of negative growth — namely the 3 Ds — depth, duration and dispersion.

Article content

This decline is not even close on depth — amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, “barely a scratch in GDP terms,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note.

Article content

In the past three Canadians recessions, outside the pandemic, the average decline at the weakest point was 5.3 per cent.

Article content

Nor is weakness widespread across the economy. The trade war has hit manufacturing, trade and real estate hard, but other sectors like finance, resources and health care are growing, said Kavcic.

Article content

Though exports are down, domestic demand has been climbing, and consumer spending has continued to rise.

Article content

Duration, he concedes, is getting close. The Canadian economy has been soft since the start of the trade war in early 2025, posting three negative quarters out of four.

However, there is one key variable in this equation that should not be overlooked and when viewed through its lens paints a very different picture of Canada’s economy, say economists — population.
 

 

Since the federal government cracked down on immigration after the post-pandemic boom, population has actually declined in Canada over the past two quarters.

Article content

So while the overall GDP reading is slipping, GDP per person is on the rise, a welcome change from a few years back when the per capita measure was nose-diving.

Article content

GDP per capita fell by almost 2.5 per cent in just over a year in 2022 and 2023, and plunged again in 2025, even as headline GDP was growing. The latest data showed GDP per person picked up by an annualized 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.

Article content

“That’s a better outcome for how individual households experience the economic backdrop compared to, for example, the ostensibly respectable GDP increases in 2023/2024 that actually represented persistent declines on a per-capita basis,” said Janzen.

Article content

 

 

But as economists at National Bank of Canada said Friday: “We are not ready to bandy about the ‘R’ word, at least not yet.”
 

https://financialpost.com/news/canada-recession-fears-overblown

 

Yup good article explaining why we are in a recession.

Plus a little correction......

Consumer Spending: While household spending has continued to see modest increases, the momentum has eased as financial strain and high interest rates have shifted consumers toward purchasing essential services (like rent and financial services) rather than goods. 

Business Investment: Non-residential structures, equipment, and machinery investment have fallen as companies navigate an environment of economic uncertainty. 

Housing Market: Residential investment has continued to decline, driven by slow resale activity and softer housing turnover

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Legato said:

Yup good article explaining why we are in a recession.

Plus a little correction......

Consumer Spending: While household spending has continued to see modest increases, the momentum has eased as financial strain and high interest rates have shifted consumers toward purchasing essential services (like rent and financial services) rather than goods. 

Business Investment: Non-residential structures, equipment, and machinery investment have fallen as companies navigate an environment of economic uncertainty. 

Housing Market: Residential investment has continued to decline, driven by slow resale activity and softer housing turnover

It's a recession. It's not the 'good' kind of recession, our economy is completey in the tank and no, this is not good news 

And the population only fell if you assume everyone who was told to leave the country actually did. 

The efforts of the lefties to spin the hell out of this is insane  

[BeaverFever]

What I find hilarious is that the same people who say Harper can’t be blamed for his ACTUAL recession because he can’t create a magic bubble to protect Canada from a global economic crisis say Carney and Trudeau are responsible for NOT ACTUAL recessions because they didn’t somehow create a magic bubble to protect Canada from global economic crises. 
 

The rule of thumb for the right is when there’s an economic disaster, or terrorist attack under Republicans or conservatives “the government doesn’t control these things they can do their best after the fact”  Example: the economic disaster and wave of terrorist attacks that occurred during the Bush Jr years. Now they’ve added a nee one for the current economic disaster caused by Trump’s trade war and Iran debacle: “Americans have to sacrifice for the greater good”

But when it’s a liberal or democrat then its “they are in charge, the buck stops with them! They caused it or they should have stopped it, how dare the government force people to sacrifice for the greater good”. 
 

Total hypocrisy. 

The Trump-made global economic disaster and trade war on Canada is OF COURSE going to have negative consequences for Canada  pretending otherwise is foolish as is pretending PP has a magic wand that would solve all our problems and Canada into an economic paradise  

 

[Legato]

Just now, CdnFox said:

It's a recession. It's not the 'good' kind of recession, our economy is completey in the tank and no, this is not good news 

And the population only fell if you assume everyone who was told to leave the country actually did. 

The efforts of the lefties to spin the hell out of this is insane  

Yeah but no but yeah but no but Beave' must be real dizzy.

When is a spade not a spade.

[BeaverFever]

4 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

It's a recession. It's not the 'good' kind of recession, our economy is completey in the tank and no, this is not good news 

And the population only fell if you assume everyone who was told to leave the country actually did. 

The efforts of the lefties to spin the hell out of this is insane  

Nation Post is lefties now?  LOL that’s new.   As usual you exaggerate everything for political reasons 

[Legato]

1 minute ago, BeaverFever said:

What I find hilarious is that the same people who say Harper can’t be blamed for his ACTUAL recession because he can’t create a magic bubble to protect Canada from a global economic crisis say Carney and Trudeau are responsible for NOT ACTUAL recessions because they didn’t somehow create a magic bubble to protect Canada from global economic crises. 
 

The rule of thumb for the right is when there’s an economic disaster, or terrorist attack under Republicans or conservatives “the government doesn’t control these things they can do their best after the fact”  Example: the economic disaster and wave of terrorist attacks that occurred during the Bush Jr years. Now they’ve added a nee one for the current economic disaster caused by Trump’s trade war and Iran debacle: “Americans have to sacrifice for the greater good”

But when it’s a liberal or democrat then its “they are in charge, the buck stops with them! They caused it or they should have stopped it, how dare the government force people to sacrifice for the greater good”. 
 

Total hypocrisy. 

The Trump-made global economic disaster and trade war on Canada is OF COURSE going to have negative consequences for Canada  pretending otherwise is foolish as is pretending PP has a magic wand that would solve all our problems and Canada into an economic paradise  

 

We were up the creek before Trump, so yes it's Trudeau and the Carney.

Now please step down from the Dillon Wagoner spindizzy generator.

[Goddess]

GTA mortgage delinquency rate now up 10x off the 2022 lows for Royal Bank.

Obviously, this is Poilievre's fault.