The road to 2020

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

1 minute ago, Boges said:

I've admitted this several times. Dems took the Rust Belt for granted. That's why Trump won. They knew they could target areas in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to take votes from Hillary.

Polling and analysis has nothing to do with the Dems licking their wounds from 2016 again. Any competent national poll for a presidential election surely should have known how the EC works, then and now.

Trump didn't take votes from Clinton that she never had in the first place.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

3 minutes ago, Boges said:

No, the border is closed. And it'll probably remain closed until the US get a POTUS that takes Covid seriously.

The US must be hurting for all that Healthcare Tourism they benefit from while refusing to provide all their own citizen's healthcare.

The border is not closed, just restricted. Thousands cross it each day.

Canadians can fly to the U.S. on several carriers.

Canadian women still have to seek abortions out of country because several provinces do not provide access to timely "reproductive care".

Boges · October 13, 2020

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Trump didn't take votes from Clinton that she never had in the first place.

OK, then votes from Obama.

Or at least people who stayed home. I suspect history won't repeat itself.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

4 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

You have to admit that the plan to put Harris in the big seat via the 25th Amendment is ingenious. But I wonder HOW MANY Democrats this stunt will piss-off? The Bernie Bros are pretty iffy as it is.

Well, imagine how pissed off Hillary Clinton is at the prospect of Harris being "the first".

DogOnPorch · October 13, 2020

Just now, Boges said:

OK, then votes from Obama.

Or at least people who stayed home. I suspect history won't repeat itself.

Pray if you're religious. It's all the rage.

DogOnPorch · October 13, 2020

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Well, imagine how pissed off Hillary Clinton is at the prospect of Harris being "the first".

She can write a book about it.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

1 minute ago, Boges said:

OK, then votes from Obama.

Or at least people who stayed home. I suspect history won't repeat itself.

Not even votes from Obama. That's not how elections work in the U.S. Voters make different decisions for many different reasons...each election...including staying home.

Shady · October 13, 2020

WestCanMan · October 13, 2020

2 hours ago, Boges said:

Kay.

Polling in State-by-State races weren't nearly as detailed as they are this time. That was the clear fault in 2016. Hillary did win the popular vote. So polling was correct, it was just irrelevant because Trump was able to win 3 states by a fraction of a percent.

Another thing to consider is the other candidates. This year they should play less a role.

It’s not like 2016 was ‘the dark ages’, it’s actually still the best indicator we have of polling accuracy.

Their excuses for being wrong don’t mean jack shit to me, they were just completely out to lunch.

Boges · October 13, 2020

5 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

It’s not like 2016 was ‘the dark ages’, it’s actually still the best indicator we have of polling accuracy.

Their excuses for being wrong don’t mean jack shit to me, they were just completely out to lunch.

I've admitted the Dems were beaten in key states, likely because of hubris.

Doesn't mean it will happen this year.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

25 minutes ago, Boges said:

I've admitted the Dems were beaten in key states, likely because of hubris.

Doesn't mean it will happen this year.

No....the premise is wrong. Those states were never Hillary Clinton's to begin with, anymore than they were Trump's. That's why we have elections....not just to play the blue, red, and purple game for pundits and pollsters.

The Democrats lost over 1000 federal and state seats while Obama was in office....still "Dem" states ?

Boges · October 13, 2020

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

No....the premise is wrong. Those states were never Hillary Clinton's to begin with, anymore than they were Trump's. That's why we have elections....not just to play the blue, red, and purple game for pundits and pollsters.

The Democrats lost over 1000 federal and state seats while Obama was in office....still "Dem" states ?

Ask Trump. He's eager to label states Red or Blue when they fit his narrative.

WestCanMan · October 13, 2020

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

What a great way to illustrate that you don't understand probability !

If you have a 1% chance of having a car accident today, I guess that means it will never happen right ?

Do you ever consider not posting your opinions, because of - you know - your obvious fallacies ? I'm just asking in a friendly way...

What a great way to illustrate that you don't understand 'statistics'! You have obviously never heard of 'standard of deviation'....

When pollsters say "92%" and especially "At this point, even a large polling miss would not be enough for Mr. Trump to win — it will take a sudden and striking change in the fundamentals of the presidential race", and then Trump blows her out by a lopsided margin like 306-232 - it's actual proof that they didn't know wtf they were talking about. They didn't get bit by the randomness bug, they were just wrong.

This isn't a case where they said 'this had a chance to go either way'. This is a case where they're saying, "we checked into it - we know exactly what's going to happen in this specific instance" and they had it upside-down. They yapped like liberals (= they looked like total fools).

For your edification:

1) people don't have "a 1% chance of ever being in a car accident in their lifetime". It's actually much higher than that. It's almost an eventuality.

2) This isn't really about true randomness, and you can't judge it as if it was just a binary option. Being close counts in this type of measurement. It's like "There's a 92% chance your child will be 4'9" tall" and they wind up being 7' tall. They weren't just wrong, they were clueless. They were so far outside of the SDev that their prediction was useless. If the kid was 4'8 or 4'10 you'd give them a pass but they failed, utterly. You'd never tell a family member to go ask for their opinion again.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

11 minutes ago, Boges said:

Ask Trump. He's eager to label states Red or Blue when they fit his narrative.

Has nothing to do with Trump....this political and media labeling game started long before Trump ever ran for office. They still haven't learned from 1984 when Ronald Reagan destroyed Walter Mondale...525 to 13 EC votes.

Edited October 13, 2020 by bush_cheney2004

WestCanMan · October 13, 2020

43 minutes ago, Boges said:

I've admitted the Dems were beaten in key states, likely because of hubris.

Doesn't mean it will happen this year.

Sure. But you can't blame anyone for completely doubting pollsters in 2020. Their track record has been awful.

Boges · October 13, 2020

25 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Sure. But you can't blame anyone for completely doubting pollsters in 2020. Their track record has been awful.

Note, National Polling was largely accurate in 2016, so was House polling in 2018.

Boges · October 13, 2020

26 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Has nothing to do with Trump....this political and media labeling game started long before Trump ever ran for office. They still haven't learned from 1984 when Ronald Reagan destroyed Walter Mondale...525 to 13 EC votes.

So you're open to the idea that Arizona, Texas and Georgia are most certainly moving in the direction of not being lay ups for Republicans.

bush_cheney2004 · October 13, 2020

13 minutes ago, Boges said:

So you're open to the idea that Arizona, Texas and Georgia are most certainly moving in the direction of not being lay ups for Republicans.

I am not emotionally invested in this or any other election. People who are put far more energy and anxiety into national and state polls.

The GOP's main objective should be to hold on to the Senate, which is far more important politically than Trump's fate.

Donald Trump is just another U.S. president, just like all the others.

DogOnPorch · October 13, 2020

1 hour ago, WestCanMan said:

Sure. But you can't blame anyone for completely doubting pollsters in 2020. Their track record has been awful.

Seeing that one can be fired...cancelled...shot in the face...for supporting Trump, me thinks the polls are about as accurate at predicting this election as my dog is at predicting the weather. Sure...he barks. But is he barking for rain or sunshine?

OftenWrong · October 13, 2020

50 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

Seeing that one can be fired...cancelled...shot in the face...for supporting Trump, me thinks the polls are about as accurate at predicting this election as my dog is at predicting the weather. Sure...he barks. But is he barking for rain or sunshine?

Yeah, that echoes my position. I hang up on pollsters. I tell em who I vote for and what I think is none of your goddam.

Poll that

DogOnPorch · October 13, 2020

13 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Yeah, that echoes my position. I hang up on pollsters. I tell em who I vote for and what I think is none of your goddam.

Poll that

That massive crowd of Cuban Americans protesting against the Democrats and Communism at the same time was quite the sight. As was Mike Pence's Prayer Gathering thing...holy cow...to use a pun. That was a LOT of Trump supporters. Made the rallies look like bar gigs...lol.

I see zero enthusiasm from the Democrats other than their hatred for anything America. Tearing down Lincoln? Douglass???? WTF?

DogOnPorch · October 13, 2020

I should also mention the Vietnamese-American people's massive support for Trump. These guys know what being tossed into boats by Leftists means. Note...flag is that of South Viet-Nam.

Miền nam việt nam muôn năm.

Edited October 13, 2020 by DogOnPorch

WestCanMan · October 13, 2020

3 hours ago, Boges said:

Note, National Polling was largely accurate in 2016, so was House polling in 2018.

?

They're like a ballerina that dropped a deuce in the middle of Swan Lake. They are famous for one thing now.

Shady · October 13, 2020

It’s funny that people so offended by Trumps behaviour, find this type of unhinged behaviour appropriate. CNN actually practicing good journalism. She has no answer for purposely refusing a covid relief bill.