The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway

[BeaverFever]

The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway

If Trump overturns the 2024 election, here’s how it could happen.
 

Dozens of interviews with people deeply familiar or involved with the election process point to a clear consensus: Not only could Trump make a second attempt at overturning an election he loses, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork.

….
 

The answer, according to lawmakers, congressional investigators, party operatives, election officials and constitutional law experts, goes something like this:

— He will deepen distrust in the election results by making unsupported or hyperbolic claims of widespread voter fraud and mounting longshot lawsuits challenging enough ballots to flip the outcome in key states.

— He will lean on friendly county and state officials to resist certifying election results — a futile errand that would nevertheless fuel a campaign to put pressure on elected Republican legislators in statehouses and Congress.

— He will call on allies in GOP-controlled swing-state legislatures to appoint “alternate” presidential electors.

— He will rely on congressional Republicans to endorse these alternate electors — or at least reject Democratic electors — when they convene to certify the outcome.

— He will try to ensure Harris is denied 270 votes in the Electoral College, sending the election to the House, where Republicans are likely to have the numbers to choose Trump as the next president.

Some of the necessary ingredients for this extraordinary campaign are in place. Trump has already embarked on a clear mission to stoke as much uncertainty as possible about the results of the election. He claims that the only way he can lose to Harris is if Democrats cheat — despite no evidence that any significant fraud occurred in 2020 or is underway in 2024. Dutiful allies have amplified these messages. And many of the officials who stood in Trump’s path four years ago have been ousted or retired, ceding power to more compliant Trump-aligned successors. 
 

…

It’s possible Trump and his allies won’t make a sustained effort to overturn his election defeat. An overwhelming Harris victory would make it harder for Trump to rally Republicans to his side. (If Trump wins, no one expects a comparable effort by Democrats to subvert the election.) But to a person, election observers, elected leaders and some of Trump’s own allies agree on one operating premise: On election night, no matter what the results show, how many votes remain uncounted and how many advisers tell him otherwise, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner.

And from there, he could embark on a risky but plausible challenge to overturn the legitimate election results and install himself in the White House. Here’s how it could happen.
 

Breeding Distrust

What Trump will do first is what he’s already doing: stoking deep, unfounded doubts about the integrity of the election. Trump has spent weeks promoting unsupported claims of mass voter fraud by Democrats, suggesting they’re illegally registering thousands of non-citizens to vote and soliciting unlawful votes from foreigners. He’s also raised doubts about the Postal Service’s ability to process mail ballots, even as he’s worked to reverse Democrats’ edge in the format…

…

 

Pressuring County and State Election Boards

…

In 2020, Trump leaned on state and county election officials, pressuring them to refuse to certify the results. He personally called officials in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan but made little headway.

Since that failed attempt, Trump allies have won seats on county and state election boards across the swing states likely to decide the 2024 contest. He recently identified by name three members of the Georgia State Elections Board at a rally, calling them “pitbulls” fighting for his “victory.” (In recent weeks, the board adopted a slew of changes to election procedures that state officials warned could wreak havoc on the counting of votes on Election Day, including requiring poll workers to hand-count ballots within hours of the polls closing. Democrats are suing to block some of those policies, and earlier this week, a state judge struck down the changes as unconstitutional.)

In this new atmosphere, it’s easy to envision a perilous scenario:

A key swing state takes several days to finish counting votes. Harris edges Trump by a few thousand ballots, appearing to clinch the election. Trump then blankets the state with ads exhorting officials to “stop the steal,” sends top allies to rail daily outside counting facilities about a crooked process, files a blizzard of litigation urging judges to throw out ballots being counted after Election Day and spreads claims that the vote was swung by non-citizens. Threats rain down on election officials and vote counters, with protests driving up the local and national temperature. Then, Trump allies on a handful of county election boards resist certification, threatening to disenfranchise thousands of voters and disrupt the state’s effort to finalize an accurate count.…

…

The Role of Lawsuits

…

In 2020, as the Trump campaign’s lawsuits failed or stalled, he increasingly pinned his hopes on fringe lawyers who mounted improbable, easily refuted claims of fraud — a bid to keep his election hopes alive months after Election Day.

In those cases, the points won or lost in the courtroom are beside the point. In 2020, as courts turned aside Trump and his allies’ litany of lawsuits, they became fuel for his attacks on the legal system and traditional processes for resolving disputes, further evidence for his supporters that the only path to power was through statehouses and Congress.

…

Convincing Republican-led state legislatures to appoint alternate electors to send to Congress

 

…

The Constitution empowers state legislatures to deliver the electoral votes for their state in whatever manner they choose. And every swing state has, by law, chosen to designate their presidential electors according to the results of the statewide popular vote.

In 2020, however, some Trump allies argued that legislatures have unilateral, incontestable power to change their minds — and could simply claim lack of faith in the results to snatch the decision back for themselves. Conservative attorneys like John Eastman and Kenneth Chesebro, who have both been criminally charged for their roles in the 2020 election process, developed this theory and lobbied for such an outcome. Under their theories, state legislatures would send their own competing slate of electors to Congress — alongside the slates submitted by governors — and urge Congress to choose between them. Trump increasingly leaned on these fringe ideas as his traditional routes to power began to close.

At the time, Republican-led legislatures in six swing states rebuffed Trump’s entreaties, though some showed signs of softening after weeks of pressure. Some of the leaders who resisted him — like Arizona’s then-House Speaker Rusty Bowers — are no longer in office.

In hindsight, the resistance of Republican state legislators may have been the most significant bulwark against Trump’s bid to subvert the election in 2020. After they balked, the Trump campaign assembled informal slates of electors and had them sign paperwork claiming to be the legitimate slate.

Then-Vice President Mike Pence, who presided over Congress’ counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, refused to consider those fake slates of electors because they hadn’t been endorsed by a government authority. But a little-noticed memo sent by Pence’s top legal adviser suggested Pence’s choice might have been different — in fact, it may have had to be — if legislatures had endorsed the pro-Trump slates….

 

Presidential electors meet in an atmosphere of threats

 

State election officials across the country say they are already bracing for the possibility of unruly protests and violence at every phase of the election process — but especially when it’s time for the electors to meet. Given the tight deadlines set out in state and federal law to finalize and deliver election results, disruptions that cause state officials or electors to miss key steps in the process could cast a cloud over the results.
…

Civil unrest could have a direct impact on election procedures before Dec. 17 as well. Special counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Trump included a text conversation between an unnamed Trump campaign aide and an ally inside a Detroit ballot-counting facility. The campaign aide, described as one of Trump’s alleged co-conspirators, encouraged the other to “make them riot” after he was told the scene was a tinderbox. This year, law enforcement at all levels have described unprecedented levels of threats targeting every phase of the process. These days, the Justice Department routinely announces arrests of people sending vile messages to lawmakers, election officials and judges.
 

Persuading a GOP-led Congress to endorse Trump’s electors and spurn Harris’ set

Even if they manage to mount challenges, Republicans will not have a chance at overturning the election results unless they have a majority in the House. In the event of a Democratic House takeover, the House would brush aside challenges to Harris’ electors and, if necessary, shoot down alternate slates.

Likewise, if Democrats hold the Senate, they’ll easily approve the slates of electors for Harris. And even if Republicans narrowly take the upper chamber, at least a few key GOP senators seem certain to resist any effort to depart from the state certified results. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), for example, helped author the Electoral Count Act reforms meant to prevent a repeat of Trump’s 2020 gambit.

But if Republicans retain the House and affirm their grip on key state legislative chambers in the swing states, a slim and dangerous path remains.

Leading up to Jan. 6, Trump and his allies would be engaged in a relentless pressure campaign to convince House GOP lawmakers to block Harris’ victory. The existence of alternate slates of electors sent by Republican-led legislatures would be a tool in their arsenal.

Some Democrats are nervous that even if they narrowly appear to take back the House, enough races could remain locked in recounts or legal protest to ensure that Republicans hold the majority when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2025.

Though Congress was the target of violence after the 2020 election, federal officials have taken pains to avoid a recurrence. The Biden administration recently labeled the Jan. 6, 2025, session of Congress a “National Special Security Event,” which unlocks resources akin to the Super Bowl or presidential inauguration. Expect the U.S. Capitol to look like a fortress soon after Election Day.

…

The final move to seize power at the joint session of Congress

 

…It begins with whoever is the speaker of the House. Though Rep. Mike Johnson holds the job today, he’s no lock to win renewed support from his restive Republican conference. Trump would once again likely play kingmaker, with the power to extract promises for his endorsement. In a scenario in which Trump is still challenging the election, a commitment to side with him during the Jan. 6 session of Congress would be at the top of his list.

…

If Johnson believes, like Eastman, that the laws governing the joint session are unconstitutional, he could assert unprecedented authority to affect the process — all under the guise of following the Constitution. That could include taking steps to ensure that pro-Trump electors embraced by state legislatures get an up-or-down vote, even if they conflict with slates endorsed by governors. It could include permitting hours of floor time to air theories of voter fraud, while holding the presidency in limbo. It could also include lobbying allies to reject pro-Harris electors in order to prevent either candidate from receiving 270 Electoral College votes. And it could also include simply gaveling the House out of session to prevent the joint session from continuing. Each move would likely trigger intense legal battles, putting the courts — and most likely the Supreme Court — in the position of deciding how to resolve unprecedented power plays by the most prominent actors in government.

This phase would mark the culmination of Trump’s ceaseless campaign to cast doubt on any election defeat and lay the groundwork for an alternative reality. After all, Republicans would say, there’s real uncertainty about the outcomes in the swing states, with millions of voters convinced Trump was the rightful winner — the very uncertainty Trump had been stoking all along.
 

….

The House Picks a President

If Republicans, through the speaker’s maneuvering, prevent either candidate from garnering an Electoral College majority, it would trigger what’s known as a contingent election in the House, with each state delegation getting a single vote. Republicans control 26 state delegations to Democrats’ 22, with two others evenly split. The GOP is favored to maintain that advantage, and Republicans would almost certainly choose to elect Trump president.

…

Ultimately, a handful of key pieces would have to fall into place to prevent the certification of a Harris victory: It would require a good election night for Republicans and significant complicity among Trump allies at virtually every level of government.

And it would be a brazen display of power that would outstrip the multifaceted gambit of 2020.

“Then you’re really getting into the realm of lawlessness,” said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA. “If people are going to be willing to just ignore the law and declare someone the winner, then you’re talking about a real coup.”
 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/20/trump-overturn-2024-election-plan-00184103?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic%2Fu.s.politics

[Matthew]

It's only a matter of time. Certainly Team Trump tried to pull some major shenanigans last time and they didn't succeed.

But someday a state run by a Republican Legislature and a Republican governor will oversee a presidential election in their state won by a Democrat. Instead of allowing the Democratic Party electors to go vote for them, they will pass a new law to make it so that their state legislature will assign a slate of republican electors to go instead. Constitutionally there is nothing upholding the state elections for President.

When this happens the Republican voters will get behind this as obvious and reasonable and pretend that democracy was never very American after all, and that freedom is best upheld by not allowing people to vote for the president.

[Legato]

Oh dear, the crying and wailing and gnashing of teeth.

[SkyHigh]

1 hour ago, BeaverFever said:

 

The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway

If Trump overturns the 2024 election, here’s how it could happen.
 

Dozens of interviews with people deeply familiar or involved with the election process point to a clear consensus: Not only could Trump make a second attempt at overturning an election he loses, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork.

….
 

The answer, according to lawmakers, congressional investigators, party operatives, election officials and constitutional law experts, goes something like this:

— He will deepen distrust in the election results by making unsupported or hyperbolic claims of widespread voter fraud and mounting longshot lawsuits challenging enough ballots to flip the outcome in key states.

— He will lean on friendly county and state officials to resist certifying election results — a futile errand that would nevertheless fuel a campaign to put pressure on elected Republican legislators in statehouses and Congress.

— He will call on allies in GOP-controlled swing-state legislatures to appoint “alternate” presidential electors.

— He will rely on congressional Republicans to endorse these alternate electors — or at least reject Democratic electors — when they convene to certify the outcome.

— He will try to ensure Harris is denied 270 votes in the Electoral College, sending the election to the House, where Republicans are likely to have the numbers to choose Trump as the next president.

Some of the necessary ingredients for this extraordinary campaign are in place. Trump has already embarked on a clear mission to stoke as much uncertainty as possible about the results of the election. He claims that the only way he can lose to Harris is if Democrats cheat — despite no evidence that any significant fraud occurred in 2020 or is underway in 2024. Dutiful allies have amplified these messages. And many of the officials who stood in Trump’s path four years ago have been ousted or retired, ceding power to more compliant Trump-aligned successors. 
 

 

…

It’s possible Trump and his allies won’t make a sustained effort to overturn his election defeat. An overwhelming Harris victory would make it harder for Trump to rally Republicans to his side. (If Trump wins, no one expects a comparable effort by Democrats to subvert the election.) But to a person, election observers, elected leaders and some of Trump’s own allies agree on one operating premise: On election night, no matter what the results show, how many votes remain uncounted and how many advisers tell him otherwise, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner.

And from there, he could embark on a risky but plausible challenge to overturn the legitimate election results and install himself in the White House. Here’s how it could happen.
 

Breeding Distrust

What Trump will do first is what he’s already doing: stoking deep, unfounded doubts about the integrity of the election. Trump has spent weeks promoting unsupported claims of mass voter fraud by Democrats, suggesting they’re illegally registering thousands of non-citizens to vote and soliciting unlawful votes from foreigners. He’s also raised doubts about the Postal Service’s ability to process mail ballots, even as he’s worked to reverse Democrats’ edge in the format…

…

 

Pressuring County and State Election Boards

…

In 2020, Trump leaned on state and county election officials, pressuring them to refuse to certify the results. He personally called officials in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan but made little headway.

Since that failed attempt, Trump allies have won seats on county and state election boards across the swing states likely to decide the 2024 contest. He recently identified by name three members of the Georgia State Elections Board at a rally, calling them “pitbulls” fighting for his “victory.” (In recent weeks, the board adopted a slew of changes to election procedures that state officials warned could wreak havoc on the counting of votes on Election Day, including requiring poll workers to hand-count ballots within hours of the polls closing. Democrats are suing to block some of those policies, and earlier this week, a state judge struck down the changes as unconstitutional.)

In this new atmosphere, it’s easy to envision a perilous scenario:

A key swing state takes several days to finish counting votes. Harris edges Trump by a few thousand ballots, appearing to clinch the election. Trump then blankets the state with ads exhorting officials to “stop the steal,” sends top allies to rail daily outside counting facilities about a crooked process, files a blizzard of litigation urging judges to throw out ballots being counted after Election Day and spreads claims that the vote was swung by non-citizens. Threats rain down on election officials and vote counters, with protests driving up the local and national temperature. Then, Trump allies on a handful of county election boards resist certification, threatening to disenfranchise thousands of voters and disrupt the state’s effort to finalize an accurate count.…

…

 

The Role of Lawsuits

…

 

In 2020, as the Trump campaign’s lawsuits failed or stalled, he increasingly pinned his hopes on fringe lawyers who mounted improbable, easily refuted claims of fraud — a bid to keep his election hopes alive months after Election Day.

In those cases, the points won or lost in the courtroom are beside the point. In 2020, as courts turned aside Trump and his allies’ litany of lawsuits, they became fuel for his attacks on the legal system and traditional processes for resolving disputes, further evidence for his supporters that the only path to power was through statehouses and Congress.

…

Convincing Republican-led state legislatures to appoint alternate electors to send to Congress

 

…

The Constitution empowers state legislatures to deliver the electoral votes for their state in whatever manner they choose. And every swing state has, by law, chosen to designate their presidential electors according to the results of the statewide popular vote.

In 2020, however, some Trump allies argued that legislatures have unilateral, incontestable power to change their minds — and could simply claim lack of faith in the results to snatch the decision back for themselves. Conservative attorneys like John Eastman and Kenneth Chesebro, who have both been criminally charged for their roles in the 2020 election process, developed this theory and lobbied for such an outcome. Under their theories, state legislatures would send their own competing slate of electors to Congress — alongside the slates submitted by governors — and urge Congress to choose between them. Trump increasingly leaned on these fringe ideas as his traditional routes to power began to close.

At the time, Republican-led legislatures in six swing states rebuffed Trump’s entreaties, though some showed signs of softening after weeks of pressure. Some of the leaders who resisted him — like Arizona’s then-House Speaker Rusty Bowers — are no longer in office.

In hindsight, the resistance of Republican state legislators may have been the most significant bulwark against Trump’s bid to subvert the election in 2020. After they balked, the Trump campaign assembled informal slates of electors and had them sign paperwork claiming to be the legitimate slate.

Then-Vice President Mike Pence, who presided over Congress’ counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, refused to consider those fake slates of electors because they hadn’t been endorsed by a government authority. But a little-noticed memo sent by Pence’s top legal adviser suggested Pence’s choice might have been different — in fact, it may have had to be — if legislatures had endorsed the pro-Trump slates….

 

Presidential electors meet in an atmosphere of threats

 

State election officials across the country say they are already bracing for the possibility of unruly protests and violence at every phase of the election process — but especially when it’s time for the electors to meet. Given the tight deadlines set out in state and federal law to finalize and deliver election results, disruptions that cause state officials or electors to miss key steps in the process could cast a cloud over the results.
…

Civil unrest could have a direct impact on election procedures before Dec. 17 as well. Special counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Trump included a text conversation between an unnamed Trump campaign aide and an ally inside a Detroit ballot-counting facility. The campaign aide, described as one of Trump’s alleged co-conspirators, encouraged the other to “make them riot” after he was told the scene was a tinderbox. This year, law enforcement at all levels have described unprecedented levels of threats targeting every phase of the process. These days, the Justice Department routinely announces arrests of people sending vile messages to lawmakers, election officials and judges.
 

Persuading a GOP-led Congress to endorse Trump’s electors and spurn Harris’ set

 

Even if they manage to mount challenges, Republicans will not have a chance at overturning the election results unless they have a majority in the House. In the event of a Democratic House takeover, the House would brush aside challenges to Harris’ electors and, if necessary, shoot down alternate slates.

Likewise, if Democrats hold the Senate, they’ll easily approve the slates of electors for Harris. And even if Republicans narrowly take the upper chamber, at least a few key GOP senators seem certain to resist any effort to depart from the state certified results. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), for example, helped author the Electoral Count Act reforms meant to prevent a repeat of Trump’s 2020 gambit.

But if Republicans retain the House and affirm their grip on key state legislative chambers in the swing states, a slim and dangerous path remains.

Leading up to Jan. 6, Trump and his allies would be engaged in a relentless pressure campaign to convince House GOP lawmakers to block Harris’ victory. The existence of alternate slates of electors sent by Republican-led legislatures would be a tool in their arsenal.

Some Democrats are nervous that even if they narrowly appear to take back the House, enough races could remain locked in recounts or legal protest to ensure that Republicans hold the majority when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2025.

Though Congress was the target of violence after the 2020 election, federal officials have taken pains to avoid a recurrence. The Biden administration recently labeled the Jan. 6, 2025, session of Congress a “National Special Security Event,” which unlocks resources akin to the Super Bowl or presidential inauguration. Expect the U.S. Capitol to look like a fortress soon after Election Day.

…

The final move to seize power at the joint session of Congress

 

…It begins with whoever is the speaker of the House. Though Rep. Mike Johnson holds the job today, he’s no lock to win renewed support from his restive Republican conference. Trump would once again likely play kingmaker, with the power to extract promises for his endorsement. In a scenario in which Trump is still challenging the election, a commitment to side with him during the Jan. 6 session of Congress would be at the top of his list.

…

 

If Johnson believes, like Eastman, that the laws governing the joint session are unconstitutional, he could assert unprecedented authority to affect the process — all under the guise of following the Constitution. That could include taking steps to ensure that pro-Trump electors embraced by state legislatures get an up-or-down vote, even if they conflict with slates endorsed by governors. It could include permitting hours of floor time to air theories of voter fraud, while holding the presidency in limbo. It could also include lobbying allies to reject pro-Harris electors in order to prevent either candidate from receiving 270 Electoral College votes. And it could also include simply gaveling the House out of session to prevent the joint session from continuing. Each move would likely trigger intense legal battles, putting the courts — and most likely the Supreme Court — in the position of deciding how to resolve unprecedented power plays by the most prominent actors in government.

This phase would mark the culmination of Trump’s ceaseless campaign to cast doubt on any election defeat and lay the groundwork for an alternative reality. After all, Republicans would say, there’s real uncertainty about the outcomes in the swing states, with millions of voters convinced Trump was the rightful winner — the very uncertainty Trump had been stoking all along.
 

….

The House Picks a President

If Republicans, through the speaker’s maneuvering, prevent either candidate from garnering an Electoral College majority, it would trigger what’s known as a contingent election in the House, with each state delegation getting a single vote. Republicans control 26 state delegations to Democrats’ 22, with two others evenly split. The GOP is favored to maintain that advantage, and Republicans would almost certainly choose to elect Trump president.

…

 

Ultimately, a handful of key pieces would have to fall into place to prevent the certification of a Harris victory: It would require a good election night for Republicans and significant complicity among Trump allies at virtually every level of government.

And it would be a brazen display of power that would outstrip the multifaceted gambit of 2020.

“Then you’re really getting into the realm of lawlessness,” said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA. “If people are going to be willing to just ignore the law and declare someone the winner, then you’re talking about a real coup.”
 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/20/trump-overturn-2024-election-plan-00184103?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic%2Fu.s.politics

I'm certainly no fan of Trump but this is a little much.

I think you'd be better served to focus on the møronic things he actually says and does instead of speculating on potential future maybes, that though possible, aren't really probable.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, BeaverFever said:

 

The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway

If Trump overturns the 2024 election, here’s how it could happen.
 

Dozens of interviews with people deeply familiar or involved with the election process point to a clear consensus: Not only could Trump make a second attempt at overturning an election he loses, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork.

….
 

The answer, according to lawmakers, congressional investigators, party operatives, election officials and constitutional law experts, goes something like this:

— He will deepen distrust in the election results by making unsupported or hyperbolic claims of widespread voter fraud and mounting longshot lawsuits challenging enough ballots to flip the outcome in key states.

— He will lean on friendly county and state officials to resist certifying election results — a futile errand that would nevertheless fuel a campaign to put pressure on elected Republican legislators in statehouses and Congress.

— He will call on allies in GOP-controlled swing-state legislatures to appoint “alternate” presidential electors.

— He will rely on congressional Republicans to endorse these alternate electors — or at least reject Democratic electors — when they convene to certify the outcome.

— He will try to ensure Harris is denied 270 votes in the Electoral College, sending the election to the House, where Republicans are likely to have the numbers to choose Trump as the next president.

Some of the necessary ingredients for this extraordinary campaign are in place. Trump has already embarked on a clear mission to stoke as much uncertainty as possible about the results of the election. He claims that the only way he can lose to Harris is if Democrats cheat — despite no evidence that any significant fraud occurred in 2020 or is underway in 2024. Dutiful allies have amplified these messages. And many of the officials who stood in Trump’s path four years ago have been ousted or retired, ceding power to more compliant Trump-aligned successors. 
 

 

…

It’s possible Trump and his allies won’t make a sustained effort to overturn his election defeat. An overwhelming Harris victory would make it harder for Trump to rally Republicans to his side. (If Trump wins, no one expects a comparable effort by Democrats to subvert the election.) But to a person, election observers, elected leaders and some of Trump’s own allies agree on one operating premise: On election night, no matter what the results show, how many votes remain uncounted and how many advisers tell him otherwise, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner.

And from there, he could embark on a risky but plausible challenge to overturn the legitimate election results and install himself in the White House. Here’s how it could happen.
 

Breeding Distrust

What Trump will do first is what he’s already doing: stoking deep, unfounded doubts about the integrity of the election. Trump has spent weeks promoting unsupported claims of mass voter fraud by Democrats, suggesting they’re illegally registering thousands of non-citizens to vote and soliciting unlawful votes from foreigners. He’s also raised doubts about the Postal Service’s ability to process mail ballots, even as he’s worked to reverse Democrats’ edge in the format…

…

 

Pressuring County and State Election Boards

…

In 2020, Trump leaned on state and county election officials, pressuring them to refuse to certify the results. He personally called officials in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan but made little headway.

Since that failed attempt, Trump allies have won seats on county and state election boards across the swing states likely to decide the 2024 contest. He recently identified by name three members of the Georgia State Elections Board at a rally, calling them “pitbulls” fighting for his “victory.” (In recent weeks, the board adopted a slew of changes to election procedures that state officials warned could wreak havoc on the counting of votes on Election Day, including requiring poll workers to hand-count ballots within hours of the polls closing. Democrats are suing to block some of those policies, and earlier this week, a state judge struck down the changes as unconstitutional.)

In this new atmosphere, it’s easy to envision a perilous scenario:

A key swing state takes several days to finish counting votes. Harris edges Trump by a few thousand ballots, appearing to clinch the election. Trump then blankets the state with ads exhorting officials to “stop the steal,” sends top allies to rail daily outside counting facilities about a crooked process, files a blizzard of litigation urging judges to throw out ballots being counted after Election Day and spreads claims that the vote was swung by non-citizens. Threats rain down on election officials and vote counters, with protests driving up the local and national temperature. Then, Trump allies on a handful of county election boards resist certification, threatening to disenfranchise thousands of voters and disrupt the state’s effort to finalize an accurate count.…

…

 

The Role of Lawsuits

…

 

In 2020, as the Trump campaign’s lawsuits failed or stalled, he increasingly pinned his hopes on fringe lawyers who mounted improbable, easily refuted claims of fraud — a bid to keep his election hopes alive months after Election Day.

In those cases, the points won or lost in the courtroom are beside the point. In 2020, as courts turned aside Trump and his allies’ litany of lawsuits, they became fuel for his attacks on the legal system and traditional processes for resolving disputes, further evidence for his supporters that the only path to power was through statehouses and Congress.

…

Convincing Republican-led state legislatures to appoint alternate electors to send to Congress

 

…

The Constitution empowers state legislatures to deliver the electoral votes for their state in whatever manner they choose. And every swing state has, by law, chosen to designate their presidential electors according to the results of the statewide popular vote.

In 2020, however, some Trump allies argued that legislatures have unilateral, incontestable power to change their minds — and could simply claim lack of faith in the results to snatch the decision back for themselves. Conservative attorneys like John Eastman and Kenneth Chesebro, who have both been criminally charged for their roles in the 2020 election process, developed this theory and lobbied for such an outcome. Under their theories, state legislatures would send their own competing slate of electors to Congress — alongside the slates submitted by governors — and urge Congress to choose between them. Trump increasingly leaned on these fringe ideas as his traditional routes to power began to close.

At the time, Republican-led legislatures in six swing states rebuffed Trump’s entreaties, though some showed signs of softening after weeks of pressure. Some of the leaders who resisted him — like Arizona’s then-House Speaker Rusty Bowers — are no longer in office.

In hindsight, the resistance of Republican state legislators may have been the most significant bulwark against Trump’s bid to subvert the election in 2020. After they balked, the Trump campaign assembled informal slates of electors and had them sign paperwork claiming to be the legitimate slate.

Then-Vice President Mike Pence, who presided over Congress’ counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, refused to consider those fake slates of electors because they hadn’t been endorsed by a government authority. But a little-noticed memo sent by Pence’s top legal adviser suggested Pence’s choice might have been different — in fact, it may have had to be — if legislatures had endorsed the pro-Trump slates….

 

Presidential electors meet in an atmosphere of threats

 

State election officials across the country say they are already bracing for the possibility of unruly protests and violence at every phase of the election process — but especially when it’s time for the electors to meet. Given the tight deadlines set out in state and federal law to finalize and deliver election results, disruptions that cause state officials or electors to miss key steps in the process could cast a cloud over the results.
…

Civil unrest could have a direct impact on election procedures before Dec. 17 as well. Special counsel Jack Smith’s evidence against Trump included a text conversation between an unnamed Trump campaign aide and an ally inside a Detroit ballot-counting facility. The campaign aide, described as one of Trump’s alleged co-conspirators, encouraged the other to “make them riot” after he was told the scene was a tinderbox. This year, law enforcement at all levels have described unprecedented levels of threats targeting every phase of the process. These days, the Justice Department routinely announces arrests of people sending vile messages to lawmakers, election officials and judges.
 

Persuading a GOP-led Congress to endorse Trump’s electors and spurn Harris’ set

 

Even if they manage to mount challenges, Republicans will not have a chance at overturning the election results unless they have a majority in the House. In the event of a Democratic House takeover, the House would brush aside challenges to Harris’ electors and, if necessary, shoot down alternate slates.

Likewise, if Democrats hold the Senate, they’ll easily approve the slates of electors for Harris. And even if Republicans narrowly take the upper chamber, at least a few key GOP senators seem certain to resist any effort to depart from the state certified results. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), for example, helped author the Electoral Count Act reforms meant to prevent a repeat of Trump’s 2020 gambit.

But if Republicans retain the House and affirm their grip on key state legislative chambers in the swing states, a slim and dangerous path remains.

Leading up to Jan. 6, Trump and his allies would be engaged in a relentless pressure campaign to convince House GOP lawmakers to block Harris’ victory. The existence of alternate slates of electors sent by Republican-led legislatures would be a tool in their arsenal.

Some Democrats are nervous that even if they narrowly appear to take back the House, enough races could remain locked in recounts or legal protest to ensure that Republicans hold the majority when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, 2025.

Though Congress was the target of violence after the 2020 election, federal officials have taken pains to avoid a recurrence. The Biden administration recently labeled the Jan. 6, 2025, session of Congress a “National Special Security Event,” which unlocks resources akin to the Super Bowl or presidential inauguration. Expect the U.S. Capitol to look like a fortress soon after Election Day.

…

The final move to seize power at the joint session of Congress

 

…It begins with whoever is the speaker of the House. Though Rep. Mike Johnson holds the job today, he’s no lock to win renewed support from his restive Republican conference. Trump would once again likely play kingmaker, with the power to extract promises for his endorsement. In a scenario in which Trump is still challenging the election, a commitment to side with him during the Jan. 6 session of Congress would be at the top of his list.

…

 

If Johnson believes, like Eastman, that the laws governing the joint session are unconstitutional, he could assert unprecedented authority to affect the process — all under the guise of following the Constitution. That could include taking steps to ensure that pro-Trump electors embraced by state legislatures get an up-or-down vote, even if they conflict with slates endorsed by governors. It could include permitting hours of floor time to air theories of voter fraud, while holding the presidency in limbo. It could also include lobbying allies to reject pro-Harris electors in order to prevent either candidate from receiving 270 Electoral College votes. And it could also include simply gaveling the House out of session to prevent the joint session from continuing. Each move would likely trigger intense legal battles, putting the courts — and most likely the Supreme Court — in the position of deciding how to resolve unprecedented power plays by the most prominent actors in government.

This phase would mark the culmination of Trump’s ceaseless campaign to cast doubt on any election defeat and lay the groundwork for an alternative reality. After all, Republicans would say, there’s real uncertainty about the outcomes in the swing states, with millions of voters convinced Trump was the rightful winner — the very uncertainty Trump had been stoking all along.
 

….

The House Picks a President

If Republicans, through the speaker’s maneuvering, prevent either candidate from garnering an Electoral College majority, it would trigger what’s known as a contingent election in the House, with each state delegation getting a single vote. Republicans control 26 state delegations to Democrats’ 22, with two others evenly split. The GOP is favored to maintain that advantage, and Republicans would almost certainly choose to elect Trump president.

…

 

Ultimately, a handful of key pieces would have to fall into place to prevent the certification of a Harris victory: It would require a good election night for Republicans and significant complicity among Trump allies at virtually every level of government.

And it would be a brazen display of power that would outstrip the multifaceted gambit of 2020.

“Then you’re really getting into the realm of lawlessness,” said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA. “If people are going to be willing to just ignore the law and declare someone the winner, then you’re talking about a real coup.”
 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/20/trump-overturn-2024-election-plan-00184103?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic%2Fu.s.politics

You know one of your biggest tells is that the longer your post is the more you know you are full of crap with it  

Well if trump does manage to take over the white house through illegal means, then we'll just have to take him out with the Jewish space lasers. I mean that's what they're there for

59 minutes ago, Matthew said:

It's only a matter of time. Certainly Team Trump tried to pull some major shenanigans last time and they didn't succeed.

But someday a state run by a Republican Legislature and a Republican governor will oversee a presidential election in their state won by a Democrat. Instead of allowing the Democratic Party electors to go vote for them, they will pass a new law to make it so that their state legislature will assign a slate of republican electors to go instead. Constitutionally there is nothing upholding the state elections for President.

When this happens the Republican voters will get behind this as obvious and reasonable and pretend that democracy was never very American after all, and that freedom is best upheld by not allowing people to vote for the president.

Sure.

This is why you're losing. Why do you people do this?

[CdnFox]

3 minutes ago, SkyHigh said:

I'm certainly no fan of Trump but this is a little much.

I think you'd be better served to focus on the møronic things he actually says and does instead of speculating on potential future maybes, that though possible, aren't really probable.

This is been my point like a thousand times! Are we seriously saying there isn't enough real and absolutely legitimate things to criticize trump over and we have to make up fake stuff?

I mean if that's the case maybe he should be president again.   But I think we all know that there are many of his previous activities which are absolutely true and well documented as well as potential flaws in his future plans (his actual ones, not the 2025 nonsense the dems are pushing) to keep the non-trump crowd making arguments for 2 elections. 

Now they just sound like "The boy who cried trump!"  And that plays in trump's favour. 

I just seriously believe this is a horrible horrible tactical error that the democrats have been making for over a year now.

[Hodad]

Yes, Trump absolutely will try to seize power if he loses the election. This isn't even a question--or even new information. They've been laying the groundwork for 4 years. 

And all of the MAGA "patriots" who pay lip service to the Constitution and to democratic principles are ready--eager--to let it happen. They will applaud it just as the lionize the Jan. 6 insurrectionists.

They have no honor, no decency and value nothing above power.

1 hour ago, SkyHigh said:

I'm certainly no fan of Trump but this is a little much.

I think you'd be better served to focus on the møronic things he actually says and does instead of speculating on potential future maybes, that though possible, aren't really probable.

I'm sorry, but how is this "a little much"? It's exactly what he already tried to do once. Why wouldn't we expect him to try again?

Edited October 21, 2024 by Hodad

[BeaverFever]

57 minutes ago, SkyHigh said:

I'm certainly no fan of Trump but this is a little much.

I think you'd be better served to focus on the møronic things he actually says and does instead of speculating on potential future maybes, that though possible, aren't really probable.

What do you mean aren’t probable?  He did or attempted all of these things mentioned n 2020. This article just describes how they’ll be refined for the current election. 

[BeaverFever]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

You know one of your biggest tells is that the longer your post is the more you know you are full of crap with it  

I know you like things to be short and simple and contain as little information as possible. But if you want to fool people into thinking you’re smart you shouldn’t complain about having to read, I only posted excerpts from the article instead of the full length out of kindness to you.    Everything described in that article is a version of what he tried in 2020. 
 

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

This is been my point like a thousand times! Are we seriously saying there isn't enough real and absolutely legitimate things to criticize trump over and we have to make up fake stuff?

I mean if that's the case maybe he should be president again.   But I think we all know that there are many of his previous activities which are absolutely true and well documented as well as potential flaws in his future plans (his actual ones, not the 2025 nonsense the dems are pushing) to keep the non-trump crowd making arguments for 2 elections. 

Now they just sound like "The boy who cried trump!"  And that plays in trump's favour. 

I just seriously believe this is a horrible horrible tactical error that the democrats have been making for over a year now.

It’s like you deleted the 2020 election from your memory. He did or tried all of the things described in the article in the last election.
 

Look we all know that next month he is going to claim he won no matter what the election outcome is.  And if the result is for Kamala we know he’s going to claim the vote is rigged and try to have himself named President. Does anyone really believe otherwise?  Do you want to bet actual money on it?

[User]

Holy crap you people are certifiably insane. 

This kind of stuff is so absurdly outlandish. 

[robosmith]

2 hours ago, Legato said:

Oh dear, the crying and wailing and gnashing of teeth.....

....is completely justified given Trump's desperation to stay out of jail.

[Moonlight Graham]

This is essentially what he did in 2020.  But he was POTUS and had his VP confirming the electoral college ballots in the Senate.  Harris is the VP now, she's not going to confirm fraudulent elector ballots in the Senate.

 

[BeaverFever]

51 minutes ago, User said:

Holy crap you people are certifiably insane. 

This kind of stuff is so absurdly outlandish. 

Its more or less what he did and tried in 2020 

[BeaverFever]

21 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

This is essentially what he did in 2020.  But he was POTUS and had his VP confirming the electoral college ballots in the Senate.  Harris is the VP now, she's not going to confirm fraudulent elector ballots in the Senate.

 

But the article suggests she may not have a choice if a GOP state legislature decides to endorse them 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, BeaverFever said:

I know you like things to be short and simple and contain as little information as possible.

LOL  i think the entire forum is laughing at you right now    Nobody has EVER accused me of having "too short' of a post  

1 hour ago, BeaverFever said:

It’s like you deleted the 2020 election from your memory. He did or tried all of the things described in the article in the last election.

and failed badly. And That was with his own vice president in place.

And further it wasn't exactly as they're describing it there. They've had to radically embellish to try and make it even sound vaguely possible that a democratic vice president who is also running against him would participate in that kind of a scam.

There is no chance. There was no chance last time it failed. And even if he HAD got pence to buy into it guaranteed it would be challenged immediately and fail. 

It's just not a thing. It's incredible that he would try it once but he's not going to try it again and if he did it would fail just does it failed the first time but it was his people in charge never mind now well Kamala would be that one that would have to sign off on it

[Matthew]

26 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

There was no chance last time it failed. And even if he HAD got pence to buy into it guaranteed it would be challenged immediately and fail. 

The pence certification vote was a long shot and probably wouldn't have worked. The scheme to replace electors is far more possible.

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, Matthew said:

The pence certification vote was a long shot and probably wouldn't have worked. The scheme to replace electors is far more possible.

One ties into the other. 

[myata]

Everyone knows what would happen when he looses: in the first month, three, six and so on. No need to guess anything because we have memory and the brains. Now the only decision one has to make is: do they want it to become the new normal, of the proud U.S. democracy? Indefinitely and for the posterity.

A simple question.

[BeaverFever]

6 hours ago, CdnFox said:

LOL  i think the entire forum is laughing at you right now    Nobody has EVER accused me of having "too short' of a post

I never said you have short posts. I said you demand OTHERS have short posts. Because you have a short attention span and think your opinions are more important than that of others   
 

6 hours ago, CdnFox said:

and failed badly. And That was with his own vice president in place.

And further it wasn't exactly as they're describing it there. They've had to radically embellish to try and make it even sound vaguely possible that a democratic vice president who is also running against him would participate in that kind of a scam.

1) The article does not “radically embellish” anything.  Give an example of what’s been embellished  The article basically says he will do everything the did last time, with some tweaks since republicans have had 4 years to prepare this time, which includes having positioned some 2020 election deniers as county election officials, in state legislatures etc 

2) The article clearly states that if he can get a state legislature to endorse his electors regardless of the vote results, then Kamala may have no choice but to certify them as there is constitutional requirement that the state honour the results of the popular vote.  Furthermore he’s had 4 years to groom and pressure Republicans in congress to refuse certification just as he did in 2020
 

3) Even if he can’t convince Kamala or congress to certify him as the winner he will of course say that the certification is “rigged” because Kamala in her role as VP is overseeing her own certification.  Even after it becomes clear he can’t become president will continue to delegitimize the election results and sow chaos…if he can’t be president nobody can.  
 

Do you honestly believe if he loses on November 5 he will gracefully concede defeat and support a peaceful transition of power?  If so let’s bet money on it. I’m serious…loser donates money to the GoFundMe account of the winner’s choice.  Last election I got sharmkan to donate $100 to Breonna Taylor’s GoDundMe over election denier bets. You wanna be next?

[User]

8 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

Its more or less what he did and tried in 2020 

Yes, which never stood any legal chance then either. This is the same absurd fear mongering. 

It is as absurd as saying Trump could declare himself King if he loses the election and IF everyone goes along with it, OMG, he would be a dictator over America. 

That IF is the big absurdity in the room. 

[Nationalist]

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

You know one of your biggest tells is that the longer your post is the more you know you are full of crap with it  

Well if trump does manage to take over the white house through illegal means, then we'll just have to take him out with the Jewish space lasers. I mean that's what they're there for

Sure.

This is why you're losing. Why do you people do this?

Because they are desperate. 

[gatomontes99]

TDS is exceptionally real.

[BeaverFever]

1 hour ago, User said:

Yes, which never stood any legal chance then either. This is the same absurd fear mongering. 

It is as absurd as saying Trump could declare himself King if he loses the election and IF everyone goes along with it, OMG, he would be a dictator over America. 

That IF is the big absurdity in the room. 

On election night he will declare himself the winner regardless of the vote count. Do you deny it?

Do you honestly believe he will not do exactly what he did in the past, like he learned his lesson last time and is sorry and promises to never do it again?  He and his minions are already spreading 2024 rigged election conspiracies. Amd they’ve already placed 2020 election deniers and some of his 2020 fake electors in key positions. You think that’s all because they plan to concede on election night if they don’t win?

I didn’t say he would declare himself king. If he doesn’t win he will do everything to make people believe the election results are  illegitimate and Kamala Harris is an illegitimate president, regardless of whether that results in Trump being named president or not. Conspiracy-fuelled constitutional crises, insurrections, government obstruction etc that plague the Harris presidency would be a suitable consolation prize because Trump’s fragile ego can’t admit that he’s not god-like perfection incarnate  

And it doesn’t require “everybody” to go along with it, just enough people in the right places  

 

Again I challenge any one of you MAGAs to put your money where your mouth is. Join me in a bet. Is every one of you a coward?

[User]

25 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

On election night he will declare himself the winner regardless of the vote count. Do you deny it?

There are several scenarios here:

-He wins, of course he declared himself winner

-A close race he barely loses, but there are clear issues and legal challenges to be made, just like anyone else does. 

-Harris clearly wins, almost certainly Trump bows out

27 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

Do you honestly believe he will not do exactly what he did in the past, like he learned his lesson last time and is sorry and promises to never do it again?  He and his minions are already spreading 2024 rigged election conspiracies. Amd they’ve already placed 2020 election deniers and some of his 2020 fake electors in key positions. You think that’s all because they plan to concede on election night if they don’t win?

Will he pursue legal challenges in a tightly contested race? Of course. Just like everyone does. 

Just like you supported and defended Gore and still claim that Gore should have won... 

The issue is, can he simply install himself as ruler of America? No. There is no path to doing that any more than him just asserting it now and doing it now. 

It is just silly fear-mongering. 

29 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

I didn’t say he would declare himself king.

No, I was making a point that your argument is no more outlandishly possible than if he does just declare himself King and it will work IF everyone goes along with it. 

30 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

And it doesn’t require “everybody” to go along with it, just enough people in the right places  

Sigh... yeah, there is that IF again, its the same absurd IF as if he declares himself King, he doesn't need "everybody" just enough people... *facepalm*

 

[Nationalist]

12 hours ago, BeaverFever said:

What do you mean aren’t probable?  He did or attempted all of these things mentioned n 2020. This article just describes how they’ll be refined for the current election. 

The way it's going, Trump will be the next POTUS.

Enjoy that.