Open warfare in South Ossetia

[myata]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia

Update 13 minutes ago

No it doesn't look like they're going to Tbilisi after all: Same Yahoo. If you care to actually read the story, you'll soon notice that most of apocaliptic claims are coming from the administration of Georgia, never indepently confirmed (why? isn't that what reporters are there for??). And often to be withdrawn within minutes, but who cares, the splash has already been made in the news agencies around the world.

As was said earlier, the line has to be drawn at a full invasion of Georgia proper. So far, there's no independent confirmation of anything like that, despite what seems to be dozens of foreign reporters broadcasting from Georgia. I'm sure US and its allies are closely monitoring the situation as well, with all means available to them, including satellites. So if anything like a massive invasion was indeed going on, we'd certainly hear lot more than hearsay from one group of reporters (as a matter of fact, there're some glaring inconsistencies in the story I'd like to point out. E.g anybody with about two grades of basic education and a map would have realized that "north" of Gori actually means "away from Georgia and towards Ossetia". And anyone with access to Google would have easily found out that the area is some 80 kilometers from the capital, i.e. already within an hour's drive; so, did the troops move away from the city or toward it? Funny how is it, that supposedly professional journalists reporting such a crucial news just couldn't be absolutely clear about what they saw? Or were it the editors of the story? Go figure).

[moderateamericain]

The real danger of this situation is that everyone has something to lose in this situation. Russia loses face if it backs down to the combine might of Europe and the US. Something it cant do with the largest Army in the world to its south (china). The USA loses face because a freely elected Democracy is crushed under by the EVIL russians. The rest of the world notices that the US does nothing. Which also might encourage smaller groups like Islamic Fundametalist groups or even larger nations. Europe loses a large source of Oil (the BP pipeline) which it cant afford to. Its like 3 dogs fighting over a piece of meat. The meat by itself isnt important its the dominance which is, the problem is someone is going to get bite.

Edited August 13, 2008 by moderateamericain

[M.Dancer]

The time to really start worrying is when they STOP talking about the evil US of A.

Oscar Wilde to the front desk....

[GostHacked]

What I don't get is this.

The two autonomous states/regions in Georgia (South Ottestia and Abkhazia). Russia seems to have influence on those two areas. Since they are autonomous, which means they run their own show, but has ties to Georgia. If they want to break away, Russia will help make it happen.

Do these two regions want to rejoin Russia? Or do they just want their own independance from Georgia.

Gerogia would put troops into both regions to ward off the Russians. Eventhough they are autonomous regions, they are still part of Georgia, and Georgia can send in troops anytime. I could be wrong in my view, but this is how I see it. So Russia made the mistake of crossing the border. Political influence only goes so far.

The US will send aid to Georgia.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,402982,00.html

WASHINGTON — President Bush has directed the U.S. military to lead a humanitarian mission to help displaced citizens of Georgia, who've been forced out of their homes following a Russian invasion last week in the northern portion of the country

[myata]

And most certainly, in the light of previous similar acts by the NATO and the US (like bombing of Serbia in Kosovo conflict, invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan).

Oh yes, and Israel's recent "self defense" in Lebanon. That wasn't "disproportionate" in any way, (over a thousand civilian dead, over kidnapping of two military personnel), and earned full approval from our democracy and human rights champions.

[moderateamericain]

No it doesn't look like they're going to Tbilisi after all: Same Yahoo. If you care to actually read the story, you'll soon notice that most of apocaliptic claims are coming from the administration of Georgia, never indepently confirmed (why? isn't that what reporters are there for??). And often to be withdrawn within minutes, but who cares, the splash has already been made in the news agencies around the world.

As was said earlier, the line has to be drawn at a full invasion of Georgia proper. So far, there's no independent confirmation of anything like that, despite what seems to be dozens of foreign reporters broadcasting from Georgia. I'm sure US and its allies are closely monitoring the situation as well, with all means available to them, including satellites. So if anything like a massive invasion was indeed going on, we'd certainly hear lot more than hearsay from one group of reporters (as a matter of fact, there're some glaring inconsistencies in the story I'd like to point out. E.g anybody with about two grades of basic education and a map would have realized that "north" of Gori actually means "away from Georgia and towards Ossetia". And anyone with access to Google would have easily found out that the area is some 80 kilometers from the capital, i.e. already within an hour's drive; so, did the troops move away from the city or toward it? Funny how is it, that supposedly professional journalists reporting such a crucial news just couldn't be absolutely clear about what they saw? Or were it the editors of the story? Go figure).

sigh... Of course they arent going to move straight into the teeth of the Georgian Military, Its like chess, you move your troops into position and then you attack. Obviously they were not going to go straight from Gori into Tsibili. Moving out farther gives them two things, space to set up a camp and Plenty of warning if Georgia goes on the offensive. Thats just prudent military thinking. If reporters can confirm an influx of russian troops into that area. Trust me they are just building up to hit the capital.

[M.Dancer]

What I don't get is this.

The two autonomous states/regions in Georgia (South Ottestia and Abkhazia). Russia seems to have influence on those two areas. Since they are autonomous, ......

They were autonomous regions...when they were part of the Georgian Soviet....South Ossetia is divided into the part run by separatists and manned by Russian troops and a part under Georgian political control.

The independence of Ossetia is not recognised by any nation except Russia.

[bush_cheney2004]

They were autonomous regions...when they were part of the Georgian Soviet....South Ossetia is divided into the part run by separatists and manned by Russian troops and a part under Georgian political control.

The independence of Ossetia is not recognised by any nation except Russia.

Right...it would be like the USA being the only nation to recognize Quebec as an independent nation, and providing military muscle to back that up. Any takers?

[SueNelson]

[myata]

Trust me they are just building up to hit the capital.

Trust you? Are you getting some backroom info direct from Kremlin? Or looking into crystal ball?

We'll see very soon. How long will you give for the all out assault on Georgia to begin?

[Army Guy]

bush_cheney2004:

Right...it would be like the USA being the only nation to recognize Quebec as an independent nation, and providing military muscle to back that up. Any takers?

OK where do we sign, you won't need any military muscle....unless of course you want to give her back....

[GostHacked]

Trust you? Are you getting some backroom info direct from Kremlin? Or looking into crystal ball?

We'll see very soon. How long will you give for the all out assault on Georgia to begin?

The assault already began.

[moderateamericain]

The assault already began.

If the russians hit the capital it will be within 3 days. Thats my guess. Got to get the job done before the rest of the world gets rolling and the cost of doing so politically is not worth it. Honestly they dont even need to hit it just control the center of the country and you essentially control the country.

[myata]

What I don't get is this.

The two autonomous states/regions in Georgia (South Ottestia and Abkhazia). Russia seems to have influence on those two areas. Since they are autonomous, which means they run their own show, but has ties to Georgia. If they want to break away, Russia will help make it happen.

Do these two regions want to rejoin Russia? Or do they just want their own independance from Georgia.

Would be good to start by reading some background info on the region, e.g on Wikipedia (Wikipedia: South Ossetia) or some news channels (BBC, AFP). There's many questions to be answered, e.g:

- is S/O a really (i.e historically and ethnically) a part of Georgia;

- what population wants (mind that population is ethnically divided, so answer to this question can be very complicated);

- what were the actions of different players around the conflict up to now;

- and during it's recent escalation;

- were Russians justified in responding in force and sending their troops in?

- what could be directions, principles and perspectives of future permanent settlement of this conflict.

That' s a lot to discuss in one post (or maybe even in one thread), so I'll only comment on the open conflict, which is most in line with the topic. I can take it that given the proximity and emerging imperial ambitions of the new Russian administration, their influence did not limit itself only to their peacekeeping role. However, given the limits of their power in the mandate (before break out of fighting, their force in the region were something like 150, correct me if I'm wrong), and continuing attention from the West, I simply can't see how they could realistically prevent or slow down the momentum toward integration with Georgia proper, if that had been the desire of the majority. Note also the results of the independence referendum (never recognized by the West). So, to me at least, and from information available, it appears that there hasn't been a strong momentum for integration with Georgia to begin with, and the years of "cold conflict" failed to change that.

Now to the role of parties in the open conflict. There're reports of provocations on both sides, prior to Georgian attack. There're records of diplomatic activities to prevent escalation of hostilites. But it is a fact confirmed by virtually all serious sources that the initial massive military assault was started by Georgia on Thursday night. The argument that it's impossible to "attack own territory" is a lame one - for once, attacks on own population do happen, and, in other places and times, we strongly condemn them (remember Saddam?); and secondly, as already pointed out, it's still a question whether the region is really a part of Georgia proper. There's also a strong possibility that Russian peacekeepers suffered heavy losses as a result of the attack. There's no independent confirmation, as there doesn't appear to be any independent reports about the first hours of conflict, but the pictures of Russan peacekeepers HQ can be seen e.g on BBC. There isn't much of it left. In that situation, i.e. peacekeepers under direct massive assault, there isn't one standard way of action. Sometimes we ignore (Dutch batallion in Srebrenitsa), sometime we respond in force (French response to attack on its peacekeepers in Chad was to wipe out country's entire airforce). Given large concentration of Russian population in the region, the nearest analogy I can think of would be something like an Israeli settlement in the West Bank under massive attack from a hostile neighbour; only imagine what would the response be; and who would call it "disproportionate"?

As more facts become available it'll be easier to construct complete (or at least, more consistent) picture of what's happened. But even now it's clear that there isn't only black and white sides in it. And the attempts to pick sides, before all the information becomes available, and despite obvious facts, will do (and haven't done) nothing to cool the confilct and start looking for the ways to its eventual resolution.

BTW, finally some independent information from Ossetia's side of conflict (BBC: Tskhinvali).

Edited August 13, 2008 by myata

[WIP]

Thats a pretty big claim, and i would hardly say a total of 67 mil us dollars spread out over 6 years could be considered a build-up....with last years being the largest, a whopping 34 mil which included 10 old UH-1 helo's....

In todays world 67 mil would be pocket change when considering just how much the US hands out world wide for assistance....plus the price of modern military equipment, 67 mil could not even purchase a modern fighter aircraft, you might get a really small fleet of trucks for that price....

If the US was serious at putting in a presence it would have been in the multi bil dollar range....

You seem to be referring to something called the Georgia Train and Equip Program, and you're also assuming that this is the only military aid provided by the U.S. -- this does explain why Georgia was motivated to send 2000 soldiers to Iraq -- the Coalition of The Willing appears more and more to be the Coalition of the Obligated!

Georgia is a tiny, impoverished nation of 4.5 million which now finances a military budget of 560 million U.S. dollars per year - and that doesn't include gifts, such as uniforms and body armour donated by the U.S. If all of the off-budget programs and black box projects are included, it would provide a significant amount to explain how they are financing a significant military buildup for a small nation.

And what exactly has Condi been doing during this time? Isn't she the one who speaks fluent Russian, and began her State Dept. training as a Soviet analyst? Did she, or anyone else in the Bush Whitehouse notice that the Georgians were building their new military bases right next to the disputed territories of Abkhazia and Ossetia? If not, they were once again asleep at the wheel!

[M.Dancer]

Georgia is a tiny, impoverished nation of 4.5 million which now finances a military budget of 560 million U.S. dollars per year - and that doesn't include gifts, such as uniforms and body armour donated by the U.S.

If you say so....

Georgia's economy has sustained robust GDP growth of close to 10% in 2006 and 12% in 2007, based on strong inflows of foreign investment and robust government spending. However, a widening trade deficit and higher inflation are emerging risks to the economy.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...g.html#Military

[WIP]

You must have grown up in the Warsaw pact then....for those of us who grew up in freedom, we thank NATO for preserving the freedoms we cherish and for being a bulwark against soviet expansionism.

??????

I'll just assume that you're not old enough to remember the 'duck and cover' drills! When I was in grade 1, we were taught to hide under our desks when we heard an air raid siren. I think the drills were scrapped by the mid-60's; and nobody seemed to pay attention to the air raid sirens after that time!

[M.Dancer]

??????

I'll just assume that you're not old enough to remember the 'duck and cover' drills! When I was in grade 1, we were taught to hide under our desks when we heard an air raid siren. I think the drills were scrapped by the mid-60's; and nobody seemed to pay attention to the air raid sirens after that time!

You can assume whatever you like and be just as incorrect as before...but I remember quite clearly it wasn't NATO we were worried about...nor were our Hungarian or Polish neighbours...

[WIP]

Very good job of illustrating the viewpoint of a paranoid and backward culture - ie, the Russians. Of course, people who are somewhat more literate, and the product of more civlilized and advanced cultures would just snicker and laugh at such deluded bullshit.

You don't blame the Russians because they have a right to ah, project power? By invading other countries.

Did I say that? I just thought that it was time for the Neocons and American Exceptionalists to consider for once, that other regions of the World have their own regional interests! If you were a Russian, you would agree with the majority of Russians that the U.S. and Western Europe has been working a strategy of carving out former Soviet territories to exploit their oil and other national resources, and trying to surround Russia with hostile states armed with American missiles. Sometimes the picture looks different when you're standing in a different spot in the room!

But you're filled with hysterical hate for the Americans because, apparently, they uh, want to project power by making friends and giving aid to countries.

What a joke.

Everyone who criticizes U.S. foreign policy (and yes, the Clinton Admin. was practicing the same strategy on a more limited scale) is immediately charged as being anti-American. This should make one consider the fascist nature of extreme nationalistic thinking which responds to criticism with charges of anti-Americanism!

[GostHacked]

With the Internet and computer technology there is another aspect of this conflict that has not been mentioned yet.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...813?hub=SciTech

NEW YORK -- Attacks by Russian hackers against Georgian websites, including one hosted in the United States, continued Tuesday even as Russian President Dmitri Medvedev ordered a halt to hostilities against Georgia.

Hitler'd

On Monday, hackers took over the website of Georgia's parliament and replaced it with an image that drew parallels between Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili and Adolf Hitler, Adair said.

Controlling the flow and type of information getting out is anther strategy the military can use to their ends.

[WIP]

If you say so....

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...g.html#Military

Besides the obvious benefits of the pipeline, would that foreign investment that has fueled 10% annual growth also include the investments in military aid?

[WIP]

You can assume whatever you like and be just as incorrect as before...but I remember quite clearly it wasn't NATO we were worried about...nor were our Hungarian or Polish neighbours...

I know that!

I was referring to how idiotic it was to try to hide under a desk from the H-bomb. In a world armed with nuclear weapons, it's stupid to be trying to set up a foreign policy around fighting resource wars! Any conflict that can be avoided, should be.

[M.Dancer]

Besides the obvious benefits of the pipeline, would that foreign investment that has fueled 10% annual growth also include the investments in military aid?

No, investment is investment, aid is aid, and military aid is a trifle.

[moderateamericain]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7558593.stm

Russian troops on the move. BBC is not sure to where though.

[Argus]

You seem to be referring to something called the Georgia Train and Equip Program, and you're also assuming that this is the only military aid provided by the U.S. -- this does explain why Georgia was motivated to send 2000 soldiers to Iraq -- the Coalition of The Willing appears more and more to be the Coalition of the Obligated!

Georgia is a tiny, impoverished nation of 4.5 million which now finances a military budget of 560 million U.S. dollars per year - and that doesn't include gifts, such as uniforms and body armour donated by the U.S. If all of the off-budget programs and black box projects are included, it would provide a significant amount to explain how they are financing a significant military buildup for a small nation.

And what exactly has Condi been doing during this time? Isn't she the one who speaks fluent Russian, and began her State Dept. training as a Soviet analyst? Did she, or anyone else in the Bush Whitehouse notice that the Georgians were building their new military bases right next to the disputed territories of Abkhazia and Ossetia? If not, they were once again asleep at the wheel!

I love the paranoia of the fringe left. No matter what happens in the world it's the Americans' fault. Georgia is eagerly pro-West, and wants to do whatever it can to ingratiate itself with NATO countries so it can get into the various western clubs like NATO and probably, eventually, the EU. The Americans, naturally enough, are more than happy to give some castoffs and assistance to a democratic, pro-western nation. Odd how the fringe people look darkly and suspiciously on this but shrug without care at Russian military attacks. Why would the Georgians be wanting better military gear and training? Gee, could it be because of the Russian armed separatists in two of its provinces who have a habit of exchanging sniper and mortar fire with Georgian troops? Ya think maybe they might figure they need to be able to protect their people and enforce order? That area of the world isn't exactly filled with soft-spoken, gentle people who observe the Geneva convention you know. That's to say nothing of the bloody Russians, as lawless a land as there's been in Europe in a century, where guns are the only thing which count for power.