U.S. Presidential Elections 2008

[jazzer]

I'd like to see a McCain-Giuliani Ticket myself. I think it would absolutely stomp on a Hillary-Obama or Obama-Hillary ticket. They'd take all the Red States Plus New York and Florida which is an easy victory.

Well, if Iowa was any indicater of things to come, your boys will be in last place.

[JerrySeinfeld]

Well, if Iowa was any indicater of things to come, your boys will be in last place.

um - i wouldn't bank on Iowa this time out: Reverend Huckabee's 23% sales tax (among other things) won't fly too far in this race when we get to the big states....

[Sulaco]

Well, if Iowa was any indicater of things to come, your boys will be in last place.

It wasn't. Perhaps I am wrong but I can't remember the last time Republican turnout in that state outstripped Democrat turnout. You'd be well served to save your glee for when your party of choice trounces the other in the general election.

And of course you're dealing with the hardcore.

One can argue that Iowa is indicative of the fact that the Democrats in Iowa are far more left of centre than the Republicans are right of centre. THus in Iowa a lot of nuts are ready to take the time off to caucus. Or one might say something else. Or something else yet.

[JerrySeinfeld]

It wasn't. Perhaps I am wrong but I can't remember the last time Republican turnout in that state outstripped Democrat turnout. You'd be well served to save your glee for when your party of choice trounces the other in the general election.

And of course you're dealing with the hardcore.

One can argue that Iowa is indicative of the fact that the Democrats in Iowa are far more left of centre than the Republicans are right of centre. THus in Iowa a lot of nuts are ready to take the time off to caucus. Or one might say something else. Or something else yet.

McCain will win NH tomorrow.

I say it again: He is the only one in the race (both parties) who actually acts like a president - not som ninny wannabe weathering an endless job interview (the rest of the field - both parties).

[capricorn]

I can't help thinking Hillary just wants so much to sound like a man when she speaks - and she's fricken boring to listen to.

I watched the debates too. Hillary's using a lot of terminology which most ordinary folks are not familiar with. I was thinking it would be a good thing to have a dictionary handy when she speaks. For example, she used the term "evidentiary" a few times to describe her accomplishments. Why couldn't she just use the word "proof" to make her point.

Fred actor dude was completely unprepared and unimpressive. The more he talks the worse off he is.

Nice guy but he should stick to acting.

Mitt Romney isn't likeable. I felt like punching him in the face half the time.

Arrogant is what he comes out as.

Ron Paul is quickly lokoing like a small timer with one or two issues typical of Libertarians: the war and monetary policy.

He looked out of place to me and a bit of a nutty professor.

Giuliani was the most eloquent, on message, clear and straightforward... He also lacks that warm politico Bill Clinton-esque quality which makes voters fall in love with him.

Rudy's a doer as he proved as Mayor of New York and he fails to inspire.

McCain by far looked the most presidential of anyone from either party. He was calm, clear and unwavering. He was also able to give examples of how he hasn't shifted with public opinion - a quality only held by the greats such as Reagan and GW Bush.

He's my favourite of all candidates from both camps so far.

[JerrySeinfeld]

Looks like we agree on last night's debates...

I watched the debates too. Hillary's using a lot of terminology which most ordinary folks are not familiar with. I was thinking it would be a good thing to have a dictionary handy when she speaks. For example, she used the term "evidentiary" a few times to describe her accomplishments. Why couldn't she just use the word "proof" to make her point.

That's funny - I actually heard the word "excoriate" come out of her mouth. I know a few people like that personally - and on this forum - who think an expansive vocabulary equates with wisdom...NOT.

I quit using that stunt in first year U when my english prof scolded my essays by telling me to stop admiring my point and just to make it with clarity. Hillary could use said advice.

[Kitchener]

I understand your logic but I think you apply it to the wrong party. It's the Dems that are a strange, hard-to-keep-united coalition.

Granted, by and large. But in this case, they -- and I suspect some moderate Republicans -- are united by their horror at what Bush/Cheney have done to the country. The current admin has done what the Dems couldn't do: successfully herd the cats.

Johnson said it himself that by passing the civil rights legislation, the Dems were committing suicide in the South for a generation or more.

True enough. And what a sad commentary on the Republican domination in the South.

[sharkman]

Some have critcized Obama, saying he has little of substance to say, and I can't disagree. But I don't think it's a bad thing in the realm of the sound bite and the popularity contest.

The electorate generally does a pretty shallow analysis, and tends to have a herd mentality. Playing to those characteristics is never a bad move.

[August1991]

Good post Jerry.

I'd like to see a McCain-Giuliani Ticket myself. I think it would absolutely stomp on a Hillary-Obama or Obama-Hillary ticket. They'd take all the Red States Plus New York and Florida which is an easy victory.

I don't see Giuliani, Hillary or Obama playing second fiddle to anyone (maybe Obama).

At this point, with NH results yet in, I'd predict a President-elect McCain in November. I think Americans want a re-assuring old guy at the helm now.

To be honest though, these races are impossible to predict.

He looked out of place to me and a bit of a nutty professor.

The radical fringe have planted small Canadian-style Ron Paul signs all over the place. In the US, 0.01% of the population still means 30,000 people. Goofy. Edited January 8, 2008 by August1991

[marcinmoka]

Wow. Looks like my wish for a McCain victory is seemingly closer to reality.

Than again, I never imagined Huckabee's quick rise to prominance. Granted, I don't believe he will maintain the momentum he has carried so far in the larger states, which is why I would not be suprised to see Huckabee eventually throw his weight behind McCain in the final stages, and that would be a MASSIVE boon to McCain's tarnished credibility amongst the religious/rural voters.

Anyone have any stats on what a McCain - Obama showdown would produce?

[JerrySeinfeld]

Wow. Looks like my wish for a McCain victory is seemingly closer to reality.

Than again, I never imagined Huckabee's quick rise to prominance. Granted, I don't believe he will maintain the momentum he has carried so far in the larger states, which is why I would not be suprised to see Huckabee eventually throw his weight behind McCain in the final stages, and that would be a MASSIVE boon to McCain's tarnished credibility amongst the religious/rural voters.

Anyone have any stats on what a McCain - Obama showdown would produce?

McCain SHOULD mop the floor with him. From the years have followed US politics McCain has always stuck to his guns, generally ignored partisanship and tried to do "the right thing". That should bode very well in a general election against Obama who is trying to portray himself as a "uniter" - in fact they may neutralize eachother in that realm which would leave clarity on positions, experience and foreign policy as big deciding factors - McCain has an edge on each one of those.

The wild card is this: Liberals and hollywood types are DYING to make this a historic vote (ie. first woman / first black President).

As always with lefties, they're so obsessed with race and gender, they'll vote that way based upon it, and not upon the issues.

I can just picture the Oprah / The View / Hollywood crowd cooing all the way through the campaign. This could be enough to tilt the scales for Obama...or it might get old by the time the polls actually open. That's the great thing about US politics - Pres. campaigns are too long for fads and emotion to win the day.

[Higgly]

McCain SHOULD mop the floor with him. From the years have followed US politics McCain has always stuck to his guns, generally ignored partisanship and tried to do "the right thing". That should bode very well in a general election against Obama who is trying to portray himself as a "uniter" - in fact they may neutralize eachother in that realm which would leave clarity on positions, experience and foreign policy as big deciding factors - McCain has an edge on each one of those.

The wild card is this: Liberals and hollywood types are DYING to make this a historic vote (ie. first woman / first black President).

As always with lefties, they're so obsessed with race and gender, they'll vote that way based upon it, and not upon the issues.

I can just picture the Oprah / The View / Hollywood crowd cooing all the way through the campaign. This could be enough to tilt the scales for Obama...or it might get old by the time the polls actually open. That's the great thing about US politics - Pres. campaigns are too long for fads and emotion to win the day.

Obama.

Republicans = Brian Mulronery.

Just saying.

[marcinmoka]

McCain SHOULD mop the floor with him.

In my humble opinion, I agree with the above normative statement, but I was asking about the potential run-off polls (although they mean squat in the grand scheme of things), but I would still be curious.

Obama, while coming off as very genuine, still seems quite inexperienced, perhaps naive in the way Washington works. I understand his appeal, but being likable and intelligent (which he is) are not the only qualities one needs to run the most powerful nation in the world. And while Obama would cast a positive image of the U.S abroad, McCain seems the only republican candidate, who amazingly ( despite his well known security and international relations credentials) would do the same.

The wild card is this: Liberals and hollywood types are DYING to make this a historic vote (ie. first woman / first black President).

Yes, and no. While one element is wishing to do so, you must not forget that Clinton and Obama are also the MOST SENSIBLE of the democratic candidates i.e with substance. After all, you didn't see Hollywood voting for Sharpton en masse, did you?

[jdobbin]

Well, the first primary is in. The warm-up from the Iowa caucus showed the surge of Huckabee and Obama. The New Hampshire primary look to show that the force of personality of McCain once again wins over people of the Granite state. It is still early but Clinton looks like she is about to eke out a victory. Exit polls showed that the Democrats were voting on the issues.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/08/nh.main/index.html

- Sen. John McCain will win the New Hampshire GOP primary, CNN projects.

Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a narrow lead over Sen. Barack Obama, early results show.

With 17 percent of precincts counted, Clinton had 40 percent of the vote to Iowa caucus winner Obama's 36 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 17 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 4 percent, and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich had 2 percent.

Edwards will finish third, CNN projects.

It is still early and the Democrat vote could change.

[BubberMiley]

-

Edited January 9, 2008 by BubberMiley

[M.Dancer]

I think it would be funnier if Obama dropped his first name in favour of his second.

[sharkman]

I hadn't been watching the polls, but I must say the win in NH by Hillary is almost shocking what with the Obamites declaring him the next president already. I guess nothing like election season for wild predictions.

And McCain? This thing is really getting interesting.

[BubberMiley]

I hadn't been watching the polls, but I must say the win in NH by Hillary is almost shocking what with the Obamites declaring him the next president already.

I've been watching the polls and coverage in general, and I haven't heard any Obamawanabes declaring him the next president. Clinton's lead is very strong nationally and she has way, way more promised support from super delegates within the party. She's also guaranteed Michigan because Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there.

People were and are commenting on what appears to be considerable momentum on Obama's part. If he manages to sustain it through Super-duper Tuesday on February 5, he's got it. The odds are still well-stacked against him though.

[Carinthia]

Could it be that the media fudged the poll numbers to sway the vote re Obama/Hilary? Like they've never done that before. If they did, the amazing thing is, this time it didn't work. Perhaps it never has worked and all the blaming of the media in the end means nothing, as people will inevitably vote how they want. I would imagine that all the electoral academics will be studying tonights fiasco for many months to come.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Carinthia

[Guest American Woman]

She's also guaranteed Michigan because Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there.

Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there because Michigan's primary isn't going to count because it was pushed up. Against the rules, evidently. So I'm guessing there will be a pretty low voter turnout in Michigan.

The Hillary win in NH surprised me. The McCain win not so much. Just goes to show that 'it ain't over til it's over.'

Edited January 9, 2008 by American Woman

[kengs333]

McCain will win NH tomorrow.

I say it again: He is the only one in the race (both parties) who actually acts like a president - not som ninny wannabe weathering an endless job interview (the rest of the field - both parties).

The problem with McCain, though, is that he's TOO OLD. He would have been what the country needed in 2000, but if he gets the nomination and wins the election, he'll be 72 years-old. As it stands he looks like his health is beginning to fail him; whether that's really the case, I don't know.

Personally, I think Huckabee is the best choice for the Republicans, although his name is somewhat unpresidential.

As for the Democrats, Obama should get it. Clinton is just sooooo dull and lacking in charisma it's not funny. And that forced-sobby confessional talk she gave the other day has weakness written all over it.

In reality, no candidate from either of these parties should be elected. American two-party politics is a joke. It's time for a change. Real change. Not the kind of change that media and spindoctors make to look real. Because as it stands the electoral process is just a means of assuring the perpetuation of the status quo.

[BubberMiley]

Obama and Edwards aren't on the ballot there because Michigan's primary isn't going to count because it was pushed up. Against the rules, evidently. So I'm guessing there will be a pretty low voter turnout in Michigan.

There is a wide consensus that there is no way the party will disallow Michigan's delegates from voting at convention time. It's true that right now they say they will, but in the end those votes will count.

[BubberMiley]

Personally, I think Huckabee is the best choice for the Republicans, although his name is somewhat unpresidential.

He's the best choice for America too, because as David Frum said on the Daily Show last night, Huckabee is a "suicide pill." Nothing would assure a Democrat victory better than having a creationist evangelical from the South on the ticket.

Edited January 9, 2008 by BubberMiley

[BubberMiley]

Could it be that the media fudged the poll numbers to sway the vote re Obama/Hilary?

Maybe the tears resonated with voters, making her appear more human.

[kengs333]

He's the best choice for America too, because as David Frum said on the Daily Show last night, Huckabee is a "suicide pill." Nothing would assure a Democrat victory better than having a creationist evangelical from the South on the ticket.

First off, who cares what David Frum thinks? It's obvious why he thinks that way, so what makes his opinions legitimate in this matter? I doubt his creationist beliefs would come into play in his presidential decision-making, just like religious beliefs wouldn't be much of a factor for Rudy or McCain (who happens to be a Baptist) or who ever gets in. Hate to tell you, there are a lot of "creationist evangelicals" out there, or people who simply want a more seemingly honest, Christian person as president.