Maybe Trump Won The Debate

[gatomontes99]

I felt like Trump missed so many opportunities last night to just crush Harris. Because he missed on those opportunities, I felt like it was a push. She certainly didn't say anything substantive and neither of them said any thing devastating. But I am partisan and I had expectations. The nonpartisans don't seem to agree with me.

The #1 issue is the economy. Going into the debate, Trump was leading on that issue. CNN did a flash poll and this was the result:

Trump went up among viewers of the debate. Not a lot, but it is a tight race and small percentages can make a big difference.

Harris went into the night needing to introduce herself to voters. Up to 30% of those polled said they didnt know enough about her. Here is how some post debate, false, micro polls came out:

Quote

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/

Reuters interviewed 10 people who were still unsure how they were going to vote in the Nov. 5 election before they watched the debate. Six said afterward they would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him. Three said they would now back Harris and one was still unsure how he would vote.

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/undecided-voters-react-debate.html

Keilah Miller, 34, who lives in Milwaukee, grew intrigued by Ms. Harris too. Ms. Miller said she had voted Democratic in past presidential elections but decided to stop voting altogether about a year ago. Her own situation, and that of other Black women in Milwaukee, had not improved, she said.

On Tuesday, she felt nudged unexpectedly toward Mr. Trump.

“Trump’s pitch was a little more convincing than hers,” Ms. Miller said. “I guess I’m leaning more on his facts than her vision.”

Ms. Miller said that, while her heart pulls her to Ms. Harris’s potentially history-making candidacy, she finds herself thinking fondly of her old life.

“When Trump was in office — not going to lie — I was living way better,” she said. “I’ve never been so down as in the past four years. It’s been so hard for me.”

So, I was apparently wrong. I think Trump could have done better and I probably expected Harris to do worse, but that's not how independents and undecided voters tracked.

 

[myata]

Maybe cows can fly. When reason and reality fly out the brain, what couldn't be possible, in it?

[TreeBeard]

52 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Trump went up among viewers

+/- 5.3% margin of error.   Do you understand what that means?  
 

What does it mean that Trump went up 2%, or Harris went down 2%, when the margin of error is larger than 2%?

[herbie]

2 hours ago, myata said:

Maybe cows can fly.

I was going to say pigs....

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, myata said:

Maybe cows can fly. When reason and reality fly out the brain, what couldn't be possible, in it?

None of us can say, none of the rest of us live in your fantasy world. 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

I felt like Trump missed so many opportunities last night to just crush Harris. Because he missed on those opportunities, I felt like it was a push. She certainly didn't say anything substantive and neither of them said any thing devastating. But I am partisan and I had expectations. The nonpartisans don't seem to agree with me.

The #1 issue is the economy. Going into the debate, Trump was leading on that issue. CNN did a flash poll and this was the result:

Trump went up among viewers of the debate. Not a lot, but it is a tight race and small percentages can make a big difference.

Harris went into the night needing to introduce herself to voters. Up to 30% of those polled said they didnt know enough about her. Here is how some post debate, false, micro polls came out:

So, I was apparently wrong. I think Trump could have done better and I probably expected Harris to do worse, but that's not how independents and undecided voters tracked.

 

It takes about a week for the actual effect of the debates to filter through the rotors and for the poles to start to really reflect it. So we obviously won't know until next Monday or so.

But you do raise an interesting point. Usually when people say that someone lost or won the debate they're referring to gotcha moments and zingers. I think harris did win in the sense that she looked more presidential, and more composed.

But the takeaways that people start reflecting on two or three or four days later are often very different. People may very well start thinking about whether or not it's a good idea to dump more free money into the economy as they see that as one of the reasons that inflation ran rampant in the past. They may question how you can tax the rich and cut taxes in the poor at the same time and have it work. They may question her resolve on the Mexican border.

So in the long run you're correct in the sense that the policies she announced may very well be seen in the negative light even though she may have done well in the debate. Will know in a few days

[myata]

27 minutes ago, herbie said:

I was going to say pigs....

Bring it on!.. where's the limit?

[Deluge]

2 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

I felt like Trump missed so many opportunities last night to just crush Harris. Because he missed on those opportunities, I felt like it was a push. She certainly didn't say anything substantive and neither of them said any thing devastating. But I am partisan and I had expectations. The nonpartisans don't seem to agree with me.

The #1 issue is the economy. Going into the debate, Trump was leading on that issue. CNN did a flash poll and this was the result:

Trump went up among viewers of the debate. Not a lot, but it is a tight race and small percentages can make a big difference.

Harris went into the night needing to introduce herself to voters. Up to 30% of those polled said they didnt know enough about her. Here is how some post debate, false, micro polls came out:

So, I was apparently wrong. I think Trump could have done better and I probably expected Harris to do worse, but that's not how independents and undecided voters tracked.

 

He had his moments, but I agree: he could've crushed her at multiple points. 

[herbie]

3 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

I felt like Trump missed so many opportunities

What opportunity? To paraphrase Winston Churchill

Never before in human history has anyone lied so much, so badly, for so long.

The fool was played like a fiddle.

[Nationalist]

3 hours ago, myata said:

Maybe cows can fly. When reason and reality fly out the brain, what couldn't be possible, in it?

Yes well you and your winged cows live in Lalaland.

[Dougie93]

3 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

I felt like Trump missed so many opportunities last night to just crush Harris. Because he missed on those opportunities, I felt like it was a push. She certainly didn't say anything substantive and neither of them said any thing devastating. But I am partisan and I had expectations. The nonpartisans don't seem to agree with me.

The #1 issue is the economy. Going into the debate, Trump was leading on that issue. CNN did a flash poll and this was the result:

Trump went up among viewers of the debate. Not a lot, but it is a tight race and small percentages can make a big difference.

Harris went into the night needing to introduce herself to voters. Up to 30% of those polled said they didnt know enough about her. Here is how some post debate, false, micro polls came out:

So, I was apparently wrong. I think Trump could have done better and I probably expected Harris to do worse, but that's not how independents and undecided voters tracked.

I would suggest that the win for Trump is that the debate was a wash, it's not going to decide anything

[gatomontes99]

16 minutes ago, herbie said:

What opportunity? To paraphrase Winston Churchill

Never before in human history has anyone lied so much, so badly, for so long.

The fool was played like a fiddle.

Exactly. She lied in almost every answer. She brought up the Charlottesville lie, the bloodbath lie, this crazy notion he will ban abortions nationwide, she lied about jobs, she misled about COVID, she lied about where she was on J6, he should have brought up the 13 service members that died and so on. That's just what I can remember. I'm sure if I watched it again and took notes, it'd be a much longer list.

[gatomontes99]

15 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I would suggest that the win for Trump is that the debate was a wash, it's not going to decide anything

And that is a valid point. In the end, she did not inform anyone as to what her policies are and that needed to be her number one goal. She also lost the flash polls on immigration and the economy. Aka the top 2 issues of the election.

Everyone should note there are virtually no Harris soundbites on social media or the news today. There are a few for Trump.

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

And that is a valid point. In the end, she did not inform anyone as to what her policies are and that needed to be her number one goal. She also lost the flash polls on immigration and the economy. Aka the top 2 issues of the election.

Everyone should note there are virtually no Harris soundbites on social media or the news today. There are a few for Trump.

it is a statistical tie in all the battleground states

when we know that the polls have always underestimated the Trump vote

the vote is baked in for all intents and purposes at this point

it really just comes to down to how accurate are these polls ?

based on the last two elections, the Democrats should be worried, because there is a silent Trump cohort

[Fluffypants]

8 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Exactly. She lied in almost every answer. She brought up the Charlottesville lie, the bloodbath lie, this crazy notion he will ban abortions nationwide, she lied about jobs, she misled about COVID, she lied about where she was on J6, he should have brought up the 13 service members that died and so on. That's just what I can remember. I'm sure if I watched it again and took notes, it'd be a much longer list.

And worst thing about it is the moderators let her get away with it while fact checking Trump every chance they got.

This is what overshadowed the debate. It was obvious who the moderators were rooting for.

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

And that is a valid point. In the end, she did not inform anyone as to what her policies are and that needed to be her number one goal. She also lost the flash polls on immigration and the economy. Aka the top 2 issues of the election.

Everyone should note there are virtually no Harris soundbites on social media or the news today. There are a few for Trump.

It's true but she did manage to look presidential, or at least more so than people have thought of her as, and she looked like she was 'standing up for herself' which was valuable. 

I think over all she had some positive results but as you say she missed the big stuff, and that's probably going to hurt her as the campaign drags out. 

[robosmith]

3 hours ago, herbie said:

I was going to say pigs....

Pigs do fly.