Warning to All MLW Members - Fear and the Cronavirus

[Iceni warrior]

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

These are just the numbers that are being reported for [people who died of covid]/[people known to have been infected who have died or fully recovered]. 

Countries intentionally underreported fatality rates in Britain, the US and other countries during the Spanish Flu (I've read that that's why they called it the Spanish Flu, there was the appearance that it was mostly affecting Spaniards because they were telling the truth about it), it's likely that China is as well. 

The chances of us hearing the truth is probably 0%, I can only speculate based on the numbers we get though.

My grandfather had two brothers that died of it as well.

 

It was called Spanish flu because Spain was the first country to talk about it openly in the media. There was a media blackout in the early stages in most countries and kept secret as a matter of national security.

[Dougie93]

I note that Westy is happy to fear monger so long as it about things he fears, such as the government lying to the public about a pandemic,  or when he called Justin Trudeau a "fascist"

[Dougie93]

28 minutes ago, Iceni warrior said:

It was called Spanish flu because Spain was the first country to talk about it openly in the media. There was a media blackout in the early stages in most countries and kept secret as a matter of national security.

Again, H1N1 Swine Flu came in two waves, the first wave they could ignore, because it wasn't that bad at all, but a novel virus is continuously mutating in the population, so many carriers that it is rapidly evolving, in 1919 it hit on something which really worked for it, and then the devastating second wave hit.

This is why the WHO is so gung-ho for extraordinary measures, the more it spreads, the more hosts it encounters, the more chance it has to evolve

Edited March 5, 2020 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

In terms of the disgusting ageist/ableist position of "oh well, it doesn't kill Real People, it only kills old people", I happen to like old people.

My mother is 75 and she has all the risk factors, I already watched my stepmother die by drowning in her own fluids, and it's a bad way to go.

 

[WestCanMan]

5 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

I'm simply doing the math, a 14%  death rate for diabetics is extremely high, most diabetics do not wish to be nudged into the grave, many of them are quite young.

Are 14% of the people who have diabetes over 60? 70? 

Honestly, over 70 with diabetes is pretty close to death.

 

[Dougie93]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

Are 14% of the people who have diabetes over 60? 70? 

Honestly, over 70 with diabetes is pretty close to death.

I don't throw people under the bus simply because they are old, I would in fact take extraordinary measures to save the old ladies of Canada, to include Her Majesty

[WestCanMan]

5 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

I note that Westy is happy to fear monger so long as it about things he fears, such as the government lying to the public about a pandemic,  or when he called Justin Trudeau a "fascist"

The government did lie to the public about the spanish flu. No one else is contesting that fact but you. 

And I didn't fear monger at all about Trudeau, I just told the truth.

If Trump unilaterally ordered the FBI to stand down in the Russian collusion investigation the leftists here would have a fit. If Trump gave $600M to "select Media outlets" and $700M to Fox News the leftists here would have a fit. If Trump decided that the GOP were going to police the internet the leftists here would have a fit. If Trump criminalized telling the truth about Christians the leftists here would have a fit. 

[WestCanMan]

6 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I don't throw people under the bus simply because they are old, I would in fact take extraordinary measures to save the old ladies of Canada, to include Her Majesty

Who did I throw under the bus?

I said that covid isn't comparable to the Spanish flu and I proved that. HEALTHY PEOPLE AE NOT DROPPING LIKE FLIES FROM COVID 19. That's true. I don't know why you can't handle that. 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Who did I throw under the bus?

I said that covid isn't comparable to the Spanish flu and I proved that. HEALTHY PEOPLE AE NOT DROPPING LIKE FLIES FROM COVID 19. That's true. I don't know why you can't handle that. 

None of that addresses anything I have asserted,  your assertions are the classic Strawman Fallacy.

You are the one who can't handle things, I haven't posted anything at you, you are the one chasing me around the thread prattling on like you've been wronged somehow.

[Dougie93]

Frankly,  the whole ageist/ableist line of "don't worry, only the old people die from it" is actually a defense mechanism for people who are in fact afraid, that is all part of the panic.

[WestCanMan]

4 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

None of that addresses anything I have asserted,  your assertions are the classic Strawman Fallacy.

You are the one who can't handle things, I haven't posted anything at you, you are the one chasing me around the thread prattling on like you've been wronged somehow.

Call the waaaaahmbulance Dougie.

1) Young, healthy people died of the Spanish Flu and they don't die of covid. I said it, you denied it, then your own stats proved me to be correct. Next time you want to trot out some stats just take a closer look at them first and maybe you won't get hoisted on your own petard again. It's time to carry on from that point.

2) Your "14% of diabetics die" stat does not prove anything unless you have something that says that at least some of the people in that diabetic demographic who died are not also in the very elderly demographic. 

https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/35/12/2650

Quote

More than 25% of the U.S. population aged ≥65 years has diabetes (1), and the aging of the overall population is a significant driver of the diabetes epidemic. Although the burden of diabetes is often described in terms of its impact on working-age adults, diabetes in older adults is linked to higher mortality, reduced functional status, and increased risk of institutionalization (2). Older adults with diabetes are at substantial risk for both acute and chronic microvascular and cardiovascular complications of the disease.

So there are a lot of elderly people with diabetes, and they usually also suffer from cardiovascular disease as well. So they check THE TOP THREE boxes for increased risk of death by coronavirus. Also, I don't see 14% on this list, I see 9.2% and 7.3%.

Quote

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease	8.0%	6.3%
Hypertension	8.4%	6.0%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
no pre-existing conditions		0.9%

 

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Call the waaaaahmbulance Dougie.

Now you've shifted from strawman to trolling, sign o' weakness, must have struck a nerve, tho I wasn't meaning to.

[Dougie93]

Never seen anybody get so wrapped around the axle, page after page, about someone quoting World Health Organization statistics, fear is the mind killer,  I suppose.

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

None of that addresses anything I have asserted,  your assertions are the classic Strawman Fallacy.

You are the one who can't handle things, I haven't posted anything at you, you are the one chasing me around the thread prattling on like you've been wronged somehow.

 

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

Frankly,  the whole ageist/ableist line of "don't worry, only the old people die from it" is actually a defense mechanism for people who are in fact afraid, that is all part of the panic.

 

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

Now you've shifted from strawman to trolling, sign o' weakness, must have struck a nerve, tho I wasn't meaning to.

 

57 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Never seen anybody get so wrapped around the axle, page after page, about someone quoting World Health Organization statistics, fear is the mind killer,  I suppose.

You've completely abandoned ship on the debate and gone 100% ad hominem Dougie.

The facts are 3 posts above this one. We both know you're not going there so I guess there's nothing left to see here.

[Dougie93]

17 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

 

You've completely abandoned ship on the debate and gone 100% ad hominem Dougie.

All I asserted was quotes of the World Health Organization, so your nonsensical quarrel must be with them. /shrugs

Edited March 6, 2020 by Dougie93

[SpankyMcFarland]

3 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Are 14% of the people who have diabetes over 60? 70? 

Honestly, over 70 with diabetes is pretty close to death.

 

My stepfather is 85 and has had diabetes for over 55 years. He’s more with it than I am. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

The US has had something like 12 deaths so far. By my makey-up math based on nothing very much, that suggests at least 1200 cases to me (or perhaps three times that), not the official figure of c. 220. The problem is that many of that undiagnosed cohort of a thousand or more may be infecting others without knowing it. Look to the land of the Hyundai, people. Those South Koreans are shaming us with their prodigious testing program. Time is very much of the essence.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Let’s start planning for what might happen:

Quote

A national task force of health-services experts under the leadership of the Public Health Agency of Canada should be quickly established whose objective is to prepare and give advice and support to local, regional and provincial authorities to make room in hospitals. Moving patients or imagining how to swap hospital beds between jurisdictions cannot be done under pressure, when decision-makers are looking for equipment, keeping their professionals safe and minimizing the impact of the virus. The federal government should also commit to compensating provinces for health-care costs in advance of the hospital bed crisis to avoid dithering and improvisation. Canadian epidemiologist Bruce Aylward, back from leading the World Health Organization mission to study the COVID-19 outbreak in China, said it well: “Are we ready? No! We’ll never be ready. But we have to be as ready as possible.”
 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-canada-must-prepare-its-hospitals-for-covid-19-and-do-it-quickly

 

[Zeitgeist]

The flights are still arriving from Iran to Pearson Airport.  How many Canadians would support this?

[Argus]

I was watching the news this morning from Europe. It had a story on a factory in France which produces masks. Among its customers is the British National Health Service, who buy from them all year long. But not now. The French government has ordered all masks produced in France to stay in France. The British are out of luck. The Germans have done the same.

The thought occurs to me to wonder just where Canada's masks are coming from. Because I'm gonna guess we don't make them here, and if we import them and that other country bans exports we're shit out of luck.

[Argus]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

The flights are still arriving from Iran to Pearson Airport.  How many Canadians would support this?

If you mean banning such flights I'm guessing the overwhelming majority.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Argus

[WestCanMan]

13 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

All I asserted was quotes of the World Health Organization, so your nonsensical quarrel must be with them. /shrugs

The stats speak for themselves Dougie. You had nothing to add to my last post which had all the stats you need.

[Dougie93]

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

The stats speak for themselves Dougie. You had nothing to add to my last post which had all the stats you need.

I'm not trying to add anything to your posts, since you are arguing with a strawman

[SpankyMcFarland]

Encouraging news on the fatality rate of Covid-19 from South Korea, the only country with a proper testing program:

Quote

• With 140,000 people tested, the country’s mortality rate is just over 0.6 per cent compared to the 3.4 per cent global average reported by the WHO
• Various factors can influence this percentage, but scientists agree that all things being equal, it is more accurate when more people are tested

 

Quote

....And while experts caution that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, the picture emerging in South Korea – which has the most confirmed cases outside China but with a more transparent political environment – suggests the virus could be less lethal than patchier data emerging from elsewhere.

 

“If we can test more people – whether they have no symptoms, mild or severe disease – the results, including the case fatality rate, are more accurate and representative when the whole disease spectrum is taken into consideration,” said David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Most countries just focus on testing the hospitalised patients who obviously have more severe disease, and [thus] the fatality rate is high.”

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3065187/coronavirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives

 

 

On the other hand, a 0.6% fatality rate suggests that 14 deaths means something like 2333 people have or had Covid-19 in the US. I think? Just a hunch.

Edited March 6, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[bush_cheney2004]

24 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

On the other hand, a 0.6% fatality rate suggests that 14 deaths means something like 2333 people have or had Covid-19 in the US. I think? Just a hunch.

 

Cannot project localized fatalities in Washington state to the entire U.S. population.