Who will run for President in 2020?

[August1991]

Whether Trump or Rodham-Clinton is sworn in 2017, I think that it's clear now that in the 2020 presidential election, the incumbent will not have a natural advantage.

Moreover, Donald was born in 1946 and Hillary was born in 1947. (They're both Reagan old; Merkel was born in 1954, Putin 1952.) If either is alive/senile in 2020, they'll face serious Johnson/1968, Carter/1980 internal contests. Like Bush Snr/1992, they'll face serious external competition - heck, a Clinton defeated Bush Snr.

======

For 2016, I'm predicting now a Hillary 48%, Trump 42%, Johnson 4%, Green 2% on the popular vote. In the Electoral College, I dunno except that Rodham-Clinton will get a majority. (Trump will win Ohio; she'll win Arizona. What do I know... )

The popular votes are the numbers to look at. If she's far below 50%, she's definitely dead in the water for 2020.

========================

More broadly, what decent, good American citizen has the ego/money or name recognition to start the process in 2018?

After this campaign, I reckon that the 2020 presidency is wide open. (You have to be 35 years old; and American born.)* Sadly, you may also have to be psychotic.

Edited November 4, 2016 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

Kimberly "Kim" Kardashian West is already 36 years old, will be age 40 by 2020.    Is that psychotic enough for ya ?

[August1991]

25 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Kimberly "Kim" Kardashian West is already 36 years old, will be age 40 by 2020.    Is that psychotic enough for ya ?

Elvis Presley, American born, white, southern accent, born 1935. He's tanned, and alive(!), and ready to go...

=====

bc, I reckon that your republic is living through another change. Some 200 years later, your written Constitution is a remarkable document.

Edited November 4, 2016 by August1991

[kimmy]

Presidential nominee Ted Nugent and VP Allen West for the Republicans.

 -k

[Guest]

Snowden/Manning will have them beat.

[Wilber]

How about Michelle Obama vs Anna Navarro.

[Bonam]

Chelsea Clinton vs Ivanka Trump

[Rue]

If Hilary loses, Michelle Obama. If Hilary wins, her Vice President will run as he will have taken over from her after

she dies in office from "natural" causes.

If Donald gets elected he will die off natural causes and be replaced by his Vice President who runs in the next election.

If he loses Paul Ryan.

Jesse Ventura is a long shot but if he runs as an independent I predict he wins just in time to handle the invasion of UFO's.

 

 

 

[-TSS-]

I think the US presidential-races always start far too early but now you are really exaggerating.

[August1991]

On 11/4/2016 at 10:10 AM, kimmy said:

Presidential nominee Ted Nugent and VP Allen West for the Republicans.

 -k

Kimmy, I suspect this is your political perspective: Republicans/conservatives are crazy/bible/Christian people. The new Kimmy is progressive!

From my perspective, Hillary Rodham-Clinton will win in 2016. But in 2020 (assuming she's alive in 2020 and runs for re-election), she will be unelectable. Americans eventually get it right.

=====

I think that John Kenneth Galbraith made a similar comment about British/French political economy. The British argue; the French, uh, just do it. 

 

Edited November 6, 2016 by August1991

[kimmy]

13 hours ago, August1991 said:

Kimmy, I suspect this is your political perspective: Republicans/conservatives are crazy/bible/Christian people. The new Kimmy is progressive!

While I'm being slightly facetious in suggesting Ted Nugent and Allen West, it's not that far-fetched, is it? Based on the decision-making process we saw this year, I think it's fair to conclude that the primary voters in the Republican party weren't motivated by conservatism at all.  They didn't want conservatism, they wanted demagoguery, and by golly they got it.  Ted Nugent is a great demagogue who Tea Party types love despite his shady moral character, so he seems ideally poised to carry on the Trump legacy. He's a straight talker! He's not politically correct! He's mad as hell!  And of course Allen West is another Tea Party favorite who checks the right boxes: military service! Evangelical street cred! Bonus points: he's black!

Trump didn't win the nomination because he's conservative, and he sure didn't win because he's Christian.  If it were merely a test of religious conviction, he'd have finished last in the field.  Trump won for one main reason, which is that he expressed the anger that a large number of Republican voters feel.

They didn't want somebody to promote conservative principles, they wanted somebody to "get" Hillary. Somebody to call her a crook and a liar and tell the world he'd put her in jail.

They didn't want conservatism, they wanted somebody to rant about how illegal immigrants are taking the jobs and committing crimes.

They wanted somebody to rant about how the trade deals shipped all the jobs to China and Mexico.

They wanted somebody who hates Obama as much as they do.

They don't love Trump because he stands for anything conservative-- he really doesn't. They love Trump because he stands on a stage and gives voice to all the anger and grievance they feel.

And if that's the criterion for picking the next Republican nominee, I think Ted Nugent has as good a shot as anybody.

 -k

[August1991]

On 11/6/2016 at 10:42 AM, kimmy said:

....

They wanted somebody who hates Obama as much as they do.

They don't love Trump because he stands for anything conservative-- he really doesn't. They love Trump because he stands on a stage and gives voice to all the anger and grievance they feel.

And if that's the criterion for picking the next Republican nominee, I think Ted Nugent has as good a shot as anybody.

 -k

In all honesty, I had to look up "Ted Nugent".

Hate Obama? Love Trump?

=====

Kimmy, I reckon that you've got this all wrong about America - at least, the America that I know.

But imagine that America were as you wish it, Kimmy.

An Australian PM said it correctly recently: "Be careful what you wish for. You may just get it."  

 

 

 

[Hal 9000]

I think if the Dems can find someone who is openly gay, they'll go that route next - you know, to make history.

 

[The_Squid]

1 hour ago, Hal 9000 said:

I think if the Dems can find someone who is openly gay, they'll go that route next - you know, to make history.

 

Why would you think that?  Would you prefer closeted gay?  Who do you think the Republicans cans will pick next.... openly nazi, or openly KKK?

[bush_cheney2004]

The Republicans tried to pick a nominee who was openly Canadian, but he lost to Donald Trump.

[Hal 9000]

18 minutes ago, The_Squid said:

Why would you think that?  Would you prefer closeted gay?  Who do you think the Republicans cans will pick next.... openly nazi, or openly KKK?

I'm not being facetious, I'll even make my bets now.

[The_Squid]

17 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

I'm not being facetious, I'll even make my bets now.

I never said you were being facetious....  I asked why you thought that.....  and I asked who you thought the Republicans would nominate next...

[JamesHackerMP]

I think Chester Arthur or maybe James Buchanan was closeted gay, so it won't be a first.

Hillary won't run.  These days when you lose a general election for President, you're done.  Primary, that's OK but the general--you're done in politics (mostly...or at least presidential politics).

Edited November 12, 2016 by JamesHackerMP

[eyeball]

On 11/6/2016 at 7:42 AM, kimmy said:

They wanted somebody to rant about how the trade deals shipped all the jobs to China and Mexico.

 -k

That's actually something worth getting angry about. Of course siccing a billionaire who shipped out jobs himself on the problem will only feed the anger that sweeps the next demagogue to power.

 

It's a real shame Sanders wasn't Trump's opponent and while Sanders may not have won at least the real economic line dividing America would stand out in better relief. That chance has slipped away and now there's only anger left to give its definition to things.

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by eyeball

[Wilber]

The US doesn't have a trade agreement with China so what is he going to do, institute a 30% tariff on goods from China and every other low cost producer  or devalue the USD 30%? Either one will hurt Americans. 

[eyeball]

Basically he'll have to start a trade war to make America great again.

Figures there'll be another US War on...Whatever.

[Wilber]

Trade wars don't make anyone great.

[-TSS-]

The elction in four years time is not going to be another "incumbent president gets easily re-elected"-election like we have used to in the past few years. Trump will very likely be talked out of standing for re-election but if he still decides to seek re-election he may face a serious challenge from within the Republicans, which is totally against the tradition.

Namely, an incumbent President seeking re-election is challenged in primaries only by attention-seeking village-idiots but not by serious politicians. That may be different if Trump runs for another term.

 

[?Impact]

14 minutes ago, -TSS- said:

 Trump will very likely be talked out of standing for re-election but if he still decides to seek re-election he may face a serious challenge from within the Republicans, which is totally against the tradition.

 

Where were you in 1992? Pat Buchanan made a strong showing against Bush Sr. in the primaries. Although it wasn't enough to get him the nomination, or even win any of the contests, it did show a major break in Republican support for their own President. That was a much bigger factor in Bush losing to Clinton than Perot was (Perot siphoned votes from both Democrats and Republicans). 

[xul]

Probably no one will run for the job except President Trump...there is a joke:

In a small company, there were 2 warehouse workers---- just call them Area51 and Area52, according to the sections they worked for.

One day, the boss of the company called Area52 in and told him the company could only afford to hire one warehouse worker right now  so he was laid-off due to the shortage of work.

"Don't worry, Mr. Area52. I'll call you back in the first place once the business comes back. Meanwhile, I'll take care of your sector in person. "

"Why it is me, not Area51?" Area52 responded in disbelieve."All these years, I worked harder than him. All goods in my section are well categorized and put on shelves in tidy. And look at his sector. Everything is piled up randomly so that no one is able to find anything without him......look at the mess he has made! And you still choose to fire me not him?"

“I know,” the boss sighed bitterly."And that's why I have to keep him instead of you....."

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by xul