Federal Election Polls

[cybercoma]

Like 2 other recent polls, the Ontario numbers are hard to believe. Another outlier? Probably.

Nanos's regional numbers are even worse than his national numbers. He's got a methodology problem that doesn't work for campaign-period polling.

[Keepitsimple]

This election is very interesting, and nothing like has been seen for a long time.

I think Kathleen Wynne may very well be the wild card......her unpopularity does not yet seem to have affected Liberal support in the Nanos poll......but there's a good chance that it will now that she's high-fiving Trudeau at every turn. If she keeps talking, the Conservatives may gain another majority through Ontario. Ontario usually votes for the opposite party at the Federal level - and if there was ever a case to do so, it's in this election.

[Boges]

The NDP has never been relevant in Ontario outside of the North, Windsor or Downtown Toronto.

This election will be won in the 905 and "Ford Nation" in the 416. That's how Harper won his Majority in 2011.

[Evening Star]

The NDP has never been relevant in Ontario outside of the North, Windsor or Downtown Toronto.

"The NDP has never been relevant in Ontario outside of nearly half the province".

[Evening Star]

Raises some questions about the 'vote-splitting' story we always hear.

But this completely explains why the Tories have been attacking Trudeau more than Mulcair.

[Vancouver King]

One day after Conservatives sang "happy days are here again", along comes Abacus to rain on their parade.

NDP - 35

CPC - 29

Lib - 26

Grn - 6

Blc - 3

76% want a change in gov't and the regional Ontario numbers are:

NDP - 32

CPC - 30

Libs - 30

Nanos appears to have had it wrong in battleground Ontario.

[waldo]

One day after Conservatives sang "happy days are here again", along comes Abacus to rain on their parade.

NDP - 35

CPC - 29

Lib - 26

Grn - 6

Blc - 3

76% want a change in gov't and the regional Ontario numbers are:

NDP - 32

CPC - 30

Libs - 30

Nanos appears to have had it wrong in battleground Ontario.

oh snap! I put up a graphic image from Abacus Data with the same results... it even included a trend... here... let's try it again:

note to moderator: I've resized the graphic presuming that you turfed it (the original post) due to a "too large graphic"

[Vancouver King]

Here is a potential problem for Conservatives (from the newest Abacus poll). In answer to the question, "are you certain or fairly likely to vote?", more New Democrats answered in the affirmative than Conservatives.

This implies trouble in getting the core to the voting booth for Conservatives. Has this campaign become so gloomy so early for Tories they will stay home in droves?

Edited August 20, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Vancouver King]

Another Abacus finding that needs confirming - the regional breakdown for Quebec shows the NDP at 47%. Virtually 1 in 2 Quebec voters will cast a vote for Mulcair. Second place goes to Liberals at 20%.

I will believe this dominance when it is confirmed.

[Vancouver King]

Its confirmed. CROP released a Quebec-only poll today reflecting the exact numbers Abacus released previously (for NDP/Libs):

NDP - 47

Libs - 20

BQ - 16

CPC - 13

Quebecers like to back a winner and the NDP at 47% is 5 points ahead of their 2011 finish.

[cybercoma]

That wasn't Abacus it was CROP. http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/19/01-4893971-sondage-cropla-presse-le-npd-domine-sans-partage.php

[Vancouver King]

The Abacus poll on Poll Tracker has in Quebec:

NDP - 47

Libs - 20

The CROP poll released today has in Quebec:

NDP - 47

Libs - 20

There are differences between the two polls on the minor party numbers.

[cybercoma]

Oh, my bad. I didn't realize there were two polls with the same findings.

[Vancouver King]

New Forum poll today showing race is stabilizing:

NDP - 34

CPC - 29

Libs - 28

Bloc - 4

Grn - 4

One regional surprise - Atlantic Canada is now in the NDP column.

[cybercoma]

I live in NB. I will be very surprised if the NDP picks up any seats outside of 1 in NB, a couple in NS, and maybe 1 each in PE and NL.

[cybercoma]

The problem is the support is not concentrated enough in the ridings.

[waldo]

New Forum poll today showing race is stabilizing:

NDP - 34

CPC - 29

Libs - 28

Bloc - 4

Grn - 4

One regional surprise - Atlantic Canada is now in the NDP column.

updated seat projections, per CBC's Poll Tracker:

[CITIZEN_2015]

Thanks all very much for updates on Federal Election Polls.

Edited August 24, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Vancouver King]

I live in NB. I will be very surprised if the NDP picks up any seats outside of 1 in NB, a couple in NS, and maybe 1 each in PE and NL.

Poll Tracker seat projections has them at twice your estimate. Even with inefficient voter spread, it is hard to believe 39% regional support will only yield 5 of 32 seats.

[cybercoma]

The Atlantic Canada margins of error are very high. They only polled a little more than 100 people across 4 provinces. That doesn't inspire me with any sort of confidence that these numbers are accurate. Just like Nanos polling 250 across the country is nearly meaningless too.

[ReeferMadness]

An NDP minority government is far from the worst thing that could happen to Canada. I wonder what Trudeau would do in that circumstance.

[Vancouver King]

An NDP minority government is far from the worst thing that could happen to Canada. I wonder what Trudeau would do in that circumstance.

I believe he would make it work informally - for a time and for a legislative price. Both parties accomplish voters over riding priority, turning Harper from power while also affording the NDP an "apprenticeship" at the helm.

[Topaz]

This time around, the Opposition Parties will have the power. Even if the Tory got a minority, I would think the other parties would call a non-confidence vote and then the GG would have to ask the two parties if they could create a government, if not its back to an election. If the NDP or Liberal had the minority, to keep Tories out, they would have to join together and if the Greens get enough to be a party, there would be three vs one. I can see Harper retiring on his 6 million..no 4 million, he said he would give back 2 million of his pension.. yeah right.

[Vancouver King]

This time around, the Opposition Parties will have the power. Even if the Tory got a minority, I would think the other parties would call a non-confidence vote and then the GG would have to ask the two parties if they could create a government, if not its back to an election. If the NDP or Liberal had the minority, to keep Tories out, they would have to join together and if the Greens get enough to be a party, there would be three vs one. I can see Harper retiring on his 6 million..no 4 million, he said he would give back 2 million of his pension.. yeah right.

This scenario or a variation is beginning to look like the odds-on outcome. There isn't the slightest indication 8 weeks out that Conservatives are closing this race, indeed most recent polling data suggests Quebec and Atlantic Canada can be written off by the CPC.

With the baggage Tories must drag along - two recessions on their watch, uninterrupted budgetary deficits, Duffy/PMO scandal among many others - it seems highly unlikely this campaign can be salvaged.

[Smallc]

two recessions on their watch, uninterrupted budgetary deficits,

No one, other than people with very short memories, faults them for this.