Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

[August1991]

The territory of "modern Ukraine" is a creation of Nikita Khrushchev - a Soviet of Ukrainian origin who decided, by fiat, to enlarge the Soviet Republic of Ukraine in 1960.

In fact, most people living in eastern Ukraine are Russian-speaking.

[To provide a Canadian perspective on this issue, imagine if Trudeau had arbitrarily decided in 1982 to change the borders of Canadian provinces and take northern Ontario - or Labrador - and subject this territory and people to the Quebec government.]

In short, the borders of modern Ukraine are a product of Soviet fiat.

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But as Mike Duffy would say... There's more!

Ukraine itself (of all places) has gone through this kind of people/territory/government question. Lviv (western Ukraine) was once a Polish city and then it was a wonderful example of multiculturalism under the Austro-Hungarian empire.

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Is it nationalism or "multiculturalism" that motivates the mobs in Kiev? Will the Ukraine separate/divide?

Edited February 23, 2014 by August1991

[August1991]

It will, because people that living in Ukraine are divided - east for russia, west for europe also this country has only 20 years of living and most of the goverment, clerks using their authority to steal money from people.

Corrpution level as in Africa, u need to pay if you want to run buisness. One billionare from Donieck controlling 50 politicans that creating law for him not for people of ukraine.

kris80, you make a good nationalist point. Edited February 23, 2014 by August1991

[-TSS-]

I think it would be a feasible solution. After all, Ukraine with its current borders is an artificial country.

[GostHacked]

Other places where a partition plan was in place or entertained was Iraq, Afghanistan, and recently Syria.

Divide and conquer.

[GostHacked]

Do we really need another situation like what divided Germany all those years ago?

[Michael Hardner]

Countries divide for good reasons and bad, but they divide. Germany was not divided by choice, but was occupied by two superpowers.

[bush_cheney2004]

Countries divide for good reasons and bad, but they divide. Germany was not divided by choice, but was occupied by two superpowers.

Revisionist history....Germany was "occupied" by several nations as the practical military way to end the war in Europe, and post war occupation was decided by Churchill, Stalin, and Roosevelt years before that. Great Britain (and its subjects) had the most experience dividing up other people's nations, the gift that keeps on giving today.

Edited February 23, 2014 by bush_cheney2004

[Argus]

Countries divide for good reasons and bad, but they divide. Germany was not divided by choice, but was occupied by two superpowers.

If I had a magic wand I would completely redraw the map of Africa, and eliminate most of the existing borders -- which were drawn by the colonialist powers with no regard to ethnicity. I would redraw those borders to put ethnic groups together into separate nations wherever feasible.

[Wilber]

Do we really need another situation like what divided Germany all those years ago?

The Germany that was divided in 1945 came into existence in 1871, it wasn't even 75 years old. Before that, it was Prussia and about a dozen other states. The whole history of Europe is about empires forming and fracturing into sovereign states. The Soviet Empire is just the latest.

[GostHacked]

Countries divide for good reasons and bad, but they divide. Germany was not divided by choice, but was occupied by two superpowers.

If Ukraine is divided it won't be the choice of Ukrainians either. It will be those two superpowers.

[-TSS-]

The African borders are definitely in the wrong places for most of those countries but tampering with the borders now would only create more problems than it would solve.

[August1991]

What a thread.

Like it or not, future States will be multicultural. That is, they will have no single State culture. The cost of travel has fallen dramatically and visitors/immigrants/travellers are inevitable.

In short, future States will be like the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and 19th century Lvov (Lemberg) is a model of a 21st century city.

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In the next year or so, eastern Ukraine may separate (or Russia may occupy it) and the western Ukraine mob may be free to join Europe - but Central Europe, like Canada or Obama, is a mongrel. The future society, even Japan, will be a mixed bag.

[Big Guy]

I believe that the future of Ukraine will be triggered in Kharkov (Kharkiv). It is the second largest city ( about 1.5 million) in the Ukraine. The majority speak Russian. At this time, the pro-EU and the pro-Russian demonstrators have set up at opposite sides of the main square. Both sides are setting up barricades and appear to be stocking up for a major confrontation. Kharkov is only about 20 km. from the Russian border and if the pro-Russian side starts to lose then Russians in civilian clothes would only be about half an hour away.

I believe that Kharkov may be the spark that starts Ukrainian partition.

[Topaz]

On the weekend, I was listening to a US radio and this person had lived in Russia and said he believed that Putin would never give up the Crimea because of the military base there. Today, the news announced that Putin has 150,000 troops standing ready, so this could end up in a civil war.

[-TSS-]

Ukraine is not the only former Soviet-republic where there is a large Russian-speaking minority. Ukraine just is in the most strategic position from an international view not least because of the Russian gas.

[Rue]

Ukraine is not the only former Soviet-republic where there is a large Russian-speaking minority. Ukraine just is in the most strategic position from an international view not least because of the Russian gas.

Yes its all about the gas and the navy port.

[Rue]

Revisionist history....Germany was "occupied" by several nations as the practical military way to end the war in Europe, and post war occupation was decided by Churchill, Stalin, and Roosevelt years before that. Great Britain (and its subjects) had the most experience dividing up other people's nations, the gift that keeps on giving today.

True but don't forget the French, Spanish, Belgians, Portugese and Dutch. They all were pretty good at it and I suppose if you want to go back we could talk of those Romans , Greeks, Huns, etc.

Germany was as one poster said an empire that switched so many times. I mean Prussia of the past, Hungary, Poland, Russia, germany, Hungary, Austria, it gets hard to know who was what with the rotating borders.

The Ukraine considers Crimea Ukrainian and illegally flooded by the Soviets with Russians as part of an ethnic cleansing. I would go so far as to use that strong a language from some of the articles I have read. I really do think if there is a civil war with Russia trying to occupy Crimea which I really think might happen given the navy port and gas pipelines involved, it could trigger unintended tragic consequences.

Putin has shown he is a ruthless psychotic thug, I just can't see Europe or the US at this point standing up to him. He was so embolded by Syria and Obama flubbing that I think he thinks he is on a roll and Obama is a joke and won't stop him.

I don't think Kerry huffing and puffing means much these days. Not after their step away from Syria and Iran.

This I think is a delayed reaction to Putin slapping Obama's ass in Syria and getting away with it. I just have no confidence in Obama to stand up to Putin and Europe, well we know they won' do a damn thing.

I think this shows that if the US is not policing the world, thuhgs like Putin will move in like the hyenas they are.

I know its not fair to always ask the US to protect the world but my point is no one but the US has in the past with this kind of b.s.

and we have all become so accustomed to the US policing the world and containing its Putins now that the US is turning inword because of its economic issues and turning away from the world stage, its going to cause this kind of vacuum.

I know the US may not be able to afford to be the no.1 power anymore but people are going to wish they were if this keeps going and China and Russia start dividing up the world.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Rue

[August1991]

The Ukraine considers Crimea Ukrainian and illegally flooded by the Soviets with Russians as part of an ethnic cleansing.

Well, what happened in Lemberg (Lvov)?

Is western Ukraine truly Ukrainian?

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Rue, like you, I am suspicious of nationalism. To me, this Ukrainian mob seems nationalist.

(I understand why Harper sent Baird off with a yellow/blue scarf around his neck but I fear that Harper - let alone Baird - quite understand how dangerous such nationalism is for Canada.)

Edited February 27, 2014 by August1991

[Rue]

You are dead on August.Just to back up your point there is ourroving ambassador for human rights in Turkey expressing concerns as the activities of their government (I detest Erdogan anyways) and of course theyspit back, what we are going to lecture them on human rights with what Quebec is doing?

Yep federalism, nationalism, all the isms they get a little tricky don't they. Point is its all partisan and whatever side you are on, you justify it with your partisan views.In my case I openly admit I am anti Putin's foreign policies in the Ukraine and anywhere else. To me he is just a recycled Stalinist sob.

[Bonam]

I don't think Ukraine will be partitioned, and I don't think it will escape Russia's sphere of influence. Controlling the Ukraine is something that a Russian leader would be willing to do almost anything for, including going to war, as can be easily gleaned from Russian history, most of which includes much of the territory of the Ukraine being a part of Russia, a satellite state of Russia, the Russian Empire, or more recently the Soviet Union. Indeed, the very name of the country is the Russian word for "frontier", because Ukraine has long been the Russian frontier, and in fact Russia itself originated in the Ukraine with the state of Kievan Rus, before much of its population migrated north due to invasions by eastern peoples.

[GostHacked]

Ukraine is not the only former Soviet-republic where there is a large Russian-speaking minority. Ukraine just is in the most strategic position from an international view not least because of the Russian gas.

It is a good point. There was some issues with the EU a few years ago where they had to negotiate a price regarding gas with Russia and Ukraine. Or the taps would be shut off.

[overthere]

Yes its all about the gas and the navy port.

Let's not forget about a whole bunch of some of ther best grain producing land in the world.

The Ukranian nationals are not in a good negotiating position despite a motivated, relatively educated population that wants to join the West.

They depend on Russia for gas for heating homes and industry.

The Russinas lust after their resources,

Worst of all, they have no money, the country is broke..

[-TSS-]

On may 25th a referendum in the Crimean peninsula whether to secede from Ukraine and if so whether to join Russia or declare an independent country.

[Argus]

On may 25th a referendum in the Crimean peninsula whether to secede from Ukraine and if so whether to join Russia or declare an independent country.

Nobody cares what the people in the Crimia think or want or say or how they vote. Putin is the only vote that counts, and even if the majority in the Crima want to stay part of Ukraine he will simply seize on the minority, use some pretex about the 'fascists' attacking Russians, and move more troops into Ukraine. His troops are already controlling the airports and the local legislature. Interestingly, that legislature refused some days ago, to back sescession. But now they're in there with Russian special forces. Want to bet they vote differently now? Putin has an unquenchable lust for power, and will never stop trying to acquire more of it over more territory.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Argus

[Boges]

I don't see how Ukraine, under new control, can expect Russia to leave the Crimea to them.

It would result in no war if they let Russia annex it.

Not that it's optimal but it's better than getting pwned by the Kremlin.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Boges