U.S. Presidential Elections 2008

[sharkman]

He's the best choice for America too, because as David Frum said on the Daily Show last night, Huckabee is a "suicide pill." Nothing would assure a Democrat victory better than having a creationist evangelical from the South on the ticket.

Yeah, like the last time a creationist evangelical from the south made it into the Whitehouse was, uh, when Bush Jr did it twice.

[BubberMiley]

Yeah, like the last time a creationist evangelical from the south made it into the Whitehouse was, uh, when Bush Jr did it twice.

Really? And how did that work out?

[BubberMiley]

First off, who cares what David Frum thinks? It's obvious why he thinks that way, so what makes his opinions legitimate in this matter?

I agree it's obvious he thinks the way he does: he's a Republican and he wants to see them elected again. It's also obvious why I would like to see Huckabee get the nomination: I want them to lose.

But what makes Frum's opinions illegitimate?

[Carinthia]

Maybe the tears resonated with voters, making her appear more human.

When Hilary choked up and said "I just don't want to see our country go backwards", she was really saying "I just don't want to see our country go Barack-wards".

Either you are a humble person to the people or you are not. You can't play it like a card and she will, for the next week, at least.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Carinthia

[August1991]

Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there because Michigan's primary isn't going to count because it was pushed up. Against the rules, evidently. So I'm guessing there will be a pretty low voter turnout in Michigan.

The Hillary win in NH surprised me. The McCain win not so much. Just goes to show that 'it ain't over til it's over.'

Good posts all. I'll (randomly) pick AW to respond to.

Michigan. The primary rules have always been complicated but they are getting moreso. NH used to be in March. Now it's January. The states and parties must change the whole primary process. The principle is good but the process needs to change. How about regional primaries with a random selection of a few early states in each region? (I like the French two tour system but the spacing is only two weeks, not several months.)

The Hillary win surprised me too but earliers polls gave her the win in NH and losing in Iowa. The Iowa caucuses are weird. From now on, primaries make sense. SC, FL and Super Tuesday. Hillary should do well in these.

-----

This is the NOW moment of American politics - these next few weeks. By mid-February, we should know who the two challengers are but right now, who knows? [i've been wondering about a pre-1960 delegate fight Convention? Could 2008 be the year when a convention once again decides something, Canadian-style? The TV exposure would be phenomenal... ]

Obama. His middle name is Hussein and his father and grandfather were Muslim. He was raised by a Jewish mother. Then again, the US chose someone named Eisenhower to defeat Hitler under a president named Roosevelt.

I think Obama will not be the Democratic candidate but if he is, I'm more certain he'll lose. Not because of his name or skin colour but because of his inexperience. And therein lies the Democrats problem this quadrennial. The Dems have chosen identity politics. Hillary's a woman and Barack's a black. This is victim politics raised to an ideology/political strategy. It may work in what passes for the Democratic Party nowadays but it won't work in America at large. IMV, Hillary has the best chance at appearing mainstream (and thanks to money and organization and crass opportunism, she has the best chance of winning the Dem candidacy). But she's no Margaret Thatcher. She's a designer label candidate as in: "I wear Gucci and I vote Black."

Both Obama and Rodham are losers in November. Americans are not designer label people.

[i liked the comment of the NPR analyst - understandable to Canadians. The Dems always see a race between high-end and low-end candidates. Obama's a Starbucks candidate and Hillary's a Wal-Mart candidate. The Wal-Mart candidate always wins and the only chance Obama has is that he'll get the Black vote, if it turns out for primaries.]

---

On the Republican side, I figure that McCain has the best chance in November but he may not get the nomination. Why? Like Guiliani, he's not enough capital-R "Conservative". McCain's too environmental and too MOR.

So, who's left? Huckabee? I think the Lowell Weicker/Jerry Ford wing of the Republican party will be decisive this time out.

All things considered, the real race is between McCain and Romney. But who knows.

Hey kids, welcome to a real democracy and real democratic politics and a stable, civilized society. We all know the US will have a president in 2009 but no one now knows who it will be. What other country in the world chooses its Head of State in such a manner? France. The US and France are true democracies.

Edited January 10, 2008 by August1991

[sharkman]

Just caught some of the Republican debate on Fox from S.Carolina. They had a group of about 30 who admitted they were quite likely to vote, and had them electronically vote on each response given to the moderators. These voters picked Thompson as the over all winner of the debate, and from what I saw, he did quite well.

But Romney, McClean, Rudy and Huckabee all did pretty well I thought, I couldn't pick a strong winner.

[August1991]

Just caught some of the Republican debate on Fox from S.Carolina. They had a group of about 30 who admitted they were quite likely to vote, and had them electronically vote on each response given to the moderators. These voters picked Thompson as the over all winner of the debate, and from what I saw, he did quite well.

But Romney, McClean, Rudy and Huckabee all did pretty well I thought, I couldn't pick a strong winner.

While sitting in a motel in North Carolina, I watched most of the debate and saw the interviews with the CNN focus group afterwards. It's worth noting that while they liked Thompson, most felt he wouldn't win. The common phrase was that his debate performance was too little, too late.

Of the six, you can exclude Paul immediately. There is no way he'll win the nomination. I also excluded Romney. He's too much of a cookie-cutter, Central Casting candidate. That might work in a state Lieutenant-Governor election but it doesn't work when running for president. Romney is too pap.

That leaves Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani and Thompson.

IMV, Thompson had the right gravitas but then, that's all he had. Thompson is like LBJ without the political skill. If you wanted to hire an actor to play LBJ, you hire Thompson. But Thompson is no cutthroat politician. He's just some big, gruff, big picture guy who wants to be president. In a sense, Thompson is like Romney except Thompson is from the A-list of actors. (In the debate, Thompson played a hard right card, talked of Reagan and accused Huckabee of being too liberal. Huh?)

Giuliani. Giuliani is a detail guy. He talks in a quick staccato and has an answer for everything - not becuase he's a know-it-all (although he probably is) but because he micro-manages. Giuliani is a mayor. A mayor knows his boroughs and even his streets. You can't manage the executive office the way you manage a mayor's office and the White House is not at all like Gracie Mansion. Giuliani would be a Jimmy-Carter disaster as president but anyway, the Republicans won't nominate him.

This leaves Huckabee and McCain. Huckabee is the wild card. He's interesting but a trifle too slick. I think that it's his slickness that will bring him down, not his Baptist, creationist roots.

If McCain can keep the various Republicans happy enough to give him the delegates he needs to win (and I think by default he will since none of the other candidates can do better), then McCain will win the Republican nomination. In November, McCain will do well against whomever the Democrats put up - Obama or Clinton.

I think McCain has wisely his eye on this. In teh debate, he hit all the right points he'll need to make to ensure a safe majority in November. Government spending, firm hand abroad, the environment, confidence in the American economy. He even had the best line about outsourcing and displaced workers. He's right on immigration.

Right now, I'd predict a McCain-Clinton election that will seem an anti-climax after the primaries. Now, who will the running mates be?

Edited January 12, 2008 by August1991

[BubberMiley]

Now, who will the running mates be?

Obama and Lieberman?

[Oleg Bach]

Obama and Lieberman?

Obama is a tiny little man - McCain is an old man about to go a dithering - Hillary is a cut throat opportunist, who's ambition far out weighs her sense of public service...and the rest are also of inferour quality - what ever happened to dynamic powerful charismatic individuals who's hat size surpass their shoe size - are there no leaders left to be elected? Are we to suffer some back room committee that we will never see while some second rate human being takes acting lessons in the back room of the White House? There are no leaders - it's a huge corporation running on auto-pilot..and things will get worse.

[bush_cheney2004]

...Are we to suffer some back room committee that we will never see while some second rate human being takes acting lessons in the back room of the White House? There are no leaders - it's a huge corporation running on auto-pilot..and things will get worse.

Well yea....you don't get any say in the matter. Americans, if they choose, get to vote. Corporations are great...greed is good.

[Rue]

The people that i am a fan of are.... John Mccain, even though he has toed the party line on the war in Iraq, he has shown himself to be an old time acutal CONSERVATIVE. As far as i know, hes much less religious then most conservative candidates which to me is a good thing. That old seperations of church and state thing...

Mayor Juliani, Im really curious about this man, he preformed brilliantly around 9/11, so we know he can handle a crisis on a large scale, but id be intrested to hear his thoughts on the war, and what direction he would take it.

On the liberal side, I think Hilary Clinton is really doing the right thing in sticking to her guns on the war. If shes anything like her husband, she will be fiscally conservative and socially liberal. If you look at Bill clintons spending record, he actually surrounded himself with people who improved the economy. As for Baraka, i really cant speak intelligently on him, the only thing i heard of him is he had ties with chicago black panther. I dont know how true that is, so dont take that to heart.

Anyways, post away your opinions, if you would like to see someone else run, by all means, post a name.

If I was American I would vote for Obama. If Hilary won, I would vote for John McCain. I think Hilary Clinton has dirty baggage and trying to spit at Obama as a junior to her is b.s. She is also a junior Senator and he has far more elected office experience then she has and more to the point Obama has no real estate scandals and people committing suicide over his real estate deals.

McCain is an honourable man he is the best of a bad lot of choices on the Republican side. On the demo side, Obama not Hilary has the best ability to unite and rejuvenate the US both on the world stafe and internally between Reps and Dems.

The above opinions are expressed by someone who thinks Ron Paul is a right extremist racist wack job.

[Carinthia]

If I could, I would vote for Obama. Hillary supported Bush in his quest for war, although now she says she thought she was voting for inspectors to go into Iraq to look for WMD's. Bull!! She said yesterday on Meet the Press that she wasn't the least bit worried about Obama prior to the New Hampshire primary. If she wasn't, why did she get all choked up and act clearly distressed the day before? If she wins I would vote for Huckabee. McCain is another war supporter.

[gc1765]

If I was American I would vote for Obama. If Hilary won, I would vote for John McCain. I think Hilary Clinton has dirty baggage and trying to spit at Obama as a junior to her is b.s. She is also a junior Senator and he has far more elected office experience then she has and more to the point Obama has no real estate scandals and people committing suicide over his real estate deals.

McCain is an honourable man he is the best of a bad lot of choices on the Republican side. On the demo side, Obama not Hilary has the best ability to unite and rejuvenate the US both on the world stafe and internally between Reps and Dems.

The above opinions are expressed by someone who thinks Ron Paul is a right extremist racist wack job.

Couldn't have said it any better myself...

[Carinthia]

Huckabee: Amend Constitution to be in 'God's standards'

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Huckabee_Ame..._Gods_0115.html

The United States Constitution never uses the word "God" or makes mention of any religion, drawing its sole authority from "We the People." However, Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee thinks it's time to put an end to that.

"I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution," Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. "But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view."

When Willie Geist reported Huckabee's opinion on MSNBC's Morning Joe, co-host Mika Brzezinski was almost speechless, and even Joe Scarborough couldn't immediately find much to say beyond calling it "interesting,"

Scarborough finally suggested that while he believes "evangelicals should be able to talk politics ... some might find that statement very troubling, that we're going to change the Constitution to be in line with the Bible. And that's all I'm going to say."

Geist further noted of Huckabee that if "someone without his charm," said that, "he'd be dismissed as a crackpot, but he's Mike Huckabee and he's bascially the front-runner."

[August1991]

If I was American I would vote for Obama. If Hilary won, I would vote for John McCain.

IOW, you are like many Americans who really, really dislike Hillary Clinton. She has high negatives but that doesn't mean she can't win.

Bush Jnr also has high negatives and he's president.

Huckabee: Amend Constitution to be in 'God's standards'

...

Geist further noted of Huckabee that if "someone without his charm," said that, "he'd be dismissed as a crackpot, but he's Mike Huckabee and he's bascially the front-runner."

Other than the first 10 amendments, it took over 200 years to amend the US Constitution 17 times. In the four years of his first term, Huckabee apparently plans to equal that record. What constitutional amendment has he not proposed?

As to front-runner status, we'll find out tonight. I think McCain will win Michigan or come very close.

Indeed, I think the problem for the Republicans will be accepting McCain as their default candidate. McCain so far has been aiming to the fall campaign and he's ignored the Republican base. He's very tough on Iraq and I think this will see him through. I think too that he'll bring many around to his thinking on the environment and immigration.

The Republican base has never felt comfortable with McCain.

[Carinthia]

Has there not been a bit of tampering with the U.S. Constitution 'by you know who' in the last 7 years? As in precedent setting?

Edited January 16, 2008 by Carinthia

[BubberMiley]

She has high negatives but that doesn't mean she can't win.

Bush Jnr also has high negatives and he's president.

He didn't have high negatives when he won though.

[bush_cheney2004]

He didn't have high negatives when he won though.

Well...yea..he kinda did...but he had higher favourables than Kerry, natch.

President Bush may have a "solid lead" over John Kerry in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, as the Tuesday Washington Post headline put it, but on Monday night ABC's Peter Jennings managed to emphasize the negative for Bush as he stressed how "the President is vulnerable in some areas" with 60 percent believing we're "bogged down in Iraq" and 51 percent who "say the war was not worth fighting."

[bush_cheney2004]

Well...yea..he kinda did...but he had higher favourables than Kerry, natch.

President Bush may have a "solid lead" over John Kerry in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, as the Tuesday Washington Post headline put it, but on Monday night ABC's Peter Jennings managed to emphasize the negative for Bush as he stressed how "the President is vulnerable in some areas" with 60 percent believing we're "bogged down in Iraq" and 51 percent who "say the war was not worth fighting." - Sep 2004

[jdobbin]

The Michigan primary results are in and Romney has won the.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22660529/

Mitt Romney was projected by NBC News to take a narrow victory over John McCain in Michigan's Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, adding another wrinkle to a nomination fight that has defied a clear favorite.

Early election returns showed Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, leading with about 37 percent of the vote to McCain's 31 percent. Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, trailed.

I wonder if issues of the economy play more to Romney's strengths than McCain's.

[gc1765]

What the heck happened to Giuliani? 3%??

[August1991]

The Michigan primary results are in and Romney has won the.

Can we have, like, one thread on this topic? (I prefer this one because it has 2008 in the title.)

Romney was attracting 39 per cent support, while McCain had 30 per cent and Huckabee had 16 per cent.

CP

With a turnout around 20%, I'd call that a decisive (and critical) win for Romney. So, we have Huckabee, McCain and Romney winning in the first three (if we ignore Romney's "win" in Wyoming). The Republican race is all over the place (that was pretty much a given) so it's Super Tuesday that will decide.

Then again.

We could have a hung convention. IOW, we could go back to a pre-1960 US world (modern Canadian world) where it's undecided going into the convention. I think delegates are locked into their choice on the first ballot but not on any subsequent ballots. TV would love the drama of a real convention. It may even boost interest in the political process. Maybe we should start a thread on delegate strength and ex-officio delegates. I believe Hillary has most of those. Who gets them on the Republican side?

He didn't have high negatives when he won though.

Bush had high negatives in 2004.

Has there not been a bit of tampering with the U.S. Constitution 'by you know who' in the last 7 years? As in precedent setting?

Most presidents push the envelope. The worst offender was FDR and he got away with it by stacking the Supreme Court. I suspect Bush Jr's envelope-pushing won't last longer than a decade.

Whose to blame? If a Democratic Congress had confirmed more people like Bork, this wouldn't be an issue. Instead, the justices are activists.

Edited January 16, 2008 by August1991

[Charles Anthony]

Can we have, like, one thread on this topic? (I prefer this one because it has 2008 in the title.)

Yes.

The following two previous threads have been merged together:

Presidential Elections, 2008

2008 us presidency candidates, whats your opinion?

As with all merged threads, the original posts from each of the original ones have been preserved in chronological order.

[JerrySeinfeld]

Well...yea..he kinda did...but he had higher favourables than Kerry, natch.

President Bush may have a "solid lead" over John Kerry in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, as the Tuesday Washington Post headline put it, but on Monday night ABC's Peter Jennings managed to emphasize the negative for Bush as he stressed how "the President is vulnerable in some areas" with 60 percent believing we're "bogged down in Iraq" and 51 percent who "say the war was not worth fighting."

I would love to hear the telephone conversation in this push poll:

Tellephone rings at Joe Gump's house in rural Iowa.

Gump: "Uh....haylo thar?"

Pollster: "Hello Mr. Gump - can you please answer a few questions for a poll?"

Gump: "ummmm...shoore why the hayl nawt!"

Pollster: "First, based upon the number of innocent women and childeren who have been killed, as well as good old fashioned american young men maimed or killed with no real progress in the Iraq war, woould you say that the U.S. is "bogged down" in Iraq?"

Gump: "That sounds abayout raaat"

Anyway - Giuliani is putting all his eggs in the big states' basket...starting with Florida.

If Romney is the GOP candidate and Hillary is the Dem, I think I'll puke.

I think I like McCain right now...

[bush_cheney2004]

...I think I like McCain right now...

Yes, Senator McCain, a decent and honorable fellow will certainly do, but I don't think he can win in the general election. Like Bob Dole (or even John Kerry), he will find that old war veterans from the Senate are not prime presidential candidates. It's a brutal showcase of politics and personality.

The SNL writers will expose the best and worst in these candidates (if they are not on strike). Just ask Al Gore.