Warning to All MLW Members - Fear and the Cronavirus

[Argus]

17 hours ago, Shady said:

I guess you’re sort of right too. 

Markets are a roller coaster right now. I heard someone say the US was rolling out the test kits now and would be testing a million people in the next week - as opposed to several hundred so far. If that testing shoots their numbers up from about a hundred people with the virus into the thousands (as it likely will) I predict the markets will take it poorly.

[Dougie93]

The real money is made when there is blood in the streets, coronavirus panic is a crisis which brings opportunity,

[Dougie93]

Case in point, Campbell's Soup is up 10%,  as the coronavirus panic incites hoarding of canned goods.

Costco has bounced from $280 to $320, which is an all time high.

[Dougie93]

The Bank of Canada just cut the rate to 1.25%, if you have a variable rate mortgage, it's practically free money.

[WestCanMan]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

Coronavirus is comparable, the WHO is on the verge of declaring it to be a pandemic, and in terms of case fatality it is closer to 1919 than it is the other two pandemics in the 20th century

Not - comparable. Not - at - all.

Octagenarians dying does not compare to healthy 25 yr olds dying. Not at all. 

When healthy 25 yr olds start dropping like flies there will be legitimate reason for everyone to live in fear. Healthy people right now have nothing at all to fear. Spanish Flu - fear. Coronavirus - no fear.

If ten 25 yr olds die they miss out on 500 years of life expectancy and most of them don't have kids. If 10,000 eighty yr olds die they miss out on zero years of life expectancy and zero children. People are sad, no one is distraught, and people don't suddenly come to god when they get an itch in their throat.

It is not comparable. 

Would you rather have Zeka virus go around in your family or coronavirus? No one would choose Zeka. 

[Dougie93]

29 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Not - comparable. Not - at - all.

A pandemic cannot be compared to another pandemic ?  Yeah, okay, whatever, derp-derp.

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is in the same class as H1N1 1919, COVID-19 is vastly more lethal than the other two pandemics in the 20th century

if H1N1 is most lethal, COVID-19 would be the second most lethal, by orders of magnitude more so than Asian Flu (H1N2) 1957 or Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) 1968

[Dougie93]

The actual case fatality rate of Spanish Flu, people killed directly by the virus itself, was 2-3% by the estimate of the World Health Organization

The reported case fatality rate of COVID-19 is 2.3%, which is totally comparable to Spanish Flu, regardless of what the final death toll turns out to be

Also, by the way, in terms of the Spanish Flu,  the most vulnerable were pregnant women, with a 23% case fatality rate.

Moreover, Spanish Flu came in two waves, the first wave was not so bad, it was the second wave which was devastating, the virus changed on the fly, mutated.

So when the World Health Organization says that we are "in uncharted territory", they mean they don't know where this is going, novel viruses are unpredictable

Edited March 4, 2020 by Dougie93

[SpankyMcFarland]

The fatality rate of COVID-19, particularly in Western countries, is difficult to assess because it’s so early in the course of the epidemic and the true number of infected but asymptomatic people is not known. At the moment, for example, there is a marked difference in the fatality rates of the infection in the US and South Korea. This discrepancy can most plausibly be explained by the extraordinary number of people already tested in South Korea, increasing the denominator and decreasing the fatality rate. 

Here’s one doctor who remains optimistic we are not heading into Spanish flu territory:

Quote

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[WestCanMan]

40 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

The actual case fatality rate of Spanish Flu, people killed directly by the virus itself, was 2-3% by the estimate of the World Health Organization

The Spanish Flu killed 50M people. If there was only a 2% mortality rate then 2.5B people had to have been infected. I've never seen a quote of more than 500,000,000 being infected.

Quote

The reported case fatality rate of COVID-19 is 2.3%, which is totally comparable to Spanish Flu, regardless of what the final death toll turns out to be

I already posted this here, but wth:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Quote

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

Unless you're 60+, the mortality rate is about 1/10th of the 2% stat that you quoted. 

Quote

Also, by the way, in terms of the Spanish Flu,  the most vulnerable were pregnant women, with a 23% case fatality rate.

And again, if that's true, it's still way worse when your pregnant daughter dies, compared to your 84 yr old grandma. Sometimes 1 is not equal to 1.

Quote

Moreover, Spanish Flu came in two waves, the first wave was not so bad, it was the second wave which was devastating, the virus changed on the fly, mutated.

You're covering old ground. I already mentioned that several times in this thread.

Quote

So when the World Health Organization says that we are "in uncharted territory", they mean they don't know where this is going, novel viruses are unpredictable

The WHO is almost as bad as the UN at selecting people for leadership roles:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/health/candidate-who-director-general-ethiopia-cholera-outbreaks.html

The best quote to ever come from the WHO:

"We don't know what the phack is going on" - WHO

 

[WestCanMan]

2 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The fatality rate of COVID-19, particularly in Western countries, is difficult to assess at the moment because it’s so early in the course of the epidemic and the true number of infected but asymptomatic people is not known. At the moment, for example, there is a marked difference in the fatality rates of the infection in the US and South Korea. This discrepancy can most plausibly be explained by the extraordinary number of people already tested in South Korea, increasing the denominator and decreasing the fatality rate. 

Here’s one doctor who remains optimistic we are not heading into Spanish flu territory:

 

I get my info from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The closed cases are the only thing that you can judge the fatality rate from, it's at about 6% right now. 

Like I posted earlier - octogenarians are a huge factor in the pushing up the death rate, septuagenarians as well but to a lesser extent. 

If you don't count those two groups it's well under 1%.

[Dougie93]

13 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

The Spanish Flu killed 50M people.

 

No, there is one estimate that 50 million died as a result of the pandemic : "attributable excess mortality" which is not the case fatality rate

The WHO estimate of case fatality rate for Spanish Flu is 2 - 3%

The WHO estimate for case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 2.3%

[OftenWrong]

4 hours ago, Argus said:

Markets are a roller coaster right now. I heard someone say the US was rolling out the test kits now and would be testing a million people in the next week - as opposed to several hundred so far. If that testing shoots their numbers up from about a hundred people with the virus into the thousands (as it likely will) I predict the markets will take it poorly.

Rollercoaster- But isn't that the time when certain people can make the really big money?

Judging by the general media reaction to markets, it doesn't seem very concerning to the US. Not affecting them as much as the other guy perhaps, and maybe they even like this.

Trump today-
"In a certain way you could say that the borders are automatically shut down, without having to say 'shut down'. But it's affecting the airline industry as it would, and a lot of people are staying in our country, and they are shopping and using our hotels in this country. So from that standpoint, I think there is a positive impact."  

[WestCanMan]

Just now, Dougie93 said:

No, there is one estimate that 50 million died as a result of the pandemic : "attributable excess mortality" which is not the case fatality rate

The WHO estimate of case fatality rate for Spanish Flu is 2 - 3%

The WHO estimate for case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 2.3%

675,000 people in the US died from the Spanish Flu. In a lot of places, even some in the US, they buried people in mass graves. 

If only 2% of the people who got the Spanish Flu died, they wouldn't have needed to dig mass graves anywhere. There would be a bunch of healthy people who never even got the flu (75% of the population), plus a bunch of people who survived the flu, to bury the bodies. 

[Dougie93]

14 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

If you don't count those two groups it's well under 1%.

The two other pandemics in the 20th century, Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu had a case morality rate of 0.67% and 0.5%

So again, 2.3% case fatality rate is in the same class as Spanish Flu, in comparison to pandemics in general.

People with underlying very common health issues have much higher case fatality rates with COVID-19, such as 14% for diabetes.

[Dougie93]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

675,000 people in the US died from the Spanish Flu. In a lot of places, even some in the US, they buried people in mass graves. 

If only 2% of the people who got the Spanish Flu died, they wouldn't have needed to dig mass graves anywhere. There would be a bunch of healthy people who never even got the flu (75% of the population), plus a bunch of people who survived the flu, to bury the bodies. 

Blah, blah, blah, I'm quoting the World Health Organization official estimate, you are rambling on pointlessly talking out of your ass.

 

[Dougie93]

People going around the internet asserting "50-100 million dead by Spanish Flu" are all talking out of their asses.

That is not a WHO official estimate, the highest estimate by the WHO is 20-50 million "attributable excess mortality" which is not the case rate, that's all complication related deaths as well

[OftenWrong]

That WHO spokesman is a real drama queen. "We are now entering uncharted territory"... Such dark utterances of impending danger. Grave danger, that is.

[Dougie93]

The Hamilton District School Board has prohibited students from wearing masks, the school board says "they don't work" and "cause hysteria"

Not that I think masks work, but the parents should probably terrorize those school board nabobs into submission

I think banning people from wearing masks actually contravenes the Human Rights Code, so there's a lawsuit available there as well.

[OftenWrong]

They should let the students wear the masks people wore during the black plague.

[Dougie93]

California declares a state of emergency.

https://www.calhospital.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/emergencydeclarations_2up.pdf

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

They should let the students wear the masks people wore during the black plague.

I'd just like to see a mob of hysterical parents tar & feather presumptuous public sector employees.

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

Blah, blah, blah, I'm quoting the World Health Organization official estimate, you are rambling on pointlessly talking out of your ass.

 

Really? I didn't see even one cite from you. I had plenty.

Plus the WHO stats don't even jive. 2% of the people died = 50M people died, but only 500M were infected? Ummmm, is that really 2%? Seems more like 10%.

Where is your cite showing that young people are dying from covid 19? Didn't see that one either.... because you're talking out of your ass.

 

[Dougie93]

10 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Really? I didn't see even one cite from you. I had plenty.

 

Page 13. Table 2.  CHARACTERISTICS OF THE THREE PANDEMICS OF THE 20th CENTURY

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44123/9789241547680_eng.pdf

[WestCanMan]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

The two other pandemics in the 20th century, Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu had a case morality rate of 0.67% and 0.5%

So again, 2.3% case fatality rate is in the same class as Spanish Flu, in comparison to pandemics in general.

People with underlying very common health issues have much higher case fatality rates with COVID-19, such as 14% for diabetes.

Healthy people aren't dying from coronavirus, period.

Some of the healthiest people alive were dying from the Spanish Flu. That's a fact that you can check yourself. Some people were dying within hours of getting their first symptoms. Are people dying like that from coronavirus? I've never heard of it.

Those two things are completely the unlike each other.

Sure, covid 19 is good at killing septuagenarians and octogenarians. There hardly were any octogenarians alive in 1918. The average life expectancy back then was 25 years shorter than it is now.

The current iteration of coronavirus is nothing at all like the spanish flu. Healthy people have nothing to fear from it. Rich 90 yr olds who own newspapers want you to freak out. Cultists and survivalists want this to be the big one. That's not what it is at this point in time. 

Freak out of you want. Run to your cabin in the woods if you want. I'm not going anywhere.

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Freak out of you want. Run to your cabin in the woods if you want. I'm not going anywhere.

You're the one who is freaking out,  I'm simply discussing the matter,  to include the World Health Organization official estimates as opposed to your unfounded assertions.