Warning to All MLW Members - Fear and the Cronavirus

[Dougie93]

As we can see from the World Health Organization official estimates,  there were three pandemics in the 20th century

Spanish Flu with a case fatality rate of 2-3%

Asian Flu with a case fatality rate of 0.2%

Hong Kong Flu with a case fatality rate of 0.2%

The WHO is stating COVID-19 has a case fatality rate for healthy persons of 2.3%

Thus, as all can see, it is statistically comparable to Spanish Flu, by definition.

[WestCanMan]

3 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Page 13. Table 2.  CHARACTERISTICS OF THE THREE PANDEMICS OF THE 20th CENTURY

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44123/9789241547680_eng.pdf

Page 13. Table 2.

Quote

TABLE 2

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE THREE PANDEMICS OF THE 20th CENTURY5

PANDEMIC

(DATE AND COMMON NAME)

AREA OF EMERGENCE

INFLUENZA A VIRUS SUBTYPE

ESTIMATED REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER

ESTIMATED CASE FATALITY RATE

ESTIMATED ATTRIBUTABLE EXCESS MORTALITY WORLDWIDE

AGE GROUPS MOST AFFECTED (SIMULATED ATTACK RATES)

GDP LOSS

(PERCENTAGE CHANGE)6,7

1918-1919 “Spanish Flu”	Unclear	H1N1	1.5-1.8	2-3%	20-50 million	AGE GROUPS MOST AFFECTED (SIMULATED ATTACK RATES) Young adults	-16.9 to 2.4
1957-1958 “Asian Flu”	Southern China	H2N2	1.5	<0.2%	1-4 million	AGE GROUPS MOST AFFECTED (SIMULATED ATTACK RATES) Children	-3.5 to 0.4
1968-1969 “Hong Kong Flu”	Southern China	H3N2	1.3-1.6	<0.2%	1-4 million	AGE GROUPS MOST AFFECTED (SIMULATED ATTACK RATES) All age groups	-0.4 to (-1.5)

So there's the information that I've been talking about this whole time, right in your own chart. Spanish Flu killing young adults. 

A few posts back I pasted the info from worldometer showing the death rates for the various age groups, by decade, showing that people 70+ are 16-75x more likely to die than young people.  

This flu is a nudge for people who are already walking on the edge of their graves. 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Page 13. Table 2.

So there's the information that I've been talking about this whole time, right in your own chart. Spanish Flu killing young adults.

Irrelevant to my assertion, the case fatality rates are comparable, contrary to bloviating drivel to the otherwise.

In terms of who COVID-19 has been killing, your assertion of "it's only people over 80" is also unfounded

For example, It has a 14% case fatality rate for persons with diabetes, which is 3.5 million Canadians, the vast majority of which being well under the age of 80

[WestCanMan]

8 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

You're the one who is freaking out,  I'm simply discussing the matter,  to include the World Health Organization official estimates as opposed to your unfounded assertions.

My charts and your charts both back up my assertions and leave you in the cold Dougie.

Covid 19 is a nudge towards the grave. Spanish flu killed the healthiest people around. You're comparing apples to tarantulas.

The people who are freaking out about this "pandemic" are largely ignorant to the simple facts of the matter. The current iteration of the virus simply isn't a threat to healthy people. 

[Dougie93]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

My charts and your charts both back up my assertions and leave you in the cold Dougie. 

Your assertion that there can be no comparison is patently nonsensical on the face of it, your other assertions I simply ignored, because they are irrelevant to my case.

[WestCanMan]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

Irrelevant to my assertion, the case fatality rates are comparable, contrary to bloviating drivel to the otherwise.

In terms of who COVID-19 has been killing, your assertion of "it's only people over 80" is also unfounded

For example, It has a 14% case fatality rate for persons with diabetes, which is 3.5 million Canadians, the vast majority of which being well under the age of 80

I was the one who made the original assertion, which still stands as being entirely correct, and even verified by your own data. Covid 19 kills unhealthy people, period. This version of Covid 19 is not something for people to worry about like they did with the Spanish Flu. Period. Full stop. Your own data says exactly as much.  

[Dougie93]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

I was the one who made the original assertion, which still stands as being entirely correct, and even verified by your own data. Covid 19 kills unhealthy people, period.

As COVID-19 killed a perfectly healthy 29 year old doctor and then the perfectly healthy 34 year old doctor who sounded the alert and is now a kind of martyr in China, clearly that is a false assertion.

There's a reason they are freaking out in Hubei where this has broken out, the bodies are piling up, and no, they are not all octogenarians.

[Dougie93]

And again, literally millions of Canadians suffer from the health problems which make them vulnerable to a COVID-19 incited cytokine storm, people with asthma, heart disease, diabetes, and many of these people are relatively young, I don't throw people under the bus just because they are not perfectly healthy and 25

[WestCanMan]

7 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Your assertion that there can be no comparison is patently nonsensical on the face of it, your other assertions I simply ignored, because they are irrelevant to my case.

Comparing a disease which has a high mortality rate among 25 yr olds to a disease which mainly kills 80 yr olds and the infirm is like comparing a powerful pellet gun to a .50 cal. Yeah they're both long and they have wooden stocks, but the realistic comparison ends there. One is terrifying, the other is only deadly if you find a way to put it inside of your skull before you fire it. 

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

 is like comparing a powerful pellet gun to a .50 cal.

No, what you are basically saying is that it's "just an atomic bomb", so don't discuss it in your presence, because "it's not a hydrogen bomb". 

I'm simply presenting the facts as per the World Health Organization, what are you afraid of ?

[Dougie93]

 

Quote

 

‘Real people won't die’: Rhetoric around who is at risk of coronavirus infection sparks debate over ageism, ableism

As people dismiss coronavirus worries by saying it's 'only for the old and sick,' those most in danger of severe illness are speaking out

As heightened fear of the coronavirus continues to spread while more global cases develop, people are reassuring themselves and others that the virus is mostly only deadly for a select few vulnerable groups — the elderly, the immunocompromised and those with pre-existing health conditions. But the reminder has sparked a conversation about ageism and ableism when it comes to health emergencies.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/real-people-wont-die-why-the-rhetoric-around-who-is-at-risk-for-coronavirus-is-so-harmful

 

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Dougie93

[eyeball]

9 hours ago, Argus said:

Markets are a roller coaster right now. I heard someone say the US was rolling out the test kits now and would be testing a million people in the next week - as opposed to several hundred so far. If that testing shoots their numbers up from about a hundred people with the virus into the thousands (as it likely will) I predict the markets will take it poorly.

There could be a lot less need to panic if testing suddenly showed thousands of cases. It might actually be a relief. If there sre already thousands of unreported cases out there then it stands to reason most are asymptomatic or show symptoms that are so mild as to not cause alarm.  If the death rate to date is mostly based on people with severe symptoms that require hospitalization and not on a total number of cases that is potentially much larger, the death rate from COVID-19 will be lower and perhaps closer to being on par with ordinary influenza.

Quote

Assuming the number of people who have reportedly died from COVID-19 is reasonably accurate, then the percentage of infected people who die from the disease (the death rate) must surely have been much lower than the 2–3% estimates commonly reported. That is because the number of infected people is much larger than the number tested and reported.

CATO Institute

Edited March 5, 2020 by eyeball

[Dougie93]

Even the CATO institute "estimate" of 1.4% case lethality is 10 times more lethal than seasonal Flu and 7 times more lethal than previous pandemics in 1957 and 1968

[eyeball]

30 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Even the CATO institute "estimate" of 1.4% case lethality is 10 times more lethal than seasonal Flu and 7 times more lethal than previous pandemics in 1957 and 1968

Which is still only half as bad as currently guesstimated and there's other good reasons for not despairing.

 

Quote

 

COVID-19 spreads to more countries as China sees cases drop to lowest level in weeks

In China, the count of new virus cases dropped again Tuesday, with just 125 new cases after a six-week low of 202 a day earlier. It’s still by far the hardest-hit country, with 80,151 cases and 2,943 deaths.

China’s ambassador to the United Nations said the country was winning its battle against COVID-19.

“We are not far from the coming of the victory,” said Zhang Jun.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6621704/coronavirus-spreads-cases-slow-china/

 

Again how many undocumented mild cases there were in China compared to the documented one's is anyone's guess.

COVID-19 is starting to look less like the Big One but that said I think it's safe to say we got hit with a bit of a wake up call, I'm sure lessons are being learned.

[Dougie93]

27 minutes ago, eyeball said:

Which is still only half as bad as currently guesstimated and there's other good reasons for not despairing.

I don't see any reason to despair, but I still would expect more market volatility related to coronavirus

The other element is that it is apparently exponentially more contagious than the seasonal flu, so that also contributes to the unease.

It's not just the markets neither, it's the real economy as well,  Italy is in a technical recession just from the loss of tourism already

The Fed is poised to cut another 25 basis points at the next meeting, that's down to 1% free money.

Thing is tho, the markets are addicted to rate cuts, so if the Fed runs out of room to cut, being near zero right now, that could also incite the bears

It's not just coronavirus, the coronavirus is arriving in a late cycle unstable market inflated by rate cut addiction

Edited March 5, 2020 by Dougie93

[eyeball]

12 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I don't see any reason to despair, but I still would expect more market volatility related to coronavirus

The other element is that it is apparently exponentially more contagious than the seasonal flu, so that also contributes to the unease.

It's not just the markets neither, it's the real economy as well,  Italy is in a technical recession just from the loss of tourism already

18000 Americans have died from the flu in 2020 so far.

 

Quote

 

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 89,000 illnesses and 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

How does one explain the DOW's utter indifference to that?

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, eyeball said:

18000 Americans have died from the flu in 2020 so far.

 

How does one explain the DOW's utter indifference to that?

The coronavirus is reportedly much more contagious and ten times as deadly as the seasonal flu, so more likely to cause panic, so more likely to damage earnings, inciting a sell off

 

[Dougie93]

For example the person who is responsible for screening for coronavirus at LAX has caught coronavirus now, so this stuff is apparently very easy to catch

This was an employee of the CDC, so was a professional and wearing protective equipment.

And even if you are someone who doesn't care if the old and the infirm die, most people don't want the old and/or infirm  in their families to die, so they will react to it.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Dougie93

[WestCanMan]

11 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

No, what you are basically saying is that it's "just an atomic bomb", so don't discuss it in your presence, because "it's not a hydrogen bomb". 

I'm simply presenting the facts as per the World Health Organization, what are you afraid of ?

I don't like misleading, disingenuous, and I especially don't like fear mongering.

Coronavirus isn't a killer to be feared by everyone, like the Spanish Flu was. Coronavirus is only a threat to nudge people along.

You keep quoting your diabetes stats for example. Only 3,300 people have died from coronavirus so far. So how many would have been from diabetes plus Covid? Maybe 300? That's a small sample size for starters, but how many would also be 60+? 70+? 80? What % of the people with diabetes between the ages of 20 and 40 died from Coronavirus? You don't know, do you? I know one thing for sure though, the % of people over 70 with diabetes who die from it is much higher than the 8% which is the average in that age demographic. 

Coronavirus is what it is right now, and that's just a moon-cast shadow of what the Spanish Flu was. I personally would rather get it now than wait for the second or third go-round, and it's probably coming back at some point in the near future.

[SpankyMcFarland]

16 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

I get my info from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The closed cases are the only thing that you can judge the fatality rate from, it's at about 6% right now. 

Like I posted earlier - octogenarians are a huge factor in the pushing up the death rate, septuagenarians as well but to a lesser extent. 

If you don't count those two groups it's well under 1%.

One can’t assess the fatality rate unless one knows how many people were infected, the vast majority of whom will just have a flu-like illness or less. The South Koreans are making a decent effort at finding most of these cases but in other countries like the US and Canada many asymptomatic cases are being missed which falsely elevates the fatality rate. 

It is true that the Spanish flu affected many more young people than COVID. My grandfather almost died of it after WWI. 
 

I find this site has articles that I think I can understand fairly well:

Quote

While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying. Deaths occurred in every age group except in children under the age of nine, and, generally speaking, “we see relatively few cases among children,” World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said last week.

This pattern of increasing severity with age differs from that of some other viral outbreaks, notably the 1918 flu pandemic, for which mortality was high in young children and in people between 20 and 40 years of age. However, it’s broadly consistent with records of the SARS and MERS coronavirus outbreaks, notes Lisa Gralinski, a virologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “If you’re over fifty or sixty and you have some other health issues and if you’re unlucky enough to be exposed to this virus, it could be very bad,” she says.
 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

North America is really lagging behind on testing. Here’s some more info on the tests:

Quote

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-sars-cov-2-tests-work-and-whats-next-in-covid-19-diagnostics-67210

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[WestCanMan]

More from worldometer:

Quote

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease	8.0%	6.3%
Hypertension	8.4%	6.0%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
no pre-existing conditions		0.9%

 

 

 

[WestCanMan]

27 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

One can’t assess the fatality rate unless one knows how many people were infected, the vast majority of whom will just have a flu-like illness or less. The South Koreans are making a decent effort at finding most of these cases but in other countries like the US and Canada many asymptomatic cases are being missed which falsely elevates the fatality rate. 
 

These are just the numbers that are being reported for [people who died of covid]/[people known to have been infected who have died or fully recovered]. 

Countries intentionally underreported fatality rates in Britain, the US and other countries during the Spanish Flu (I've read that that's why they called it the Spanish Flu, there was the appearance that it was mostly affecting Spaniards because they were telling the truth about it), it's likely that China is as well. 

The chances of us hearing the truth is probably 0%, I can only speculate based on the numbers we get though.

Quote

It is true that the Spanish flu affected many more young people than COVID. My grandfather almost died of it after WWI. 

My grandfather had two brothers that died of it as well.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

53 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

These are just the numbers that are being reported for [people who died of covid]/[people known to have been infected who have died or fully recovered]. 

Countries intentionally underreported fatality rates in Britain, the US and other countries during the Spanish Flu (I've read that that's why they called it the Spanish Flu, there was the appearance that it was mostly affecting Spaniards because they were telling the truth about it), it's likely that China is as well. 

The chances of us hearing the truth is probably 0%, I can only speculate based on the numbers we get though.

 

The thing is that the South Koreans are doing a better job than we are at testing those asymptomatic positive cases, so their fatality rate may be more reliable than those of North America or Europe. They are still setting the pace on testing (from worldometers):

 

Quote

As of March 2, 2020

Country	Tests Performed	Tests per Million People	Population
South Korea	109,591	2,138	51,269,185	source
Italy	23,345	386	60,461,826	source
Austria	2,120	235	9,006,398	source
Switzerland	1,850	214	8,654,622	source
UK	13,525	199	67,886,011	source
Finland	130	23	5,540,720	source
Vietnam	1,737	18	97,338,579	source
Turkey	940	11	84,339,067	source
United States	472*	1	331,001,651	source

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

 

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[Dougie93]

2 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

I don't like misleading, disingenuous, and I especially don't like fear mongering.

 

Nobody is fear mongering, we're simply discussing the news, stop trying to police the internet, that's a fool's errand.

[Dougie93]

2 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

 

Coronavirus isn't a killer to be feared by everyone, like the Spanish Flu was. Coronavirus is only a threat to nudge people along.

You keep quoting your diabetes stats for example. Only 3,300 people have died from coronavirus so far.

I'm simply doing the math, a 14%  death rate for diabetics is extremely high, most diabetics do not wish to be nudged into the grave, many of them are quite young.