What to do about China

[cannuck]

5 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

We've tried that, they have made it clear they don't want to follow any rules except the ones that benefit them.  They're the ones that have made this zero-sum.

This is exactly correct, but isolating China as you suggest in your later post is to create yet another cold war - except this time with an adversary that makes Russia look like schoolboys.

You have to meet China head on, and to exclude them is not doing that.  You give them continued access to our markets but with 100% requirement to meet labour, human rights, product safety and environmental standards for each and every product to gain access.  Similarly, go right back to the source for such stuff as fentanyl smugglers and hold China responsible for them.  What they really don't want is international embarassment.

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, Argus said:

1. That simply has not happened.

2. Certainly they've gotten rid of most aspects of Communism, but ... They continue to ignore virtually all the rules of fair trade and are engaging in predatory economic activities against other countries even the Americans wouldn't have tried back in the fifties and sixties.

3.  ... yeah, joining the global economy was good for China and very bad for the rest of us. Time to rethink that.

1. Yes but I don't think that was ever driving the relationship.
2. Ok but lots of people are making lots of money off the relationship and I'm referring to North Americans.  That is obvious right ?
3. I am open to the idea that it's "very bad" for us but can you articulate an argument as to why we haven't just walked away ?  I mean, a real one. 

 

I'm not on either side of this but I want to hear an argument that incorporates the reasons why we didn't walk away a long time ago.  One of the terrible side-effects of the stupiding of dialogue has been the inability to discuss things like trade in real terms.  I do think you are capable of such a discussion, and I'm wondering what thoughts you have on that.

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, Argus said:

1. He used it as a sales tool, 

2. China grew stronger under his term, not weaker, richer, not poorer. It expanded its influence around the world without challenge from the US. Its trade surplus with the US grew larger, not smaller. Nothing he did hindered China. Nor was it intended to. It was merely a PR exercise to convince the suckers in middle America that he was working on their behalf.

1. Yes and this is the problem with trade: our politics doesn't allow for actual discussion of trade-offs.  Liberals and Conservatives see the dollars and make noises while in opposition but don't really change anything in power.

2. Yes until very recently.  The Trade Deficit has now reduced significantly but only back to about 2012, 1/2 way through Obama's term.  And China isn't following its obligations to the US either.

 

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

1. He gave more of a damn than the leadership in Canada, which is what this thread is about.  Transshipments, IP theft, dumping, tariffs, and Huawei were engaged by Trump, and Canada had to react to the changing landscape for globalism.

2. So it is back to what Canada should do about China really means what Canada wants America to do about China and protect the "post WW2 order", because Canada sure as hell can't/won't do so.  

3. Maybe Biden will make Canada happy...but I doubt it.

1. I can listen to points for/against on whether he actually cared.  I do think he did some things.
2. We are on the same team in the end.
3. Biden's dilemma on China is even worse than Canada's.  Stick with Trump's plan and get the blame when it fails, or come up with your own and get the blame when it fails.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

He gave more of a damn than the leadership in Canada,

No doubt, but I was simply answering a person, not seeking to summon the site's ugly Americans.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

Is that why the Yuan went up to higher value than it's been in the past 28 months, after Biden's victory? Why was it so low then, for the past 28 months?

Link

Biden comes along, China is giving a big thumbs up! So happy China.

Again, you don't seem to understand that a lower yuan is good for China. It makes their exports cheaper to Americans and American exports more expensive there. They play a lot of games to lower their currency's value.

[bush_cheney2004]

9 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. I can listen to points for/against on whether he actually cared.  I do think he did some things.

 

Okay, but that really isn't the point here for "what Canada should do about China".

 

Quote

2. We are on the same team in the end.

 

Sometimes yes...sometimes no.   Canada was complicit in some of the dumping, IP theft, and transshipments.

 

Quote

3. Biden's dilemma on China is even worse than Canada's.  Stick with Trump's plan and get the blame when it fails, or come up with your own and get the blame when it fails.

 

Canada is far more likely to accept the familiar economic pains of the past represented by Biden/Democrats than anything Trump/GOP came up with.

Edited November 17, 2020 by bush_cheney2004

[Argus]

10 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. Yes but I don't think that was ever driving the relationship.

No, money was. But that was the thinking among politicians.

10 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

2. Ok but lots of people are making lots of money off the relationship and I'm referring to North Americans.  That is obvious right ?

A few very wealthy people are making money off the relationship, principally those who own lots of stock in companies doing business there. But even there most of the money is ephemeral. China wants to avoid importing large amounts of goods from other countries, so it pressures companies to build whatever it is they're selling there in China. So a lot of companies find they have to reinvest their profits from China IN China in order to retain their favour. It looks good on the books back home, but China could take it away any time they wanted. There's no law there, after all.

The question is, though, is this good for the US? Well, no. For example, the top export for both countries is electrical machinery. China imported $14 billion in electrical machinery from the US. Sound good? But they exported $125 billion into the US. Whoops. Number two is machinery, with them buying $13b and selling $93b. So yes, some people are making money, but more people are losing money. And jobs. Lots of jobs.

10 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

3. I am open to the idea that it's "very bad" for us but can you articulate an argument as to why we haven't just walked away ?  I mean, a real one. 

Corruption and short term thinking on the part of politicians who, for the most part, aren't really focused much on trade anyway. Did you hear it mentioned in our election? Nope. Anyway, I'm not suggesting we walk away. I'm suggesting we force them to abide by the WTO regulations they signed, and kick out their spies. Also, I don't know enough about the internet to know if it's possible to put a cordon sanitaire around them, but if it was I would.

Open confrontation of the Trump type does not work well with China. Gentle coaxing behind the scenes works even less well. The Chinese are very good at smiling and nodding and ignoring you. People need to look at how China pressures countries, like by suddenly finding some excuse to temporarily ban the import of various goods, or imposing time consuming customs delays. We should do the same to them. The Chinese don't see restraint as anything but weakness.

 

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, Argus said:

The question is, though, is this good for the US? Well, no. For example, the top export for both countries is electrical machinery.
 

 

U.S. exports are far larger than that and is dominated by services compared to "electrical machinery.   Also, the U.S. economy is far less dependent on exports (13% of GDP) compared to China (20%) and Canada (30%).

[Michael Hardner]

34 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

1. Okay, but that really isn't the point here for "what Canada should do about China".

2. Sometimes yes...sometimes no.   Canada was complicit in some of the dumping, IP theft, and transshipments.

3. Canada is far more likely to accept the familiar economic pains of the past represented by Biden/Democrats than anything Trump/GOP came up with.

1. Ok - I just happened on this... "what to do" 
2. Ok.
3. I guess we have to dunk our donuts this time.

[bush_cheney2004]

Just now, Michael Hardner said:

3. I guess we have to dunk our donuts this time.

 

Sure....after going through the Trump meat grinder, Canada will welcome the good old days of softwood lumber tariffs, "Buy American" protectionism, NAFTA quotas, 50% Yankee ownership of manufacturing base, pipeline politics, and Chinese clean-up for the rest.

I guess a familiar and previously acceptable level of misery is better than a new adventure for Canada, and that includes China.

[Moonlight Graham]

7 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Do you have some examples ?  Or I guess... all the examples since they didn't follow any ?

IP theft.

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, cannuck said:

This is exactly correct, but isolating China as you suggest in your later post is to create yet another cold war - except this time with an adversary that makes Russia look like schoolboys.

You have to meet China head on, and to exclude them is not doing that.  You give them continued access to our markets but with 100% requirement to meet labour, human rights, product safety and environmental standards for each and every product to gain access.

How do you meet a country head-on that has 1.4 billion people and is going to zoom past the US economy over the coming decades and just keep getting more and more powerful?

Your solution is one we could try, and it would help us in the short and maybe medium term but longterm China seems destined to become the most powerful country in the world with the economic partnerships we have.  China is foolish because they've now shown most of their hand before this has happened.  Until the last few years the West was naively apathetic towards China.

What are you willing to give up to save some money on cheaply made crap?

 

[Moonlight Graham]

We need to think on time scales of 50+ years from now.  Had we done that 25-30 years ago when this all started we wouldn't be in this mess.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Moonlight Graham

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Moonlight Graham said:

We need to think on time scales of 50+ years from now.  Had we done that 25-30 years ago when this all started we wouldn't be in this mess.

 

Yes you would....China's middle class was already growing and BC was laundering money for them.    50 years ?    China thinks in much longer terms....going on 5,000 years.

[Michael Hardner]

37 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

IP theft.

It's zero sum because of IP theft ?  That's it ?

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

It's zero sum because of IP theft ?  That's it ?

Hauwei.  Money laundering.  Stealing Canada and everyone else's government secrets.  Comprising our elites.  How much more do you want?  You either understand what China is doing or you don't.

An easier question is what rules do they follow that they could get away with breaking?  Some fun reading:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7075248/canada-china-interference-permissive-target/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-01/did-china-steal-canada-s-edge-in-5g-from-nortel

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/1-in-5-companies-say-china-stole-their-ip-within-the-last-year-cnbc.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-canada-universities-research-waterloo-military-technology-1.5723846

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/chinese-researcher-escorted-from-infectious-disease-lab-amid-rcmp-investigation-1.5211567

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582

Edited November 17, 2020 by Moonlight Graham

[Moonlight Graham]

This is my favorite one:  Months before China researchers working in a Canadian government lab that researchers deadly viruses were escorted from the lab by RCMP last year after a "policy breach" (err, spying/stealing), they sent a shipment of ebola virus and 14 other viruses from Canada to Wuhan.  One of these escorted Chinese researchers won the GG's "Innovation Award" in 2018.  Which Chinese official paid off the Liberals to give her that?  The Liberals are a threat to our national security and need to be removed.

Good job Canada.  Yes let's help (and celebrate!) China with their biological warfare research.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canadian-scientist-sent-deadly-viruses-to-wuhan-lab-months-before-rcmp-asked-to-investigate-1.5609582

"Meanwhile, it appears the NML's shipper initially planned to send the viruses in inappropriate packaging and only changed it when the clients in China flagged the problem.

"The only reason the correct packaging was used is because the Chinese wrote to them and said, 'Aren't you making a mistake here?' If that had not happened, the scientists would have placed on an Air Canada flight, several of them actually, a deadly virus incorrectly packaged. That nearly happened," Attaran said."

Edited November 17, 2020 by Moonlight Graham

[Moonlight Graham]

"Xi Jinping lays out blueprint to make China a global superpower by 2050"

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/xi-jinping-lays-out-plan-to-make-china-a-global-superpower-by-2050

New Cold War.  Zero sum game.

[OftenWrong]

3 hours ago, Argus said:

Again, you don't seem to understand that a lower yuan is good for China. It makes their exports cheaper to Americans and American exports more expensive there. They play a lot of games to lower their currency's value.

What I understand is the pro-China lobby hates Trump but likes Biden, and that China is in a better place with Biden and the Dems, and the likes of Trudeau and the libs. Not that anyone in Canada would dare stand up to them.

You can argue, but the evidence given here speaks for itself.

[DogOnPorch]

5 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Yes you would....China's middle class was already growing and BC was laundering money for them.    50 years ?    China thinks in much longer terms....going on 5,000 years.

 

Always fun...the results of that laundering...

Requires flash-on...

https://www.crackshackormansion.com/

[Michael Hardner]

8 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

 

What are you willing to give up to save some money on cheaply made crap?

 

Like iPhones?

 

I'm following your argument here but also watching for markers of simplistic and reactionary thinking.

One thing for sure is that economic separation from China would be very difficult and painful.

It's not just a matter of not having Dollar Store trinkets to buy anymore.

[Michael Hardner]

6 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Hauwei.  Money laundering.  Stealing Canada and everyone else's government secrets.  Comprising our elites.  How much more do you want?  You either understand what China is doing or you don't.

 

To understand the situation is to understand all of the major costs and benefits of the relationship.

A major element of the US China trade war seems to be bleeding over into Canada, which is the idea that you can add tariffs and bring back manufacturing.

I don't see how that can happen.  And if that kind of approach drives how we talk about trade, then we aren't going to change anything.

[cannuck]

9 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

This is my favorite one:  Months before China researchers working in a Canadian government lab that researchers deadly viruses were escorted from the lab by RCMP last year after a "policy breach" (err, spying/stealing),

One of my closest friends is a computer geek who works in ag.  As the lead designer, he was isolated about 10 years ago for nearly 2 years to do a complete re-design of their automated feed blending systems (customized by ROP records - record of performance - so each area, pen, or even single animal could be fed a particular quantity and quality as needed).   He headed out at the end to their first international high tech business exhibition, where they were going to introduce their new feed management software as a presenter on day 2.  On day 1 he was approached more than once and propositioned to buy HIS OWN software - still supposedly a secret.   Chinese (actually red army) hackers target not just government but EVERY private and commercial computer they can access to steal IP.   And it has been going on for decades (also Russia does similar).

It is not just the Sunny Ways morons who ignored this, the so-called "conservatives" were equally culpable.   As usual, Canada (and with the one obvious Trump exception) the US share not only a border and culture, but a complete lack of balls in dealing with China.

[Moonlight Graham]

5 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Like iPhones?

One thing for sure is that economic separation from China would be very difficult and painful.

It's not just a matter of not having Dollar Store trinkets to buy anymore.

iPhones can be manufactured elsewhere.

Yes it would be painful, at least in short-term.  Also painful:  giving up global hegemony to genocidal totalitarian tyrants.