Warning to All MLW Members - Fear and the Cronavirus

[SpankyMcFarland]

46 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Cannot project localized fatalities in Washington state to the entire U.S. population.

 

Many of them may be in Washington. There’s no question that the US is missing cases at the moment. 233 is a gross underestimate of the real picture. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

South Korea has done something pretty extraordinary here:

Quote

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%. 

The death rate is a calculation of the number of known deaths out of the total number of confirmed cases. Because the disease caused by the coronavirus, COVID-19, progresses over a period of weeks — and because these numbers are constantly changing — it is not static and very likely to continue changing. It is not a reflection of the likelihood that any given person will die if infected.

The World Health Organization estimated on Tuesday that the global fatality rate for the coronavirus is around 3.4%. Some health experts predict that this rate will decrease as the number of cases rises. South Korea offers solid evidence for that prediction so far.

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

 

 

[bush_cheney2004]

29 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Many of them may be in Washington. There’s no question that the US is missing cases at the moment. 233 is a gross underestimate of the real picture. 

 

There is no doubt that many countries are missing cases...including Canada.

Can't test everybody.   Better statistical profiles require more data, which often happens AFTER the event.

Lots of papers will be written...same as SARS...MERS...etc.

[SpankyMcFarland]

10 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

There is no doubt that many countries are missing cases...including Canada.

Can't test everybody.   Better statistical profiles require more data, which often happens AFTER the event.

Lots of papers will be written...same as SARS...MERS...etc.

The test numbers speak for themselves. South Korea is embarrassing the rest of us. 

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The test numbers speak for themselves. South Korea is embarrassing the rest of us. 

 

Maybe, but South Korea is very motivated to do so considering its proximity and integration with China/economy.

 

[Marocc]

6 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

The flights are still arriving from Iran to Pearson Airport.  How many Canadians would support this?

How many are flying back?

6 hours ago, Argus said:

The thought occurs to me to wonder just where Canada's masks are coming from. Because I'm gonna guess we don't make them here, and if we import them and that other country bans exports we're shit out of luck.

They've already established the masks are useless unless you are sick yourself, in which case you should stay home anyway.

 

[Argus]

33 minutes ago, Marocc said:

They've already established the masks are useless unless you are sick yourself, in which case you should stay home anyway.

Use your head. If they were useless then the governments would not be restricting their export and all the medical people wouldn't be wearing them.

The 'established' narrative is that there's little point in ordinary people trying to wear them because ordinary people haven't been properly trained in how to fit them. For example, the complex art of squeezing in the metal nose guard so it folds tightly against your nose is evidently beyond mere mortals. Also people will likely take their dirty hands up and continually touch their masks, transferring germs there. This too apparently takes enormous training to know not to do. So for this reason they don't 'recommend' them for civilians.

Which is all to say they don't want people mobbing stores to grab them. They want to restrict them to where they're needed the most, which is by medical workers.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Argus

[eyeball]

44 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Lots of papers will be written...same as SARS...MERS...etc.

Hopefully that'll Include a few on the outbreaks of fear and loathing that occasionally attended outbreaks of the disease. It would be nice to see a little more effort taken to prevent and contain them too.

Perhaps encourage the infected to wash their mouths along with their hands on occasion.

[bush_cheney2004]

8 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Hopefully that'll Include a few on the outbreaks of fear and loathing that occasionally attended outbreaks of the disease. It would be nice to see a little more effort taken to prevent and contain them too.

 

Some of that is caused by expectations and presumptions about vaccines and healthcare systems in general.   Those of us who are old enough to remember sickness and death as more commonplace from a variety of infectious diseases and other causes have less fear and panic.

Far more people die quietly out of media's view from influenza every year.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The UK has done a reasonable job on testing too, despite having few cases:

 

Quote

The CDC confirmed eight days ago that the virus was in community transmission in the United States—that it was infecting Americans who had neither traveled abroad nor were in contact with others who had. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far tested 18,083 people for the virus.
 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

I’m finding Canada’s info on testing a little opaque, let’s say.
 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-coronavirus-march-6-1.5488009

 

Is there a running daily/weekly cumulative total of how people have been tested in this country?

 

[eyeball]

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Those of us who are old enough to remember sickness and death as more commonplace from a variety of infectious diseases and other causes have less fear and panic.

Sign of the times I guess. I was using public transportation by myself when I was 8 years old. Nowadays you risk being arrested for leaving an 8 year old alone at home.

 

Quote

Far more people die quietly out of media's view from influenza every year.

Over 18000 Americans in 2020 already according to the CDC.

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Is there a running daily/weekly cumulative total of how people have been tested in this country?

 

Sort of.....

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

[SpankyMcFarland]

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Sort of.....

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

Thank you. So 49 confirmed cases by the national lab, 2 more awaiting confirmation. I don’t see a total for tests done, provincially and federally. 

[OftenWrong]

7 hours ago, Argus said:

I was watching the news this morning from Europe. It had a story on a factory in France which produces masks. Among its customers is the British National Health Service, who buy from them all year long. But not now. The French government has ordered all masks produced in France to stay in France. The British are out of luck. The Germans have done the same.

The thought occurs to me to wonder just where Canada's masks are coming from. Because I'm gonna guess we don't make them here, and if we import them and that other country bans exports we're shit out of luck.

The benefits of globalization are showing themselves right here.

[OftenWrong]

4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

On the other hand, a 0.6% fatality rate suggests that 14 deaths means something like 2333 people have or had Covid-19 in the US. I think? Just a hunch.

Statistics become unreliable when the numbers are very low.

[OftenWrong]

20 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I’m finding Canada’s info on testing a little opaque, let’s say.
 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid-19-coronavirus-march-6-1.5488009

 

Is there a running daily/weekly cumulative total of how people have been tested in this country?

 

I think the virus story is fading from government radar. There's no point investing big money to counter this. But there's some value in using it to learn and be prepared for next time.

[Shady]

Be afraid!

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Shady said:

Be afraid!

Why trust God?  If there is one, all that stuff was his fault.

[OftenWrong]

Most of Europe has the virus. Right now it is spreading across Italy. For the past several days in a row, Italy has seen upwards of 700 cases per day. Not near as bad as China yet, but will the Italians manage to contain the virus? China seems to be winning the battle. I can only imagine how they were able to mobilize huge resources and move people, immediately and rapidly. An example of the power of Chinese authoritarian force, it could never be pulled off in a western democracy. And now we see the same pattern emerging in Canada and the United States. BC. New York. All those places where lazy assed, latte-sipping leftists congregate and collect their welfare checks.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The UK gov website gets straight to the point:

Quote

As of 9am on 6 March 2020, 20,338 people have been tested in the UK, of which 20,175 were confirmed negative and 163 were confirmed as positive. One patient who tested positive for COVID-19 has died.

The Department of Health and Social Care publishes updated data on this page every day at 2pm.

If more cases are confirmed in the UK, it will be announced by the Chief Medical Officer of the affected country.
 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

Over 20,000 tests in a European country that is not Italy - not too shabby by any measure.

Edited March 7, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[Rue]

12 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Most of Europe has the virus. Right now it is spreading across Italy. For the past several days in a row, Italy has seen upwards of 700 cases per day. Not near as bad as China yet, but will the Italians manage to contain the virus? 

Italians are always kissing and toughing each other and their private parts and driving  fast cars so they spread it that way. Seriously I was supposed to go to a wedding in Northern Italy this summer. They are telling people not to travel there now. I will have to wait and see but I am not worried seriously. As some have said on this forum, viruses are life. To be afraid of them is irrational. I think seriously without sounding condescending, if you have lived long enough to see death, whether it be from terrorism, war, cancer, etc., it loses its fear impact in the sense that being dead is not the issue, its how you live that matters...I will be damned if I am afraid of life.

 

[OftenWrong]

9 minutes ago, Rue said:

Italians are always kissing and toughing each other and their private parts and driving  fast cars so they spread it that way. Seriously I was supposed to go to a wedding in Northern Italy this summer. They are telling people not to travel there now. I will have to wait and see but I am not worried seriously. As some have said on this forum, viruses are life. To be afraid of them is irrational. I think seriously without sounding condescending, if you have lived long enough to see death, whether it be from terrorism, war, cancer, etc., it loses its fear impact in the sense that being dead is not the issue, its how you live that matters...I will be damned if I am afraid of life.

 

Exactly, viruses, or virii have played a major role in human evolution. Only those with a strong immune system will survive. Plus, virii are selective in whom they target it seems. It is interesting to note, in many cases it seems such terrible diseases that spread rapidly in those types of communities you described. The touchy-feely types, the lovey doveys. People who wear lots of perfume, but don't shower that often. You know what I mean.

[eyeball]

13 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Most of Europe has the virus. Right now it is spreading across Italy. For the past several days in a row, Italy has seen upwards of 700 cases per day. Not near as bad as China yet, but will the Italians manage to contain the virus? China seems to be winning the battle. I can only imagine how they were able to mobilize huge resources and move people, immediately and rapidly. An example of the power of Chinese authoritarian force, it could never be pulled off in a western democracy. And now we see the same pattern emerging in Canada and the United States. BC. New York. All those places where lazy assed, latte-sipping leftists congregate and collect their welfare checks.

I'll take my chances with lazy latte sipping leftists than the authoritarian approach to things that right-wingers fantasize about.

Besides which most conservatives are old so...you better get on with rounding up the lefties it before its too late and COVID-19 decimates your numbers to the point you're completely irrelevant.

[Shady]

15 hours ago, bcsapper said:

Why trust God?  If there is one, all that stuff was his fault.

It’s not my meme.  I just like that it listed previous instances of hysteria.