Right now, what Democrat has the best chance of beating Trump and how high are the odds?

[robosmith]

I say it's STILL Biden, the odds are slightly better than 50/50, and could get significantly better.

[herbie]

It shouldn't even be a question to ask.

A random homeless guy off the street should be able to beat Trump. You gotta be morally deficient to support Trump at this point.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, robosmith said:

I say it's STILL Biden, the odds are slightly better than 50/50, and could get significantly better.

We are well aware that your capacity for self-delusion is Olympic quality. And Vegas certainly doesn't agree with you, and they're a lot better at calculating the odds than you are  

Biden's chances are in about the 30s right now. It's always possible something could happen to trump or somehow some miracle occurs that makes his chances go up but it's really really unlikely.

The only other person they can legally put in is Kamala Harris. Honestly her chances would be about 35%, so really no improvement. She's been a horrible vice president.

After that a few other names have been floated around But currently none of them are pulling any better than Biden. They're all about six points or worse behind trump. Part of that is simply name recognition. Not everybody pays attention to politics and they're not always going to remember the names of people that aren't in the paper every day

And with only 4 months until the election there's really no time for them to get their face out there and get the kind of recognition they would need to be able to win.

I think that what they are going to do is focus on trying to save the senate and the Congress. That is their best defense right now, if they can somehow manage to elect enough senators and congressmen to block trump then they can limit his perceived damage at least until the midterms.

But to be honest it's not looking great for them in that department either

[West]

The Democrats need to clean house. I'd be willing to give up MAGA provided Democrats bring in a centrist candidate who doesn't want to imprison political rivals

[robosmith]

1 hour ago, herbie said:

It shouldn't even be a question to ask.

A random homeless guy off the street should be able to beat Trump. You gotta be morally deficient to support Trump at this point.

True, but the lack of an alternative with a higher probability of success, means there is no point to switching at this point. Although some polls say Harris has a greater chance of success right now, but I have a hard time believe that's real.

32 minutes ago, West said:

The Democrats need to clean house. I'd be willing to give up MAGA provided Democrats bring in a centrist candidate who doesn't want to imprison political rivals

So you're either denying the evidence against Trump or saying he should be able to break the law with impunity.

Which is it?

Edited July 3, 2024 by robosmith

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, West said:

The Democrats need to clean house. I'd be willing to give up MAGA provided Democrats bring in a centrist candidate who doesn't want to imprison political rivals

You might be stuck with maga for a bit i think  

What will be really interesting is whether or not this power struggle will be over for the next election, and whether they will have a good candidate to put forward or if bernie sanders is going to almost win it again. 

[West]

50 minutes ago, robosmith said:

True, but the lack of an alternative with a higher probability of success, means there is no point to switching at this point. Although some polls say Harris has a greater chance of success right now, but I have a hard time believe that's real.

So you're either denying the evidence against Trump or saying he should be able to break the law with impunity.

Which is it?

Correct. I believe the charges are bogus for the most part and the Supreme Court just ruled that the felony conviction in the Bragg case should be tossed as it wasn't unanimous. 

Donnie is close to 80 years old and been in business since his early 20s. No felony convictions until he runs as a Republican. To any honest person this would tell you all you need to know about these indictments

[Fluffypants]

For most of the potential candidates it would be like taking over a war that your side is losing without a military. They will have to start from scratch no cash, no staff and no infrastructure. The new candidate can't just take over from the old candidate.

I don't know how many candidates would even want to run this year under these circumstances.

 

[Legato]

1 hour ago, Fluffypants said:

For most of the potential candidates it would be like taking over a war that your side is losing without a military. They will have to start from scratch no cash, no staff and no infrastructure. The new candidate can't just take over from the old candidate.

I don't know how many candidates would even want to run this year under these circumstances.

 

....and to add to that, the Democrats have to pay for their lobotomies out of their own pockets.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Fluffypants said:

For most of the potential candidates it would be like taking over a war that your side is losing without a military. They will have to start from scratch no cash, no staff and no infrastructure. The new candidate can't just take over from the old candidate.

I don't know how many candidates would even want to run this year under these circumstances.

 

Exactly.  The money raised for biden-harris isn't transferrable. And they'd have to put together an entire platform - they can't just stand up and say "yeah - ima do what biden did and so vote for me!"   Biden was already losing this by a nose before the debate. 

It's just not going to happen. If they want another candidate their choice is Harris. And good luck with that. 

1 minute ago, Legato said:

....and to add to that, the Democrats have to pay for their lobotomies out of their own pockets.

No wonder they support socialized health insurance  

[Nationalist]

To answer the OP...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

Michelle Obama is the only potential the Demoncrats have.

Will she run?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/michelle-obama-former-first-lady-not-running-president-2024-rcna141767

Apparently not.

Oh well...enjoy the election.

[CdnFox]

12 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

To answer the OP...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

Michelle Obama is the only potential the Demoncrats have.

Will she run?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/michelle-obama-former-first-lady-not-running-president-2024-rcna141767

Apparently not.

Oh well...enjoy the election.

Man those front teeth.  That is straight up bever-porn right there. She could get through a tree in under 2 minutes. 

At any rate, she's be a fool to go right now even if it were possible.  IF she has aspirations along those lines the last thing she should do is sign on as captain to an already sinking ship.  Better to let the dems take the L  and run properly for the next election. 

[Nationalist]

15 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Man those front teeth.  That is straight up bever-porn right there. She could get through a tree in under 2 minutes. 

At any rate, she's be a fool to go right now even if it were possible.  IF she has aspirations along those lines the last thing she should do is sign on as captain to an already sinking ship.  Better to let the dems take the L  and run properly for the next election. 

Beave Obama...lol.

Edited July 3, 2024 by Nationalist

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Beave Obama...lol.

On the other hand now that I think about it she's not exactly all that eager apparently. So, some sort of muskrat maybe? IDK.

[ironstone]

Gavin Newsom's name comes up a lot even though he's running California into the ground. But someone else brought up the point that if he does step in, Kamal Harris is also from California. Not to mention how bad it would look if the Dems parachute in a slick white man ahead of Harris. This won't go over well with the party that wrote the book on identity politics. It's also been suggested that they could try to get her on the Supreme Court as a reward although that seems like a difficult proposition.

I know I'm the pessimist in here but I still think we shouldn't underestimate the size of the Dems bag of dirty tricks that they will use prior to and on election night.

[Nationalist]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

On the other hand now that I think about it she's not exactly all that eager apparently. So, some sort of muskrat maybe? IDK.

https://youtu.be/N2BuP-NcJ5Q

 

[impartialobserver]

The candidates that I have seen listed are. Of those, none can beat Trump. The one who would get the most Electoral Votes but still lose is Newsom. Newsom would win the standard blue states but probably lose in the "swing" states of Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona. 

Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
JB Pritzker
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttgieg
Andy Shapiro

[WestCanMan]

12 hours ago, herbie said:

It shouldn't even be a question to ask.

A random homeless guy off the street should be able to beat Trump. You gotta be morally deficient to support Trump at this point.

To be fair, all you're basing that on is CNN/MSNBC drivel and historical ignorance. 

FYI heads of state, sovereigns, earls, mormaers, dukes, and the like have philandered since time began and no one asks if they cheated on their wives: they're remembered for successfully protecting their kingdoms and what they built. A king's loyalty to his wife means nothing when the castle is overrun and all of the babies are being thrown from the walls.

Leftists constantly remind us that we're supposed to be accepting of gays, lesbians, throuples, trans people, swingers, polygamists, etc but "GOD FORBID THAT GUY IS A PHILANDERER!" 

FYI when a billionaire or a king, etc enters into a relationship they do so with a massive power imbalance, and on terms that most other men couldn't negotiate. While the herbies of this world will be happy to find one straggler that they get to keep all to themselves, the Leo DiCaprios and Wilt Chamberlains of the world will discard women that are out of your league multiple times per week. That's life. Get over it.

More important than whether or not Trump slept with a Playboy bunny is whether or not his son was getting millions of dollars from the Chinese gov't, like Hunter did. FYI it's far better for you if your "king" is busy sleeping with women from his own kingdom than doing clandestine, lucrative business deals with your geopolitical foes. I know that you'll deny that to the bitter end, but that's why you have the reputation that you do. You're ignorant, stupid, foolish and dishonest. 

[robosmith]

10 hours ago, West said:

Correct. I believe the charges are bogus for the most part and the Supreme Court just ruled that the felony conviction in the Bragg case should be tossed as it wasn't unanimous. 

Is ^this what they're telling you on FOS LIES now? LMAO

Of course it was unanimous as all criminal convictions MUST BE.

And the SCOTUS didn't even consider the Bragg verdict.

10 hours ago, West said:

Donnie is close to 80 years old and been in business since his early 20s. No felony convictions until he runs as a Republican. To any honest person this would tell you all you need to know about these indictments

For any heavily biased person ^this is the best and lamest excuse you could muster.

You obviously don't know Trump's history of greasing palms in NY to get away with murder (figurative murder).

3 hours ago, Fluffypants said:

For most of the potential candidates it would be like taking over a war that your side is losing without a military. They will have to start from scratch no cash, no staff and no infrastructure. The new candidate can't just take over from the old candidate.

I don't know how many candidates would even want to run this year under these circumstances.

 

From what I hear, Harris could take over with all the money that's been raised since she's part of the ticket.

1 hour ago, Legato said:

....and to add to that, the Democrats have to pay for their lobotomies out of their own pockets.

I'm sure you TROLLS would do it for free. LMAO

[robosmith]

1 hour ago, Nationalist said:

To answer the OP...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

Michelle Obama is the only potential the Demoncrats have.

Will she run?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/michelle-obama-former-first-lady-not-running-president-2024-rcna141767

Apparently not.

Oh well...enjoy the election.

She might when the alternative is Trump and his destruction of democracy.

37 minutes ago, ironstone said:

Gavin Newsom's name comes up a lot even though he's running California into the ground. But someone else brought up the point that if he does step in, Kamal Harris is also from California. Not to mention how bad it would look if the Dems parachute in a slick white man ahead of Harris. This won't go over well with the party that wrote the book on identity politics. It's also been suggested that they could try to get her on the Supreme Court as a reward although that seems like a difficult proposition.

I know I'm the pessimist in here but I still think we shouldn't underestimate the size of the Dems bag of dirty tricks that they will use prior to and on election night.

Really? What's wrong with CA? All I see is ads b1tching about $1.21 gas tax. LMAO

[robosmith]

19 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

To be fair, all you're basing that on is CNN/MSNBC drivel and historical ignorance. 

FYI heads of state, sovereigns, earls, mormaers, dukes, and the like have philandered since time began and no one asks if they cheated on their wives: they're remembered for successfully protecting their kingdoms and what they built. A king's loyalty to his wife means nothing when the castle is overrun and all of the babies are being thrown from the walls.

Leftists constantly remind us that we're supposed to be accepting of gays, lesbians, throuples, trans people, swingers, polygamists, etc but "GOD FORBID THAT GUY IS A PHILANDERER!" 

FYI when a billionaire or a king, etc enters into a relationship they do so with a massive power imbalance, and on terms that most other men couldn't negotiate. While the herbies of this world will be happy to find one straggler that they get to keep all to themselves, the Leo DiCaprios and Wilt Chamberlains of the world will discard women that are out of your league multiple times per week. That's life. Get over it.

More important than whether or not Trump slept with a Playboy bunny is whether or not his son was getting millions of dollars from the Chinese gov't, like Hunter did. FYI it's far better for you if your "king" is busy sleeping with women from his own kingdom than doing clandestine, lucrative business deals with your geopolitical foes. I know that you'll deny that to the bitter end, but that's why you have the reputation that you do. You're ignorant, stupid, foolish and dishonest. 

Thanks for your lesson in ANCIENT HISTORY. LMAO

[Nationalist]

2 minutes ago, robosmith said:

She might when the alternative is Trump and his destruction of democracy.

Well then you just run right over the Martha's Vineyard and convince Mrs. Hippo-Hips to give up her life of privilege and calm, for a 10 round fight with Trump.

Let me know how that turns out Mkaaayyy...?

[WestCanMan]

27 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Thanks for your lesson in ANCIENT HISTORY. LMAO

FYI it's not "ancient", it's current but, yes, it goes back to antiquity. Thanks for noticing at least that much. 

Nuance is lost on you, just go back to reading your favourite article: "Twump bad, Biden good, Biden smart, no inflation."

[ironstone]

40 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Really? What's wrong with CA? All I see is ads b1tching about $1.21 gas tax. LMAO

A bit of a crime problem, that brown stuff on the streets of major cities, very high taxes. Apart from that maybe it's a paradise?

 

[Deluge]

15 hours ago, robosmith said:

I say it's STILL Biden, the odds are slightly better than 50/50, and could get significantly better.

A chimpanzee would win the democrat nomination, so you just may be right about this. But we won't know for sure how stupid America is until we count the Biden votes.