CdnFox Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-all-im-doingis-working-and-paying-bills-why-some-are-leaving-canada/ “Government forecasts do not expect a recovery in living standards in Canada or B.C. until at least 2027,” according to a recent report by the organization. “Canada’s real [gross domestic product] is now around $1,000 per person, or around $2,500 per household, below what it was prior to the pandemic.” The council also ranks Canada’s pandemic economic recovery to be the fifth worst among the 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. “Canada is one of only eight advanced countries where average real incomes are lower than before the pandemic, as inflation outpaces growth in nominal incomes, the report said. Welp - so much for 'its global it's not local' as far as canada's problems go. The big issue here is the people who are leaving are the most skilled and talented and entrepreneurial. Poorer and less skilled people have a harder time being able to 'escape'. We're basically a filter at this point - all kinds of stuff moves here and then the good stuff leaves and we're left with what's left. So our workforce also suffers - even if our total numbers go up our average skill set goes down. ANd in fact we've been tanking when it comes to gdp per capita for some time. BTW - here's our GDP compared to others based on 3 important metrics. We.. uhhh... we actually drop off the bottom of the chart before the second metric. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 13 hours ago, CdnFox said: Welp - so much for 'its global it's not local' as far as canada's problems go. Inflation was/is global. Canada's economic laggardness is a problem we've had for decades, and that Trudeau has managed to make worse. I don't think anyone ever argued that this was a global problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 48 minutes ago, Moonbox said: Canada's economic laggardness is a problem we've had for decades, and that Trudeau has managed to make worse. I like that we *seem* to be starting to discuss actual economic METRICS. This is nothing but an evolutionary milestone. BUT... we have to find some metrics that make sense first. If GDP per person were a good one - and I'm saying it's not - then we would be several times more wealthy in a real sense than a few generations ago. That doesn't seem right. I'm going to work on resolving the GINI coefficient with real GDP over the next little while and I'll post what I find. Happy Moon Year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Moonbox said: Inflation was/is global. It isn't. It was at the very start to a degree but even that debate is long long past. ALL the banks have come out at this point and said it's immigration and gov't spending mostly and has been for some time. And again, this really does show that. The gdp of other countries adjusted for costs and hours worked is insanely higher than ours, our costs are out of control compared to others. There's just no argument here. Our inflation is far higher than it should be and was for all of 2023 at the very least and much if not all of 2022. Had spending been cut early on after the pandemic by even 3 percent and had we not had the immigration we have then we would have had next to no inflation above target and very little interest rate increases either. It's not global. Even if you want to argue that the initial spike was (which would be 50 percent wrong but lets say it isn't), that is long since not true any more. As this chart shows. the effect of inflation on our country is grossly grossly out of whack with the majority of the rest of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Simple question - what is Canada's imflation compared to other countries ? Just nudging the discussion along 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said: I like that we *seem* to be starting to discuss actual economic METRICS. This is nothing but an evolutionary milestone. BUT... we have to find some metrics that make sense first. If GDP per person were a good one - and I'm saying it's not - then we would be several times more wealthy in a real sense than a few generations ago. That doesn't seem right. I'm going to work on resolving the GINI coefficient with real GDP over the next little while and I'll post what I find. Happy Moon Year Those of us who understand it are discussing it but i think you've got a few books ahead of you before you're going to be joining that discussion meaningfully to be honest. Your comments dont' suggest a wealth of knowledge. As to metrics they are all well known - you don't "Find" them. They're there. The trick is interpreting the tea leaves and the secret to that is don't fixate on any one thing. GDP is important but only a piece in the puzzle. It must be taken in context with its' relationship to debt, population and other factors. And then you have to look at other indicators such as inflation and wage growth in various sectors etc. And gov't debt must be factored in becuase it reduces the actual tax efficiency - if half your tax raised goes to service the debt then obviously that has an impact on the maximum services a gov't can produce which impacts quality of life. There's no secret to uncover, all of this stuff is pretty well known. GINI is a smoke and mirrors factor that's primary purpose is to explain why rich people are bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 28 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said: Simple question - what is Canada's imflation compared to other countries ? Just nudging the discussion along 😀 Not really relevant in and of itself. You'd have to compare it to other factors. You'd also have to be more specific about the inflation and how you were calculating it which isn't a constant. But here you go - i already posted this but you probably missed it, this is probaby the closest "simple" answer. this is GDP per capita in relation to inflation and real dollars. Canada is one of the worst. we drop off the bottom of the chart almost immediately. Which means not only is inflation driving prices higher, our people are making less. It wouldn't be bad if inflation was up AND our people were more profitable. But that's not the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 28 minutes ago, CdnFox said: 1. Not really relevant in and of itself. You'd have to compare it to other factors. You'd also have to be more specific about the inflation and how you were calculating it which isn't a constant. But here you go - i already posted this but you probably missed it, this is probaby the closest "simple" answer. this is GDP per capita in relation to inflation and real dollars. Canada is one of the worst. we drop off the bottom of the chart almost immediately. Which means not only is inflation driving prices higher, our people are making less. It wouldn't be bad if inflation was up AND our people were more profitable. But that's not the case. 1. Ok, yes. 2. Ok, I don't accept GDP/person as being a good measure, and beyond that - what is the Y axis ? Ranking ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 44 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said: 2. Ok, I don't accept GDP/person as being a good measure, and beyond that - what is the Y axis ? Ranking ? Right is ranking by gdp per person initialy which is the first element they're measuring. Left side is ranking after adjustments. And i'm sorry but that's like saying "i don't accept the world is round". Well... i guess you can take that position but there's a rather huge volume of evidence to suggest you're wrong It's not the ONLY important indicator and as i've frequently said taking ANY indicator in complete isolation can very quickly lead to a misleading result but it's a very important one. It tends to indicate the ability of the people of a nation to have gov't services and to have disposable income. People cannot get paid more than they produce for long or the system falls apart, so how much they produce per capita has real and serious meaning. This is well recognized. You would normally look at a number of other factors adjusted for circumstances such as average wage increases vs inflation as well. That gets tricky around covid, the average wage shot up during the lockdowns and CERB, not because wages changed but because a lot of the lower paid jobs vanished as people went home so teh 'average' went up with them taken off the list. But you did say you wanted a 'quick' answer - that's the quick answer. When you look at our overall situation we fell short far more than almost every other country. I believe we something like the bottom 10 out of 38 developed nations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herbie Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 (edited) So go. Don't let the door hit you in the ass. Seems to be a lot of front page stories about people leaving because they think something's better somewhere else. Like it was a real problem or something. Edited January 3 by herbie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 58 minutes ago, herbie said: So go. Don't let the door hit you in the ass. Why, when we can just throw your kind out of power and crush you under our boots so we don't have to listen to you again? PP in 2025 baby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said: BUT... we have to find some metrics that make sense first. If GDP per person were a good one - and I'm saying it's not - then we would be several times more wealthy in a real sense than a few generations ago. That doesn't seem right. I think I understand what you're trying to say, but they are two separate arguments. Productivity doesn't automatically mean better standards of living for everyone, but if it doesn't then that's a problem of its own, with its own causes and effects. It's almost never a bad thing when your productivity is going up, and almost always a bad thing when it goes down. This is always relatively speaking and in comparison to peer nations as well. Why it matters is because it's a competitive global economy, and the effects of productivity gap aren't felt right away. You could, for example, prop up wages and living standards by lavish government spending for a time, but the long-term consequences could be disastrous. 1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said: I'm going to work on resolving the GINI coefficient with real GDP over the next little while and I'll post what I find. Happy Moon Year I wouldn't spend too much time on this. Fair warning. 😄 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cougar Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 (edited) 7 hours ago, Michael Hardner said: Simple question - what is Canada's imflation compared to other countries ? Just nudging the discussion along 😀 First of all, what is the meaning of "Canada's inflation RATE" and is this the inflation rate everyone in Canada is experiencing? You are asking us to compare one pile of s*t with another to come to a conclusion you like. Edited January 4 by cougar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perspektiv Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, herbie said: Seems to be a lot of front page stories about people leaving because they think something's better somewhere else. I've seen people from Ukraine return, due to how bad Canada was for some. I mean, Canada isn't a good country to be in as a newcomer, if you're not very well supported. Cost of living is insanely high. Wages they likely will make without Canadian experience, puts them in a position that they'll be struggling simply to stay afloat, or worse--homeless. Many are highly skilled, but due to the red tape, are often working menial jobs, making near or minimum wage, instead. I can see why so many who just got here, wouldn't want to last beyond 3-5 years. Personally, we're considering residing in Hong Kong. Insanely clean city, super safe. Low rent in places like Lamma Island: The allure? Low crime, insanely safe--clean. Tax haven, and very little red tape to start a business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cougar Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Perspektiv said: I've seen people from Ukraine return, due to how bad Canada was for some. I mean, Canada isn't a good country to be in as a newcomer, if you're not very well supported. Cost of living is insanely high. Wages they likely will make without Canadian experience, puts them in a position that they'll be struggling simply to stay afloat, or worse--homeless. Many are highly skilled, but due to the red tape, are often working menial jobs, making near or minimum wage, instead. I can see why so many who just got here, wouldn't want to last beyond 3-5 years. Personally, we're considering residing in Hong Kong. Insanely clean city, super safe. Low rent in places like Lamma Island: The allure? Low crime, insanely safe--clean. Tax haven, and very little red tape to start a business. I've heard the "red tape" argument before and somehow still don't believe it. If there is a job, there shoulld be someone doing it. Apparently Canada always had lots of low end - dead end jobs and not as many well paying jobs for people with skills as it has pretended to have. Good luck in Hong Kong. I personally, after 22 years here feel royally screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted January 4 Author Report Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, cougar said: I've heard the "red tape" argument before and somehow still don't believe it. If there is a job, there shoulld be someone doing it. Apparently Canada always had lots of low end - dead end jobs and not as many well paying jobs for people with skills as it has pretended to have. Good luck in Hong Kong. I personally, after 22 years here feel royally screwed. The problem is with certification. You need to be certified to do damn near anything these days - hell in BC you need to have certification and a license to sell cars for god's sake. So even if you used to live in britian and know everything there is to know about european cars and have tonnes of sales experience - if you come here you can't even sell cars without paying your money and taking the course and getting certified. So you can imagine what it's like for a plumber, or Physical engineer, or god help us all, a nurse. It's a major problem. The other problem (excluding language issues which is huge but lets set that aside) is history. A canadian born person has usually or at least often got a lot of track record by the time they are applying for jobs. Past work history and professional and personal reference etc. Newbs don't have that. Canadian employers prefer to hire canadians so newbs tend to take a lower pay for the first 10 years of their careers or so. Some never do quite catch up all the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perspektiv Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, CdnFox said: The problem is with certification. Also, many employers will want to see Canadian experience. One problem which is rather obvious as a newcomer to Canada as you mentioned. So by the time they get certified, struggle to find a job in their field, their pressing financial needs and pressures often take precedent. Many have families back home, that rely on them. Main reason why I have worked with people from countries like India, and was always shocked what careers they left behind, to come here to sweep floors, or work in a factory early on in my career. That Indian clerk serving you at the gas station, likely is over qualified for their position, but realistically knows and accepts this likely will be as good as it gets unless they desire to spend thousands to try to certify themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cougar Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Perspektiv said: That Indian clerk serving you at the gas station, likely is over qualified for their position, but realistically knows and accepts this likely will be as good as it gets unless they desire to spend thousands to try to certify themselves. Could be, but those Indians keep coming and you will find them in the most impossible and obscure places across Canada. If the type of work they do is way below them, why do they come and stay? They have established a huge community now in all places. We have a mini-India in Canada and it is a bigger country compared to the mini-China in Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myata Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 10 hours ago, cougar said: Apparently Canada always had lots of low end - dead end jobs and not as many well paying jobs for people with skills as it has pretended to have. If there was an overabundance of stable well-paying jobs in Canada; then why there never seems to be enough of those, or anywhere close to, for a broad-based, shared prosperity for those who are already here? What kind of a f@ing paradox is this, that we always need more and more, ever more but folks who are already here are getting ever poorer? How does this work exactly, and for who? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeitgeist Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 (edited) 20 hours ago, Michael Hardner said: Simple question - what is Canada's imflation compared to other countries ? Just nudging the discussion along 😀 A better question is, How have wages kept up with the rise in living costs in Canada relative to other countries? The US and many other countries have seen large wage gains at the same time the costs of goods and services have risen, which is inflationary but in a relatively good way. Productivity is also a very important metric, since if wages are rising without adding to the quality and/or quantity of production, that makes businesses poorer and less competitive, driving down wages in the long run. You want high value add products, high wages, competitive growing businesses, modest inflation, and strong purchasing power. Edited January 4 by Zeitgeist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, myata said: 1. If there was an overabundance of stable well-paying jobs in Canada; then why there never seems to be enough of those, or anywhere close to, for a broad-based, shared prosperity for those who are already here? 2. What kind of a f@ing paradox is this, that we always need more and more, ever more but folks who are already here are getting ever poorer? How does this work exactly, and for who? 1. It could be because they're skilled positions. 2. You have to look at a longer term than the last 5 years, and include demographic, skillset etc. to be sure of your assertion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perspektiv Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 14 hours ago, cougar said: If the type of work they do is way below them, why do they come and stay? My wife as an example was a high ranking executive with a corporation in the Philippines. She was pregnant with a child, and had bills to pay. The issue is similar in many of these countries. Under employment. Tons of jobs, but painstakingly difficult to earn a living with one. Additionally, you require obtuse levels of education, to flip a burger at McDonald's. So less than a phd or a bachelor's degree and don't waste your time. All for about 20 - 80$ per month. Entitlement is just not something that exists with that level of poverty facing so many. That's a western luxury. You literally don't have the luxury of choice. You're dealing with people who are doing what they have to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herbie Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Funny how we've all 'heard' about this. Some become LOTS and two more make ALL. Immigrants have always come here expecting to work their way up. Ones with "skills" should be wise enough to look at certification obstacles and cost of living before they head out. Even though certs for doctors and nurses are being redone to attract more, you don't expect to just waltz in skip all the seniority steps and start doing brain surgery at the top rate. Or management. I know many people who moved to the US, to the UK to Australia and some who came back again. If I'd had a $100K job offer, I might have too. Might have some sympathy if I didn't work alongside so many immigrants who worked beside us in then mines, the mills, assembly lines. But gotta live in Toronto or Vancouver? And moving to Hong Kong cuz Calgary is too expensive? Like I said, don't let the door hit you in the ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legato Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, herbie said: Like I said, don't let the door hit you in the ass. That would be nice, having a door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herbie Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Legato said: That would be nice, having a door. 100% better than a wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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